The Fog Blog

Is It Really All about PRICE? Or does CONDITION Play a Part???

Rebecca White (Keller Williams San Francisco Properties) — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 03:38:47 -0500

If you recall--and you probably don't--I have a short sale listing in Richmond. Whereas my clients paid $500,000 for this adorable bungalow, made significant improvements, invested their life savings, and this home should have been worth $550-600,000; I had to list it at a fraction of what should have been its' value: $350,000--to no avail. A few months later, I dropped the price to $325,000--still no takers.

After doing a new CMA, I dropped the price drastically to $250,000-still above the comps--as this is a special property.

Amazingly enough-lots of interest-and FOUR offers. Hmmm, why? Yes, it is priced well, but there are houses selling and listed for $150,000; 100,000 and even less! Why is my listing selling for close to the list price? Because it is still-unlike almost everything else nearby-owner-occupied!!!

Banks that are kicking homeowners out are doing a disservice. A vacant house is an invitation to criminals, drug-users, vandals and vagrants--and a major decrease in value!!

Thus, I have two point here: one-a well-priced home will sell, but condition-or value-trumps a dump and two-lenders, PLEASE let people stay in their homes as it will maintain the value better and keep the home from being trashed (more on this later).

It Really is tough to be a Realtor Today or Karma, please kick in!

Rebecca White (Keller Williams San Francisco Properties) — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 03:12:12 -0500

Whereas it is a mixture of pride and ego that I have intermittently been considered "creative", I am flattered that the outlet that is active rain allows me not only to rant and ramble-but to be recognized for doing so--thank-you active rain!!!

Which brings me to the real meat of my post: I am sad. I might be getting a new listing and I am ambivalent about it. Why? I am currently working on three listings in East Oakland-all three are a grand total of less than $800,000. I ran into a former colleague over the weekend. She told me that someone walked in to her new office and was plunking down $3 million for a condo. With transactions in the $200's and $300's, I couldn't even conceive how many it would take to achieve that lofty level.

I recall a decade ago in Oregon when some agents wouldn't work with clients spending less than $300 or 350 thousand. I sold lots and condos in the $50-70,000 range and was proud to sell one house for around $250,000 to attain the distinction of "MMDP" (multi-million dollar producer-in the late 90's this was $3 million in volume in the Portland area).

As usual, I digress. Why am I concerned about taking a listing around $100,000? Because I won't make very much money? No. Because it could be hard to sell? Maybe-but then I pride myself on my marketing so I am reasonably confident that I can sell this house. It is probably one of two reasons. One, that a wonderful old lady lived in this house forever, couldn't afford to fix it up much-other than a new roof-and her entire life has dwindled to less than $100,000 (net). The second reason is even more tragic. This elderly woman wanted to do the right thing and leave her only asset to another delightful woman who cared for her. But the deceased woman changed bank accounts and her insurance company canceled her policy. And the recipient of this largesse is terminally ill and stands to benefit very little other than a whole lot of aggravation. (And owes more than half the "value" of the home to medical bills and an attorney-the attorney will make more than my potential commission.)

So, to answer my own dilemma, will I take this listing, if offered? Yes. But, will I feel good about it? I am not sure. Yes, I want the heir to have her shekels and enjoy her remaining days but I am pissed off that it is not enough for her to enjoy some comfort and reward for her caretaking and inconvenience.

And more than anything, I really don't know who benefits from this screwed up economy as I see many people "losing" in this situation.

Thankfully, I believe in karma and am optimistic about being "rewarded" later.

Too Late for Teddy

Rebecca White (Keller Williams San Francisco Properties) — Mon, 25 Aug 2008 23:53:29 -0500

I have been meaning to blog about my new listing as I was really excited about it: a fixer in San Francisco, with a view of the Bay, over 1000 square feet and a price tag of $450,000.

Despite posting after midnight, I woke up the next morning to two messages from agents wanting to show my new listing. I had to make a special trip to put a lock-box on so that it could be shown.

Before I could hold the house open, we received a bona fide, over asking, offer. Just after we ratified the first offer, we received a second offer—also over asking (but not quite as high). A few days later, yet another offer. Days later, I was still receiving phone calls. These finally subsided once the property showed as contingent.

The moral of all this: if a property is priced well, in a good location and marketed; it will sell! And because I have the good fortune of having a listing in one of the world’s most beautiful cities, my listing received multiple offers—all over asking! Don’t worry, I am not bragging, I am just eternally grateful to the colleague who referred these clients to me. Hooray for networking relationships—they DO work. And I am continually working to dispel any annoying rumors about our market being bad. Oh say it isn’t so. I just did.

P.S. My blog title refers to the street of my listing. More info here just in case... www.391Teddy.com

Market Still Good in SF--and I got the Stats to Prove It!!

Rebecca White (Keller Williams San Francisco Properties) — Mon, 25 Aug 2008 23:37:03 -0500

I always find it interesting when everyone assumes that the market downturn applies equally to all parts of San Francisco—or even to San Francisco at all--and that our market is bad.

Here are some recent stats from our local RE association for July, ’08. to dispel any notions of such nonsense.

Yes, our median is price is down—but it is still $850,000—a mere drop of 4% since last July.

Yes, our days on the market have increased—and it seems to be a whopping 21.9%--but this is only 39 days (compared to 32 last year)—still less than six weeks!!

So it is hard not to chuckle when I receive a very sincere email from someone wanting to buy real estate in San Francisco for less than $200,000. The even more amazing part of this is that of the 1365 residences on the market, there are actually THREE under $200,000. Yes, they are in Hunter’s Point or the Bayview, nonetheless, such anomalies do exist. Who woulda thunk?

Real Estate Statistics: 94608, OAKLAND

Rebecca White (Keller Williams San Francisco Properties) — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 19:42:24 -0500

I have worked in this zip code for a few years now and I love the location on the Emeryville border with the close proximity to San Francisco.

I had a recent listing that sold quickly (less than 3 weeks), with multiple offers and over asking.

My current listing--a block away--is 200 square feet larger, has a full basement, an exterior building, a half bath and off-street parking. All this for less than $20,000 more than my previous listing. (See for yourself: www.1058-54.com )

So I checked the stats to see what might behappening in this great neighborhood. The sold houses have a median price less than the active listings. The pending sales have the lowest average/median prices of all.

There is a lot of inventory. And it looks as if prices are coming down-not a good thing when we are at the upper end of the list prices and competing with short sales and REOs (more on this later).

94608 Area (as of July 17, 2008)

ACTIVE LISTINGS

LIST PRICE:

SOLD PRICE:

DOM:

HIGH	LOW	AVERAGE	MEDIAN	TOTAL PRICE	LISTING COUNT
$845,500	$89,900	$336,583	$309,000	$24,907,199	74
$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	74
304	1	74	48

PENDING SALES

LIST PRICE:

SOLD PRICE:

DOM:

HIGH	LOW	AVERAGE	MEDIAN	TOTAL PRICE	LISTING COUNT
$549,000	$119,900	$272,430	$260,400	$10,352,350	38
$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	38
152	0	37	24

2008 SALES

LIST PRICE:

SOLD PRICE:

DOM:

HIGH	LOW	AVERAGE	MEDIAN	TOTAL PRICE	LISTING COUNT
$749,000	$105,000	$329,083	$302,450	$15,137,818	46
$710,000	$125,000	$319,893	$300,500	$14,715,100	46
381	3	54	22

JANUARY-MARCH 2008

LIST PRICE:

SOLD PRICE:

DOM:

HIGH	LOW	AVERAGE	MEDIAN	TOTAL PRICE	LISTING COUNT
$450,000	$105,000	$295,773	$289,900	$5,028,151	17
$475,000	$125,000	$283,617	$290,000	$4,821,500	17
327	4	70	33

APRIL-JUNE 2008

LIST PRICE:

SOLD PRICE:

DOM:

HIGH	LOW	AVERAGE	MEDIAN	TOTAL PRICE	LISTING COUNT
$549,990	$149,900	$329,870	$305,000	$8,246,767	25
$529,000	$149,900	$323,304	$300,000	$8,082,600	25
381	3	46	15

46 SALES over 6.55 months is an average of 7.02 sales per month.

74 ACTIVE LISTINGS divided by an average of 7.02 (sales/month) yields a 10.54-month supply of inventory (with no new listings).

Is it My Imagination or Are There Really Motivated BUYERS Out There? And New VOICE Search

Rebecca White (Keller Williams San Francisco Properties) — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 00:22:19 -0500

Currently I have two listings in the East Bay: one a short sale and one not. Despite the fact that each has competition in terms of price and nearby listings, I have received sign calls and had my Open Houses well attended.

Today--thanks to a sign call last week and one today--I showed both of them. The latter (new) client told me that he had called several other agents and was either unable to reach someone or those he did reach didn't have the correct showing information for him.

So my recent experience leads me to believe that people are out looking!! (Or maybe my RED signs--I'm a Keller Williams agent--really stick out?)

So I ask my fellow agents, what's up with this? I have a personalized, toll-free number on my custom-made signs. I am dumbfounded that other agents don't. IMHO, you are really missing out.

Two caveats--

I did call on a sign for Red Bell out of Salt Lake City and the answering service gal was able to tell me how to get in a property. This was impressive on a late Saturday afternoon.

And the East Bay Regional Data people are now going to have voice search. How awesome is that? I will be able to drive by a sign, call a number, plug in the address and find out the following information:

"VoiceSearch will tell you MLS #, Address, Listing Status, Property Class, List Price, number of bedrooms and bathroom and square footage of the property."

I am amazed and looking forward to testing this technology the next day or two when I am out in "the field"!!

P.S. My listings: www.951-35.com and www.1068-54.com

A Tale of Two Cities Applies to Oakland as Well as SF

Rebecca White (Keller Williams San Francisco Properties) — Sun, 22 Jun 2008 01:01:27 -0500

I was reading an article in The San Francisco Chronicle recently (belatedly, the date was January 6, 2008, but the info remains relevant) by Carol Llloyd. In her "Surreal Estate" column, she wrote an article entitled "New real estate year starts with a tale of San Francisco's two cities" and went on to elucidate the differences between the north end and downtown areas of San Francisco and contrasted them with some of the southern neighborhoods such as Mission Terrace Bayview and the Excelsior. She talked about how robust the market is in the northern and central regions and how stagnant it is in the southern neighborhoods.

I have long maintained that SF is a neighborhood-by-neighborhood market and it was nice to be backed up in black and white.

What is interesting to me is that this anomaly-or lack of uniformity-applies to other parts of the Bay Area as well. I have heard this is the case in San Jose, the Peninsula (Daly City is really hurting for example) and even Marin (the Canal in San Rafael).

I don't have first-hand knowledge of all of these areas but I have been spending more time in Oakland lately. East Oakland is its own little world; some of my clients won't even venture there. Yet there are other niche neighborhoods-such as the Emeryville border-where my newest listing is www.1058-54.com that seem somewhat immune.

My last listing in this area (one block away) had three offers all over asking in less than three weeks. There are some REOs within a few blocks of my new listing-but even at $100,000 less-they still pale in comparison!

And the good part is that my clients have priced their home at the same price they paid less than two years ago. I am optimistic that-like my recent short sale listing a block away-it will go for over asking as it is just so darn adorable!

If you're in the area tomorrow (North Oakland/Emeryville border), come by to take a look and enjoy a cookie!

This is a great neighborhood of long-time residents and first-time buyers and I am proud to have listed such a great property.

I can only hope to say the same thing about East Oakland someday

My OPEN HOUSE In Richmond Today OR Do People REALLY Know About Short Sales?

Rebecca White (Keller Williams San Francisco Properties) — Mon, 09 Jun 2008 01:32:46 -0500

I'm still trying to figure out the interest or urgency of the people who attended my Open House of my "new" listing in Richmond. (I say "new" because it has been on the market for a while but this was the first time I was able to hold the house open.) www.951-35.com

Many people asked if it were a short sale but whereas familiar with the term, didn't seem to know much beyond that. I have a short sale website <www.ShortSaleSanFrancisco.com> (and other domains) to educate people about short sales. These are prevalent and a great opportunity for buyers. For example, my listing was purchased several years ago for $500,000. It has been upgraded and improved by my clients. Ideally it should be worth $550,000 but I have it listed for a mere $350,000.

Is this "too good to be true"? Are people afraid of what they don't understand? Or are there more desperate sellers out there--with no money invested in their property--who aren't losing their life savings--who will walk away and stick the bank with an even greater loss? Are my clients competing with these people?

Or even worse, are people waiting for the bottom? I HATE THIS!!! If one can afford to buy and something is a good deal, why are buyers holding out for that needle in a haystack of a steal?

Whereas I have a number of listings--about 60% short sales--I also work with buyers. Many of whom seem unmotivated to buy, aren't in a hurry but want to see property--searching for that perfect one--which we all know doesn't exist.

No one has the answer, we all have opinions. Just for me, much of what I am dealing with right now is neither logical nor sensible.

$450,000 Victorian Gingerbread NOT on MLS

Rebecca White (Keller Williams San Francisco Properties) — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 04:43:23 -0500

I've got the cutest new listing in North Oakland on the Emeryville border. It won't even be on the MLS until next week. First open will be in two weeks.

In the meantime, it has great period details such as hardwood floors, 12-foot ceilings, medallions and glass doorknobs.

All this for the same price it was purchased for a year-and-a-half ago: $450,000! Not technically a short sale but close.

Facing Foreclosure? You Have OPTIONS!!

Rebecca White (Keller Williams San Francisco Properties) — Sun, 11 May 2008 02:43:23 -0500

As the largest number of adjustable mortgages in history are adjusting this year, the American dream may no longer be affordable as payments become a nightmare.

It is certainly no one's fault that Bay Area real estate is no longer sky-rocketing out of control. Instead, some areas are in a dangerous price free fall. As it doesn't do any good to point fingers, why bother?

I think that it is sad that people who bought into the frenzied froth of the market 2-3 years ago-some with their life savings-and some with no money-stand to lose: their down payment, their Pyrrhic equity, their good (or fair) credit and, perhaps, some self-esteem, as well as the roof over their loved ones' heads.

I am here to tell you that you do have options. Some banks will allow you to not make payments for 6 months until you can get back on your feet or sell your property. Some may restructure your loan. Some may accept a short sale (where the amount that they take is less than what you owe). (See my website, www.ShortSaleSanFrancisco.com for more information on short sales.)

The last resorts are bankruptcy and/or foreclosure. Avoid either of these financial suicides by any means possible.

If a short sale is effected, you might be able to repair your credit in 2-3 years and get back on track to home ownership. As homeowners statistically have considerably more wealth than non-homeowners, by all means stay in the saddle now or get back on the horse as soon as you can.

The Portola District: Ponderings and Statistics for 2007 and 2008

Rebecca White (Keller Williams San Francisco Properties) — Sun, 11 May 2008 01:05:06 -0500

As I am listing a home in University Heights, I have been analyzing Portola recently and can share the following statistics with you. (If you'd like to see the pretty colored charts, email me and I'll send them to you.)

Last year, there were a total of 136 listings of single-family residences.. (I say listings as opposed to individual properties as one home alone was withdrawn FIVE times!)

In 2007, over half of these 136 properties, 71, or 52.2% SOLD; approximately 43% were withdrawn or expired; 3% are still active (averaging 200 days on the market and a median price nearly $200,000 higher than the median price of those that sold) and 2.2% are pending.

This is an average of 6 sales per month and 55 days on market.

Let me give you some numbers for 2008. I can share my thoughts and then you may draw your own conclusions...

So far in 2008, there are 51 houses in all statuses (active, contingent, expired, inactive, pending and sold). Thus as far as overall activity, this is close to 2007. (2007: 136 listings divided by 12 months is 11.33 per month of some type of listing. 2008: 51 divided by 4 1/3 months equals 11.86 listings of different types per month.)

As I mentioned, in 2007, there were 71 sales or about 6 per month. So far in 2008, there have been 11 sales are about 2 1/2 per month. If I'm optimistic and add the contingent (1) and pending sales (4) in for a total of 16 transactions this year, divided by 4 1/3 months, that yields almost 4 per month--either way, the sales activity is behind last year's.

My chart shows 43% active, 22% sold, 27% other and 8% pending.

What does all this mean? Are sales down because there is less inventory? After all, there are half as many sales so far this year as there are listings and depending on how one looks at it, a 5 1/2 to 8 month supply of inventory--with no new listings.

What concerns me somewhat about this area is that there are half a dozen short sales.

As the median price is down from $722,000 last year to $573,000 this year and the median days on market have increased 33% (from 55 to 73); I'd say that there is some good opportunity here to buy--in my opinion--in Portola. The people whom I know who live there have lived there for 30 years and love their neighborhood. Of course, some streets are more desirable than others.

As far as selling, I am very optimistic about my listing as it's on a desirable street and doesn't have a lot of comparable competition. With new paint and (unwarranted rooms) in the lower level, it will sell because it is in good condition and has a great location.

A few last thoughts...
1) One of my clients moved TO the Portola District as that's where she grew up and wanted to live and raise her family.
2) Other people hate San Bruno as there isn't any decent shopping.
3) I still don't know an easy way back to the freeway. :)

SHORT SALE In Richmond--ONLY $350,000

Rebecca White (Keller Williams San Francisco Properties) — Sat, 26 Apr 2008 20:18:51 -0500

I have some clients who were successful in a multiple bidding situation 3 years ago and paid $500,000 for an adorable bungalow. It has 2 bedrooms, formal dining and hardwood floors in the main house and sits on a 6500 square foot lot that has a carport, tool shed, and is fully fenced. It also has a guest house/studio/workshop (unwarranted) with a full bath and tank-less hot water heater.

When we first spoke about my marketing the property for them, I was optimistic that it should be worth $525,000 to $550,000 solely based on the work they had done--not even taking into account any appreciation!

Sadly, there are over 200 homes for sale in their zip code (94805) and they have to sell as one lost employment and the other's was cut back. This nearly 1000 sq ft home plus everything already mentioned is currently listed as a SHORT SALE for only $350,000. I will be holding it open Sunday, May 4, so feel free to come by, eat a cookie, and take a look at it!!! Or check out the website for more info and photos. www.951-35.com

San Francisco Real Estate Stats--March This Year vs. Last Year

Rebecca White (Keller Williams San Francisco Properties) — Sat, 26 Apr 2008 19:45:10 -0500

I just got an email from my title company rep and wanted to share some of my ponderings on this with you.

First of all, San Francisco is a very diverse market and very much a neighborhood-by-neighborhood market. The info I have is by districts which is still very general. We only have 10 MLS districts in The City so this info is not as neighborhood-specific as it could be. (These numbers are single-family residences only.)

The first item that I found interesting was the days on market. In half the districts, this number was up and in half, the number was down. District 10 (Outer Mission, Crocker Amazon, Vis Valley, Bayview, Hunter's Point, Excelsior, etc.) had the highest DOM (days on market) at 67. District 3 (SW Area) was not too far behind with 61 DOM and District 7 (Pac Hts, Presidio etc.) only had one nearly $5 million sale that took 54 days.

The rest of the districts had average market times ranging from 4-6 weeks. Compared to most of the country and other parts of California and the Bay Area, this is a short amount of time.

Conclusion, properties priced correctly sell quickly as these are averages. Case in point, I showed some clients a vintage Inner Richmond house that was supposed to be on tour Tuesday and open again this weekend. When I checked on disclosures Tuesday--two days after we saw it--the property had already received SEVEN pre-emptive offers and presumably went 20% over asking (which was $950,000 for a fixer!)!

As far as number of sales, in every district the number of sales was nearly the same as a year ago or down; some by a lot such as District 10 which was down 40% (45 sales in March 2007 and 27 sales March 2008) and District 7 which was down 90% (10 sales lat year vs. one this March). A few districts were off by 25-33% and some by only 1 or 2 sales.

I think that the lower number of sales in most districts (northern SF) has to do with a lack of inventory. In some areas--where first-time buyers might be able to afford something--it's probably due to a lack of qualified buyers. Not that people don't want to buy, just the FICO requirements are more stringent (I have ranted on this in the past).

The last item that Nachelle had tracked (and SFAR tracks this as well) was the median selling price. Again, this was split 50/50 among the 10 districts. Districts 1 (Richmond, etc.) and 5 (Noe, Glen Park, Haight Ashbury, etc.) had--for the number of sales (14 and 29 respectively)--the highest median increases of close to half a million each! Many of the districts that went down in median price only did so slightly, 1-2%; and only Districts 3 and 10 (the far southern edges) had dramatic decreases IMHO. The median price in District 3 dropped 23% to $566,000 and 20% in District 10 to $550,000.

This means that some of our neighborhoods have median prices below $600,000 and a single-family home can be had for the same price as a one-bedroom condo or TIC in South Beach or the North End.

May I reiterate, with interest rates low, it is an excellent time to buy and San Francisco is a perennially strong market.

Short Sales and REOs in San Francisco

Rebecca White (Keller Williams San Francisco Properties) — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 03:37:45 -0500

I have been studying pre-foreclosure and foreclosure properties for over a year now and have been tracking--on an informal basis-the numbers of short sales (pre-foreclosures) and REOs (foreclosures) for a while. A few days ago, I finally started to put this information into an excel format so that I can be more scientific about tracking these data.

Interestingly enough, the number of REOs has and continues to be negligible at best. Very few properties make it to the "courthouse steps" and those that do are neither desirable nor good deals (IMHO).

REOs (as of 4/21/08) SFRs--6, condos--3, 2-4 units-1

Short sales are a different story. When I first started noticing them on our MLS, there were around 30-40. This number has steadily grown each month to where we currently have over 100 short sale listings in San Francisco.

Short Sales (as of 4/21/08) SFRs--86, condos--17, 2-4 units-9

For more information check out my website: http://www.shortsalesanfrancisco.com/ as well as my newest short sale listing for only $350,000! http://www.951-35.com/

Upside Down and Wanna Stay Put?

Rebecca White (Keller Williams San Francisco Properties) — Mon, 07 Apr 2008 03:14:17 -0500

As an active blogger and networker, I am frequently contacted by people because of my knowledge of and experience with short sales (pre-foreclosures) and potential REOs (foreclosures).

I have been communicating for a few weeks now with a lender/real estate agent/investor who thinks similar to me in many regards.

It is well known that many of you who have ARMs and your rate has/is/will be adjusted/adjusting would like to if at all possible, KEEP YOUR HOME. Supposedly 80% of home-owners who have higher mortgage payments would like to keep their homes. Many investors are approaching you and trying to get a good deal--at your expense--the moment the NOD (notice of default) is filed.

My new colleague's idea is simple. He wants to help you keep your home by doing some creative financing and if you can't, then I would assist with a short sale.

So I am curious, is there really a demand for people who would rather work with ethical, licensed real estate agents who are seriously committed to helping you? Or would you rather take your chances with an unscrupulous investor who only has his interests in mind?

Let me know if you really want to keep your home and I will put you in touch with my colleague. And if he is unable to assist you, I will help you out of your situation by effecting a short sale and you can get on with your life without the embarrassment or financial ruin of foreclosure or bankruptcy.

For more info or to contact me, start here: www.SFBayShortSales.com

A Great Place to Leave Your Heart in San Francisco!

Rebecca White (Keller Williams San Francisco Properties) — Tue, 01 Apr 2008 01:40:03 -0500

Back to my side of the Bay for a bit...

First of all, I want to reiterate past blog posts that San Francisco is still an awesome market! Two of my colleagues had a listing and got over a dozen offers. Not the best location in Visitacion Valley, not the best condition, but they priced it correctly, got multiple offers and over asking! So much for these nay-sayers who pontificate that we are in a slump--NOT SO in SF.

Back to my title.... I made a foray into the local real estate market last year and the jury is still out as to whether this has been a mistake or not? I bought that wonderfully uniquely San Francisco form of ownership called a TIC. Sounds good in theory, but if people change their minds or don't want to honor the agreement; one doesn't have a whole lot of options.

So after an extensive remodel--still in progress--I will be selling my pied-a-terre in Nob Hill. It has two bedrooms and will have two bathrooms, a new kitchen, a heat source, new electrical (up-to-code), etc. etc. Theoretically my "interest" will be ready for condo-conversion (after $100K, it should) and the group is undergoing the necessary steps to do individual financing. It has a view of the Pyramid even! FREE laundry and storage. Sounds perfect, you might think, but not so. Drawbacks are no parking, small (around 850 sq feet) and, that double-edged sword--it is a TIC!

Once the remodeling is complete and I learn how to post pretty pictures, you will see it. In the meantime, you can see what it used to look like here... http://www.rebeccarealtor.com/property.asp?id_property=90482

For more info, call or email me or post a comment here! (415-412-1977 or Rebecca@RebeccaRealtor.com )

P.S. Two of the other interests were recently appraised for over $800K. I might break even at $650,000. Coming soon--and you'll hear about it here second (after my Keller Williams Realty office).

OAKLAND: 94621 Stats and Musings or Where is Everybody or Anybody?

Rebecca White (Keller Williams San Francisco Properties) — Sun, 30 Mar 2008 02:14:47 -0500

I was doing some research for a client and thought that I would share some of my findings here. I am only looking at a small segment of the market--one zip code in Oakland: 94621--and at two-bedroom, one-bath single-family homes. In all of 2007, 49 2-BR, 1-bath homes sold in this zip code ranging from a low of $180,000 to a high of $485,000 (quite a range).

LIST PRICE:

SOLD PRICE:

DOM:

HIGH	LOW	AVERAGE	MEDIAN	TOTAL PRICE	LISTING COUNT
$484,950	$188,000	$335,840	$329,000	$16,456,188	49
$485,000	$180,000	$322,867	$320,000	$15,820,525	49
132	0	44	32

What is happening today? So far only five homes have sold but 113 are on the market.

LIST PRICE:

SOLD PRICE:

DOM:

HIGH	LOW	AVERAGE	MEDIAN	TOTAL PRICE	LISTING COUNT
$324,900	$177,000	$236,140	$229,000	$1,180,700	5
$295,000	$157,000	$216,400	$195,000	$1,082,000	5
98	17	45	39

The median price is barely 61% of what it was last year. Why so dramatic a change in a short amount of time?

If 5 houses sold (closed) the first quarter of 2008 and that rate continues, we could anticipate 20 sales this year or 41% of the number of sales last year. And even if NO MORE HOMES hit the market, there is a 5 1/2 year supply of inventory!

Some of the drops in price--from prior sales--are even more amazing.

What I am wondering is what has happened to all of these former homeowners? 38 of these are short sales and 8 are REOs (foreclosures). So over 40% of the current listings indicate that someone has lost or will be losing their home. Where are these people going to? And where are the new first-time buyers for whom these houses would be extremely affordable?

If despite interest rates and prices being LOW, people are unable to buy homes, then maybe we need to look at what it takes to qualify to buy a home. Some lenders are now requiring 700 FICOs. Is someone with a 620 FICO a bad person or a poor risk? Didn't used to be, but sure seems that way now.

Or maybe we need to look at more creative financing. Perhaps getting the seller involved in a seller carry-back? Or other incentives like paying the property taxes for a year?

I don't have all the answers. I am curious as to what others think. I think that it is sad that people are losing their homes and that many people who would really like to buy a home are unable to do so. Maybe when Hillary and/or Barack get to the White House, things will change. The idiot there now sure isn't helping matters despite his petty posturing and pablum.

(Listing and sales information taken from East Bay Regional Data, Inc.)

East (Oakland) vs. West: Some Interesting REO (Foreclosure) Stats

Rebecca White (Keller Williams San Francisco Properties) — Mon, 24 Mar 2008 23:26:31 -0500

Having half my business in the East Bay, I am a member of the Oakland Association of Realtors. Whereas I live in San Francisco, I enjoy working in parts of Oakland as well as it is more affordable for many of the first-time buyers with whom I work.

As I have mentioned before, there are very few REOs (foreclosed or bank-owned properties) in San Francisco. Across the Bay, it's a different story and an excellent opportunity for investors!

I'm partial to North and West Oakland near Emeryville and Berkeley. Currently there are half a dozen 2-BR detached houses for sale $350,000 or less that are foreclosures. (one is very close to my short sale listing and available for nearly $100,000 LESS!)

East Oakland is a different story with more than 50 foreclosed homes available at $300,000 or less. I saw a cute one today (it was red like Keller Williams :) ) and it was less than $150,000! It had sold previously (2 years ago) for $360,000!!

There are some excellent deals in the East Bay. You don't have to go to Stockton or Modesto to pick up a good deal on an investment property.

Over Your Head in Adjustable Mortgage Payments? I CAN HELP!!

Rebecca White (Keller Williams San Francisco Properties) — Mon, 24 Mar 2008 22:57:36 -0500

Hello People Who Need Help,

I want to share a recent success story with you. On the first of February, I listed an adorable bungalow on the Oakland/Emeryville border. Immediately I received an offer over the list price. As my clients were having a baby and I was at a convention for a few days, we decided to wait and set an offer date after I could hold two open houses. Voila! A total of three offers--all over asking.

It took some time to get the short sale package together for the lender but when we did, it was amazing! I got it accepted the first go-round with NO counter-offer. Now we're waiting for the buyers' loan approval and will close in two weeks.

My sellers are very happy and sent the sweetest email to me calling me a "Godsend". They were on the brink of foreclosure and I saved them from that disastrous hit on their credit score. With your cooperation, I can do the same for you.

Check out my website: www.SFBayShortSales.com for more info about me and the pre-foreclosure process.

Interesting SF Real Estate Stats

Rebecca White (Keller Williams San Francisco Properties) — Mon, 25 Feb 2008 13:19:49 -0600

I was playing around the MLS today as I had someone looking in the $500-700,000 range. As our median price is over $800,000, I thought that it would be interesting to see how many homes were in this range. There are currently 214 homes (single-family residences) for sale at $700,00 and under. This is 42% of the available inventory.

The total number of SFR's for sale in San Francisco is 505. Of these, only a handful are REO's (foreclosures). Even with the inclusion of all property types, there are less than a dozen REO's in San Francisco.

Short sales are a diffent story. We currently have over 80 total short sale listings. (For more information on both REO's and short sales, please visit my website: www.ShortSaleSanFrancisco.com )

There are 66 SFR's (or 13% of the inventory)--mostly in Districts 3 and 10--the southern part of the City; 14 condo/TIC short sale listings--mostly in District 9 (SOMA and South Beach) and four 2-4 unit buildings.

As many short sales are competitively priced, generally 5-10% below market, this represents a good opportunity to buy real estate in San Francisco. Visit either of my websites www.ShortSaleSanFrancisco.com or www.RebeccaRealtor.com to contact me or call me directly at 415-412-1977 for more information.

I Should Leave Town More Often

Rebecca White (Keller Williams San Francisco Properties) — Sun, 10 Feb 2008 23:03:41 -0600

I am currently attending our annual Keller Williams Convention. It is my first trip to Atlanta, Georgia. It seems like a fun city, but I am so busy attending classes, it's hard to ascertain.

The good news is that most everyone who speaks is positive about the real estate market. Believe it or not, 2007 was the 5th best year in real estate history--not bad! Yes, we may have some time to go until the overall economy improves, but not all of the country is bad. Real estate is a very regional--in fact in San Francisco, a neighborhood--market. According to what I heard today, prices in SF (I forget if it was median or average) went up 9% last year. This is not the whopping double digits we experienced a few yeas ago, but a nice normal amount.

So are prices going up everywhere? NO. Are we lucky to be in San Francisco that is still so desirable that we still have moderate (high compared to elsewhere) appreciation? Absolutely YES!!!!

What you may be pondering, is now a good time to buy? My perennial and emphatic response is: "YES"!!! Low rates, steady prices, still some multiple bids over asking, but all in all, a great time to buy. If you are a little adventuresome, I have a great short sale listing in Oakland/Emeryville--check it out... www.1051-53.com

Gotta go learn some more tomorrow. I will be back to share other tidbits as I glean them.

Is Anyone Else Confused??? Or Angry with Difficulty in Qualifying for Loans?

Rebecca White (Keller Williams San Francisco Properties) — Mon, 17 Dec 2007 14:24:07 -0600

Theoretically interest rates were lowered to stimuate the economy. IMHO, the wrong "number" is being lowered. It used to be pretty much anyone with a 600+ FICO could get a loan. Now I can understand that people with FICOs way below 600 having difficulty getting a loan and they definitely shouldn't be getting 100% financing. Anyone who hasn't been able to save 5% (or have other assets or excellent credit) doesn't have what it takes to make a huge mortgage payment. In the Bay Area, most mortgage payments create huge payment shock. But I digress...

I think that people in the mid-600--maybe even low 600--FICO score range should be able to get loans--and not at "usurious" rates of 8% or more. But a lender friend of mine says that the investors don't want to buy them. I have a friend going through a re-fi for a measly $50K cash out and it's a nightmare. Despite never being late on a mortage payment on this property for 10 years and, whereas trying for 80% LTV, was willing to go 70%. One FICO is 683, another is 677 and the lender insists on 680! What happened to 660 being good?

Many good people have made 1-2 mistakes--or had inaccurate info put into their credit file--and it's difficult to straighten out. I know, I've tried. It's we who have to prove our innocence not they who must prove our guilt. Contrary to the American judicial tradition, with FICO scores, Americans are guilty until proven innocent. It's a racket and I wish we could go back to a simpler time when a handshake and one's word meant something. Oh, the halcyon days of youth! What happened to trust and integrity???

I am Not Alone in NOT Believing All that I Hear & Read (& A Sad but True Story)

Rebecca White (Keller Williams San Francisco Properties) — Wed, 28 Nov 2007 19:34:21 -0600

They spoke about this at our morning business meeting today and one of our local title companies had sent this to us as well. Karen Ruero, Keller Williams San Francisco Properties, gave me permission to use this.

I find it very interesting that prominent people and publications are always giving people bad advice. Can you imagine where we would be today if we had listened to the pseudo-pundits?

This is why I am strongly encouraging all buyer to buy now--before interest rates and prices go up.

This reminds me of my best friend's father-in-law. He was in real estate decades ago and wanted to wait until prices came down before he bought a home. He turned 91 this year and never bought a home! Sadly, a few years ago, he and his wife were evicted from their home of several decades as the owners wanted to move in. I was so surprised as I thought that they owned the home as they maintained it so well. They now live in a small apartment in an area not conducive to her walking around safely as it is hilly and her eyesight is failing. It's also 2-3 towns away from my best friend and their three granddaughters when they used to be less than 2 miles away!

Can you imagine if they had bought their own home instead of paying someone else's mortgage? In the long run, almost everyone is better off owning than renting. Even if one doesn't have heirs, the security is priceless!

Check out San Francisco real estate via my website 24/7 www.RebeccaRealtor.com

Don't always believe the headlines you read!Here is a little proof that you can't always believe the headlines. Imagine if you purchased a home each of these years what your net worth would look like today.

"A home is where the bad investment is."

- San Francisco Examiner. 1996

"Financial planners agree that houses will continue to be a poor investment."

- Kiplinger's Personal Financial Magazine, 1993

"We're starting to go back to the time when you bought a home not for its potential moneymaking

abilities, but rather as a nesting spot."

- Los Angeles Times, 1993 (Note: 1993 was the absolute low-point for real estate values in

Los Angeles. Priced have sky-rocketed since.)

"Most economists agree...a home will become little more than a roof and a tax deduction,

certainly mot the lucrative investment it was...."

- Money Magazine, 1986

"If you are looking to buy, be careful. Rising home values are not a sure thing anymore."

- Miami Herald, 1985

"The era of easy profits in real estate may be drawing to a close." (Average price at the time:

$28,000)

- Money Magazine, 1981

"The goal of owning a home seems to be getting beyond the reach of more and more

Americans." (Average price at the time: $28,000)

- Business Week, 1969

"The prices of houses seem to have reached a plateau, and there is reasonable expectancy

that prices will decline."

- Time Magazine, 1947

Why are Buyers Still Afraid?

Rebecca White (Keller Williams San Francisco Properties) — Wed, 28 Nov 2007 01:56:47 -0600

I had "coffee" (for 2 1/2 hours!) with a great new lender, Zachary Hoffman, today. We talked about everything and then talked about it all again. He thinks--and much of what I hear and read concurs--that rates will go down again.

What are the buyers waiting for??? Interest rates are low, low, low! These are not the early 80's when rates were mid-double digits and a half or point (or two) increase during escrow could cause a deal to fall apart.

Prices--at least in San Francisco--are NOT coming down. In many places, despite the number of sales being down, the median price is still going up. In fact, according to our latest MLS stats, in some SF neighborhoods, the number of sales has increased since one year ago!!!! (This is comparing October '07 with '06.)

I overheard some moron at NAR advising other agents that now was not a good time to buy and everyone should wait until the market hits bottom and buy when rates/prices are on their way back up!! Why didn't he just take out a gun and shoot himself in the foot? How stupid can one be to advise others not to buy or sell real estate when that is what we do for a LIVING!!! I was too tired to slap him but the lunacy of his comments still irks me.

The best way to get through this traditionally slow period is to not buy into the BS that idiots like this are peddling. In San Francisco, we are not seeing the craziness of a few years back when buyers didn't have time to do inspections and waived all contingencies and bid tens and hundreds of thousands over the list price. Does this still happen? Yes--but not every single time.

My advice to agents--Get out there and do your job! My advice to buyers--take advantage of low interest rates and the market slowdown to buy that dream home that you couldn't afford back when interest rates were a point or two higher. If you need a great lender, I'll give you Zach's number. He can get rates below 6%!!

Attended NAR Convention, Comments on San Francisco Real Estate and a Sub-prime Loan Story

Rebecca White (Keller Williams San Francisco Properties) — Fri, 23 Nov 2007 19:16:24 -0600

It's always enjoyable and very educational to attend the National Association of Realtors Convention. This year it was in Las Vegas and after having attended two conventions (we also had our Keller Williams Realty "Family Reunion" there) in Vegas this year, I am so done with Vegas.

With 30,000 people attending, I think that I heard someone say that it was the largest one ever. This is somewhat disappointing that more of us weren't in New Orleans last year to help the economy there.

All of this rambling brings me to my point: the common thread that I heard from at least 3-4 of the speakers was to get a blog! So here I am--through with procrastinating and all set to share my unique perspective on the wonderful city that I call home: San Francisco.

I love San Francisco and the real estate market is very dynamic and exciting. I missed out on most of the "frenzy" in the early 2000's and am happy now to be in a "normalizing" market. Despite the fact that well-priced homes in nice areas in good condition sell quickly (21-30) days and over asking, we do have a higher than normal number of listings--a four-month supply--it just doesn't seem like it.

We do have quite a few neg am loans that are adjusting and it's sad that some people may be losing their homes. Many undeservedly, some deservedly. I had a listing recently where the lady had inherited the home from her mother, only owing $300,000 at the time. She re-financed a year later, taking $100,000 out in cash. The next year, she re-fi'd again taking out $125,000 in cash with an interest rate of 8.94%! With payments going up $1000 a month and going on disability, she went into default. She was extremely upset when I told her that she wouldn't get any money out of the house. I believe in being honest with my clients even if they don't want to hear it. Bottom line, she refused to allow me to show her home, was in total denial and the property was foreclosed on. IF someone needs my help to do a short sale, I am ready, willing and able to help. (See my website: http://www.shortsalesanfrancisco.com/ for more short sale info and help.) It sure beats getting foreclosed upon and the new buyer can sometimes get a real good deal. My advice to my colleagues is to walk away--as I did--if a seller won't cooperate with you. Many more people need our help.