The October 2009 statistics are in for VILAS COUNTY; one of two counties we serve. And, they're not showing much optimism as we head into another long winter.
The number of warranty deeds issued in the county last month was just 88; this was a -16% change from last year, which was already a far cry from the record years of 2005 and 2006.
Transfer tax paid was off -22%, continuing the trend of fewer, cheaper properties that are being sought by the buyers.
Year to date, that transfer tax figure is off -26%. This means that the properties that are selling are those that have lower pricing than years past, and that market values are also continuing to slide.
In only one month this year did we see any positive growth over the dismal statistics of 2008. The end must be in sight, because there's not much farther we can dig down ...
Our hope is that buyers will begin to gain confidence again, realizing that there are many excellent values on the market. Coupled with mortgage interest rates as low as 4.75%, the time to strike has never been better.
From the Register of Deeds office at Eagle River, WI the statistics are in for September's real estate activity in Vilas County. Unfortunately, they show a continuing downturn compared to 2008.
If there is good news, it's that the percentage of "lag" is not double-digit, which we have seen in all but one month this year.
For September 2009, the number of Warranty Deeds issued was 93, compared with 99 last year.
The Transfer Tax collected was down 9% from last year, again showing that the property that IS selling is generally lower-end, and those that have sold have seen their market values slip. In fact, as reported in an earlier blog post, our residential values are at "turn back the clock to 2004" status.
Year-to-date, the number of sales in the county is off -16% from 2008, and values of properties sold is -27%, or a net of -11% for this year alone.
Current activity is spotty; we're getting a few inquiries, showing properties, but few buyers are grabbing the pen.
We've had three early snows so far this fall; more on the way tomorrow! Peace.
OK, that was an old Barry Manilow song from the late '70's, and I suppose that really dates me. (Back to my radio DJ days at WOBT - Rhinelander WI)
It DOES occur to me that the best solution to our current malaise and concurrent lackluster real estate sales trending is an adjustment to that wonderful bio-computer connected to our body just above the neck.
Just a few short years ago, we were living in a noveau Victorian age. Y2K was a bust. The shock and awe of September 2001 had healed. People were traveling again. Buying things for their homes. Investing in commercial property and equipment. Enjoying their family and leisure time. Best of all, NOT WORRYING. Not living in fear. Not being resigned. The attitude was bright, optimistic, and eager.
Agreed, there was too much consumption. The SUV was king of the road, and why not? Gas was cheap, and people had money to keep the 40 gallon tanks filled. Box stores were being built at every intersection, selling all types of plastic goodies from overseas at bargain prices. Everybody had a cell phone, an iPod, and at least one computer. Nobody drank water from the faucet anymore, but bought their water in plastic sport bottles. And, people could get a mortgage for a castle if they could fog a mirror, or at least knew somebody that could.
For many months, we were told by various media outlets that all hell was about to break loose. The presidential election coverage began the minute that GW won the 2004 election, and the spin doctors spun and spun and spun until we were dizzy with useless info. Then, we kept getting injections of negative energy with economic forecasts that predicted certain doom. The war didn't help either, as we heard about brave Americans giving their all to fight half a world away.
Now, we're sitting in real estate offices around the country where 30% of our colleagues have left to wait tables or fix lawn mowers while we hope for some magic to "bring the buyers back".
Seems to me that somewhere between hiding in a fallout shelter and having 10 maxed-out credit cards in your wallet is a place of sustainable positive energy and renewable life. Where faith meets stewardship and responsibility. Where fear is vanquished and hope is lifted to the place of honor. In the 30's when "all we had to fear was fear itself" was recognized for the wisdom it is...we need to listen anew to those words and begin small steps to being UNAFRAID.
Gandhi is right. If we want the world to change, we must be that change first. My challenge (and one I submit to you for consideration) is to stop saying that "business is really in the tank". Who wants to buy property when nobody else is? Who wants to work with an agent who feels that the market has gone to hell?
Each day, somebody is buying and selling property. We need to celebrate those people. Perhaps be one of them ourselves, and go out on a limb and actually BUY a piece of property right now. You might be surprised at the fine value you'll get, and how that act will inspire others.
But, most of all, greet people with a smile, with a compliment, with words of hope. Lift up prayers for people who need the light turned back on in their lives. Send thank-you cards and "just thinking of you" messages VIA POSTAL MAIL and make somebody's day.
Make the adjustment and commitment to get yourself through the darkness and be the light that people turn to. Share that light, and one-by-one, we can get back to that place where our dreams come true.
You can tell that many of the summer tourists have returned to their homes "down south" - kids are back in school again, and the mosquitos and deer flies have gone away. We even had +34 degrees this week. Yep, Autumn is coming - a gorgeous time of year.
The July 2009 sales statistics for Vilas County are in - and for THE FIRST TIME IN ALMOST 24 MONTHS, there is a positive movement. For the month, an increase of +24% in sales volume (units), and a +16% increase in transfer tax paid. (That's the indicator of actual money that changed hands.) These figures are based on 2008 activity, and though they are far behind the record pace of 3 - 4 years ago, at least we're moving in a positive direction. This is the news we have been waiting for...now, we can just hope that we see a sustained trend.
In a related search of the MLS data for 1/1/2009 - 8/31/2009, there have been NO HOMES SOLD/CLOSED on the Manitowish Chain thus far in calendar 2009. To my recollection, this is a first. There are 57 homes for sale. Two vacant lots sold on that same 10 - lake chain this year.
Research in the $300K - $500K waterfront residential price range in the four communities in the Minocqua are shows that 9 have sold and closed in 2009 since April 1st. (there are 74 available) The average discount from the initial asking price to the final selling price was just over $99,000.00. By comparison, in 2006, the average discount in the same market strata was less than 10% in all cases.
It's a "new day" in our market, and we are working hard to bridge the expectations of sellers with the bargain hunting desires of the buyers. Now, we are seeing some upward movement in sales, at least in Vilas County. I expect a long, slow climb.
Yes, I haven't been "blog side" in a while - it's beacuse I have been quite busy working on several closings that have taken place in the past few weeks. This has been a welcome sign of an improving market, and certainly, a better year for our team than 2008.
County statistics still show that 2009 sales are behind 2008 year-to-date, but I believe that those numbers will improve as the year continues. These figures are the result of a painfully slow winter and spring season; only since about May 1st have we seen better traffic and more showings and offers.
Still, we are way off the pace that we had been accustomed to in the mid part of the decade. Prices and values continue to decline, albeit much less than in other parts of the country.
The sunset of the $8000 stimulus plan may help us pick up a few lower price point first time buyers before the end of the year, and recent "stability" in the stock market, coupled with better-than-anticipated economic news may move some buyers off the fence and into their recreation home or property.
The next 90 days is usually our peak selling season. We'll see if 2009 holds true to tradition.
For the first time in many months, it can finally be said that more homes sold last month in Vilas County, than for the same month in the previous year. The increase for June 2009 was slight (only +2%), but we'll take positive improvement any time. Perhaps we have seen the bottom after all.
The state transfer tax collected for the month was down -14%, which means that even though a few more homes were sold this year, the prices that the buyers have been willing to pay have been lower. Not necessarily an indication of a 14% drop in market value, but more a barometer of the PRICE RANGE of the homes that are moving.
Activity is getting stronger, but the buyers we're seeing are those looking for low-end priced properties, and this is pushing the transfer tax collection lower.
In the end, the lack of buyers in the mid-range price areas ($400K - $750K) will cause values to slip, as inventory in this segment remains robust.
Personally, my 2009 business is much better than last years. And, even though year-to-date sales in the county are off 25%, I'm seeing strong growth and much better buyer and showing activity. Let's hope it continues!
It's a PHENOMINAL time to buy property in Northern Wisconsin!
Sales statistics from the Greater Northwoods MLS through the month of June, 2009 showed 43 waterfront homes sold since the 1st of January of this year for Oneida County, and 44 for Vilas County. For the same period in 2005, (one of the peak years of real estate activity in the state), there were 119 sold in Oneida County, and 114 in Vilas. These are the two counties we serve, and we keep track of activity in the market here. We thought you’d like to know the latest statistics.
Average sale prices have dropped from the low 400ks to $328,738.00 in Oneida County, and $366,847.00 in Vilas.
While activity has been slowly improving over the last 10 weeks, there is still a large inventory of unsold property, which is causing extended marketing times, reduced supply-vs.-demand values in many sectors of the market, regular reductions of asking prices by sellers, and “low ball” offers from those buyers who have re-entered the market.
Still to be sold: 670 waterfront homes in Oneida County, and 716 in Vilas County.
We expect a continued slow and steady strengthening of sales, but also expect the market recovery—”rebound” in sold units, median sale price, and property values—to be one of a protracted time frame.
Sales statistics for the Greater Northwoods MLS showed 40 waterfront homes sold in Oneida County in 2009, through June 15th. For that same period in 2005, (one of the peak years of real estate activity in the state), there were 119 sold. The average sale price in 2009 is $328,738.00. There are 670 active waterfront residential listings on the market today in Oneida County.
Vilas County sales for the same period: 48 waterfront homes sold in 2009. (114 in 2005) The average sale price in 2009 is $366,847.00. There are 716 active waterfront residential listing on the market today in Vilas County.
While activity has been slowly getting stronger in the past two months, there is still a large inventory of unsold property, which is causing extended marketing times, reduced supply-vs-demand values in many sectors of the market, regular reduction of asking prices by sellers, and “low ball” offers from those buyers who have re-entered the market.
We expect a continued slow and steady strengthening of sales in the two counties we serve, but also expect the market recovery - “rebound” in sold units, median sale price, and property values - to be one of a protracted time frame.
Waterfront homes make up the bread-and-butter of our market here in the vacationland of Northern Wisconsin. To date, the sale of these homes has not warmed up; in fact, closed sales continue to slip from previous lows. We do have some indication of an increase in buyer traffic and new offers, but the statistics shown here represent the results of the past six months, a very slow time in this market.
Closed sales of residential waterfront homes for the past 6 months, being December 1st, 2008 through May 31st, 2009:
Vilas County: 31 units, with 27 of those under $500,000.00
Oneida County: 30 units, with 22 of those under $300,000.00
Average sale prices in Vilas county used to be in the low $400K's. This latest trending towards fewer and cheaper lake homes is indicative of the bargain hunting that is pervasive in the market.
There are 637 waterfront homes for sale as of this writing in Vilas County, and 605 in Oneida County. We need to see a much more aggressive position in the market to move this large inventory.
In my last posts, I mentioned that I thought the bottom had just passed us by. At least here in Northern WI. The way things have been going the past 2 - 3 weeks, that seems to be reality. At least, I'm hoping this isn't a short ride with a NEW bottom.
The phone has been ringing pretty steadily; I have several nice new listings; several buyer appointments for the next few weeks, and this morning, two nice offers came in on my listed properties. Just like May used to be. Well, almost ... but better than 2008 for sure.
It does seem like a localized situation, however, as many of my comrades are still saying that they are getting NO new business.
That's OK. I will be moving forward with positive energy, as always, and focusing on red carpet service for my clients and customers, and looking forward to the continuing upward swing of the "property pendulum".
Disclaimer: ActiveRain Corp. does not necessarily endorse the real estate agents, loan officers and brokers listed on this site. These real estate profiles, blogs and blog entries are provided here as a courtesy to our visitors to help them make an informed decision when buying or selling a house. ActiveRain Corp. takes no responsibility for the content in these profiles, that are written by the members of this community.
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