Rich 's Blog

Sunday Seattle Open House 7513 55th PL NE, Seattle, WA, 98115

Rich Hamman (RE/MAX Integrity) — Thu, 17 Apr 2008 19:44:50 -0500

A humble invitation to the swell gang here at AR, if you are in Seattle I'm doing Sun open 1 to 4 at 7513 55th PL NE. $899K but come anyway! Its a very contemporary pad with a nice lake view. Ill be serving up some chocolate chip cookies. See Seattle Craigs list add too.

For you NWMLS'rs MLS#28050557

Will April Showers Bring May Buyers?

Rich Hamman (RE/MAX Integrity) — Fri, 11 Apr 2008 21:34:15 -0500

WIll April Showers Bring May Buyers?

From my March report I promised some facts and figures and I'm here to deliver.

Before we go straight into the math end of this business, I want to take a moment to explain a couple of the terms.

First, I often use a metric called Absorption Rate. This is a common real estate industry term, expressed as a percentage, defined by the number of homes available for sale in a given area divided into the number of homes in that same area that are pending. A pending status means that the listed home is near closing and past a point of falling out of contract, with perhaps the exception of final lender approval. The absorption rate measures the local markets ability to "absorb" the homes that are for sale.

I calculate these rates for a number of areas each month. It leads me to pricing strategies for new listings, among other decision points.

The second term, or set of terms I use are, Balanced Market, Sellers Market and Buyers Market. A balanced market is defined by an absorption rate greater than 24% and less than 30%, a sweet spot that usually places buyers and sellers on an equal footing. A sellers market is defined as an absorption rate 30% or greater, a buyers market is a rate less than 25%.    Make sense? OK, lets move into the figures, I think you will be surprised.

Ill define the Seattle area by the borders of King County, which includes the cities of Seattle, Bellevue, Bothell, Woodinville, Kirkland, Redmond, Sammamish, Issaquah, Renton , and many more. Hence the name King I suppose.

Looking at a ten year period of absorption rates from 1998 until March of 2008 we find that since August of 2007 King County has been in a record buyers market for 8 months in a row.

The absorption rate for Aug07= 22%, Sep07=15%, Oct07=17%,Nov07=16%, Dec07=14%, Jan08=14%, Feb08=16%,March08=16%.   That folks, is a ten year record.

Lets just sit back and absorb that for a moment, then we will move on.

Here is the "slide" from a sellers market into a buyers market that took place in that last 15 months; Jan07=33%, Feb07=41%, Mar07=43%, Apr07=37%, May07=35%, June07=31%, Jul07=26%, Aug=22%, Sept07=15%, Oct07=17%, Nov07=16%, Dec=14%.

Looking back one can clearly see the slide happening, but before you try to predict what April of 08 will bring, try this little exercise. Take the above line and with a piece of paper, cover all the figures except Jan07, then try and predict each month, uncover it and predict the next. Its an exercise that will quickly show just how difficult it is to predict the future using historical data.

The last time there were as many consecutive months of being well in the territory of a buyers market was 2002, where we had a buyers market for 6 months in a row, from Sep02 thru Feb03.

However, as one looks at the number of homes for sale and pending you have to note the difference in volume from 2002 to 2008. For instance December of 2002 had 9,243 for sale while Dec 2008 had 10,947, pending were 2,049 and 1,488 respectively. Wow, ouch!

OK, lets break it all down for March into the neighborhoods by zip code, a dizzy chart of figures to be sure but if you live or are thinking of living in one of these burgs, this is a nice data point to have. Note, this isnt all inclusive, although it looks like it, I have not gone farther north of Seattle nor farther south deeper into Renton.

March 2008

City              Zip                    Area                                                                  Active & STI     Pendings    Solds    AB Rate
Seattle        98101 Pike Place / Water Front / Down Town            110                 20               9      18.18%
                  98102 East Lake Union                                          216                 30             11    13.89%
                  98103 Freemont / GreenLake/Wallingford/              322                 66             64      20.50%
                  98104 Pioneer Square / Qwest Field                        59                  11             11      18.64%
                  98105 LaurelHurst / Ravenna                                 90                   27             30     30.00%
                  98106 Westwood / SSCC                                      135                   21             34    15.56%
                  98107 Ballard                                                     168                   39             48     23.21%
                  98108 Rainer Valley / George Town                       100                   16             23    16.00%
                  98109 West Lake Union                                       201                  20             26       9.95%
                  98112 Capital Hill / Montlake / Madison Park         163                  22             22     13.50%
                  98115 Greenlake/Ravenna / View Ridge                224                  54             45     24.11%
                  98116 Alki / West Seattle                                  214                 26             35     12.15%
                  98117 North Beach / Crown Hill / Loyal Heights     157                 46             41     29.30%
                  98118 Columbia / Rainer Beach                           292                 49             30     16.78%
                  98119 Queen Anne                                             165                 29             35     17.58%
                  98121 BellTown / Water Front                               213                66              21     30.99%
                  98122 First Hill / Central Area / Madrona Park         274                46              34     16.79%
                  98125 North Seattle / Lake City                             181                45              35     24.86%
                  98126 Delridge                                                   129              36             32      27.91%
                  98133 North Gate / Bitter Lake / Shoreline            234               38             48      16.24%
                  98134 Harbor Island / Safeco Field                          4               0               0        0.00%
                  98136 Fauntleroy                                               139               23             31       16.55%
                  98144 Beacon Hill / Mount Baker                          182               29             22      15.93%
                  98155 Lake Forest Park / North City /                    180              35             37      19.44%
                  98177 ShoreLine / Arden / Richmondbeach            127              18             13      14.17%
                  98199 Interbay & Magnolia                                  147              24             24       16.33%

Woodinville  98072 Hollywood / Cottege Lake /                        211                20             23        9.48%

Kirkland      98034 Juanita / KingsGate                                    372                43             31       11.56%
                  98033 Forbes Creek / Bridle Trails                         546                46             55         8.42%

Redmond     98052 Willows Run / Earlmont / Avondale              402                88              71        21.89%

Medina       98039 Medina                                                       47                  2               4          4.26%

Mercer Island98040 Mercer Island                                           184                 28              19        15.22%

Bellevue      98004 Clyde Hill / Downtown                                 453                62               23        13.69%
                  98005 Wilburn                                                   112                22               15        19.64%
                  98006 Somerset / EastGate / Lakemont                251                36               39        14.34%
                  98007 LakeHills                                                  107                17                 9        15.89%
                  98008 Lake Sammamish / Rosemont Beach        134                28               23        20.90%

NewCastle  98056 May Creek                                                273                26              25          9.52%
                 98059 Cougar Mtn / LakeMont / Renton                359                89              57        24.79%

Issaquah    98027 Squak Mtn / Cougar Mtn / Talus / Highland 264                28              33        10.61%
                 98029 Klahanie                                                  338                58              52        17.16%

Sammamish98074 Sahalee / Adelaide                                   225               37              42      16.44%
                  98075 MonoHan / Pine Lake / Beaver Lake           178               24              14        13.48%

Snoqualmie98024 Preston / Fall City                                        91                8                5          8.79%
                 98065 Snoqualmie Ridge / Preston / North Bend    207              30              13         14.49%

North Bend 98045 RattleSanke Mtn / Tanner                          127              10                8          7.87%

If you got through all of that and are still awake, give yourself a pat on the back.

Wouldnt it be nice if we could just take the lowest absorption rate, run out with our Realtor and start making offers?

This is but one of several data points to be considered when either buying or selling. For example 98134, Harbor Island scores a big fat goose egg for absorption, but this is largely where the shipping containers are loaded and the port operates Seattle Harbor. Not very conducive for the peace and quite of single family home ownership. One of many reasons you need the advice and council of an agent that knows the area before you dive in as a buyer or seller.

Absorption rate provides a nice barometer going into the year and we will keep a weather eye on these rates as our traditional buying season for this region starts to heat up in the coming months.

Now, if I replaced the word Home with Salmon and the numbers represented pounds of salmon available versus those sold, wouldn't you be inclined to visit the grocery store and check the price of a pound of Salmon? I know I would.  And I would increase my rate of Salmon absorption to be sure. You can do that easily right at your PC or MAC.

Well, actually I don't know about the Salmon but you can easily check homes in your neighborhood or other areas of interest by setting up a search account at http://www.seattleshomesearch.com/   (shameless plug) and checking out the home prices in differing areas.  The search results delivery is automated and the search tool is quite easy to use. Who knows you might just discover a nice price on a pound of home.

As a final note, we are seeing a steady pick up in buyer interest in the Seattle area and if you happen to be a buyer, take note of these numbers and share this information with your Realtor. They will know you are doing your homework and you both will benefit from a little bit more knowledge of the market.

If you are a seller, take heart, brighter days are on the horizon.

RH

http://www.seattleshomesearch.com/

You can find great local Seattle, Washington real estate information on Localism.com Rich Hamman is a proud member of the ActiveRain Real Estate Network, a free online community to help real estate professionals grow their business.

Why Open Houses Dont Sell Homes - Or Do they?

Rich Hamman (RE/MAX Integrity) — Mon, 31 Mar 2008 01:46:58 -0500

Today I held an open house on a condo we have listed in Snoqualmie Ridge. In sharing the experience I think you will retain a feel for the local markets in our area.

I woke this morning at my Issaquah home to a nice carpet of snow surrounding our home. It was slowly melting, so I took some cheer that Snoqualmie Ridge, well east of me, might have some clear weather by this afternoon.

The Ridge is a fairly recent development, a mix of high end golf course planted, gated mini-mansions surround by single family homes outlined by Condos and Town-homes, all nestled on a ridge in the Snoqualmie valley, about 29 miles east of Seattle.

So why an open today? The next two weekends are spring break at local schools, so chances are folks will head out for fun instead of looking at homes. Turns out I was in good company today, as there were more open signs at the ridge by 2 PM than I have seen in more than a few weeks.

The usual timing for opens in the ridge is between 1 and 4 pm. I set-up at 12:30 so I always have first dibs on A-Board placement.

I no sooner put up the last a-board in front of the property and opend the door, in burst a gentleman, shoes removed, to have a look see. He quickly explained he was a local home owner and was looking for a rental property. Wanted to know what I thought of the rental rate this 3 bedroom 2 bath condo would bring. We talked for nearly an hour. He was a dreamer, being in a 7 year ARM on a 3 bedroom 2300 sq ft home and not able to put more than 5% down on another property, but I gave him sound advice never the less. You might ask, why bother? First, what else did I have to do and second, he might just recall me and mention the condo to a friend......stranger things have happened. Anyhow, he took my card and I asked for the referral to his friends and family.

My second visit of the day was a neighbor, who was curious about days on market and admitted he was looking to sell his unit....on his own.....I asked him why he didn't want to use an agent and he said he didn't know one.....that was the amazing statement of the week. I again spent about an hour talking with him about the local market on the ridge, what was moving and what wasn't and why. I asked him if he needed to sell and he said no, I advised him not to sell in this market, we had plenty of inventory and he would be lucky to break even, having only bought two years ago. It ended with me providing him with a referral to my tile guy for flooring upgrades in his bathrooms and kitchen, my cabinet guy for some kitchen countertops and a plan to sell 3 or 4 years from now. I don't know if he will call me in three or four years, but I again asked for the referral for anyone interested in the condo. He took some flyer's to post in his local business, the Sno Ridge karate school. even though I only talked to two people in the space of four hours today, I feel it was time well spent, face to face, talking real estate to someone other than another agent.

So, do open houses sell homes or are they just for the agent to collect leads?

I guess the answer lies in the agents motivation. Whens its my listing I am holding open I make it all about the listing, thats my job. If there are any leads to be had, they will come as a result of my efforts to sell what I have.

Tell me how you feel about open houses, waste of time or time well spent?

Seattle Area Market Report

Rich Hamman (RE/MAX Integrity) — Sat, 29 Mar 2008 17:04:10 -0500

Freaky Weather And A Funky Market

The month of March is about over but winter is holding on tight as we have unseasonable snow and cold temps. The general housing market in Seattle and the surrounding areas of Bellevue, Kirkland, Sammamish, Issaquah, Snoqualmie and North Bend are all feeling the brunt of what we know as a slow market.

Compared to many local markets in other states, we are still holding our own, in terms of values, but sales are off and inventory is building. Will the summer bring relief? Many are saying, no.

Foreclosures are up in the south end, (Renton, Tacoma, Auburn) with perhaps more to come. Over building and balloon payments are mostly to blame there.

With rumors flying about Washington Mutual’s next round of layoffs ( no one left in the mortgage dept to layoff, so the deep cuts are coming) with an impending 5 to 12 million dollar write down on its way, things are looking pretty gloomy on the mortgage front, which is causing buyers some headaches when trying to qualify, which in turn is causing homes to remain on the market longer and price reductions to become the rule of the day. By the way WAMU stock is now near $10 a share, from $40 a share last summer.

"Is it a buyers market yet?" one client recently asked me, tongue in check. "You have tremendous power right now", I replied, "if you can utilize it, there are some great deals to be had". But like so many potential buyers choosing to sit on the sidelines and "wait it out", she was one of them

Wait out what? Fear, fear of recession, fear of job loss, fear, fear, fear. All the old fears that always crop up in a market like this one. Its our fear that holds us back, but for the brave buyers willing to buy and hold, rewards are on the horizon. That is the smart way to "wait it out", if you can swing it financially.

As sure as I’m writing this blog the market will even out and return to “normal”, and home prices / values aren’t going to stay down for any appreciable length of time, but I yell to the wind, no one else is listening. That’s OK, I’m patient by nature.

One of my sellers recently asked me, "How do I maximize my profits and still get my house sold?". Wrong question. The real question is what is the market price of my home in a declining market? Ah, there is the trick, valuing a home in this market.

Me? I hire a pro for my sellers, a real wake-up call for most of them, but having an independent appraisal in hand is invaluable in this market.

If a home is presented well, and I mean really well, great curb appeal, nicely staged and de-cluttered inside, no glaring maintenance issues ( like a new shingle roof being needed) and, (and this is the BIG and), if the home is priced CORRECTLY, then selling it is no problem. In fact buyers will come out of the woodwork and line up to buy fairly priced home that shines outside and in.

For the right house at the right price, we still see multiple offers and homes being sold in three to four days or within a week or two. The rest, just sit and wait, like poor performers waiting to be picked. To be sure, a home sold in two or three days with multipule offers is far from the norm these days, but it still does happen.

Clearly there is a disconnect between the sellers and buyers. I have been counseling my sellers, if they aren’t dead serious about selling, take it off or don’t put it on the market, you are wasting everyone’s time. Its tough love, but when the market changes, you have to change with it, or wither on the vine.

In the next installment Ill have some metrics, sales figures, inventory, days on market and some examples of transactions in the area. Oh, and some juicy gossip to share as well! Until then, take care and remember they aren’t making any more land in the US of A.