I suppose like many men who are avid sports fans, I have periodically fantasized a life as a sportswriter. I've pictured myself many a time sitting in the press box wearing an old rumpled tweed sports coat and a crooked dirty hat chomping on a cigar and leaning to the reporter next to me saying something like "Sanders is dropping his right shoulder early. 20 bucks says he doesn't make it through the third."

I had my chance to play sports writer last Saturday when I attended my first University of South Carolina Beaufort Sand Sharks game. My wife, Pam Cooper Hoel, a USCB faculty member, has volunteered for the past few games ( I had always found some reason to be otherwise engaged), with many members of the faculty, student body and community, to run the whole show at the Richard Gray baseball complex in Hardeeville where the Sand Sharks will finish this season and eventually, perhaps next season, compete on a beautiful new diamond to be built on the USCB Bluffton campus.

        I joined Pam Saturday as a ticket taker and after a few problems making change I was politely invited by Pam and others to go watch the game for awhile.  And what a game!  I was standing next to a community volunteer passing out programs, a real fan who knew the team well.  It was the bottom of the third inning when the opposing Florida Memorial Lions were leading 3 to 2. My friend commented that the Sand Sharks had gained a reputation over the season for scoring runs in huge bunches.  On cue, the Sharks got eight straight hits and by the end of the inning, the score was 13 to 2.

The Sand Sharks went on to win that game, the first of a doubleheader, by the score of 21 to 11.  Hitters may be a bit ahead of pitchers at this stage of a baseball player's career but it made for exciting baseball nevertheless.  It was also astounding to watch how well the Sand Sharks had been coached; wonderful infield play, base running and hitting the cut off men just right.  This is good baseball.

I wish we'd stayed for the second game which the Sand Sharks won on a walk-off triple entering the bottom of the last inning trailing 5 to 4. They won 6 to 5 and have won their last 10 games.

I also saw, I believe, an almost triple play.  I'm really not a very good reporter and was talking to the crowd around me when I looked up to see the catcher pick up what was either a bunt or a dropped third strike with opposing Lion base runners already on first and second.  In any event, the catcher threw out the batter about the time he was approaching first base while the runner who had left for second returned late and was tagged out an instant later. Amidst this chaos of three players tangled up at first base, the first baseman saw the Lion runner on second streaking towards third and fired a perfect throw just missing a tag out.

While the game was exciting, what struck me was the faculty, community and team involvement in bringing great baseball to our community.  For those who still believe that university faculty members are stuffed shirts (I live with one by way who dramatically disproves the point), attend a game and witness the genuine camaraderie and dare I say, rowdiness, of this group.  It was always a mystery to me why about six years ago Hardeeville built a baseball complex with four fields, two of which are full major-league dimension parks.  In fact it was during the period when Hardeeville was attempting to establish its image as the "Emerald City" of the south and one of the City's strategies was to draw a minor league team to the area.  The Emerald City plans have stalled a bit, but things are moving in the right direction.  And USCB's energy and enthusiasm has certainly helped.

Three of those fields have not been maintained by the way, but the Sand Shark field is in beautiful condition and making it so is a story in itself.  I understand that many from the University, including head coach Rick Sofield, his coaches and the players themselves were all involved in grading, sodding, mowing and generally pulling it all together to put this ball park in top notch shape.

At one point during the game I had the chance to talk to USCB Athletic Director Kim Abbott who is one of those people with a perpetual positive attitude and smile who convinces one in a moment that athletics at USCB will continue to thrive. Unfortunately, we couldn't talk too long.  A foul ball down the left-field line went over the fence and as Kim was running from me to chase it down, she yelled back that we need every one of these. The Sand Sharks apparently don't yet have a budget comparable to the Yankees.

To top things off, USCB's Chancellor Jane Upshaw, who has done everything and anything to turn a former swamp into a now thriving University, added another line to her vita by singing "Take Me Out to the Ballgame" during the seventh inning stretch.  I always get nervous for a "volunteer" for this assignment.  I've seen too many embarrassing seventh inning stretches at Wrigley Field I suppose. But I needn't have been concerned. The Chancellor pulled it off in style.  Harry Carey would have been proud.

Well back to business.  I'm a Realtor, among other things, and I suppose I need to tie this back to marketing my wares in some way.  Here's all I'll say.  To anyone who reads this who has shoveled snow or scraped ice off a windshield sometime in the past month, my recommendation is to sell your home and move to Beaufort County -- immediately.  The Sun Conference baseball playoffs start on May 7.

This is a post from one of my other Blogs, "Finding Work in Tough Times"' http://jobsintoughtimes.blogspot.com, but the message has universal value for those who want to build their real estate business the "old-fashion" way, by calling people and asking for their business.

Find Opportunities Your Competition Doesn't Even Know Exist

I don't have the statistics, but my experience in the business world has taught me that many if not most of the jobs you would like to have aren't even posted on all of the sites we spend so much time scanning on the internet. Why is this?

1. Companies are always in the process of assessing their needs and positions are available long before the "posting" process is completed.
2. Many companies first look internally to find the right person for a position. But this doesn't mean the company is wedded to this process if the right applicant from the outside catches someone's attention.
3. Many businesses don't really know their staffing needs but can be taught by an aggressive job applicant.
4. Businesses are always on the look-out for talent that adds real value. One who impresses might just cause a company to create a position and figure out just how you can help later.
5. Timing is a curious thing. You may just catch someone's attention the day before a position is scheduled for posting.

The bottom line is that any business in this environment is always looking for real talent. The key is to show someone you have it before others do.

Many years ago, I left a law firm that specialized in litigation and decided to take that experience and look for a position as an in-house corporate attorney. I was fortunate because one of my best friends was a recruiter and also had a big heart. He truly thrived on helping people. In fact he always had a few extra desks at his office where he would let friends work while looking for a job. I called Bill and told him what I was looking for and he told me to stop in the following Monday.

When I arrived, I honestly expected Bill to hand me a list of companies who were looking for people with my experience and say something like, "I've spoken with these folks and they'd like you to call and schedule an interview."

This is not what happened. Instead, Bill pointed to a desk and told me I could use it, the phone on it, and a book sitting there listing information about all of the companies in the Chicago area. Surprised, I asked, "Well, what do I do with it?"

Bill didn't hesitate, "You go through it, make a list of all the companies that would be large enough to employ in-house attorneys. Then get the name and number of the person in the company at the highest level who will make the final decision on hiring an attorney. If the company has an in-house staff, get the name and number of the General Counsel. If it doesn't yet have an in-house attorney, but is large enough to need one, get the name and number of the President."

"And then what," I stammered.

"Call them," Bill said and walked away.

Over the course of the next couple of days, I very reluctantly did make a list, obtained the right names and numbers to call, in some cases calling the main number to get that person's name and number. I spent a lot of time doing this, pushing off the inevitable moment when I would need to pick up the phone and actually call these people.

When I'd completed the list, I asked Bill what I should say. He told me I would figure it out along the way but to essentially tell the person briefly who I was, what I had done, why I could be of value to his or her company and ask to make an appointment to see them.

Scared straight, I wrote out my "pitch" and started calling the smallest companies on the list first. I'll talk tomorrow about some of the results of these calls in more detail and the benefits of even a flat out refusal to take the call, though there were few.

But to make today's point, over the course of a week, my confidence in delivering my proposal increased and my fears lessened but never flat out left me. Eventually I got to the big companies and at the very end of the day on Friday, I called the General Counsel of one of the largest companies headquartered in the Chicago area, a Fortune 100 company with a global presence.

The General Counsel was not in, but the receptionist was nice enough to put me through to the Assistant General Counsel. I told him who I was, what I had done and why I could help his company. Expecting a "send me a resume" response at best, I got a surprise.

"This is quite a coincidence," the Assistant General Counsel said, "I have had this proposed advertisement for an attorney on my desk for three days for approval and was going to send it to Human Resources to place in the papers on Monday. Frankly, your background doesn't sound like an exact fit but call Mr. Brown on Monday and set an appointment to see him. I'll let him know you will be calling. Have a nice weekend."

I won't describe the emotions that I experienced after that call but will tell you that I called Mr. Brown on Monday and eventually got the job.

I framed the title of this post as a question because I'm not certain I have the answer.  I have ideas however, and would invite others from around the world to comment.  I'm certain that many of the factors impacting our market, Hilton Head Island and Bluffton, South Carolina, are similar to those affecting other markets, and yet we all likely have our own unique problems.

Let me start by talking a bit about why our southern resort location was touted as one of the best real estate markets in the country several years ago.  At least that's what we, here, were saying.  The economy was moving along smartly; baby boomers looking for second homes and eventually to retire were to be leaving on the next train from the north for our beautiful year-round climate; cash flow was still available for investors; and even at the peak, many of us said (me included) that compared to other resort communities, Miami, for example, our resdiential real estate was still undervalued.  And Bluffton prices were, on average, 20% lower than prices on Hilton Head Island.

And then everything went the wrong way.  It's complicated, but let's face it, we learned once again, that home prices can't go up for ever and yet, the whole economy was tied to that fantasy.  Arguments will go on for years about Wall Street greed and corrupt CEO's, etc. but to blame our current global economic problems on these factors alone is a bit like blaming an air plane crash on gravity.  The real genesis of our global problems was that people chose and, yes, in some cases were improperly drawn, into buying homes they could only afford if prices kept going up and they could continue to pay with equity drawn from those very homes.  Couple that with the ability to lend with no money down and a statement that "I have a business but little income" and that mysterious pool of global investment money, always looking for places to put it for the right return, saw  American housing as one of the last best remaining spots to invest.  This global pool of money logically welcomed the system here that would lend easily,draw equity from homes after intial loans, package them up in neat investment securities and sell them.  We were off to the races.

This all started with a noble idea - everyone in our country should have the opportunity to own a home.  Gravity, and a regulatory system that couldn't or wouldn't keep up, took it from there.

So where are we:

1.  Prices in our area have declined by as much as 40%, in some locations more.  If we argued that there was good value three years ago, nobody can say there isn't good value now.  The fact that no one can say for certain how low prices will go certainly keeps some buyers on the sidelines, but for first time home buyers, or investors in for even a "short" long haul, a buy today will be a good investment at some point in the future.

2.   Folks up north can't sell their homes in order to be able to move to the land of milk and honey in the Lowcountry. The trains south have been derailed for the time being.  But this has been a big factor from the beginning of the downturn here.  The baby boomers are holding their ground.

3.   Loose, reckless lending practices have swung way too far in the opposite direction and I have heard that many potential buyers, even with excellent credit, can't get loans without in some cases 40% down payments.

4.   But the most significant problem, from my vantage point, is just plain fear.  How can I buy a home, even at fire sale prices, when I'm just not sure I'll have a job tommorw.  I think this is the biggest factor and yet the most difficult to tackle in the short term. 

It would seem logical to tackle the jobs problem first and there is no doubt it needs to be addressed, but the best way out in my view is to go back to the root cause and step by step solve the problem that started this mess, clear up the foreclosures and get banks lending on reasonable terms.  From there confidence will return and gravity will lose some of its pull.

These are thoughts from one not too well versed in the details of finance and credit default swaps and other devices that simply created more opportunities to "buy into" a fantasy; so I welcome comments from others who undoubtedly understand this better than me, here in the Lowcountry and elsewhere.

Here is an excert from my Blog, "Finding Work in Tough Times" http://jobsintoughtimes.blogspot.com/

This is a pretty simple story to stress a very important point in any endeavor.

I was married in college and my wife and then one year old daughter, Jenifer, needed to find a plagh timesce to live during my senior year.  I saw an ad in the paper for an apartment that offered a tremendous discount on rent for a resident who would also take on the responsibility for maintaining the grounds.  It was a big complex and mowing the lawn in itself was a challenge.

But, we were poor students and I jumped at the opportunity.  I did what the many other interested renters did.  I called the number on the ad and told an answering service of my interest.  The woman on the line politely told me that she would take my number and I should expect a call.  She also mentioned that many others had called for the same reason.

When I got off the phone, I thought that I had probably already missed my chance.  I was young though, 20, and I didn't over think things too much.  I was more prone to act impulsively and I really wanted and needed this.  So without much thought, I drove to the complex and started walking around the perimeter of the grounds.  Eventually, a man saw me and came over to see just who was trespassing on his property.

I introduced myself and explained that I was very interested in the resident maintenance position and always liked to understand any job I applied for in as much detail as I could.  I didn't know that I was talking to the owner until he introduced himself and told me he had received a number of calls and would make a decision by the end of the week.  I said that would be great and did he mind if I could call him directly during the week if I had any questions.  He somewhat reluctantly gave me his number and I ended the conversation by nervously telling him that "I want the job and will do a great job for you". I explained that my father had a true "green thumb" and I had learned to love taking care of yards as well.  I confess that this was perhaps a bit of a stretch since, in my earlier years, Dad usually had all he could do to get me out of bed on Saturday mornings to help in the yard.

Despite my fears, I did call the owner everyday that week to both ask a question and tell him again how much this would mean to my family.  Finally on Friday, he called me and asked me to stop by.  When I approached him a little later at the complex, he had an unreadable expression on hi s face and I thought that perhaps I'd pushed too hard.  He then spoke with a somewhat exasperated tone, "Son, if you work as hard at this job as you have at getting it, it's yours.   I like your persistence."

The lesson is obvious and every old school sales person knows it - get in front of the "customer" and ask for the sale.  You can't do this very well on the internet.  In the next few entries, I'll elaborate on ways that this simple truth still applies today and can be employed in today's high-tech age.

A final bit of advice - buy an old paperback copy of "How to Win Friends and Influence People" by Dale Carnegie.  Read a chapter or a few pages a day and when you are done, start over again, and again. . . .  Getting a job is about people and how you relate to them.

I havent't given up on real estate, not by a long shot, but over the years I have had many jobs and learned some valuable lessons and techniques for setting oneself away from the crowd in job searches.  Many of the principles apply to building a real estate business.  So I've created a separate blog to help those who are looking for work in today's difficult environment.  Your are welcome to take a look -

http://jobsintoughtimes.blogspot.com/

Here's the first entry:

Do You Really Want to Find a Job?

I have had many jobs in my life - lemonade stands, Evanston Review delivery boy, newspaper deliverer, golf caddie, an egg route (yes we delivered eggs door to door but did so more gently than with the newspapers), summer camp maintenance and kitchen crew worker, camp counselor, lifeguard, bookstore salesperson, bartender, gauze factory packer, night shift movie theater cleaner, lumber yard truck loader, janitor, hod-carrier, electrician apprentice, taxi-cab driver, hospital pharmacy technician, cardio-pulmonary technician, teacher, law-clerk, attorney in private practice, in-house corporate counsel, international attorney in Hong Kong, real estate Broker/Realtor, Master's Degree instructor, adjunct college professor, hotel front desk clerk, photographer, freelance writer and more.....

I've lost jobs, been re-hired at some, quit and left some for personal reasons to seek a better opportunity. From the haywire career path above, you might think that I haven't really found my "passion" in life quite yet. This blog is not really about job passion though it will talk about the need to have a passion for life. It is primarily designed to share some lessons and a large bag of tips and tricks that I've picked up over the years during my own job searches.

I've read most of the popular books about finding one's true passion and certainly do believe in the old-adage that "if you find something you love to do, you'll never work a day in your life." You may not want to, or have the luxury these days, to spend the time creating the intricate charts designed to identify the perfect career for you; you, like many, just need to find work. If you want to spend the time first looking for that niche that best fits your personality, I'd suggest that you talk to your 5 closest friends and/or former employers and ask them candidly what they see as your strengths and weaknesses, what your good at doing and areas you may want to steer clear of. This will do for now.

This blog is going to tell some stories of persistence and good luck and share a wide range of techniques and strategies that I've picked up over the years on how to stand out from the crowd. If you are content sitting in front of the computer all day and submitting resumes with well-crafted and moving cover letters, this may not be the blog for you. If you are interested in more aggressive and unique approaches, read on.

I also want everyone to know that I am at this point in my career looking for a particular job myself. But this blog is not intended to be a job searching tool of my own. It is not a way to market myself for this position. In fact, I'm not going to even mention the goal I have in mind. But I will commit to everyone that I will follow every bit of advice that I give to you and hope to learn more from readers' comments.

You have probably gathered from the above job history that I've been around for awhile. Much of what I talk about here has been gathered from various sources - good friends, great books, advisers, mentors and free spirits. Much of this information has become part of my own life philosophy and at times it will be hard to fairly attribute a specific piece of advice to a single source. But I'll try my best to do so.

Finally, I have had a great deal of help in my life overcoming struggles, self-doubt and landing in positions I never dreamed possible. Many of those who have aided me in my journey are no longer with us. My goal here is to offer the help I can to those who are struggling today. It's a form of pay-back to the many who've helped me along the way.

I welcome comments, questions and requests for specific topics.

Tomorrow - "My Greatest Lesson."

I wrote the other day about local attractions as a "Marketing Tool".  Since that post, I have received feedback and read other blog posts that remind me that this particular attraction in Savannah, The Mighty 8th Air Force Museum, is much more than this.  For me it is full of inspiring stories of the bravery and courage of ordinary young men faced with extraordinary circumstances.  Each story helps me cope with the particular problems in our business and my life these days and frankly makes me somewhat ashamed of the extent to which I believe that I am facing tough times. 

There were 10 men in the Mighty 8^th who received the Medal of Honor, an unprecedented number from one segment of the war effort.  At the Museum, you can see the pictures and read the stories of why these men received the Medal of Honor, many posthumously.  Here is one of those stories.

First Lieutenant Jack W. Mathis was born in 1921, in Texas and enlisted in the Army on June 12, 1940.  He served in an artillery unit until he learned that his brother Mark had enlisted in the Army Air Corps.  Jack Mathis immediately transferred into his brother's unit and received aviation cadet training at San Angelo, Texas.  Both brothers were trained as bombardiers and upon graduation, Jack Mathis was assigned to the 303d Bombardment Group of the Eighth Air Force In England, where he flew 14 missions.

On March 19, 1943, Mathis, 21 years old at the time, was lead bombardier on a mission over Germany.  The lead bombardier's role in these missions was critical.  He was responsible for directing the bombing of the entire squadron.  I will let the Medal of Honor Citation speak for itself:

Medal of Honor citation

Rank and organization: First Lieutenant, U.S. Army Air Corps, 359th Bomber Squadron, 303d Bomber Group. Place and date: Over Vegesack, Germany, March 18, 1943. Entered service at: San Angelo, Tex. Born: September 25, 1921, San Angelo, Tex. G.O. No.: 38, July 12, 1943.

Citation:

For conspicuous gallantry and intrepidity above and beyond the call of duty in action with the enemy over Vegesack, Germany, on March 18, 1943. 1st Lt. Mathis, as leading bombardier of his squadron, flying through intense and accurate antiaircraft fire, was just starting his bomb run, upon which the entire squadron depended for accurate bombing, when he was hit by the enemy antiaircraft fire. His right arm was shattered above the elbow, a large wound was torn in his side and abdomen, and he was knocked from his bomb sight to the rear of the bombardier's compartment. Realizing that the success of the mission depended upon him, 1st Lt. Mathis, by sheer determination and willpower, though mortally wounded, dragged himself back to his sights, released his bombs, then died at his post of duty. As the result of this action the airplanes of his bombardment squadron placed their bombs directly upon the assigned target for a perfect attack against the enemy. 1st Lt. Mathis' undaunted bravery has been a great inspiration to the officers and men of his unit.

Jack's brother Mark was on base when the plane carrying his brother's body landed after the mission. At his own request, Mark Mathis was transferred into Jack Mathis' crew to replace him as bombardier. When the crew completed its tour of duty, Mark Mathis stayed in combat and was killed in action over the North Sea in May 1943. 

Somehow, I don't feel that my own problems are quite so important after studying the stories of these brave young men, then and now.   My father served with both Mark and Jack Mathis and I appreciate that but for a few events that went one way instead of another, I would not be here today.

These stories, help me face each day with much less self-absorption and before I do anything else, ask myself, "How can I be of help to someone less fortunate than me today?"

As a Realtor, lawyer and writer in Bluffton, South Carolina, I have often visited one of the most fascinating "attractions" in our area, specifically, the Mighty 8^th Air Force Museum in Savannah.  It is of tremendous interest to many of my clients here and around the country who either were in World War II, or more recent wars, and the surprising number of people of my generation, the Baby Boomers, who have a connection to WW II through a parent or other relative.

My father was in the "Mighty 8th" and the following story appeared in papers throughout the country in August 2003

Watch Survives WWII, Follows Him Home - ASSOCIATED PRESS

EVANSTON, Ill. - Jim Hoel is glad to have his watch back, even though it had stopped working since he last saw it during World War II.  The last time he remembers wearing the old Gallet chronometer was on May 17, 1943, the day he used it while navigating a B-26 Marauder before the bomber was forced to ditch in a canal in the Netherlands .  He knows he no longer had the elaborate watch when he arrived at a German prisoner-of-war camp a few days later.

The watch arrived at his home last week in a package sent from England by a truck driver, Peter Cooper, 56, who found it in the possession of an elderly neighbor in the village of Kirton , 75 miles northeast of London .

"It's just eerie, isn't it? That was 60 years ago. I've sort of got gooseflesh," Hoel, 82, told the Chicago Tribune.

Cooper said the neighbor, "Tiny" Baxter, 89, told him his mother had given it to him.

"Whether she found it or it was given to her, I do not know," Baxter, a retired carpenter, said in a telephone interview.

The watch, an enlistment present from the bank where Hoel worked before the war, had his name and Evanston address on the back.  Cooper was able to track him down at his new address using the Internet and friends who had contacts in the United States .  He persuaded his neighbor to give the watch to him so he could forward it to Hoel.

Hoel said the B-26 was one of a flight of 10 that encountered heavy antiaircraft fire while en route to bomb a power plant near Amsterdam . He and three others of the plane's six crewmen survived. He spent the next two years in German POW camps.

The story was also published in our local paper, The Island Packet, and papers throughout the country.  It has also reached "Ripley's Believe It Or Not!"  I am currently working on a book about my father's entire story over time.  Dad is now 87 years old. 

To bring this back to real estate, I'm not selling many homes these days but I am meeting many people with fascinating stories themselves with less than six degrees of separation from our local treasure, The Mighty 8th Air Force Museum.  Stories connect people and your local treasures will do the same.

You can read my about my father's entire World War II experience and the many things that have occurred after his "reunion" with his watch at the "War Watch" blog - http://warandtime.blogspot.com/

 

 

I'm excited.  Commentators from all sides of the economic arena are telling us that we may be about to see something we typically only read about in textbooks - real free market supply and demand principles in action and in an important and very visible aspect of our daily lives.  Provided the Saudis don't increase oil production and our government doesn't dip into the Strategic Oil Reserve, it appears that something "classic" may be happening right now that should lower the price at the pump all by itself.  People are finally changing their behavior.  I'm one of them.  Just last week I started using my wife's VW Bug whenever I get the chance while Pam takes my gas guzzling Volvo for her shorter jaunt to work.  I now plan my errands and carefully see if I can postpone a short trip and consolidate several into one.  My list goes on but more importantly, anecdotal evidence seems to show that many of us are taking steps to reduce our demand for gasoline.  Most of my friends in Bluffton, South Carolina have altered their driving habits in some way.  If memory serves me right, my college economics professor along with Paul Samuelson's text, clearly told me that with less demand and a stable supply, prices go down.  Right?

I lived in Hong Kong in the mid 90's and many say that Hong Kong then, and to a large extent even today, despite the turn-over to China, is one of the last bastions of true free enterprise.  Milton Friedman believed that "the only plausible explanation for the different rates of growth (between the UK and Hong Kong) is "socialism in Britain and free enterprise and free markets in Hong Kong."  But enough of pure economic thought.  The question I want to ask is if we do see a cap on gas prices and if our behavior actually does produce the expected result of lowering those prices, what impact will this have on our real estate market.  Let's first look at the impact we have seen and can expect from higher energy prices.

First, when energy prices do rise as they have been for some time now, prices start to rise generally throughout the economy.  We've all seen this.  Starting with basic transportation, everything that needs to be transported is costing more these days.  And that list goes on as well.  If these higher fuel costs aren't matched by a higher corresponding increase in productivity, inflationary pressures just continue to mount.  We would then expect to see lenders looking for some way to offset these pressures and raising interest rates would be the expected next step.  I've already said (Bridging the Gap in Today's Real Estate Market) that those buyers sitting on the sidelines today waiting for the buy of the century may look back in the next several months and wish they had acted now with the combination of rates and home prices at a point we may not see again for quite some time. 

See also the May 6, 2008 Wall Street Journal Article, "The Housing Crisis is Over", WSJ.com - Opinion: The Housing Crisis Is Over.  As the WSJ Article points out, the key factor that started the real estate slump is the same factor that will bring us out of it - affordability.  The author optimistically points out that the recent overall decline in real estate prices has brought us back to the point where it now takes "19% of monthly income for the average home buyer....to purchase a house." This percantage had reached as high as 25% just before the bust in 2006.  At this point and above, folks just couldn't afford to buy homes and they stopped doing so, pretty suddenly.  But at the current 19%, homes are "back to being as affordable as during the best of times in the 1990s."  If energy costs do continue to rise, the factors above could delay what some predict could be a pretty quick recovery from a mild or phantom recession, and depress housing sales even more as rates increase.

Well, if Milton Friedman is right and my own behavior and that of my friends is any indicator, we may all be doing this whole market a favor as we ride our bikes and actually pay attention to speed limits.  And if we start to see the price at the pump decline, WSJ may be right.  Keep your eye on the pump and honk when you see a Bug.

I confess I can't, but perhaps there are others who may have some useful ideas.  In recent days I've spoken to several people who've offered some insights.  I'll share them below and invite others to chime in.

A friend who has been in the business longer than me recently opined that one factor that characterizes the end of both bull and bear markets is a rapid acceleration of panic.  What he meant is that historically, at the end of either market, one sees a rapid increase in the rate of price increases or decreases respectively.  If this is true, yesterday's AP report that "Home Prices Fall at Record Clip" might be encouraging.  The closely watched seven-year-old S&P's Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed that home prices in 20 cities fell almost 13 percent in February from a year earlier.  This is a record for the Index.

In my area, the lowcountry of South Carolina and Georgia, prices in Hilton Head and Bluffton, South Carolina have followed this trend and it appears that in the past three months there has been a noticeable increase in the number of downward listing price adjustments.  But the national home price index has been showing declines in prices for 9 months now.  In this country we are still coming to grips with the national myth prevalent several years earlier that housing prices will always increase so it's natural that many see a declining market as a blip from the norm and that some cosmic force is always pulling us back to the "good old days" of, well, 2004.  I hope this is true but I lived in Asia in the mid 1990's and patterns of long term real estate price declines in countries like Japan are haunting.  Again, people a lot smarter than me tell me that macro economic conditions here will prevent a similar long term housing malaise.

Perhaps the best common sense assessment I've read recently came from Charles Hughes Smith in his April 23, 2008 blog, "Want to Know When Housing Has Bottomed? Here's How."  Mr. Smith believes that the "bottom will be close when buying real estate make sense as a sound business proposition."  It's well worth reading his entire piece at http://www.oftwominds.com/blogapr08/RE-bottom4-08.html.

Any thoughts out there or better yet evidence that shows you've reached a bottom in your market?
   

"Under all is the land. Upon its wise utilization and widely allocated ownership depend the survival and growth of free institutions and of our civilization."  So begins the Preamble of the Code of Ethics and Standards of Practice of the National Association of Realtors.  I was immediately impressed with this powerful prose which I read during one of my introductory courses.  I am equally impressed, and proud to be a part of, The Hilton Head Symphony Orchestra's own celebration of our "land" on May 5, 2008 with its "Dream of America" series. 

Directed by Music Director and Conductor Mary Woodmansee Green, the orchestra will perform Peter Boyer's moving piece about Ellis Island which recounts the story of immigrants from seven different countries who arrived in America between 1908-1940.  The series will feature dramatic music, actors, and visual projections. Also on the program will be American classics by Adolphus Hailstork, Charles Ives, and George Gershwin.  The performance will take place at Hilton Head's First Presbyterian Church.

Following this theme and in keeping with the Symphony's mission to "reach" out to the community, in partnership with The Heritage Library Foundation headed by Bill Alstaetter, residents of Hilton Head Island, sister city Bluffton and the overall area were invited to submit family member, ancestor or their own stories of their personal "Dream of America".  Stories or essays were to deal "with some aspect of immigrating to America and were to involve life-altering experiences, challenges and/or relations/connections with special personages, either public or private who inspired the writers at some particular point in their journey."

Holocaust survivor Sophie Miklos was the winner of the adult division of the Dream of America Stories Project.  Her story, "My American Dream," was one of survival both from the Holocaust and the early struggles to survive in a new country. 

My story, "A Matter of Time," was voted second-place winner.  I recount the story of my father's "reunion" with a watch he lost, 60 years earlier, during the crash of his B-26 Marauder during World War II and my great grandfather's arrival in New York Harbor from Norway in the late 1800's.  Third place went to Barbara Baumgardner and honorable mentions to Richard E. Nelson, Roger Carlson and Leo G. Roell.
 
Ms. Miklos captured the spirit of this moving program which we are privileged to be a part of: "I am grateful to the United States for the icing on the cake on our American dream by enabling us to spend our twilight years on Hilton Head Island where beauty abounds."