Rick's Blog

Take Me Out to the (Sand Sharks) Ball Game!

Mon, 16 Mar 2009 10:38:46 -0500

I suppose like many men who are avid sports fans, I have periodically fantasized a life as a sportswriter. I've pictured myself many a time sitting in the press box wearing an old rumpled tweed sports coat and a crooked dirty hat chomping on a cigar and leaning to the reporter next to me saying something like "Sanders is dropping his right shoulder early. 20 bucks says he doesn't make it through the third."

I had my chance to play sports writer last Saturday when I attended my first University of South Carolina Beaufort Sand Sharks game. My wife, Pam Cooper Hoel, a USCB faculty member, has volunteered for the past few games ( I had always found some reason to be otherwise engaged), with many members of the faculty, student body and community, to run the whole show at the Richard Gray baseball complex in Hardeeville where the Sand Sharks will finish this season and eventually, perhaps next season, compete on a beautiful new diamond to be built on the USCB Bluffton campus.

I joined Pam Saturday as a ticket taker and after a few problems making change I was politely invited by Pam and others to go watch the game for awhile. And what a game! I was standing next to a community volunteer passing out programs, a real fan who knew the team well. It was the bottom of the third inning when the opposing Florida Memorial Lions were leading 3 to 2. My friend commented that the Sand Sharks had gained a reputation over the season for scoring runs in huge bunches. On cue, the Sharks got eight straight hits and by the end of the inning, the score was 13 to 2.

The Sand Sharks went on to win that game, the first of a doubleheader, by the score of 21 to 11. Hitters may be a bit ahead of pitchers at this stage of a baseball player's career but it made for exciting baseball nevertheless. It was also astounding to watch how well the Sand Sharks had been coached; wonderful infield play, base running and hitting the cut off men just right. This is good baseball.

I wish we'd stayed for the second game which the Sand Sharks won on a walk-off triple entering the bottom of the last inning trailing 5 to 4. They won 6 to 5 and have won their last 10 games.

I also saw, I believe, an almost triple play. I'm really not a very good reporter and was talking to the crowd around me when I looked up to see the catcher pick up what was either a bunt or a dropped third strike with opposing Lion base runners already on first and second. In any event, the catcher threw out the batter about the time he was approaching first base while the runner who had left for second returned late and was tagged out an instant later. Amidst this chaos of three players tangled up at first base, the first baseman saw the Lion runner on second streaking towards third and fired a perfect throw just missing a tag out.

While the game was exciting, what struck me was the faculty, community and team involvement in bringing great baseball to our community. For those who still believe that university faculty members are stuffed shirts (I live with one by way who dramatically disproves the point), attend a game and witness the genuine camaraderie and dare I say, rowdiness, of this group. It was always a mystery to me why about six years ago Hardeeville built a baseball complex with four fields, two of which are full major-league dimension parks. In fact it was during the period when Hardeeville was attempting to establish its image as the "Emerald City" of the south and one of the City's strategies was to draw a minor league team to the area. The Emerald City plans have stalled a bit, but things are moving in the right direction. And USCB's energy and enthusiasm has certainly helped.

Three of those fields have not been maintained by the way, but the Sand Shark field is in beautiful condition and making it so is a story in itself. I understand that many from the University, including head coach Rick Sofield, his coaches and the players themselves were all involved in grading, sodding, mowing and generally pulling it all together to put this ball park in top notch shape.

At one point during the game I had the chance to talk to USCB Athletic Director Kim Abbott who is one of those people with a perpetual positive attitude and smile who convinces one in a moment that athletics at USCB will continue to thrive. Unfortunately, we couldn't talk too long. A foul ball down the left-field line went over the fence and as Kim was running from me to chase it down, she yelled back that we need every one of these. The Sand Sharks apparently don't yet have a budget comparable to the Yankees.

To top things off, USCB's Chancellor Jane Upshaw, who has done everything and anything to turn a former swamp into a now thriving University, added another line to her vita by singing "Take Me Out to the Ballgame" during the seventh inning stretch. I always get nervous for a "volunteer" for this assignment. I've seen too many embarrassing seventh inning stretches at Wrigley Field I suppose. But I needn't have been concerned. The Chancellor pulled it off in style. Harry Carey would have been proud.

Well back to business. I'm a Realtor, among other things, and I suppose I need to tie this back to marketing my wares in some way. Here's all I'll say. To anyone who reads this who has shoveled snow or scraped ice off a windshield sometime in the past month, my recommendation is to sell your home and move to Beaufort County -- immediately. The Sun Conference baseball playoffs start on May 7.

Cold Calls

Thu, 12 Mar 2009 10:35:01 -0500

This is a post from one of my other Blogs, "Finding Work in Tough Times"' http://jobsintoughtimes.blogspot.com, but the message has universal value for those who want to build their real estate business the "old-fashion" way, by calling people and asking for their business.

Find Opportunities Your Competition Doesn't Even Know Exist

I don't have the statistics, but my experience in the business world has taught me that many if not most of the jobs you would like to have aren't even posted on all of the sites we spend so much time scanning on the internet. Why is this?

1. Companies are always in the process of assessing their needs and positions are available long before the "posting" process is completed.
2. Many companies first look internally to find the right person for a position. But this doesn't mean the company is wedded to this process if the right applicant from the outside catches someone's attention.
3. Many businesses don't really know their staffing needs but can be taught by an aggressive job applicant.
4. Businesses are always on the look-out for talent that adds real value. One who impresses might just cause a company to create a position and figure out just how you can help later.
5. Timing is a curious thing. You may just catch someone's attention the day before a position is scheduled for posting.

The bottom line is that any business in this environment is always looking for real talent. The key is to show someone you have it before others do.

Many years ago, I left a law firm that specialized in litigation and decided to take that experience and look for a position as an in-house corporate attorney. I was fortunate because one of my best friends was a recruiter and also had a big heart. He truly thrived on helping people. In fact he always had a few extra desks at his office where he would let friends work while looking for a job. I called Bill and told him what I was looking for and he told me to stop in the following Monday.

When I arrived, I honestly expected Bill to hand me a list of companies who were looking for people with my experience and say something like, "I've spoken with these folks and they'd like you to call and schedule an interview."

This is not what happened. Instead, Bill pointed to a desk and told me I could use it, the phone on it, and a book sitting there listing information about all of the companies in the Chicago area. Surprised, I asked, "Well, what do I do with it?"

Bill didn't hesitate, "You go through it, make a list of all the companies that would be large enough to employ in-house attorneys. Then get the name and number of the person in the company at the highest level who will make the final decision on hiring an attorney. If the company has an in-house staff, get the name and number of the General Counsel. If it doesn't yet have an in-house attorney, but is large enough to need one, get the name and number of the President."

"And then what," I stammered.

"Call them," Bill said and walked away.

Over the course of the next couple of days, I very reluctantly did make a list, obtained the right names and numbers to call, in some cases calling the main number to get that person's name and number. I spent a lot of time doing this, pushing off the inevitable moment when I would need to pick up the phone and actually call these people.

When I'd completed the list, I asked Bill what I should say. He told me I would figure it out along the way but to essentially tell the person briefly who I was, what I had done, why I could be of value to his or her company and ask to make an appointment to see them.

Scared straight, I wrote out my "pitch" and started calling the smallest companies on the list first. I'll talk tomorrow about some of the results of these calls in more detail and the benefits of even a flat out refusal to take the call, though there were few.

But to make today's point, over the course of a week, my confidence in delivering my proposal increased and my fears lessened but never flat out left me. Eventually I got to the big companies and at the very end of the day on Friday, I called the General Counsel of one of the largest companies headquartered in the Chicago area, a Fortune 100 company with a global presence.

The General Counsel was not in, but the receptionist was nice enough to put me through to the Assistant General Counsel. I told him who I was, what I had done and why I could help his company. Expecting a "send me a resume" response at best, I got a surprise.

"This is quite a coincidence," the Assistant General Counsel said, "I have had this proposed advertisement for an attorney on my desk for three days for approval and was going to send it to Human Resources to place in the papers on Monday. Frankly, your background doesn't sound like an exact fit but call Mr. Brown on Monday and set an appointment to see him. I'll let him know you will be calling. Have a nice weekend."

I won't describe the emotions that I experienced after that call but will tell you that I called Mr. Brown on Monday and eventually got the job.

What are the Solutions for the Real Estate Problems in the Lowcountry of South Carolina?

Wed, 11 Mar 2009 15:52:23 -0500

I framed the title of this post as a question because I'm not certain I have the answer. I have ideas however, and would invite others from around the world to comment. I'm certain that many of the factors impacting our market, Hilton Head Island and Bluffton, South Carolina, are similar to those affecting other markets, and yet we all likely have our own unique problems.

Let me start by talking a bit about why our southern resort location was touted as one of the best real estate markets in the country several years ago. At least that's what we, here, were saying. The economy was moving along smartly; baby boomers looking for second homes and eventually to retire were to be leaving on the next train from the north for our beautiful year-round climate; cash flow was still available for investors; and even at the peak, many of us said (me included) that compared to other resort communities, Miami, for example, our resdiential real estate was still undervalued. And Bluffton prices were, on average, 20% lower than prices on Hilton Head Island.

And then everything went the wrong way. It's complicated, but let's face it, we learned once again, that home prices can't go up for ever and yet, the whole economy was tied to that fantasy. Arguments will go on for years about Wall Street greed and corrupt CEO's, etc. but to blame our current global economic problems on these factors alone is a bit like blaming an air plane crash on gravity. The real genesis of our global problems was that people chose and, yes, in some cases were improperly drawn, into buying homes they could only afford if prices kept going up and they could continue to pay with equity drawn from those very homes. Couple that with the ability to lend with no money down and a statement that "I have a business but little income" and that mysterious pool of global investment money, always looking for places to put it for the right return, saw American housing as one of the last best remaining spots to invest. This global pool of money logically welcomed the system here that would lend easily,draw equity from homes after intial loans, package them up in neat investment securities and sell them. We were off to the races.

This all started with a noble idea - everyone in our country should have the opportunity to own a home. Gravity, and a regulatory system that couldn't or wouldn't keep up, took it from there.

So where are we:

1. Prices in our area have declined by as much as 40%, in some locations more. If we argued that there was good value three years ago, nobody can say there isn't good value now. The fact that no one can say for certain how low prices will go certainly keeps some buyers on the sidelines, but for first time home buyers, or investors in for even a "short" long haul, a buy today will be a good investment at some point in the future.

2. Folks up north can't sell their homes in order to be able to move to the land of milk and honey in the Lowcountry. The trains south have been derailed for the time being. But this has been a big factor from the beginning of the downturn here. The baby boomers are holding their ground.

3. Loose, reckless lending practices have swung way too far in the opposite direction and I have heard that many potential buyers, even with excellent credit, can't get loans without in some cases 40% down payments.

4. But the most significant problem, from my vantage point, is just plain fear. How can I buy a home, even at fire sale prices, when I'm just not sure I'll have a job tommorw. I think this is the biggest factor and yet the most difficult to tackle in the short term.

It would seem logical to tackle the jobs problem first and there is no doubt it needs to be addressed, but the best way out in my view is to go back to the root cause and step by step solve the problem that started this mess, clear up the foreclosures and get banks lending on reasonable terms. From there confidence will return and gravity will lose some of its pull.

These are thoughts from one not too well versed in the details of finance and credit default swaps and other devices that simply created more opportunities to "buy into" a fantasy; so I welcome comments from others who undoubtedly understand this better than me, here in the Lowcountry and elsewhere.

My Greatest Lesson - The Value of Personal Contact

Wed, 11 Mar 2009 10:04:59 -0500

Here is an excert from my Blog, "Finding Work in Tough Times" http://jobsintoughtimes.blogspot.com/

This is a pretty simple story to stress a very important point in any endeavor.

I was married in college and my wife and then one year old daughter, Jenifer, needed to find a plagh timesce to live during my senior year. I saw an ad in the paper for an apartment that offered a tremendous discount on rent for a resident who would also take on the responsibility for maintaining the grounds. It was a big complex and mowing the lawn in itself was a challenge.

But, we were poor students and I jumped at the opportunity. I did what the many other interested renters did. I called the number on the ad and told an answering service of my interest. The woman on the line politely told me that she would take my number and I should expect a call. She also mentioned that many others had called for the same reason.

When I got off the phone, I thought that I had probably already missed my chance. I was young though, 20, and I didn't over think things too much. I was more prone to act impulsively and I really wanted and needed this. So without much thought, I drove to the complex and started walking around the perimeter of the grounds. Eventually, a man saw me and came over to see just who was trespassing on his property.

I introduced myself and explained that I was very interested in the resident maintenance position and always liked to understand any job I applied for in as much detail as I could. I didn't know that I was talking to the owner until he introduced himself and told me he had received a number of calls and would make a decision by the end of the week. I said that would be great and did he mind if I could call him directly during the week if I had any questions. He somewhat reluctantly gave me his number and I ended the conversation by nervously telling him that "I want the job and will do a great job for you". I explained that my father had a true "green thumb" and I had learned to love taking care of yards as well. I confess that this was perhaps a bit of a stretch since, in my earlier years, Dad usually had all he could do to get me out of bed on Saturday mornings to help in the yard.

Despite my fears, I did call the owner everyday that week to both ask a question and tell him again how much this would mean to my family. Finally on Friday, he called me and asked me to stop by. When I approached him a little later at the complex, he had an unreadable expression on hi s face and I thought that perhaps I'd pushed too hard. He then spoke with a somewhat exasperated tone, "Son, if you work as hard at this job as you have at getting it, it's yours. I like your persistence."

The lesson is obvious and every old school sales person knows it - get in front of the "customer" and ask for the sale. You can't do this very well on the internet. In the next few entries, I'll elaborate on ways that this simple truth still applies today and can be employed in today's high-tech age.

A final bit of advice - buy an old paperback copy of "How to Win Friends and Influence People" by Dale Carnegie. Read a chapter or a few pages a day and when you are done, start over again, and again. . . . Getting a job is about people and how you relate to them.

Finding Work in Tough Times

Tue, 10 Mar 2009 11:33:54 -0500

I havent't given up on real estate, not by a long shot, but over the years I have had many jobs and learned some valuable lessons and techniques for setting oneself away from the crowd in job searches. Many of the principles apply to building a real estate business. So I've created a separate blog to help those who are looking for work in today's difficult environment. Your are welcome to take a look -

http://jobsintoughtimes.blogspot.com/

Here's the first entry:

Do You Really Want to Find a Job?

I have had many jobs in my life - lemonade stands, Evanston Review delivery boy, newspaper deliverer, golf caddie, an egg route (yes we delivered eggs door to door but did so more gently than with the newspapers), summer camp maintenance and kitchen crew worker, camp counselor, lifeguard, bookstore salesperson, bartender, gauze factory packer, night shift movie theater cleaner, lumber yard truck loader, janitor, hod-carrier, electrician apprentice, taxi-cab driver, hospital pharmacy technician, cardio-pulmonary technician, teacher, law-clerk, attorney in private practice, in-house corporate counsel, international attorney in Hong Kong, real estate Broker/Realtor, Master's Degree instructor, adjunct college professor, hotel front desk clerk, photographer, freelance writer and more.....

I've lost jobs, been re-hired at some, quit and left some for personal reasons to seek a better opportunity. From the haywire career path above, you might think that I haven't really found my "passion" in life quite yet. This blog is not really about job passion though it will talk about the need to have a passion for life. It is primarily designed to share some lessons and a large bag of tips and tricks that I've picked up over the years during my own job searches.

I've read most of the popular books about finding one's true passion and certainly do believe in the old-adage that "if you find something you love to do, you'll never work a day in your life." You may not want to, or have the luxury these days, to spend the time creating the intricate charts designed to identify the perfect career for you; you, like many, just need to find work. If you want to spend the time first looking for that niche that best fits your personality, I'd suggest that you talk to your 5 closest friends and/or former employers and ask them candidly what they see as your strengths and weaknesses, what your good at doing and areas you may want to steer clear of. This will do for now.

This blog is going to tell some stories of persistence and good luck and share a wide range of techniques and strategies that I've picked up over the years on how to stand out from the crowd. If you are content sitting in front of the computer all day and submitting resumes with well-crafted and moving cover letters, this may not be the blog for you. If you are interested in more aggressive and unique approaches, read on.

I also want everyone to know that I am at this point in my career looking for a particular job myself. But this blog is not intended to be a job searching tool of my own. It is not a way to market myself for this position. In fact, I'm not going to even mention the goal I have in mind. But I will commit to everyone that I will follow every bit of advice that I give to you and hope to learn more from readers' comments.

You have probably gathered from the above job history that I've been around for awhile. Much of what I talk about here has been gathered from various sources - good friends, great books, advisers, mentors and free spirits. Much of this information has become part of my own life philosophy and at times it will be hard to fairly attribute a specific piece of advice to a single source. But I'll try my best to do so.

Finally, I have had a great deal of help in my life overcoming struggles, self-doubt and landing in positions I never dreamed possible. Many of those who have aided me in my journey are no longer with us. My goal here is to offer the help I can to those who are struggling today. It's a form of pay-back to the many who've helped me along the way.

I welcome comments, questions and requests for specific topics.

Tomorrow - "My Greatest Lesson."

This Local Attraction is More Than a "Marketing Tool"

Thu, 05 Mar 2009 19:27:02 -0600

I wrote the other day about local attractions as a "Marketing Tool". Since that post, I have received feedback and read other blog posts that remind me that this particular attraction in Savannah, The Mighty 8th Air Force Museum, is much more than this. For me it is full of inspiring stories of the bravery and courage of ordinary young men faced with extraordinary circumstances. Each story helps me cope with the particular problems in our business and my life these days and frankly makes me somewhat ashamed of the extent to which I believe that I am facing tough times.

There were 10 men in the Mighty 8^th who received the Medal of Honor, an unprecedented number from one segment of the war effort. At the Museum, you can see the pictures and read the stories of why these men received the Medal of Honor, many posthumously. Here is one of those stories.

First Lieutenant Jack W. Mathis was born in 1921, in Texas and enlisted in the Army on June 12, 1940. He served in an artillery unit until he learned that his brother Mark had enlisted in the Army Air Corps. Jack Mathis immediately transferred into his brother's unit and received aviation cadet training at San Angelo, Texas. Both brothers were trained as bombardiers and upon graduation, Jack Mathis was assigned to the 303d Bombardment Group of the Eighth Air Force In England, where he flew 14 missions.

On March 19, 1943, Mathis, 21 years old at the time, was lead bombardier on a mission over Germany. The lead bombardier's role in these missions was critical. He was responsible for directing the bombing of the entire squadron. I will let the Medal of Honor Citation speak for itself:

Medal of Honor citation

Rank and organization: First Lieutenant, U.S. Army Air Corps, 359th Bomber Squadron, 303d Bomber Group. Place and date: Over Vegesack, Germany, March 18, 1943. Entered service at: San Angelo, Tex. Born: September 25, 1921, San Angelo, Tex. G.O. No.: 38, July 12, 1943.

Citation:

For conspicuous gallantry and intrepidity above and beyond the call of duty in action with the enemy over Vegesack, Germany, on March 18, 1943. 1st Lt. Mathis, as leading bombardier of his squadron, flying through intense and accurate antiaircraft fire, was just starting his bomb run, upon which the entire squadron depended for accurate bombing, when he was hit by the enemy antiaircraft fire. His right arm was shattered above the elbow, a large wound was torn in his side and abdomen, and he was knocked from his bomb sight to the rear of the bombardier's compartment. Realizing that the success of the mission depended upon him, 1st Lt. Mathis, by sheer determination and willpower, though mortally wounded, dragged himself back to his sights, released his bombs, then died at his post of duty. As the result of this action the airplanes of his bombardment squadron placed their bombs directly upon the assigned target for a perfect attack against the enemy. 1st Lt. Mathis' undaunted bravery has been a great inspiration to the officers and men of his unit.

Jack's brother Mark was on base when the plane carrying his brother's body landed after the mission. At his own request, Mark Mathis was transferred into Jack Mathis' crew to replace him as bombardier. When the crew completed its tour of duty, Mark Mathis stayed in combat and was killed in action over the North Sea in May 1943.

Somehow, I don't feel that my own problems are quite so important after studying the stories of these brave young men, then and now. My father served with both Mark and Jack Mathis and I appreciate that but for a few events that went one way instead of another, I would not be here today.

These stories, help me face each day with much less self-absorption and before I do anything else, ask myself, "How can I be of help to someone less fortunate than me today?"

Do You Market Your Local Attractions?

Sun, 01 Mar 2009 10:44:41 -0600

As a Realtor, lawyer and writer in Bluffton, South Carolina, I have often visited one of the most fascinating "attractions" in our area, specifically, the Mighty 8^thAir Force Museum in Savannah. It is of tremendous interest to many of my clients here and around the country who either were in World War II, or more recent wars, and the surprising number of people of my generation, the Baby Boomers, who have a connection to WW II through a parent or other relative.

My father was in the "Mighty 8th" and the following story appeared in papers throughout the country in August 2003

Watch Survives WWII, Follows Him Home - ASSOCIATED PRESS

EVANSTON, Ill. - Jim Hoel is glad to have his watch back, even though it had stopped working since he last saw it during World War II. The last time he remembers wearing the old Gallet chronometer was on May 17, 1943, the day he used it while navigating a B-26 Marauder before the bomber was forced to ditch in a canal in the Netherlands . He knows he no longer had the elaborate watch when he arrived at a German prisoner-of-war camp a few days later.

The watch arrived at his home last week in a package sent from England by a truck driver, Peter Cooper, 56, who found it in the possession of an elderly neighbor in the village of Kirton , 75 miles northeast of London .

"It's just eerie, isn't it? That was 60 years ago. I've sort of got gooseflesh," Hoel, 82, told the Chicago Tribune.

Cooper said the neighbor, "Tiny" Baxter, 89, told him his mother had given it to him.

"Whether she found it or it was given to her, I do not know," Baxter, a retired carpenter, said in a telephone interview.

The watch, an enlistment present from the bank where Hoel worked before the war, had his name and Evanston address on the back. Cooper was able to track him down at his new address using the Internet and friends who had contacts in the United States . He persuaded his neighbor to give the watch to him so he could forward it to Hoel.

Hoel said the B-26 was one of a flight of 10 that encountered heavy antiaircraft fire while en route to bomb a power plant near Amsterdam . He and three others of the plane's six crewmen survived. He spent the next two years in German POW camps.

The story was also published in our local paper, The Island Packet, and papers throughout the country. It has also reached "Ripley's Believe It Or Not!" I am currently working on a book about my father's entire story over time. Dad is now 87 years old.

To bring this back to real estate, I'm not selling many homes these days but I am meeting many people with fascinating stories themselves with less than six degrees of separation from our local treasure, The Mighty 8th Air Force Museum. Stories connect people and your local treasures will do the same.

You can read my about my father's entire World War II experience and the many things that have occurred after his "reunion" with his watch at the "War Watch" blog - http://warandtime.blogspot.com/

How Do Energy Costs Impact the Real Estate Market?

Fri, 16 May 2008 13:31:03 -0500

I'm excited. Commentators from all sides of the economic arena are telling us that we may be about to see something we typically only read about in textbooks - real free market supply and demand principles in action and in an important and very visible aspect of our daily lives. Provided the Saudis don't increase oil production and our government doesn't dip into the Strategic Oil Reserve, it appears that something "classic" may be happening right now that should lower the price at the pump all by itself. People are finally changing their behavior. I'm one of them. Just last week I started using my wife's VW Bug whenever I get the chance while Pam takes my gas guzzling Volvo for her shorter jaunt to work. I now plan my errands and carefully see if I can postpone a short trip and consolidate several into one. My list goes on but more importantly, anecdotal evidence seems to show that many of us are taking steps to reduce our demand for gasoline. Most of my friends in Bluffton, South Carolina have altered their driving habits in some way. If memory serves me right, my college economics professor along with Paul Samuelson's text, clearly told me that with less demand and a stable supply, prices go down. Right?

I lived in Hong Kong in the mid 90's and many say that Hong Kong then, and to a large extent even today, despite the turn-over to China, is one of the last bastions of true free enterprise. Milton Friedman believed that "the only plausible explanation for the different rates of growth (between the UK and Hong Kong) is "socialism in Britain and free enterprise and free markets in Hong Kong." But enough of pure economic thought. The question I want to ask is if we do see a cap on gas prices and if our behavior actually does produce the expected result of lowering those prices, what impact will this have on our real estate market. Let's first look at the impact we have seen and can expect from higher energy prices.

First, when energy prices do rise as they have been for some time now, prices start to rise generally throughout the economy. We've all seen this. Starting with basic transportation, everything that needs to be transported is costing more these days. And that list goes on as well. If these higher fuel costs aren't matched by a higher corresponding increase in productivity, inflationary pressures just continue to mount. We would then expect to see lenders looking for some way to offset these pressures and raising interest rates would be the expected next step. I've already said (Bridging the Gap in Today's Real Estate Market) that those buyers sitting on the sidelines today waiting for the buy of the century may look back in the next several months and wish they had acted now with the combination of rates and home prices at a point we may not see again for quite some time.

See also the May 6, 2008 Wall Street Journal Article, "The Housing Crisis is Over", WSJ.com - Opinion: The Housing Crisis Is Over. As the WSJ Article points out, the key factor that started the real estate slump is the same factor that will bring us out of it - affordability. The author optimistically points out that the recent overall decline in real estate prices has brought us back to the point where it now takes "19% of monthly income for the average home buyer....to purchase a house." This percantage had reached as high as 25% just before the bust in 2006. At this point and above, folks just couldn't afford to buy homes and they stopped doing so, pretty suddenly. But at the current 19%, homes are "back to being as affordable as during the best of times in the 1990s." If energy costs do continue to rise, the factors above could delay what some predict could be a pretty quick recovery from a mild or phantom recession, and depress housing sales even more as rates increase.

Well, if Milton Friedman is right and my own behavior and that of my friends is any indicator, we may all be doing this whole market a favor as we ride our bikes and actually pay attention to speed limits. And if we start to see the price at the pump decline, WSJ may be right. Keep your eye on the pump and honk when you see a Bug.

Can We Predict a Bottom?

Wed, 30 Apr 2008 04:58:36 -0500

I confess I can't, but perhaps there are others who may have some useful ideas. In recent days I've spoken to several people who've offered some insights. I'll share them below and invite others to chime in.

A friend who has been in the business longer than me recently opined that one factor that characterizes the end of both bull and bear markets is a rapid acceleration of panic. What he meant is that historically, at the end of either market, one sees a rapid increase in the rate of price increases or decreases respectively. If this is true, yesterday's AP report that "Home Prices Fall at Record Clip" might be encouraging. The closely watched seven-year-old S&P's Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed that home prices in 20 cities fell almost 13 percent in February from a year earlier. This is a record for the Index.

In my area, the lowcountry of South Carolina and Georgia, prices in Hilton Head and Bluffton, South Carolina have followed this trend and it appears that in the past three months there has been a noticeable increase in the number of downward listing price adjustments. But the national home price index has been showing declines in prices for 9 months now. In this country we are still coming to grips with the national myth prevalent several years earlier that housing prices will always increase so it's natural that many see a declining market as a blip from the norm and that some cosmic force is always pulling us back to the "good old days" of, well, 2004. I hope this is true but I lived in Asia in the mid 1990's and patterns of long term real estate price declines in countries like Japan are haunting. Again, people a lot smarter than me tell me that macro economic conditions here will prevent a similar long term housing malaise.

Perhaps the best common sense assessment I've read recently came from Charles Hughes Smith in his April 23, 2008 blog, "Want to Know When Housing Has Bottomed? Here's How." Mr. Smith believes that the "bottom will be close when buying real estate make sense as a sound business proposition." It's well worth reading his entire piece at http://www.oftwominds.com/blogapr08/RE-bottom4-08.html.

Any thoughts out there or better yet evidence that shows you've reached a bottom in your market?

Dream of America Concert in Hilton Head Island, South Carolina

Mon, 28 Apr 2008 18:27:58 -0500

"Under all is the land. Upon its wise utilization and widely allocated ownership depend the survival and growth of free institutions and of our civilization." So begins the Preamble of the Code of Ethics and Standards of Practice of the National Association of Realtors. I was immediately impressed with this powerful prose which I read during one of my introductory courses. I am equally impressed, and proud to be a part of, The Hilton Head Symphony Orchestra's own celebration of our "land" on May 5, 2008 with its "Dream of America" series.

Directed by Music Director and Conductor Mary Woodmansee Green, the orchestra will perform Peter Boyer's moving piece about Ellis Island which recounts the story of immigrants from seven different countries who arrived in America between 1908-1940. The series will feature dramatic music, actors, and visual projections. Also on the program will be American classics by Adolphus Hailstork, Charles Ives, and George Gershwin. The performance will take place at Hilton Head's First Presbyterian Church.

Following this theme and in keeping with the Symphony's mission to "reach" out to the community, in partnership with The Heritage Library Foundation headed by Bill Alstaetter, residents of Hilton Head Island, sister city Bluffton and the overall area were invited to submit family member, ancestor or their own stories of their personal "Dream of America". Stories or essays were to deal "with some aspect of immigrating to America and were to involve life-altering experiences, challenges and/or relations/connections with special personages, either public or private who inspired the writers at some particular point in their journey."

Holocaust survivor Sophie Miklos was the winner of the adult division of the Dream of America Stories Project. Her story, "My American Dream," was one of survival both from the Holocaust and the early struggles to survive in a new country.

My story, "A Matter of Time," was voted second-place winner. I recount the story of my father's "reunion" with a watch he lost, 60 years earlier, during the crash of his B-26 Marauder during World War II and my great grandfather's arrival in New York Harbor from Norway in the late 1800's. Third place went to Barbara Baumgardner and honorable mentions to Richard E. Nelson, Roger Carlson and Leo G. Roell.

Ms. Miklos captured the spirit of this moving program which we are privileged to be a part of: "I am grateful to the United States for the icing on the cake on our American dream by enabling us to spend our twilight years on Hilton Head Island where beauty abounds."

South Carolina Property Tax Changes Could Stimulate Market

Fri, 25 Apr 2008 07:12:13 -0500

The South Carolina State House passed a bill unanimously on Wednesday of this week that may have a positive impact on real estate sales in Beaufort County and the state as a whole, provided the State Senate follows suit. Current state law requires an immediate increase of the assessed value of residential and commercial property when property is sold or extensively improved. The new value is based upon the new market price, which in the case of a transfer is the sales price.

The new bill delays the increase in assessed value to the date when each South Carolina County completes its next reassessment, which occurs by law every five years. The next reassessment in Beaufort County is scheduled in 2009. Typically assessed values on property are significantly lower than market value and many home-buyers in the recent past have been shocked to learn that the taxes they will pay are as high as twice that paid by the previous homeowner. In some cases in Bluffton and Hilton Head Island, this has lead to contract cancellations.

Though nobody would say that the current market slump is a result of property tax policy, in a market that shows some signs of stabilizing, any stimulus can have a very positive impact. This may be another factor, along with price declines and historically low interest rates, that convince buyers that current conditions are about as favorable as they will ever be.

Where Should a Listing Agent's Marketing Really Be Directed?

Thu, 24 Apr 2008 06:41:13 -0500

Homeowners I meet who are interested in selling their home ask a lot of questions about the advertising plans I have for their home. And it is customary in the real estate business to promote the many unique and creative methods we have developed to find buyers for their property. Real estate magazines flood the market with listings, most of which prominently promote our own name and logo as well. But there are other strategies that may actually bring more buyers to our listings.

Cynics would say that one reason we place so many of these advertisements is (1) to demonstrate to the seller how active we are in promoting the sale of their home and (2) with striking personal listing advertisements, we are able to attract even more sellers who want to list with us.

Of course, I do actually believe that listing advertisements directed nationally to buyers are important despite the intended or unintended consequences above; But I received an email today from a Realtor announcing a new listing with a link in her message to a website with a beautiful description of the home for sale and a dozen spectacular pictures. Nowhere to be found on the site was any mention of the listing agent. In the same vein, I attended a broker's open house recently where I picked up a striking brochure with a blank space for contact information. Both of these Realtors invite and encourage other agents to use this material liberally as their own.

Sellers themselves don't often appreciate that a listing agent does more for them when marketing efforts are directed at other Realtors, not the public generally. Realtors who understand this and creatively find ways to empower their "team" of other Realtors throughout their region and beyond may exponentially increase the exposure of their listings.

Rose Hill Plantation in Bluffton, South Carolina Makes a Comeback

Tue, 22 Apr 2008 04:23:10 -0500

"We have just been advised by the golf club ownership that the club will be ceasing operations as of noon today. We will provide you with further information as it becomes available." With those words in January, 2006, golf at Rose Hill Plantation in Bluffton, South Carolina suddenly ceased.

A little more than a year later, a blogger summarized the subsequent deterioration, "Does anyone notice the weeds and tall grass growing all over the golf course at Rose Hill Plantation? Why continue to water the grass if nobody will take care of it? It is the most visible golf course in Bluffton from Highway 278. How many newcomers are driving down and they see that?"

Today all of that has changed after the Rose Hill Property Owners Association voted late in 2007 to buy the course for $2.3 million. In January, the association hired the Signature Golf Group out of Myrtle Beach to manage the course and in spite of many dire past predictions, the course is on track to open in September. It means everything to the future of this community and is a wonderful rebirth story.

The club will offer membership programs though most of the play at Rose Hill will be public. There have been some significant changes to the course. Nine of the original 27 holes have been removed. The course will open as an 18-hole facility with most of the 9-hole South Course being converted to a maintained park area. There is consideration now being given to creating a lake and aviary on the bulk of this land. Holes have been realigned so that the old East Course will now serve as the front nine and the old West Course will become the back nine. A unique practice space has been created. Instead of a driving range, players will now be able to warm up on two holes dedicated solely for that purpose.

With the re-opening in only five months you will see a lot of work being done in the coming weeks. And while there is much more to be accomplished over the next several months to prepare Rose Hill for public play, expect to see steady improvement as you drive along 278 this summer.

Try a "House History" to Bring Life to Your Listings

Sat, 19 Apr 2008 06:48:52 -0500

Studies suggest that the decision to buy a home is often tied to an emotional reaction a prospective purchaser experiences in the first few minutes during a home visit. Perhaps there are ways that Realtors can enhance this experience with a house history. While it's helpful to tell a prospect how nice it will be to enjoy morning coffee from the bay window overlooking the lagoon in back, people always connect with stories, and helping buyers visualize the people who years earlier experienced the same view peaks interest.

Don't let the fact that the home you are selling was built in 2006 deter you; rather ask the question, what would someone have been looking at if they had been sitting in that spot 100, 200 or 300 years earlier. In my region, the Lowcountry of South Carolina, there is a rich history surrounding every home that can be cultivated and re-told with a little research and creativity.

In this very competitive market, I've seen more Realtors thinking outside of the box and developing house histories to enhance their listings. These include everything from a home's design, construction and upgrade geneology to more emotional histories that include fascinating anecdotes about prior owners, architects and visitors.

We've all heard our clients insist that their home is unique and it's worth the effort to listen carefully and find ways to tell a story about their home. I've written a bit about my family's first home in this country at "Telling a Home's Story," http://activerain.com/blogsview/466753/Telling-a-Home-s. I'll share some of my current clients' home histories in the coming weeks.

Dual Annual Home Tours in the Lowcountry

Fri, 18 Apr 2008 17:58:40 -0500

As a spring gift, two annual tours of homes in the South Carolina and Georgia coastal lowcountry are on tap in April and May.

I had the honor of judging some of the spectacular new homes for the 2008 Greater Savannah Parade of Homes featuring homes in Georgia's Bryan, Chatham, Effingham and Liberty Counties. The Parade of Homes is open to the public on April 26-27 and May 3-4. You are in for a treat. More information can be found at http://www.savannahparade.com.

On April 27, 2008 from 1 to 5 pm, just up the road in South Carolina, Bluffton Self Help will host its annual Greater Bluffton Tour of Homes. This tour will feature homes, some of which will be seen for the first time by the public, in Belfair Plantation, Palmetto Bluff and along the May River.

Bluffton Self Help's mission is "to help those individuals and families in the greater Bluffton area who are in a crisis situation and are in need of short-term emergency assistance." More information can be found at http://www.blufftonselfhelp.org.

Bridging the Gap in Today's Real Estate Market

Wed, 16 Apr 2008 08:47:07 -0500

I've seen more and more blogs and comments over the past weeks that highlight a double-edged phenomena that might just be a natural phase of a declining real estate market with widely varying predictions of an upswing.

On the seller's side, we have the natural reluctance for owners to face reality and set the right price from the outset or lower the price when necessary. I hear the frequent appeal, "but my house is unique" in this or that respect. These appeals need to be addressed by Realtors. If the home is in fact unique, it is certainly our job to recognize or indentify that fact and find creative ways to both market that uniqueness and translate it into something a bank appraisal will recognize. But in the final analysis, in addition to a good comparable market analysis, letting the seller know that unless a cash offer is made, a lender's appraisal will control, may be one of the most effective ways to help your selling client face reality.

On the other side, there may be more buyers out there than current inventories would suggest. But I meet many who seem to be convinced that the real estate market is collapsing and will only propose very low offers convinced that the seller is, or should be, in a panic mode. Some "low-ballers" have legitimate concerns, a fear that they may be buying into a community which will lead to a loss if they are forced for some reason to sell that property in the relative short-term. In either case, I see many buyers missing out on real opportunities in this market that may in fact never come again. One of our roles as Realtors, despite the many unknowns in this type of market, is to understand all of the critical factors that come to bear on the appreciative value of a given community and to effectively communicate this to clients.

Bridging this gap can be difficult because it is hard to predict just how far things may head in one direction before turning around. The market conditions we see today are, in many respects, unlike any most of us have ever seen. But I try to keep coming back to a few basic judgments I have made in helping both sides bridge this gap. First, in my market, the Lowcountry of South Carolina, prices have truly declined and sellers need to understand this point at the outset. If this fact is ignored, a price will be paid if there are more declines. On the buyer side, the sky is not falling and buyers need to recognize that the deals available today are better than anyone would have dreamed of two years ago. Certainly, there is always the chance that better ones may be available down the road but factoring this into an offer now may be something that is regretted later. I am certain that someday many people will look back on this specific time and recognize that greed cost them a wonderful opportunity. A reasonable price in today's market will almost certainly make for a good long term investment.

Baby Boomer Bemusement

Tue, 15 Apr 2008 06:26:00 -0500

We are waiting here in the southeast's Lowcountry, somewhat patiently, for the great migration of baby boomers that is supposed to happen, well, now. As a baby boomer myself, in a slow market, I often reflect on the 50's. In fact, only last week a friend got me thinking when he asked if I ever wondered what became of my baseball card collection - the shoe-boxes full of Willy Mays, Mickey Mantle or Bob Feller cards or, in my case, being a Chicago boy, the heroic poses of Early Wynn, Nellie Fox or Ted Kluszewski? I actually have thought of this when I calculate what those cards might be worth today, if I still had them. He thinks our mothers may be to blame and he may be on to something. This conspiracy theory starts with the times.

I am a relatively early boomer and for as long as I can remember during the 1950's, I was rarely without my baseball glove, even during the winter, my "top ten" cards, for emergency trading purposes, and a wad of 6 or 7 pieces of Double Bubble gum jammed in my right cheek to look the part of tobacco chewing Nellie Fox, my hero, who was to lead the Chicago White Sox to the 1959 World Series.

I was not alone. Throughout the 50's baseball was everywhere because, well, one heck of a lot of kids were outside, almost all of the time, playing it. It wasn't only that we didn't have Game Boys or 500 TV channels or computers or texting to keep us occupied inside; our parents actually kicked us out of the house in the morning and strongly suggested that we stay out until the street lights came on or we were hit by a car or lost an arm. But more to the point, there were simply a lot of us kids in existence. Between the years 1946 and 1964, the baby boom years, 75.8 million little Nellie Foxes were born and everywhere you looked in the 1950's kids were playing ball, pick-up games, little league, pony league, alone throwing a ball against a garage door or off a roof or through a neighbor's window. It was glorious.

For the 5-year period between 1956 and 1960, 21.2 million boomers were born, nearly 1 1/2 times the number born between 1941 and 1945, and the largest for any 5-year period in the 20th century. Boomers today represent 28% of the U.S. population. But in 1964, they represented about 40%. More than a third of the population was under 19 years old! And we were all outside and, by today's standards, in constant danger. We didn't wear helmets anywhere, or while riding anything. Our jungle gyms were not padded. In fact some were built on concrete. Cuts, scrapes, cracked heads and broken parts were the norm and it seemed just fine.

But our lives "outside" were not always easy on mothers. I recall playing baseball with my brother, two years younger than I, when Gil ran after a fly ball, fell flat in a field of prickly bushes and let out a horrific scream. As always, the event emptied the ball field as everyone ran to assess the damage. Gil was sprawled out awkwardly with a one-inch thorn sticking in the white of his right eye. A hushed silence ensued as I steadied myself and knelt over Gil to see what I could do. Not knowing any better, I just pulled the thorn out and we all jumped back as blood flowed from Gil's eye, enough blood to generate another common happening, the mass run to Mom.

I pulled Gil up and the 10 or so of us took off directly to my house. On the way we gathered about ten more curious kids and by the time we reached my front steps, my mother was already out and waiting, as were the mothers up and down the block, each alerted by the collective screaming that warned of our arrival. And, as was typical, the first to arrive had only heard of the actual accident by loose word of mouth along the way. "Gil poked his eye out!" Terry bellowed to my mother and she let out her scream and tore into the crowd throwing kids out of her way as she grabbed my brother and looked into his eye. By that time of course the bleeding had stopped and my mother in fact could not even tell which eye had been poked. Believing Gil was to be half blinded for life and discovering nothing of the sort led to a familiar finale with my mother's strong desire to actually blind both my brother and me. And so it went.

At any given time during this era, if one was positioned high above any neighborhood in America, I'm convinced they would witness daily 4 or 5 of these damaged kid brigades rushing through the streets toward an already stressed out mother. At the end of each day, when dads came home and asked "How was your day?" mothers could rarely convey the extent of the trauma they had suffered. "Your youngest son came home with an eye poked out," my mother would say and when dad laughed and said, "Let's see her, son," she knew that no one was ever going to really understand. I believe that were the Surgeon General to have discovered in the 1950's what we know today, that drinking during pregnancy is a very bad thing, he would have been largely ignored.

My friend thinks that somewhere along the way, as they struggled to live with the dangers of a kid dominated world, mothers secretly started to think of ways to get even. He recently stumbled across evidence suggesting the plot was only too real - a brief blurb in our local paper about a very successful, though little known, Mutual Fund which originated in 1966 (the very year I went off to college by the way) and has been growing ever since. It's name? The TMBCR Fund. Need I say more? The Mother's Baseball Card Relief Fund will continue to grow and well, I guess they deserve it.

Telling a Home's Story

Sun, 13 Apr 2008 09:26:18 -0500

Much has been written about the responsibilities of Realtors in working with clients to set the right price for their home. It's a vital part of the sale process, particularly in this market. All of the skills and expertise that Realtors possess come to bear on this responsibility - knowledge of the local and regional markets, neighborhood trends, technology for performing accurate comparative market analyses, etc. Yet sometimes, I fear the increasingly sophisticated tools of our trade pull us more and more to view our clients' homes as commodities rather than palaces of repose for the many memories that our clients have created and will create.

Understanding a home's "story" and finding creative ways to convey it to consumers can make a home more valuable in any market, particularly in today's competitive market for sellers. I'm going to include in this blog the stories of some of the unique homes that have caught my fancy in my market, the Lowcountry of South Carolina, and elsewhere.

The first is a home in Canby, Minnesota that tells my story.

Olaf Hoel was born in Tonset, Norway in 1841. The eighth of 10 children, he immigrated to this country where on July 16, 1876, he was ordained a minister at Washington Prairie near Decorah, Iowa. In August of that year, Olaf moved to Canby, Minnesota where he became the Pastor for the St. Stephens Congregation of Canby. Reverend Hoel was my great-grandfather.

On August 19, 1876, Olaf married Mary Lund of Canby. They brought 8 children into the world, the youngest of whom was Omer, my grandfather. It was in Canby that Reverend and Mary Hoel have left a legacy that my family cherishes today. Mary's father built a home and sold it to Olaf in 1903. It was "one of the best resident properties in Canby and has, without a doubt, the finest surroundings." The "49 day wonder" Victorian home was built by John Lund in 1891 and eventually enlivened with decorative balconies, a turret and gingerbread trim. The home remained in my family for the next half century and when finally sold went somewhat into disrepair.

But in 1976, the town of Canby recognized the potential and looked "into the possibility of starting a Canby Museum" with the Lund-Hoel House. The town purchased the home and over the years to follow was able to retrieve from my family members many of the items and furnishings that were in the home at the turn of the century, including my great grandfather's Bible and his daughter Nella Hoel's "prized Everett upright piano." Eventually, the home looked as it had when Olaf's family first resided there.

The "Lund-Hoel House" now is a museum on the National Register of Historic Homes. You can pay it a visit online at www.canbymuseums.org. More about the home in later entries.

The "Ups" of a Down Market in Hilton Head and Bluffton

Thu, 10 Apr 2008 06:09:06 -0500

This is a "sequel" to my April 7, 2008 blog entry, "A Real Estate Silver Lining," focusing on the real estate market in Bluffton, Hilton Head Island and the Lowcountry of South Carolina.

It's easy to become discouraged about the housing market. Pick up any paper and read about record foreclosures, the plunge in new home sales and now, recession. With the endless flow of bleak news, many consumers just assume it's a bad time to do anything with real estate. But in every market there are opportunities for certain segments of the population. Today, particularly in the Lowcountry, there are a number of situations where people have more opportunities than they may think.

First Time Buyers

Excess inventory and evidence of flat and, in some cases, falling prices, have made it tough on sellers. But for those who only want to buy a home, this is perhaps the best market we've seen in a decade. Right now, with a little patience, a buyer should be able to find just what he or she wants in a home and at the right price. This is particularly true in Bluffton where home prices were already 20 to 25 percent below those on Hilton Head Island.

Many potential first-time buyers aren't looking however because they've been frightened by reports of tight credit. While lending requirements have certainly tightened with the subprime crisis, a wide array of new and different programs are available and rates are low. According to Jason Natale of The Money Store in Bluffton: "First time homebuyer loans allow buyers to get into a home more easily with many options and looser credit requirements. These programs offer such things as very low or no down payment, limited fees, and closing cost assistance, all at a very affordable interest rates."

Second Home Buyers

In 1998, while on vacation here, we bought a second home on Hilton Head. We were scared to death but were able to cover most of our annual costs renting to other vacationers. In 2005 we sold the home for a considerable profit. Many today feel they've missed this opportunity.

Yet for all the appreciation we've experienced over the past 10 years, ours was still a relatively under-valued coastal resort community before the recent market down-turn. The current "dip" offers the same opportunities for second home buyers as first-timers. This is particularly true for foreign buyers who can take advantage of the falling dollar.

Moving Up

One of the most common complaints I hear as a Realtor is "I'd love to move, but I can't sell my current home." Some are waiting for the market to "pick up" before selling, forgetting that the market rebound, when it inevitably arrives, will increase the price of the home they buy as well.

The simple fact is that homes in our area are selling when they are prepared to show well and, most importantly, priced realistically. When sellers who want to move set the right price, they can focus on the same expansive buying opportunities that the other groups above enjoy. What they may sacrifice on the selling end can be made up on the new purchase. Additionally, the likelihood of moving to a better neighborhood means greater long term appreciation potential.

Conclusion

There is good reason for optimism here. Experts predict that over 50% of the 75 million baby boomers will be looking to move to the Sun Belt in the coming years, with most of that growth coming along the coasts. Those who take the time to examine their own particular situation carefully may very well find that despite the national hand-wringing about the real estate market, things aren't really so bad.

Worry Away

Tue, 08 Apr 2008 20:30:41 -0500

I'm a novice here and have given a lot of thought to the "theme" I'd like to develop on this blog. In the past 24 hours, I've also received a wealth of wonderful advice from savvy Active Rain devotees. It's all been very helpful and I thank one and all. But in the final analysis, I have no idea what direction I'll head. Though I'd like to follow the good advice that I stay focused on core real estate issues, today I'm taking a day off and writing about something I imagine many of us in the real estate business grapple with to some extent daily - worry. I am a big believer in the power of a positive attitude but there are times in this market when the facts before me suggest that worry is appropriate.

A friend recently told me that he has discovered a means of eliminating worry, completely. My friend schedules personal worry sessions. From 5:00 to 5:05 pm, everyday, he stops whatever he is doing and focuses on all his worries with as much mental energy as he can muster. Should a worry pop into his mind during any other part of his day, he simply puts the thought out of his mind and saves it for his worry session. He tells me that it works, in part because he finds it so ludicrous to be worrying so intently by choice that he is typically laughing at himself three minutes into his single daily session.

Whether or not my friend succeeds, I give him credit for trying. Folks not plagued by worry don't appear to have any particular skills that I don't have nor are they more or less intelligent than most of us. But they do understand one thing that I sometimes forget. Worry is an inside job. There is not a person, place or upcoming event that can make me worry, unless I let it. It is only what I think about these things, how I choose to react, that produces worry. That's just semantics you will say. If I know I will be fired tomorrow, there is no way I won't think about it, so whether it's my impending termination or my thoughts about it, the result is the same, I'm worried sick. But a fortunate few, no matter the severity of a situation, seem to avoid worry by controlling their thoughts.

In the early 1940's, Dr. Victor Frankel became a concentration camp prisoner in Nazi Germany. He suffered unimaginable physical and emotional torture, at one point witnessing the murder of his own family. And yet through all of this Dr. Frankel noticed that there were always a few prisoners, who despite their personal agony, would regularly walk amongst the others, sharing their last bits of food and their care and concern. While those good souls certainly had reason to worry, they apparently didn't, and Dr. Frankel came away from his experience with a valuable lesson. While it is indeed possible to strip almost every single freedom from a human being, there is one freedom that can never be taken from us - the ability to choose our attitude in any given set of circumstances. That freedom is always available, if we choose to exercise it.

And why not exercise it? Successful non-worriers choose to live their lives positively and joyfully while waiting on "worrisome" events, to unfold. Joel Osteen in his best seller, Your Best Life Now, puts it this way. It will take time for any prayer to be answered. The real key is "how are we going to wait" in the interim. "If you know you have to wait anyway, why not make a decision to enjoy your life while waiting?" As I think about, maybe my friend's idea isn't so silly after all.

I recently pulled a dusty copy of The Power of Positive Thinking, by Norman Vincent Peale, off my shelf. I highly recommend it. Written in 1956, the book remains a classic to this day and is one of the most helpful books I have ever read. I have never understood why books like this are rarely, if ever, taught in school. Well, I'm not going to worry about that, at least not now. I'll wait until 5:00 pm and tomorrow it's back to business.

A Real Estate Silver Lining

Mon, 07 Apr 2008 06:15:45 -0500

Originally published by Rick Hoel in Bluffton Today in August, 2007.

Although 2005 spawned one of the "hottest" real estate markets in Beaufort County history, today prices have declined significantly and there is real debate about when to expect a turn-around. There are now over 6200 listings in the Hilton Head Area Multiple Listing Service. Two years ago there was a third that amount.

But tough times encourage long term thinking and discerning buyers and sellers who carefully examine the unique characteristics of our market can be successful. Here are a few of the factors that distinguish our market from Miami, Pittsburgh or Peoria, features which may otherwise go unnoticed in a rising market where good decisions are not necessarily rewarded or bad ones punished. These are some of the factors that international investors scrutinize in making investment decisions:

Appreciation

The Hilton Head "story" is unique. We got a late start. Until 1956, there were no bridges to the Island. There was no electricity or telephone service and island travel was by horse drawn cart on dirt paths. When Charles Frasier acquired Sea Pines he found a "clean slate" untouched by development and was able to develop a world class resort model that set the stage for phenomenal capital appreciation. Despite the recent downturn, for the past 10 years, the average price for a single-family home is up 63.7%. Villas are up 168% and lots have increased 145%.

Value

For all this appreciation, if one compares the Hilton Head area to other world-class coastal communities, real estate here is an exceptional value. The highest price oceanfront property on Hilton Head is $9M. Oceanfront properties at comparable coastal areas are much pricier:

Miami Beach $15M

Palm Beach $28.9M

Naples $18.5M

Sea Island $19.8M

Outer Banks $27M

Resort Effect

Hilton Head's world-class reputation can't be overstressed. Tripadvisor.com has ranked our area as one of the top 5 golf vacation destinations in the world. The Island's infrastructure is the beneficiary of hundreds of millions of investment dollars and over 2 million visitors are drawn here annually.

What many don't realize is that even better values are available in areas surrounding premier resort locations. This point was captured about Bluffton in the July 15, 2007 issue of Parade Magazine:

"A lot of places are brand names, but just because they're more expensive doesn't mean they're the best investment," says Andrew Schiller, president of Location, Inc., which runs the search site Neighborhoodscout.com. "People have heard of Hilton Head - it's very famous and expensive - but just a town away is Bluffton, S.C. where homes are 20% to 25% less. You want to find places that are in the best position to run up in value and, of course, that you love."

Southeast Center

For several years we've heard that the Hardeeville-Bluffton corridor is poised to grow over 800% in the next 15 years. There are three reasons to heed these predictions - location, location, location. Locals know that the "Exit 8 to 170 Corridor" links downtown Savannah, Beaufort and the Hilton Head beaches but folks viewing from afar see a bigger picture - a southern nexus only a short distance from Greenville, Charleston, Columbia and Augusta and not much further from Florida, Atlanta and the north Georgia mountains.

Importantly the corridor is acting as if it's important as well. It's telling that a major University and College now call western Beaufort and eastern Jasper Counties home to their newest campuses. The USCB New River campus has already had an impact and is meeting growing regional needs with community outreach and continuing education programs.

Look Who's Coming

Over the next 30 years the largest single group of Americans in history will be moving. 75.8 million Americans were born between 1946 and 1964. With a total 202 million born between 1940 and 1994, one can easily see the impact that 75 million retiring boomers will have on American life. Kiplinger predicts that the population of our "Sun-Belt" will increase by 52%, with most of that growth along the coasts.

This may not soothe the sting for homeowners who must sell today, but we should be encouraged with the long term prospects for our market. All of these characteristics are dynamic. How they evolve and influence our growth will depend upon the decisions we make over the next several years. That we live in an area so new in its development that we can realistically influence the outcome is perhaps the most compelling silver lining of all.

c2007 Rick Hoel