Rod's Blog

Phoenix Light Rail Grand Opening

2008-10-28T14:55:25Z

Planning is in progress for the grand opening of the Phoenix-Tempe-Mesa new light rail system. From the Valley Metro web page:

The grand opening of METRO light rail is Saturday and Sunday, Dec. 27 and 28, with all train rides free. Station celebrations will be held Saturday from 10 a.m. to 5 p.m. Saturday activities will occur along the entire 20-mile METRO alignment. There will be music, activities and exhibits at many park-n-ride and light rail station locations. Because we expect a lot of Valley residents to join us in marking this piece of Arizona history, we’ll also have shuttle buses to get you back to your car if the trains get crowded. Rides will run from 10 a.m. – 8 p.m.

Sunday will offer a more low-key opportunity to explore the METRO system, its beautiful stations and the Valley’s light rail destinations. Rides are still free from 10 a.m. to 6 p.m., so if you’re not big on parties, plan to explore METRO on Sunday.

For specific Tempe plans in conjunction with the grand opening, visit the Destination Tempe web page.

Tempe, AZ 2008-2009 Holiday Events

2008-10-28T14:28:00Z

There are several Tempe events planned through the holidays and into the New Year. Here’s a run down of the most popular with links to more information:

Nov. 11th, Veteran’s Day Parade - begins 10am near ASU Gammage, Mill & Apache
Nov. 23rd, Ironman Arizona
Nov. 29th, Fantasy of Lights
Dec. 5th-7th, Fall Festival of the Arts 40th Anniversary
Dec 13th, Fantasy of Lights Boat Parade
Dec. 26th & 27th, Light Rail Grand Opening
Dec. 31st, Fiesta Bowl Block Party
Dec. 31st, Insight Bowl
Jan. 18th, Rock ‘n’ Roll Marathon

The FSBO Discount

2007-12-23T13:04:01Z

STAR POWER ® is a real estate agent education organization. Agents can subscribe to their free scripts to deal with various sales situations. Many of the scripts are corny, but occasionally I find one that offers sound advice, such as this one to advise a seller not to go FSBO:

Click here for the full article.

November 2007 Metro Phoenix Home Sales Update

2007-12-22T00:30:24Z

There were 11,567 new listings in November, down from October's blip up of 14,137, and the lowest monthly increase of the year.

Click here for the full article.

Tempe and metro Phoenix 6 year sales data - the big picture

2007-12-18T23:56:45Z

I read a post by Bryant Tutas discussing perception of market data, looking at sales data for his area since 2002. As he was inspired by another blogger, I was inspired to review data for Tempe and the metro Phoenix area. Here’s similar data I got from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) as of 12/17 for single family detached homes, extended to include average square feet and Days on Market (DOM):

Tempe
Year	Sales	% Change	Avg Price	% Change	Avg SqFt	% Change	Avg DOM	% Change
2002	1,441	-	$187,300	-	1,868	-	49	-
2003	1,538	+6%	$201,946	+7%	1,917	+3%	53	+8%
2004	1,638	+6%	$224,740	+10%	1,915	+0%	42	-21%
2005	1,654	+1%	$300,696	+25%	1,859	-3%	25	-40%
2006	1,259	-24%	$337,609	+11%	1,858	+0%	59	+58%
2007	957	-24%	$344,606	+2%	1,922	+3%	84	+30%

Metro Phoenix Area
Year	Sales	% Change	Avg Price	% Change	Avg SqFt	% Change	Avg DOM	% Change
2002	55,713	-	$197,314	-	1,897	-	62	-
2003	65,351	+15%	$212,253	+7%	1,938	+2%	64	+3%
2004	81,015	+19%	$240,085	+12%	1,955	+1%	49	-23%
2005	85,299	+5%	$325,176	+26%	1,948	+0%	30	-39%
2006	60,429	-29%	$361,927	+10%	1,965	+1%	73	+59%
2007	42,373	-30%	$365,102	+1%	2,073	+5%	112	+35%

Amazing as it may seem in today's market, the average price in Tempe and the Phoenix area in general has actually increased for every year since 2002, including 2007 (as of 12/17). However, then you notice that total sales have dropped by 50% since 2005 (similar declines noted by the other bloggers for their markets).

You can probably come up with a few scenarios to explain the increasing average price in the face of falling sales. Fewer lower priced homes selling, buyers selectively targeting higher priced homes (possibly explaining the higher average sq ft), etc. The rate of increasing prices has dramatically fallen off in 2007, so we may be turning the corner to lower average pricing next year. Although if you believe NAR, prices will be on the rebound (their perpetual theme). Hard to see it with this data.

Should you think that the data may change significantly in the remaining couple of weeks of 2007, you should note that there are only 3,887 pending sales for metro Phoenix, 81 for Tempe. Hardly enough to make a difference, even if they all closed in December (unlikely).

Light rail extension for Tempe?

2007-12-12T23:04:26Z

The new light rail service for Tempe is scheduled to start in about a year. The new service will run through the ASU campus and along Apache Blvd before heading into Mesa. The city has already kicked off studies for extending the line further into south Tempe, where I live.

The rail as it exists now does not do much for me unless I drive or take a bus (good luck with that) to a stop further north. Not too convenient. It would be great to take the rail service into downtown Tempe or further into Phoenix without the hassle of driving. To get down to my end of town though will be a challenge for the planners. They have to somehow navigate through a railroad crossing which runs east-west between Apache Blvd and Broadway Rd.

Now all that's assuming I haven't moved before 2015 which is the earliest any extensions in Tempe will be built.

www.RodSellsAZhomes.com

Realtors in top tier of job satisfaction ranking

2007-12-03T10:44:09Z

Recently, Russell Shaw pointed out that Real Estate agents are considered by the Harris Poll to be at the bottom of the most prestigious occupations. While you may think that those at the bottom would have low self esteem, not so according to Time Magazine which ranks Real Estate Brokers in the top tier of those most happiest with their job (ranked #18, with 45.29% saying they were "very happy"). We were ahead of athletes and school teachers. The bottom? Gas station attendants. My job satisfaction comes from experiences like this one.

Sadness and Joy of Home Selling

2007-12-02T14:14:30Z

The emotional ups and downs of being a Realtor. On a recent sale as the buyer's agent, I met the owner agent at her now former home on closing day to pick up the keys for the new owner. She wandered about the house for the last time, sad, on the verge of tears, leaving her family's home of 20 years, and her mother's home before that. Soon after she left, the new owners came by to get the keys. They were extremely excited and happy to finally have their new home, hugging me for helping them. I stood there with mixed emotions, thinking of the former owner's sadness, but feeling good about helping the new owners. I got to experience the sadness and joy of transferring a home within about an hour.

October 2007 Metro Phoenix Market Trend Report

2007-12-01T20:58:14Z

October 2007 market trend data for Phoenix area cities courtesy of Fidelity National Title. Tempe remained with the best turn-over ratio among Valley cities compared to September, with 1 home sold for every 3.1 listed, although worse than September's 2.7. Three cities improved from September: Phoenix, Scottsdale, and Surprise. All cities still have significantly lower turn-over than October 2006.

Ratios for October 2007 and 2006:

Tempe	3.1	1.7
Chandler	3.6	2.2
Gilbert	3.6	2.3
Mesa	3.8	2.2
Surprise	4.1	3.5
Scottsdale	4.3	3.2
Glendale	4.9	2.2
Phoenix	4.9	2.4
Fountain Hills	6.5	3.9

Fidelity report published with permission. Upon request I will email my original copy which is more readable.

www.RodSellsAZhomes.com

Condo Market Commentary from Arizona State University Realty Studies

2007-11-26T21:00:19Z

Some commentary from our local Arizona State University concerning the metro Phoenix condo market:

"Much like the single-family market the townhouse/condominium market also showed some improvement in October with 710 recorded sales. This is better than the 685 sales of September, but below the 915 sales of a year ago. Townhouse-condominiums tend to be popular with seasonal visitors, investors and people seeking affordable housing. Unlike the single-family market, the median home price remained stable at $170,000 and comparable to last year's $175,000. However, the median price has fallen greatly from the record $184,990 set in May 2007. Some of the price decline can be attributed to slowing of the higher priced condo conversion projects."

Full Article: http://www.poly.asu.edu/news/2007/11/15/

Other than the anomaly in the May time frame, it's encouraging to see that condo pricing is relatively stable, especially compared to single family homes.

You can find more historical pricing data and analysis here: http://www.poly.asu.edu/realty/, including breakdowns by city.

Look here for listings of condos around the ASU area, or here to search for condos in the metro Phoenix area.

Tempe 11/21/07 Condo Sales Update

2007-11-24T23:22:43Z

I've been getting a lot of interest in Tempe condos in the last few weeks, so I thought I'd give a separate update on Tempe condos and townhomes. There are 9 sold so far in November as of 11/21/2007. Hopefully, there are lots of closings scheduled for the end of the month to keep up with October's 26. Inventory is running 13 months based on October sales, a bit longer than the general Tempe market of 12 months.

Active - 336 Properties Found as of 11/21/2007
	Sq Feet	Beds	Baths	List Price	Sale Price	Agent DOM	Total DOM
Min	605	1	1	$ 123,500	$0	0	0
Avg	1212	2	1.93	$ 301,490	$0	100	110
Max	3607	4	3.5	$ 3,260,063	$0	464	828
Sold - 26 Properties Found 10/1/2007 - 10/31/2007
	Sq Feet	Beds	Baths	List Price	Sale Price	Agent DOM	Total DOM
Min	623	1	1	$ 119,900	$ 119,900	0	0
Avg	1226	2	2.08	$ 239,554	$236,608	86	99
Max	2145	3	3	$ 512,900	$ 585,620	403	399

DOM = Days on Market

Data Source: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service

Tempe, AZ Year End Holiday Events

2007-11-24T23:13:44Z

The year end holidays are a busy time for Tempe. There are several major events hosted by the city. First is the Fantasy of Lights Parade on November 24th followed by the Fantasy of Boats Parade on Tempe Town Lake on December 8th. On November 20th, the 38th Tempe Festival of the Arts takes over the downtown area featuring many artists in a wide array of disciplines. In addition, live entertainment including street performers are featured. A portion of the proceeds benefits local charities. A new addition to the Festival of the Arts is the Arizona Wine Festival. Wrapping up the year is the Insight Fiesta Bowl Block Party held on December 31st featuring 40 local bands on 11 stages. A great place to bring in the new year!

Realistic Pricing

2007-08-19T12:40:04Z

I read an article in this Sunday's Arizona Republic about being realistic when pricing a home to sell. Overall, very good advice. It appears to be focused towards FSBO's (For Sale By Owner) since it does not mention using a REALTOR(R) to help with price setting. The key advice given is to look at other comparable homes for sale in your area in similar condition, then set your price to be competitive with them.

There is a major flaw with this advice. Active listings are only one component of a good market analysis. A REALTOR(R) will also look at sold and expired listings. Recent sold listings are by far a better barometer of market pricing than active listings. Active listings are priced at what the owners hope they can get, while solds reflect what the market actually was willing to pay. Are the sold prices in line with active listing prices? If so, then you may be good to go with only using the actives as a comparison point. This is usually not the case, especially in a down market. In fact, you may have to price even lower than the active listings or recent solds as prices continue to decline. The reverse is true in an up market where you may want to price aggressively ahead of current sales. The Phoenix area is in a downward pricing trend (a buyer's market).

Reviewing expired listings will help you better understand how much is too much to ask. These listings never got an acceptable offer because the sellers were unrealistic about the current market value of their home. Any home will sell if the price is set correctly to attract buyers. If this price is not acceptable to the seller, then there is not much to do other than take the home off the market. The seller can either wait until the market rises to their expectations, enhance the value of the home through remodeling (if this was the issue), or adjust the price to meet buyer expectations.

So, in summary, as a seller you need to look at three types of listings: Active, Sold, and Expired. Use this information to set a price that will get your home sold in a time frame you can live with. A local REALTOR(R) can get this information for you and provide a market analysis for your home.

Tempe Alta Mira Neighborhood Review

2007-08-05T19:00:26Z

If you are interested in the Tempe Alta Mira neighborhood, then you should check out my review posted at:

http://www.rodsellsazhomes.com/blogs/rod_rebello/archive/2007/08/05/review-of-tempe-alta-mira-neighborhood.aspx

Phoenix Area May Home Sales

2007-06-30T19:38:54Z

Although average and median home sale prices picked up slightly in May ($333,800 to $350,400 and $250,000 to $255,000 respectively), new listing prices took a slight drop (average went from $413,700 to $406,700). Although this is not nessesarily significant, this may indicate continued realization by home sellers that lower pricing is necessary to get their homes sold. Buyers still continue to hold the upper hand, at least until sellers get to a point where continued lowering of prices is not practical.

It's also interesting to note that total home sales, although lower than last year for the same months, appears to be following the same trend. Sales rose from January to March, dropped in April, then picked up again in May. If the trend continues, number of sales will gradually lower but remain fairly flat through the rest of the year.

Link to: Home Sales Per Month
Link to: New Listings Per Month

Condos for ASU Students

2007-06-20T16:57:13Z

Condos in the Tempe area have generally followed the overall housing trend for the last few years. As with all housing, condos significantly appreciated in value from 2003 - 2005, and leveled off over 2006. There appears to be particularly good demand for condos in the downtown Tempe area, primarily due to the impact of ASU and business development activities. ASU housing demand will continue to put pressure on affordable student housing availabilitiy. Finding quality, reasonably priced student condos are becoming more difficult to find. I think a purchase now will be a good long term investment.

We are in a buyers market, so there is some downward pricing pressure. Days on market for condos to sell have extended from an average 38 last year to about 60 this year for condos sold in the $150,000 - $160,000 price range (some longer depending on condition of the unit). It's difficult to predict how this will change over the next couple of years. The general perception is that housing prices will stablize by year end, with moderate increases going foward (returning to more normal rates). It is a good time for buyers to negotiate on purchase price. I would recommend that you find a condo as close as possible to ASU in your price range. Ideally, it would be in good condition, or that you invest in updating as needed particularly when it comes time to sell.

Keep in mind that you can also rent out extra bedrooms to other students to help offset condo expenses. The ASU Web Devil on line directory is a good site to advertise for student renters, and to get an idea of current rental rates.

April - a Month of Decline; Home Data from Arizona Multiple Listing Service

2007-05-20T11:40:18Z

April was a month of declining numbers. The number of home sales dropped from March's 5,990 sold to 5,535 in April. Average sales price dropped to $333,800 from $345,900. Median sales price dropped from $252,500 to $250,000. New listings dropped from 16,459 to 15,153. Median listing price dropped to $288,900 from $290,000. And average listing price continued to slide down to $406,669, dropping each month so far in 2007. While the drops are not large, and in most cases, not very significant, it does indicate that the market is still looking for a stabilization point.

Sellers may be getting more realistic about pricing as buyers are not willing to buy without price concessions. However, note the large disparity in average listing price versus sold price - about 15% under list. I think this indicates listing prices will continue to drop. As a buyer, you can wait it out, or try to be agressive in your offers to get great pricing now. However, you must be selective, and review a homes list price in the context of recent comparable sales to determine if there really is much negotiating room. Some sellers have realized that they need to be realistic in today's buyer's market and are priced accordingly. Those homes will move fast as buyers recognize and take advantage of a fair deal.

Is this area safe?

2007-05-05T01:04:42Z

I recently had a client ask if particular areas of town are safe. Some areas of town are obviously more inclined to "incidents" than others, or perhaps looked upon as "lower quality/less desirable". They are looking for a condo for their daughter that will be attending the local university. We found a nice condo, but located in an area of concern to the parents. I can understand their concern for her safety. But should I offer an opinion on relative safety or quality of different areas, or just direct them to local police website crime statistics? I don't want to be perceived to be steering them to certain areas, or provide inaccurate information.

I played it safe and gave them the crime web links and MLS census demographic data to review and form their own opinion. For other REALTORS®, what would you do? For clients of REALTORS®, what would you expect?

Phoenix Area Market Update

2007-04-14T19:59:04Z

The March numbers are in, and according to the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service, homes sold rose to 5,990 from February's 4,958. So the upward trend continues since the beginning of the year. March median sales picked up to $252,500 after February's dip to $247,900, which was the lowest since January 2006.

We are in a period of great uncertainty due to the impact of the subprime market, and a steep rise in foreclosures. As more foreclosed homes get dumped on the market, we may see increased downward pressure on pricing and a continued glut of homes for sale. We are already at historical highs for homes for sale in the ARMLS at over 50,000.

If you are thinking of selling, you must price correctly to avoid lingering on the market, or be prepared for a series of price reductions. Your home must be in first class condition to attract buyers and get the best offers.

If you are looking to buy, you may be tempted to wait for more price drops. However, you run the risk of rising interest rates eating away at any potential savings. With today's buyer's market you already have a strong position to negotiate a good deal. If you find the perfect home for you, don't hesitate to make an offer. Good homes priced well are still moving quickly.