interest rates: 2022 Forecast: Rates and Housing prices.
- 01/05/22 06:35 AM
Happy New Year!
Housing prices continue to climb: CoreLogic Home Price Index was up 1.3% in November and 18% year over year, the highest reading in the 45yr history of the index. While the pace of appreciation in 2022 is not expected to stay at these levels most forecasts show prices will continue to climb. CoreLogic only forecasts a 2.5% gain in 2022 but this time last year they forecast 2.5% as well. For 2022: Goldman forecast 16% gains, Zillow 14%, Fannie 7.5%. I do believe that the higher two are not that realistic and we are more likely to see a … (4 comments)
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interest rates: Waiting to buy can only hurt.
- 11/12/21 07:05 AM
I am sure it’s no surprise to you, nationally housing prices are fast approaching a 20% increase (year over year) with some markets up over 30%. We continue to hear clients (and a few agents) voice concern about the run up in pricing and think they should wait for prices to drop before they will buy. Even rents are climbing faster than they have in years. People need housing and in
Demand remains strong and if you look at the demographics it is very unlikely we will see it stop. I do expect appreciation will slow down to more manageable levels in … (3 comments)
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interest rates: This Week's Economic Calendar: 9/9/19
- 09/09/19 08:23 AM
For my financial news junkies----
This coming week has potential for some big moments; the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy meeting on Thursday, UK Prime Minister Johnson’s trip to Ireland, and the subsequent election vote in the UK Parliament. In data terms the highlights are Thursday’s US CPI and Friday’s US retail sales.
Last weeks employment report was a bit of a mixed bag, while still showing strength there was some data the Fed sees as potentially risky which is a likely indicator that Fed Funds will be cut 1/4% again on 9/18.
In other news- the Yield curve while still VERY Flat … (2 comments)
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interest rates: This week's Economic Calendar: August 12, 2019
- 08/12/19 07:52 AM
Below is the Economic calendar for the week. From what I see - I would put the most weight on CPI and Retail sales this week. Not on the calendar and an ongoing issue are world events and the ongoing trade war with China. These are the wild cards not on the Calendar that may have a significant impact on the markets.
Remember, it is a global economy, and this calendar is for our little corner of the world.
Robert Rauf
Mortgage Loan Originator NMLS# 248937
http://www.homebridge.com/RobertRauf
or my blog: http://activerain.com/blogs/rrauf
Office: (732)908-4868 Cell (732)740-0175
RRauf@HomeBridge.com
www.RobertRauf.com
Since 1987 I have been helping my clients fulfill their dream of home … (0 comments)
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interest rates: This Week's Economic Calendar 8/5/19
- 08/05/19 08:46 AM
Last weeks "big" news was the Fed rate cut, that was somewhat expected and overshadowed by US-China Trade "fun"
10yr Treasuries did end the week at the lowest yield we have seen in 3yrs, While mortgages did not rally as much as treasuries we still saw some great rate improvements in the Mortgage world.
This week is a fairly quiet calendar with PPI being the most noticeable news on Friday. The "Biggie" that is not on the calendar that is most likely to impact the markets would be the ongoing US-China trade talks, keep an eye on that and remember: Good news is Bad … (0 comments)
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interest rates: Fed Meeting Ends: What does it mean for interest rates?
- 03/21/19 08:14 AM
Yesterday was the end of the 2 day Federal Reserve meeting and as we anticipated - The Fed did not move rates.
As is always the case - it is not what the Fed does, but what they say that has the most power. The Comments that came out of the meeting were more dovish than anticipated leading to a rally in the credit markets.
Chairman Powell noted that slowing economic growth and reduced inflation pressure has the Fed taking a patient stance on policy. Additionally - the Fed will slow the shrinking of the balance sheet in May and end the draw down in … (0 comments)
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interest rates: Interest Rates Are Climbing
- 05/12/15 04:42 AM
In the Interest rate world: After a very steady couple of months it appears that interest rates have started
their climb up. The past week or two have not been interest rate friendly. Frankly- the news has just been too good for rates to stay as low as they were. If you have read anything I have written about interest rates in the past 20 or so years you know that Good News is Bad News for interest rates. The economy is gaining strength, employment is better than it has been since 2008 and the Fed may be forced to raise interest … (2 comments)
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interest rates: Rates Today: 50% of the 30yr Average
- 01/21/15 10:48 PM
Here is a chart showing the past 30 year history of a 30yr Fixed Rate Mortgage... It is a great visual to see JUST HOW GOOD it is right NOW to buy a home:
Have a great week
Rob
Robert Rauf
Mortgage Loan Originator NMLS ID# 248937
http://www.homebridge.com/RobertRauf
or my blog: http://activerain.com/blogs/rrauf
Office: (732)908-4868
RRauf@HomeBridge.com
www.RobertRauf.com
Since 1987 I have been helping my clients fulfill their dream of home ownership! HomeBridge Financial Services, Formerly REMN, HomeBridge Financial Services is located at 16 Madison Avenue, Building 2 Suite 2D Toms River, NJ 08753. NMLS #6521. New Jersey Licensed Lender and Mortgage Banker #L041053. Visit www.Homebridge.com for … (1 comments)
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interest rates: FED MEETING - signals that rates are headed up
- 01/29/14 03:35 AM
Hot off the presses:
Federal Open Market Committee unanimously votes to cut QE3 funding authority by $10 billion to $65 billion.
As of this moment the markets are taking it in stride, but this is a sign of things to come. As the Fed pulls out of their Quantitative Easing we will see less money flowing in the credit markets. If the private sector does not absorb the excess supply prices will drop and yields will climb
We have been reading it, I have been saying it.. this is news straight from Uncle Sam: RATES WILL CLIMB in 2014
Have … (0 comments)
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interest rates: When Good News Is Bad News
- 01/14/14 05:09 AM
The Retail Sales number was quite a bit higher in December than expected. On the surface up 0.2% but take out Autos and that number was actually up 0.7%.. That is great news.
In addition One of our Fed Governors said a few words today: Fed Gov Plosser believes the economy is doing well, he believes the weak December employment report was weather related and anticipates the unemployment rate to drop to 6.2% by the end of the year. He also hinted that the economy is strong enough to allow the Fed to taper off its purchases in the credit … (0 comments)
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interest rates: Employment numbers MUCH better than expected- Lowest Level in 5 years!
- 12/06/13 12:17 AM
This mornings Employment report was a strong one. The monthly level for November 2013 dropped to 7.0%, the lowest level in 5 years AND over 200,000 new jobs were created. See chart below:
Keep in mind that this good news is likely to cause rates to climb. The Fed is likely to begin tapering off their Quantitative Easing as early as January 2014. The rumor on the street is that the Fed will stop buying Treasuries and Mortgages entirely in the next 9-12 months.
The Fed has been a big player in the credit markets keeping … (4 comments)
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interest rates: Big improvement in Rates last week
- 09/23/13 12:27 AM
In The Interest Rate World
The chart below is the history of interest rates, one of my favorite visuals to share with our clients. This data is close to 3 months old now but still clearly shows the big picture. After a big bump up the past few months we had a big drop last week.
Two things happened in the past week that helped to settle the interest rate market down. First- Lawrence Summers unexpectedly withdrew from consideration for Fed Chief. His withdrawal leaves Janet Yellen, the current Fed Vice-Chair, to replace Bernanke. She is expected to continue … (2 comments)
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interest rates: Mortgage Rates Are Climbing
- 01/28/13 02:57 AM
Stronger than expected economic news from Europe last week caused a noticeable bump up in interest rates and we see that continuing today with stronger than expected economic data this morning adding to Friday's large losses. December Durable Orders rose 4.6% from November, above the consensus of 2.0%. Excluding volatile aircraft orders, they increased 1.3%, compared to a consensus of just 0.7%. Bonds sold off after the news, with 10-yr Treasury yields reaching 2.0% for the first time since April. Reports that European banks will pay back EU bailout aid sooner than expected, reflecting strength, added to the global move … (6 comments)
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interest rates: Election Results: An Interest Rate Perspective
- 11/05/12 04:38 AM
President Obama or Governor Romney
If the President is re-elected in all likelihood the equities (stocks) market will fall on Wednesday morning. Bonds should rally slightly, keeping interest rates low. The president will keep Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke in his position until his term ends in 2014. Bernanke’s policies QE1,2, and 3 are very favorable for bonds and mortgages. In addition, with equities falling investors will seek refuge in bonds. The traditional flight to quality trade.
If Governor Romney is elected in all likelihood equities will rally Wednesday morning. Bonds should fall causing interest rates to rise slightly. … (0 comments)
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interest rates: Then VS Now: Home Affordability 2006 vs 2012
- 10/19/12 04:53 AM
Home Affordability: Continued
My previous post on affordability I went back as far as 1989 to compare to today. For today’s addition we will look at more recent history. The chart below is a quick look at the last 6 years:
What does that all mean? Well, it is pretty simple: The price is the Median price of a home in 2006 and in 2012. The Rate: That’s where rates were in 2006 and where Rates are today.
The payment: That is a little more complicated: This goes on the assumption of a Conventional loan with 20% down, … (1 comments)
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interest rates: Why are mortgage rates up?
- 08/17/12 12:55 AM
After reaching record lows near the end of July, mortgage rates have moved steadily higher this month. From their peak around July 24, Mortgage Backed Securities have dropped by more than two points, and mortgage rates have increased one quarter point or more.
Prior to July 26, two primary factors were responsible for the decline to record lows. First, the European debt troubles caused investors to shift to relatively safer assets, including US MBS. Second, slower economic growth reduced inflationary pressures and supported low mortgage rates. While the troubles in Europe and sluggish growth rates are likely to remain … (6 comments)
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interest rates: Mortgage Rates and What May Move Them This Week - July 25, 2011
- 07/25/11 05:32 AM
Last week was a bumpy one with swings in both directions ultimately ending up almost unchanged at the end of the week with Fannies losing 2/32nds for the week. Between a new bail out for Greece, Mixed reports on housing and Debt ceiling talks - the markets have been pretty confused and that is likely to continue this week.
This weeks Calendar has a long list of data and auctions and just to keep things interesting, budget talks in DC will be on the forefront making the data less important. But we shouldn't ignore it. Here is the calendar:
Monday … (2 comments)
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interest rates: Mortgage Rates and What May Move Them This Week: July 18, 2011
- 07/19/11 04:17 AM
Sorry this is a day late, but better late than never!
Last week was a good one with fannies gaining 23/32nds for the week, marking 2 big weeks in a row wiping out the losses of a few weeks ago bringing rates back near the lows for the year.. so we are in great shape with rates being so low, making houses more affordable than they have been in decades!
This week is a short on data, but there are a lot of outside factors that are likely to make the market volatile. Here is this week's calendar:
Monday, July 18: … (0 comments)
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interest rates: Mortgage Rates and What May Move Them This Week: July 11, 2011
- 07/11/11 10:24 AM
Last week was a good one for interest rates, with Fannies gaining back 26/32nds by the close on Friday. The two "good days" were Tuesday which I attribute mostly to dust settling, and Friday where the employment report ended up weaker than expected which sparked a rally in the Credit markets. Remember: Bad news is Good news for interest rates.
This week is a pretty busy calendar of auctions, Data and Fed activity, here is how the week shapes up:
Monday July 11: A no News day with Fannies taking direction from stocks, With stock selling off today we have an … (5 comments)
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interest rates: Mortgage Rates and What May Move Them This Week, July 5, 2011
- 07/05/11 07:45 AM
I hope everyone had a great 4th of July Weekend!
last week was a bad one for mortgage rates with the worst sell off we have seen since early February... Fannies lost 44/32nds last week in the wake of good news in Greece, June 30th marking the end of the Fed's Quantitative Easing, Etc. So what does that equate to? Higher rates, back up to levels we have not seen since Mid May. I knew they would bounce eventually, the only question is How hard or how High?
The market almost always over does it on the up and down side, … (3 comments)
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