rates: 2022 Forecast: Rates and Housing prices.
- 01/05/22 06:35 AM
Happy New Year!
Housing prices continue to climb: CoreLogic Home Price Index was up 1.3% in November and 18% year over year, the highest reading in the 45yr history of the index. While the pace of appreciation in 2022 is not expected to stay at these levels most forecasts show prices will continue to climb. CoreLogic only forecasts a 2.5% gain in 2022 but this time last year they forecast 2.5% as well. For 2022: Goldman forecast 16% gains, Zillow 14%, Fannie 7.5%. I do believe that the higher two are not that realistic and we are more likely to see a … (4 comments)
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rates: Are Mortgage Rates Going Back Up?
- 12/02/19 07:44 AM
A recent article by the Financial Times suggested the Fed is considering allowing inflation to run higher than their target levels. If this is truly Chairman Powell's goal it is likely we will see long term rates (Mortgages included) move higher. The market already thinks that is a possibility with Mortgage Backed Securities lower this morning. (There is an inverse relationship between price and yield- Prices down equal rates up in the credit markets)
Last December we were rates were charging higher and we were seeing some 5's on 30yr fixed rates as we went into 2019. This year we were surprised by … (0 comments)
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rates: This Week's Economic Calendar: 9/9/19
- 09/09/19 08:23 AM
For my financial news junkies----
This coming week has potential for some big moments; the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy meeting on Thursday, UK Prime Minister Johnson’s trip to Ireland, and the subsequent election vote in the UK Parliament. In data terms the highlights are Thursday’s US CPI and Friday’s US retail sales.
Last weeks employment report was a bit of a mixed bag, while still showing strength there was some data the Fed sees as potentially risky which is a likely indicator that Fed Funds will be cut 1/4% again on 9/18.
In other news- the Yield curve while still VERY Flat … (2 comments)
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rates: This week's Economic Calendar: 9/3/19
- 09/03/19 09:41 AM
Here's what we have in store for the week. The "Biggie of the week" will be Friday's Employment report, historically it has been one of the bigger market movers. Second will likely be Tomorrow's release of the Beige book, which are the notes from the last Fed Meeting. The Wild Card remains the trade fun with new Tariffs that kicked in on Sunday, we shall see how that plays out. Lastly- the continuing concern is the inverted yield curve which we have had for more than a week now..... never a good sign for the economy.
In the mean time: Interest rates remain … (0 comments)
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rates: This Week's Economic Calendar 7/29/19
- 07/30/19 07:34 AM
Here is this weeks economic calendar. So far it has been a pretty flat week for mortgages, but there is a lot of data coming out this week that can swing rates. Tuesday's income, spending and confidence numbers always have a chance of moving the market, and at the end of the week we have the employment report that historically has caused some of the biggest moves...
Not on the calendar: US and China trade talks resumed today (Tuesday) and this has the potential to swing the market depending on how well it goes.
Robert Rauf
Mortgage Loan Originator NMLS# 248937
http://www.homebridge.com/RobertRauf
or my blog: http://activerain.com/blogs/rrauf
Office: … (2 comments)
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rates: Mortgage Rates Are On The Rise: Here is the History of Rates
- 05/10/18 11:21 AM
Don't be surprised when you start seeing 5%
2018 has been the fastest run up in interest rates we have seen in quite some time, with a 30 Year Fixed rate fast approaching the 5% mark for the first time in years I thought it would be a good idea to review the past few decades.
I chose 1987 as a starting point for this example since that is the year I started in the Mortgage Business. As you can see from the chart below the average rate on a 30yr fixed in 1987 was 10.21%. What that chart does not show is … (0 comments)
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rates: Then VS Now: Home Affordability 2006 vs 2012
- 10/19/12 04:53 AM
Home Affordability: Continued
My previous post on affordability I went back as far as 1989 to compare to today. For today’s addition we will look at more recent history. The chart below is a quick look at the last 6 years:
What does that all mean? Well, it is pretty simple: The price is the Median price of a home in 2006 and in 2012. The Rate: That’s where rates were in 2006 and where Rates are today.
The payment: That is a little more complicated: This goes on the assumption of a Conventional loan with 20% down, … (1 comments)
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rates: One of the MOST Affordable times to buy-
- 10/16/12 04:56 AM
I saw an article earlier today that mentioned how complacent buyers are getting when it comes to rates. I couldn't agree more.
People are thinking rates in the 3's are the norm, while any of us in the business for any period of time know that is not the case.
Just for fun, I ran a few numbers- Today vs. 1989. the chart below goes back quite a bit further, but 1989 is near and dear to me.
Why 1989? Well, that is when I purchased my first house.My first mortgage was at 11.25% and that was a good rate … (5 comments)
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rates: Why are mortgage rates up?
- 08/17/12 12:55 AM
After reaching record lows near the end of July, mortgage rates have moved steadily higher this month. From their peak around July 24, Mortgage Backed Securities have dropped by more than two points, and mortgage rates have increased one quarter point or more.
Prior to July 26, two primary factors were responsible for the decline to record lows. First, the European debt troubles caused investors to shift to relatively safer assets, including US MBS. Second, slower economic growth reduced inflationary pressures and supported low mortgage rates. While the troubles in Europe and sluggish growth rates are likely to remain … (6 comments)
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rates: Mortgage Rates and What May Move Them This Week: July 18, 2011
- 07/19/11 04:17 AM
Sorry this is a day late, but better late than never!
Last week was a good one with fannies gaining 23/32nds for the week, marking 2 big weeks in a row wiping out the losses of a few weeks ago bringing rates back near the lows for the year.. so we are in great shape with rates being so low, making houses more affordable than they have been in decades!
This week is a short on data, but there are a lot of outside factors that are likely to make the market volatile. Here is this week's calendar:
Monday, July 18: … (0 comments)
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rates: Mortgage Rates and What May Move Them This Week: June 27, 2011
- 06/27/11 06:33 AM
Last week was a good one for rates with Fannies gaining 18/32ndsfor the week. That should set us up again for yet another low for the year, even with the ground we lost the previous week. At last week's FOMC meeting the Fed reduced growth forecasts, and troubles in Greece continued the flight to quality helping to lower rates last week.
This week not only is a holiday week, but we have auctions and data to chew on as the week moves along. Here is the calendar:
MondayJune 27: May personal income expected +0.3% Spending +0.1% and Consumption expected +0.2%. The … (4 comments)
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rates: Mortgage Rates and What May Move Them This Week: June 6, 2011
- 06/06/11 05:45 AM
Last week was the 8th week in a row of improving Mortgage Rates with fannies gaining another 9/32nds for the week we now have Mid 4's available for many buyers. We are now within spitting distance of the all time lows we saw last fall. The bad news here is that the employment report was much weaker than anticipated and that report was a big part of last weeks gain.
This weeks calendar is mostly overshadowed by 3 Auctions pumping a few extra billion worth of bonds into the market. Here is the Calendar:
Monday, June 6: A no news day … (0 comments)
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rates: Mortgage Rates, and What May Move Them This Week: May 23, 2011
- 05/23/11 08:57 AM
Last week was the 6th straight week of improving rates with Fannies gaining 4/32nds by time the markets closed on Friday... Teeny little gain, yes, but a pretty solid week of positive trading. All together this recent drop has not only taken us to levels we have not seen since the all time lows last fall, but it has also made this one of the most affordable times to buy a home in almost 2 decades.
This week brings us a new list of data to chew on in a holiday shortened week.
Here is this week's Calendar:
Monday May … (2 comments)
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rates: Mortgage Rates and What May Move Them This Week: May 9, 2011
- 05/09/11 09:07 AM
Last week was the fourth week in a row of improving interest rates. By the end of the day on Friday we had Fannies trading up 19/32nds for the week, with every day a positive one. We even managed a small gain on Friday with the employment report showing a much larger gain in jobs than anticipated, and all of the gain was from the private sector. The 4's are truly a reality for our good buyers right now, and with homes being more affordable than they have been in almost 2 decades, we certainly do have a lot of good … (2 comments)
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rates: Mortgage Rates and What May Move Them This Week: April 18, 2011
- 04/18/11 08:20 AM
The past few weeks have had their share of fun! We are living in such a global environment: The flight to quality appears to be over, 2 weeks ago interest rate hikes in Europe and China sent a wave of fear in our markets withinvestors thinking the Fed would need to follow suit with rate hikes. Last weeks core inflation numbers show inflation at a very manageable level of 1.2%/yr and the market rallied on the news gaining back much of what was lost a few weeks ago, and fannies ended up 20/32nds for the week, getting pretty close to … (0 comments)
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rates: Mortgage Rates and What May Move Them This Week: April 11, 2011
- 04/11/11 06:21 AM
Last week was the third week in a row of steadily climbing rates. Fannies lost 14/32ndsfor the week. This steady trend up seems to indicate that the world issues are no longer flowing funds into our credit markets in the same fashion we saw a while back. Considering the rebound in stocks and the lack of any real data last week it makes me wonder if that flight to quality may be over?
This week is the polar opposite of last week with a LOOOONNNNNG calendar of economic data and auctions to contend with, here is this weeks calendar:
Monday April … (1 comments)
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rates: Mortgage Rates and What May Move Them This Week: March 28, 2011
- 03/28/11 09:46 AM
In last week's Tug-O-War, Stocks won and the credit markets lost. By the end of the day on Friday Fannies lost 22/32nds for the week, the biggest lost since February 11th. Of course as a trade off we have the Dow WELL over $12,000 again.... and if you have been keeping up with my reports, you will be well aware that Good news is BAD news for interest rates.
This week has a good mix of auctions and data, We have $99 Billion in treasuries to be auctioned off this week, here is the calendar.
MondayMarch 28: February personal income … (3 comments)
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rates: Mortgage Rates and What May Move Them This Week: March 21, 2011
- 03/21/11 10:02 AM
Last week gave us a little more improvement in rates with Fannies gaining about 18/32ndsfor the week we are firmly below 5% for many buyers shopping for a 30yr fixed rate mortgage. Today the marked did try to give much of that back as stocks were rallying all day and that created a bit of a sell off in the Credit Markets. World issues continue to be the fuel for the markets. Today's moves were partially on news that Uncle Sam will begin selling its mortgage backed securities, which is a bit scary since they hold over $1 Trillion in … (5 comments)
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rates: Mortgage Rates and What May Move Them This Week: March 14, 2011
- 03/14/11 06:56 AM
After a bouncy ride last week we ended up the week UNCHANGED. That's right, absolutely no difference in price of Fannies from the close the previous week, That doesn't mean it sat flat all week, Tuesday was pretty ugly, but Wednesday and Thursday had great results for the 10yr and 30yr auctions and big gains on both days.
This week has inflation reports, a Fed meeting and some more world issues to chew on, here is what we have for the week:
Monday March 14, 2011: Happy PI day! In the absence of any news PI has it.. 3.14159.... I … (0 comments)
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rates: Mortgage Rates and What May Move Them This Week, February 28, 2011
- 03/01/11 08:47 AM
Interest rates took a big dip down over the past 2 weeks, last week Fannies gained almost a full point which has us below 5% again for well qualified buyers. Most of the move we have seen is due to the flight to quality because of Libya and Egypt. World Turmoil always pumps extra cash into our credit markets which drives the price up and the Yield down. Great if you are borrowing money, but typically bad for stocks.
The big issue with this improvement in rates: It is temporary. Once the dust settles money will begin to flow quickly … (2 comments)
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