Wisconsin's Northwoods Real Estate

Oneida and Vilas County Unit Sales 11-3-09

Jim Mulleady (Coldwell Banker Mulleady REALTORS) — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 13:43:11 -0600

Some good news for a change! We reached over 100 units sold for the first time in 2009 and the most units since last October. 109 units sold in October vs. 122 last October. It's a start!

The above are home unit sales by month for the past 24 months. Some bad news is that 2009 unit sales have been below 2008 unit sales for the past 12 months. One month, April, almost surpassed the previous year 76 vs. 77 units. The largest gap was between December 2008 vs. December 2007 where 72 units were sold in 2008 vs. 179 units were sold in 2007.

One thing becomes quite clear on this chart is the beginning of the real estate slowdown. If you throw out February, March and April of 2008, the rest of the year was relatively strong. Those three months are historically slow periods in Northwoods real estate. October 2008 was the final strong month for Northwoods real estate with sales of 122 homes. Since that time, we have had only one month with sales above 80 units (August 2009 saw 84 units sold).

What will the future hold? The uptick in volume is certainly welcome news for sellers and REALTORS. The $8000 stimulus has helped in other parts of Wisconsin and the nation but it has not made a significant impact on Northwoods real estate. I remain optimistic that 2010 will surpass 2009 and that Octobers number, while not outstanding, are a step in the right direction. The one common element that the Buyers are looking for are "deals".

Oneida and Vilas Counties Avg. Price October 2009

Jim Mulleady (Coldwell Banker Mulleady REALTORS) — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 10:58:54 -0500

Some good news for a change. The average sales price rose $10K since our last look at the average sales price in mid-September. While home prices most likely did not rise by this value, the mix of home values did rise. What the market has lacked all of 2009 are some medium priced homes. These are homes in the $400-$600K range. This used to be the strongest market segment. This past month there have been some sales in this segment and that has increased the average sales values.

Look for this trend to continue as there are some real attractive buys out there. I expect the average sales price for both Oneida and Vilas Counties to be in the upper $300K range by year end. Many sellers are offering significant discounts.

The key word that buyers are looking for right now is "deals". They are looking for homes below appraised, below assessed, bank-owned and fire sales. They are willing to sacrifice desired features and benefits for the right price.

Vilas and Oneida Counties Unit Sales August 2009

Jim Mulleady (Coldwell Banker Mulleady REALTORS) — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 14:27:25 -0500

At least it is not going down! The blue line is new listings while the red line represents sold units. A definitive trend has evolved this summer and to REALTORS and sellers this will come as no surprise. The volume was down in the summer of 2008 to around 120 units per month (homes and condos). This summer, it's hovered around 75 per month, roughly a 35% drop. The summers of 2005 through 2007 saw averages in the 200 units per month area. So, we are moving approximately 37% of the homes that we were in previous summers.

The news is not all negative. The 84 units that sold in August were the most sold since October of 2008. As far as the year-to-date numbers, the entire MLS is roughly 33% down from 2008 but that is better than the -45% we were down earlier in 2009. We are digging ourselves out but at a sluggish pace.

Interestingly, the market below $200,000 and above $1M are the most active (or lease inactive if you prefer). The stimulus program is helping those in the lower market. There are some great values out there for those who have been waiting on the sidelines.

Oneida County and Vilas County Unit Sales July 2009

Jim Mulleady (Coldwell Banker Mulleady REALTORS) — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 11:24:37 -0500

There are market segments that are doing well. Then there are some that are not doing so well. Here is a chart of home sales the past 12 months compared with 2006.

Price Range Listed 2009 Sold 2009 Ratio Listed 2006 Sold 2006 Ratio

$0 - $200K 1169 442 37.8 1293 654 50.5

$200K-$500K 1076 225 20.9 1136 430 37.8

$500K - $1M 318 42 13.2 270 84 31.1

$1M and up 82 12 14.6 66 12 18%

This chart illustrates what market segments are hurting the most. The $500,000 to $1M home market is off by 50% from 2006. This represents the "lake home" market. The $200K to $500K is down from 430 units to 225 units. The luxury $1M market is off but unit sales remain the same.

Some good news here is that showing activity is way up. Perhaps we will see a robust fall? There has never been a better time to be a buyer!

Vilas and Oneida Counties Average Home Price

Jim Mulleady (Coldwell Banker Mulleady REALTORS) — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 16:05:39 -0500

Not going down! That's the good news! The average numbers did not decline from the past 30 days and we can all be thankful for that piece of good news (except if you are a buyer). Some other good news is that Vilas County Transfer Tax is down only 15% from 2008. That is better than it has been. Transfer tax is the .3% that all sellers pay to the state when they sell their property. For 2009, we are presently down 40% year to date. So, the market is not falling as fast as it was earlier in the year.

Is it time to celebrate? Anyone who knows me realizes that anytime is a time to celebrate!! However if you are a buyer it may be time to pop the champagne. If you are a Seller, its still a bit of a drag out there.. The stimulus package has not improved the real estate market here in the Northwoods. We still have many summer visitors as there is no place on earth better to be than the Northwoods. The inventory is excellent. Interest rates are very good, too. There are incentives for those first time home buyers as well. Has there ever been a better time to buy?

Market Report - Vilas and Oneida Counites 7-3-09

Jim Mulleady (Coldwell Banker Mulleady REALTORS) — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 09:59:24 -0500

The red line is the units sold and is the most significant value. Unit sales in June 2008 were 123, in 2007, they were 186 and in 2006 they were 207. In 2009, June unit sales of homes in Vilas and Oneida Counties were a disappointing 79 units. We are selling 38% of the homes that we were in 2006 and 64% of what we were in 2008.

This is normally our prime selling season. Our inventory is excellent and there are terrific values out there. There simply are not many buyers.

We were more optimistic about the second half of 2009 but I'm afraid that our expectations were set too high. Other areas of the country are rebounding but there is a definite downward trend here right now. If you are a Seller that is not good news as further discounting will be necessary. If you are a Buyer, this is excellent news as terrific buys are out there and more will be coming.

Oneida and Vilas Counties Avg. Price June 2009

Jim Mulleady (Coldwell Banker Mulleady REALTORS) — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 14:32:20 -0500

Improving! The average numbers have been boosted by 4 $1M sales on the waterfront side in both Oneida and Vilas Counties. This is one area where the sales (and showings) have been sluggish.

Off-water home sales have also improved. The market under $200K has been active and continues to improve.

The volume of showings continues to its upward move. So, things are looking better. I don't wish to throw a damper on the improving market but interest rates have climbed. This is due to a number of factors including the devalued dollar and increasing budget deficits on both the state and national level.

I'm still optimistic about the second half of 2009. Inventory is excellent and there are terrific values. Buyers are only beginning to discover the value that is out there.

Vilas and Oneida Counties Unit Sales May 2009

Jim Mulleady (Coldwell Banker Mulleady REALTORS) — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 16:24:31 -0500

The red line is the one to watch. This represents the unit sales in both Oneida and Vilas Counties. It has not shown a significant increase yet in 2009. In fact, after a disappointing 2008, the 2009 numbers show fewer unit sales than 2008. Not the best of news for Sellers. I still remain optimistic for unit sales to be in the 150 to 200 unit range in August and September, much healthier than 2008.

Some good news here is that the number of listings is below last year. Our inventory is still high relative to the numbers of active buyers. The one concern that I have is the number of buyers in the higher priced properties has not risen much. At present, there are 1492 lakefront properties in the Northwoods' MLS and only 43 have accepted offers. That is only 2.8%, a very low number.

The volume of showings have increased dramatically in the past 4 weeks. Low interest rates, a good inventory and motivated sellers; it's a very good time to be a Buyer!

Oneida and Vilas Counties Avg. Price May 2009

Jim Mulleady (Coldwell Banker Mulleady REALTORS) — Mon, 25 May 2009 14:56:07 -0500

Is the bottom here? Possibly but by the looks of the chart it appears that we may be in the negative for some time yet. However, the volume of sales is still so very low, it is impossible to come up with any definitive conclusions.

Sales volume remains low with 30 homes sold thus far on-water in Vilas County and 32 off-water. In 2008, only 103 on-water homes were sold so it appears that volume of on-water will surpass 2008 levels. Keep in mind that historically, more homes are sold in the last half of the year than the first half.

In Oneida County, there were 26 on-water homes sold and 73 off-water homes sold. Last year, there were 138 on-water home sold in Oneida County so it would appear that volume for on-water will be lower in 2009 for lake homes.

Volume of showings have increased dramatically in the past 3 weeks. Low interest rates, a good inventory and motivated sellers; it's a very good time to be a Buyer!

Oneida County and Vilas County Unit Sales April 2009

Jim Mulleady (Coldwell Banker Mulleady REALTORS) — Wed, 06 May 2009 20:25:35 -0500

Not great but headed in the right direction!

We now are showing a positive trend. 50 units sold in March and 76 units sold in April. That is still well below previous March and Aprils: 2008 saw70 and 77, 2007 had 95 and 166 and 2006 had135 and 148. So, we are not anywhere near the volume we saw two years ago but we are improving!

The big change was the amount of buyer traffic. There are many reports of increased showings and offers. We are optimistic that June and July may see increases over 2008. I can only attribute this to market optimism.

The bottom may be behind us already.

Low interest rates, a good supply of money and sellers willing to accept reasonable offers all say one thing. There never has been a better time to be a Buyer!

Oneida and Vilas Counties Avg. Price April 2009

Jim Mulleady (Coldwell Banker Mulleady REALTORS) — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 15:41:19 -0500

Rather intimidating! This is what I use to monitor average home values here in the Northwoods. This looks at the average home value in these 4 segments, Oneida County On-Water, Oneida County Off-Water, Vilas County On-Water and Vilas County Off-Water. What we are seeing are price reductions across the board.

The trend is not encouraging for Sellers but keep in mind that there still have been only 15 on-water home sales in Vilas and 16 off-water home sales in that same county. The data is statistically not accurate because of the lack of data. This cases two problems: one oversupply. Two, lack of comparables for appraisers. Its' tough for an underwriter when there are so few comparables!

Things will improve! The weather is warming up and showings are increasing!

There never has been a better time to be a Buyer!

Oneida County and Vilas County Unit Sales

Jim Mulleady (Coldwell Banker Mulleady REALTORS) — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 11:09:00 -0500

Ahhh Spring! Nothing like snow and cold to welcome in spring! We know all about climate change here in the Northwoods!

Real estate sales have been on the cool side as well. I have no doubt that the present state of the economy has many potential buyers still on the sidelines. The cold and snow here and to our south has not helped the market. We did see a 25% increase in sales vs. February 09. The chart will temper our enthusiasm in that this was still the second worse month in the past 10 years. We take any sort of positive news as a glimmer of hope.

Obviously Sellers are enthusiastic with a large increase in the number of listings. Showing activity which is difficult to track is showing a definite increase. I don't anticipate a huge April but I do anticipate a much stronger May and June than 2008. Booked sales are definitely up but we are seeing more reticence with the banks. Commercial loans are simply not available. Home loans are another story. Freddie Mac said today that the average 30 year fixed mortgage last week came in at 4.875%.

There never has been a better time to be a Buyer!

Oneida County, Vilas County Unit Sales February 2009

Jim Mulleady (Coldwell Banker Mulleady REALTORS) — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 16:26:34 -0500

We reached (perhaps not the best choice of words) a new low for unit sales in February. 40 units sold in the month and that is the lowest monthly volume that we have experienced in the past 10 years. I can speculate as to the cause: the economy and the very cold weather.

Last February was less than spectacular too with 53 units sold. 2007 saw 94 units sell and 2006 saw 102 units move.

Listing activity is good. The supply is getting better daily. Sellers are wanting to sell in 2009. That is a good sign. In 2008, we saw a lot of Sellers that were "waiting for the market to improve". We may not see as much of that in 2009.

Interest rates remain at historically low levels. The supply is good and getting better. We remain optimistic about the Northwoods' real estate market.

There never has been a better time to be a Buyer!

Oneida and Vilas Counties Avg. Price

Jim Mulleady (Coldwell Banker Mulleady REALTORS) — Fri, 27 Feb 2009 12:18:06 -0600

I won't be like Jim Kramer or other television pundits who regularly arouse the audience with sell off everything and put cash under the mattress. Is the sky falling? Are prices plummeting? When you look at the average figures, one can begin to come to conclusions. This is my first look at the averages from the first 58 days of 2009. Obviously, the trend is troublesome to say the least. In particular, the off-water homes seem to be falling off a cliff.

The one thing to remember here is that statistically we have so few sales to look at. Sales in units were: Vilas On-Water - 11 units, Oneida On-Water - 7 units, Vilas Off-Water - 9 units, Oneida Off-Water - 25 units. It's very difficult to make accurate conclusions with so few sales. In fact, the only accurate conclusion one can make is that unit volume is quite slow. Combined total unit sales in January 2008 was 158 units compared with 58 units in 2009. It is slow.

I will continue the mantra, it's a great time to be a buyer!

A Sure Sign of Spring

Jim Mulleady (Coldwell Banker Mulleady REALTORS) — Thu, 26 Feb 2009 14:08:28 -0600

If groundhogs had shades, they would have them here. In these parts, we normally get another 10 weeks of winter. We would be ecstatic with 6 weeks. However, we snowmobile here. We ice fish here. We snowshoe and ski here so winter is an integral part of our life.

Yesterday, spring training started in both the Grapefruit and Cactus Leagues. It is one of my favorite things about spring, visiting the small ballparks where baseball is still a game, not a multi-million dollar industry. The players are approachable and willing to sign autographs and greet fans. They often bring their own kids to the ballpark.

There is even some optimism in BrewTown. Lots of concern over the loss of 38 wins between CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets but they have a young talented core. Its always nice to see encased meat again running around the bases!

Thank God for aircraft and the ability to fly someplace warm when I want to!

Today's Funniest Line

Jim Mulleady (Coldwell Banker Mulleady REALTORS) — Mon, 16 Feb 2009 16:50:17 -0600

In speaking with a neighbor who experienced some heart difficulty last month:

"Its better to be seen than viewed".

Our New Government; The Big Bread Line

Jim Mulleady (Coldwell Banker Mulleady REALTORS) — Sat, 24 Jan 2009 10:17:30 -0600

Barack Obama is quite charismatic. He reminds me very much of JFK. If there ever were a time that we needed an energetic, charismatic leader, now would be the time.

Kennedy asked not what can your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country.

Thomas Jefferson, far from being charismatic and known more these days for his dalliances with Sally Hemmings was perhaps Obama's polar opposite. An inquisitive sort with an outstanding mind, he was not in the same hemisphere as our new President when giving a speech. He did utter those famous words "the business of America is business".

I disagree strongly with the course of action that he and congress are following. They wish to stimulate the economy by spending their way out of it. I do realize that I am in the minority on this. Our greatest leaders realized that government is not the solution. People and businesses are.

Both sides of the isle have left the course with which this country was founded upon and what has made us successful. This country is heading for more entitlements and more social programs. The great experiment in democracy and a government by the people and for the people is becoming nothing more than a super-sized bread line. What can the government do for me?

In Defense of George Bush

Jim Mulleady (Coldwell Banker Mulleady REALTORS) — Thu, 22 Jan 2009 13:08:20 -0600

I realize that 78% of this country would rather have a colonoscopy than say anything positive about the outgoing President. I present some information that you may not be aware of:

•- The President pointed out as early as 2001 that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were headed toward an economic crisis. He reiterated his desire for additional oversight in 2003. At that time, Congressman Frank defended Fannie and Freddie and stated that everything seemed to be perfectly fine. Please view the youtube video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cMnSp4qEXNM&NR=1

•- When the President took the oath of Office in January of 2001, official US policy was for the removal of Saddam Hussein.

•- When the President took the oath of office in January of 2001, he inherited the situation in Afghanistan.

•- Although the President never did find weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, they did find the Iraqi's messing with enriching uranium. I find it odd that both Iran and Iraq, with some of the largest energy reserves in the world need to be developing alternative energy options. Here is the MSNBC/AP story on "yellowcake" that was very quietly removed and shipped to Canada in the summer of 2008.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25546334/

I cannot blame anyone for disliking George W. Bush. He is far from eloquent. His Texas accent and mannerisms are far from refined. He cannot say the word "nuclear". He has done a very poor job "selling" his opinions and actions. That said, I still believe the man to be a patriot. He is undeserving of "boos" and "Arrest Bush" demonstrations observed during the inauguration of Barack Obama.

Real Estate and Banking, Better Get Involved!

Jim Mulleady (Coldwell Banker Mulleady REALTORS) — Tue, 13 Jan 2009 09:32:27 -0600

One problem that we now have in the post meltdown world is the banks desire to "cherrypick" loans. The banking industry was giving away money to anyone and apparently everyone 12 months ago. Now the pendulum has swung over to the other side and they are unwilling to lend to even qualified candidates. They are choosing not to fund in many creative ways. Sometimes it is the borrower. Sometimes it is the property. Sometimes it is the amount. If everything does not pass the smell test, the loan originator is off to the next "sure thing" and you are left with a dead deal.

Successful REALTORS now must pay close attention to financing. We had to before but now you really have to. Even if the borrower is not your side.

Case in point. Buyer buys a lakeside cabin that is part of a condo. It is a 3 season cabin in the Northwoods. Seller is happy to get the offer. Buyer is looking forward to spending summers up north. Selling agent is not blessed with experience or a good manager. She does not realize that the mortgage for this cabin cannot be sold on the secondary market, Fannie or Freddie because of its seasonal status. Listing agent is a grizzled veteran and inquires about what is happening with the loan. Listing agent calls the selling agent and advises that she best be telling the lender that the cabin is seasonal now rather than find out at the last minute that the deal died at underwriting (d.a.u.).

Somewhere in the process, the truth will come out. Its better to face the music.

In this case, the listing agent called several banks. He found out that there were HUGE differences in what lenders were offering. Most were offering ARMS. Two offered fixed in-house programs with strong comparables. One would not even look at it.

It pays to shop and talk to many lenders. Surprisingly, the small banks appear to be more flexible and willing to look at competitive packages for loans outside of the secondary market.

Vilas Oneida Counties December Results

Jim Mulleady (Coldwell Banker Mulleady REALTORS) — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 14:35:15 -0600

Not a lot of "news" with this Northwoods News. December results were on the lackluster side. Our best month was January with sales of 158 units followed by May with sales of 128 units. The slowest month was February with sales of 53 units.

2008 was a slow year in terms of sales volume. The normal "blip" we get in the late summer/early fall months was decidedly clipped this year.

Many Sellers have not relisted in light of present market conditions. Overall sales were down approximately 40% in Vilas and Oneida Counties.

There is cause for optimism. The cost of money is down from 2008. New conforming (under $417,000) purchases have been quoted rates as low as 4.5%. Fuel prices are at least $1 below where they were one-year ago. The new administration is committed to getting the housing market kick started. Volume in California, Nevada and Arizona is up from where it was in 2007 and those markets usually begin trends.

There never has been a better time to be a Buyer!

Lake Home Financing

Jim Mulleady (Coldwell Banker Mulleady REALTORS) — Tue, 30 Dec 2008 12:31:48 -0600

Like we need more hurdles?

Secondary home sales are a different breed to begin with. It is a very emotional experience. After all, who really "needs" a lake home. With the highs of great economic environments you also get lows like 40% drop offs in volume like we are presently seeing here in the Northwoods.

In the post bank-bust world, getting loans has become more difficult. Most lenders are now requiring 20% down. In the days before the banks started paying attention, you could buy a lake home with little or no down. This requirement will cost us more sales. Buyers are able to handle the payments but are not looking to reduce their own liquidity by $80,000 (20% of average lake home value of $400,000)

Some good news here is that there are creative solutions for those willing to work them. Anxious sellers may pay points to buy down mortgages/payments/pmi.

Values are hanging tough as there are not a lot of bank owned properties here in the Northwoods. Without that anchor, home values are flat to down 3% overall.

December YTD Results Avg. Home Sales $

Jim Mulleady (Coldwell Banker Mulleady REALTORS) — Fri, 19 Dec 2008 15:10:57 -0600

Not a significant change from last month's numbers. What we look at is the average home sale price year to date versus previous years' average home sale price. It is a running average and changes monthly.

Thus far, prices are holding reasonably steady. Volume is significantly off; particularly in on-water homes where unit sales are down by as much as 50%. The lack of sales is easily attributable to the national economy. Northern Wisconsin is a resort market and other resort markets are experiencing similar drop-offs in volume.

So, the laws of supply and demand should dictate that prices should fall when the volume falls off. The issue in my mind is timing. Sellers are still in control even though Buyers have all the leverage. Thus far, Sellers have chosen not to lower prices and that has resulted in the low volume. Sellers who have lowered their price expectations have seen sales. I suspect that we will see more price reductions and more sales in the New Year.

Have we seen the bottom yet? Looking at sales in California, Nevada and Arizona where sales volume is going up, the bottom may be here.

Making Ice

Jim Mulleady (Coldwell Banker Mulleady REALTORS) — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 15:58:07 -0600

Winters are long here in the Northwoods. That is not a bad thing. Few things are more exhilirating than snow shoeing or skiing and coming in to a warm fire!

One of my personal joys is listening to the lake. In the summer, I never tire of hearing the waves lapping at the shoreline. In the winter we have two states: we are either making ice or losing ice. Its a good thing to have a foot or more of ice underfoot when snowmobiling or ice fishing.

When ice is being "made", it is a noisy process. A large crack is sounded as the ice expands into yet more ice. When the weather is quite cold, the cracking becomes much more frequent. Its actually a very comforting sound to those of us who travel regularly across the ice.

While lying in bed, I have been hearing a lot of cracking of the lake assuring me that I soon will be out on the ice again, enjoying the beautiful Northwoods winter!

Where the Smart Marketing Money is going

Jim Mulleady (Coldwell Banker Mulleady REALTORS) — Sat, 06 Dec 2008 12:38:23 -0600

Joe Spake and Marketing Sherpa are dead on with this blog.

Via Memphis Real Estate - Joe Spake:

Noticed how the local newspaper looks a little thinner lately? It is especially obvious to me in Sunday Real Estate supplement. It's not just the current economic situation that is causing the decreased amount of print advertising, it is marketers changing their tactics in favor of online media.

I have posted before on permission marketing vs. interruption marketing, and the trends indicated in the chart courtersy of Marketing Sherpa, support a more permission based approach as we see a significant reduction of traditional interruption techniques: direct mail, radio/tv, spam email, and print advertising. Some elements of online marketing are also projecting reduced use: paid ads on search engines and online display ads. Funny, though, that I get calls almost every day from SEO scammers and online ad sales folks. These folks work from the knowledge that many businesses and real estate agents stopped evolving with technology when they built their website a few years back. The chart shows mixed results in Web 2.0 activities. Is the 20% reduction portion due to lack of being able to integrate social media marketing to the core business, lack of knowledge of business uses of social media, or denial that social media will ever have valid marketing uses? The 48% -adding, is still very positive, and I believe we will see an acceleration of social media marketing, as traditional advertising prices continue to provide less and less ROI.

H/T to The Real Estate Bloggers

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Vilas Oneida Counties Unit Sales 12-4-08

Jim Mulleady (Coldwell Banker Mulleady REALTORS) — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 16:01:20 -0600

It's getting more difficult to put a positive spin on things. The pink curve says a lot of things about the market. Our typical hot season is now passed and the mountain of sales units that we usually build in July through October is decidedly clipped this year.

The positive spin I will point out is that our supply is coming down. Our sellers are a rare breed. Most can afford to ride out a storm. They are not willing to accept offers 40% below the asking price. You can see that the number of new listings continues to fall. We still have an outstanding inventory of properties.

President-elect Obama has tapped the National Association of REALTORS for ideas on how to improve the real estate industry. A possible plan is for a reduced interest rate, in the area of 4.5% for first time home buyers. This will not be for refinancing nor will it be for second homes. Our market is almost 80% recreational or second homes but this plan offers a great deal of promise. A healthier urban/suburban market will trickle down to improve our market here in the Northwoods.

Low interest rates, terrific inventory and slow sales all add up to one thing: it's a great time to be a buyer!