Bill's Boise Real Estate Blog

2009 Parade of Homes

Bill Williams (Coldwell Banker Tomlinson Group) — Fri, 24 Apr 2009 11:05:38 -0500

The Building Contractors Association of Southwestern Idaho is bringing their 2009 Parade of Homes to the Treasure Valley beginning Saturday April 25th and running through May 10th. Weekday hours are 5PM to 8PM, Fridays are 3PM to 8PM, and Saturday and Sunday hours are Noon to 8PM. This year the Parade of Homes is FREE! No tickets are required.

Reflecting the slower housing market, there are just 17 new homes on the Parade this year, but they are homes presented by many of the Valley's best builders including Tahoe Homes, The Marrs Company, Capitol Building, Brighton Homes, Crocker homes, Borup Construction, James Clyde Custom Homes, Boise Hunter Homes, Berkeley Building Company, Roth Homes, Flynner Homes, and Eric Evans Construction.

There is an excellent clickable tour map online at the BCA website. You can also click through to previews of each home.

January Home Sales in Ada County

Bill Williams (Coldwell Banker Tomlinson Group) — Fri, 06 Feb 2009 18:08:22 -0600

I just got my latest newsletter out, and here is the most recent real estate update I sent to my friends and past clients...

As expected, January usually sets the low mark for the year for Ada County home sales and that is true again for 2009. Single Family Homes sold in January were a meager 237, a 23% decline from January 2008. Remember that I mentioned in the December newsletter that last year we started the year with a 38% decline, so you know I am looking for bright spots. Traffic at Open Houses and individual showings have both been lower than we've been used to, although with the low interest rates of the last couple weeks that is changing.

One sign of that is the increasing number of contracts Pending. Currently there are 527 homes under contract which is a big jump from the 459 we started the year with. One of my Title company contacts told me that they saw a number of sales close with loans at rates below 5% a week or so ago (although the rates have again gone back over 5% for now). Rates at that really historic low make it easy for some to make the decision to buy. And considering that the inventory of active listings hasn't changed from January's 3635, perhaps we are in a calmer place in our market.

One interesting thing the data shows is that the sales are being made in a bit lower price level in the market. Last year's median price in January was $217,500, while this year it was $180,000. This is a 17% decline year over year. While that implies lower prices, it also more strongly indicates that buyers are working in the lower levels of the market. The "expensive new construction boom" we had two and three years ago is over, so those sales don't affect our numbers as strongly as they did then. Another way to show that is to see that of the sales in January this year, 60% of them were homes priced below $200,000. Last January only 40% of the homes sold were below $200,000, and in 2007 it was barely 36%. That is quite a market change! And one last tidbit, it should come as no surprise to know the length of time on market has increased from 73 in 2008 to 90 days this year, according to MLS figures.

We don't know what 2009 will bring, but if you plan to buy or sell this year and I can be of service to you, please call me. And if not you, I would love your referral for a friend.
Thanks! Bill (208) 921-9512

Boise Holiday Parade This Weekend

Bill Williams (Coldwell Banker Tomlinson Group) — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 10:37:06 -0600

"Deck the horse with boughs of holly
Fa la la la lah..."

The annual Boise Christmas Parade takes place Saturday November 29th in downtown Boise. The parade begins at 9:45AM, starting from the Morrison Center and proceeding north down Capitol Boulevard, west on Battery Street, then south on 9th to the finish on University Drive. This is a wonderful holiday parade featuring all of the things the big television parades lack, including antique cars, lots of local horse and rodeo groups, local businesses, and school marching bands. The weather promises to be clear and bright, and cold, so dress the kids warmly, bring a thermos, and turn out for a great old fashioned style holiday parade. This is one of those quality of life events that get Boise on so many "top places" lists.

Boise Area Home Sales and Prices

Bill Williams (Coldwell Banker Tomlinson Group) — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 09:56:38 -0600

In September we saw an increase in closed sales over the year before. It was a situation that the local and national papers heralded as very good news for the troubled housing market. I even heard one local radio real estate show suggest we'd see a strong rebound in October, November, and December. I warned that the number could also be due to the big mortgage stumble in August of 2007. So, how did we come out in October? Did we pass the bottom, or was it just a hiccup?

Ada County home sales for October come in at 409 for Single Family homes (no acreage, condos, mobiles, or townhomes). Last year in October there were 463 sales. That is a 12% drop, and puts us back on the track of declining sales we've been on all year long. The economy is on many minds, and mortgage rates rose a bit at the beginning of the month of November, although they have come back in the last few days. Anecdotally, many agents at the beginning of the month had reported fewer showings and less urgency in their buyer clients. It is a difficult time if you are a seller who has to move, or you're trying to sell a home in a hurry. Plan on being super clean and priced very competitively.

One bright spot in the market is the continuing decline in inventory. Currently there are 4175 Single Family homes on the market in Ada County. Last year at this time there were nearly 4500 active listings. Pending sales are slightly lower this year compared to the number we saw last year, with 457 contracts waiting to close right now. So with inventory declining, pendings remaining firm, and the rate of decline easing up from the beginning of the year is it time to join radio-guy and call the bottom? No. But it isn't the end of the world either. In fact, prices in the Treasure Valley are more affordable than they have been in a couple of years. If you are a buyer, be happy, and go shopping.

If you're a seller though, you need to be aware that we are still considering this a "declining market". Granted, the Treasure Valley area isn't seeing the same degree of price declines other markets have seen. According to the Idaho Business Review, our area is showing less than half the decline the National numbers show. "Nationally, the October median existing-home price is down 17.3 percent from its 2008 high in June, from $215,100 to $183,300, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. In Ada County, prices declined in that same period from a median of $209,900 to $195,400, or just 7.6 percent, according to data from the Intermountain Multiple Listing Service." Other data providers suggest our rate of decline could be as high as 1% per month.

Bottom line if you're a seller? Believe what your Realtor tells you about the market price your home can be expected to bring today. The old trick of pricing it a little high and letting the market reach up to get you has not worked in years, yet we continue to see it. If the goal is to sell the property, and if you really must move on, then price it where it will sell. There is no magic in this market, and there are no agents who can really sell your property for what it might have gotten last year, or what you "need", or what you "know it's worth". Meet the market on its terms and you will be successful in selling your home.

Ada County Sales for July

Bill Williams (Coldwell Banker Tomlinson Group) — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 14:29:53 -0500

In normal years past we've usually seen the highest monthly sales during the month of June or July. It appears that our market has settled down to a normal flow, even if the total sales figure is smaller than we'd like. Single Family home sales in Ada County for the month of July were 489. That is from early numbers, and they might find a few more reported in the next week or so. That is slightly below June, which looks like a normal sales pattern. I mentioned last month that the percent below a year ago was better at 25%, and that has held in July at a 26% decline.

Another encouraging number is a slight decrease in single family homes inventory, to 4634. This leaves out townhomes, condos, and homes with acreage. Pessimists may point out that small decrease is not significant, but I see this as the first month all year we haven't had more homes for sale than we started with. The pending contracts number is steady at 661, which is 12 fewer than the beginning of July, and about 10% fewer than last year at this time.
Last year we had more than 7 months worth of inventory this month. Today we have at least 10 months. That rise happened early in the year, and the majority of those homes are existing homes for resale, not new construction.

Sellers are finding it hard to adjust to current market prices. Those prices aren't set by Realtors, or appraisers, or tax assessors, they are set by people who actually paid money for homes in this market. There is still a gap between what buyers want to pay and what sellers want to receive. And as has been the case all year in our market, the best conditioned homes with the best prices have been selling, while the rest just sit.

Ada County Sales For June

Bill Williams (Coldwell Banker Tomlinson Group) — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 11:37:50 -0500

Another modest improvement for Single Family home sales in Ada County for the month of June continues our string of higher sales numbers. There were a total of 535 SF properties sold during the month. Last year there were 710 sales for June. The bright spot of that comparison comes while looking at the trend, which also continues to improve. Remember that our declines are getting smaller each month, going from a 42% decline at the beginning of the year to a 25% decline in June.

Another trend to watch is the number of homes currently listed. As expected, this number has increased each month as more homes come on the market. Part of this is seasonal. We started the year with around 3800 active SF listings, and that number climbed rapidly each month, as it does in any normal year. The increase over the last month has slowed considerably, for a total of 4648. That is only 80 more than last month, and roughly where we were last year at this time. Encouraging news, I'd say. And pending sales are down slightly to 673.

One item I found interesting at the beginning of the month was a look at the rental market in Ada County. As prices for homes rose so rapidly in 2006, and home sales slowed down in 2007, the number of available homes for rent went down sharply and the prices firmed up. Vacancy rates last summer for 3 bedroom, 2 bath homes got into the low single digits, and rents got up close to $980-$1000 in some neighborhoods. This summer however, we see that trend reversing. Vacancy rates by some measures are around 7-8%, and the price is back around $910-$925. This gives us an overall housing market that is full of choices at much more attractive prices, whether you are a renter or a buyer. And with interest rates still low, but starting to creep up, I give the nod to the buyers.

Meridian Dairy Days 2008

Bill Williams (Coldwell Banker Tomlinson Group) — Tue, 17 Jun 2008 17:59:48 -0500

Meridian Dairy Days is coming at the end of this week, June 18th through the 21st, highlighted by the parade on Friday evening. This is truly one of our best small town events here in Meridian, and the weather looks like it's going to be perfect. Last year there were thousands of folks who turned out to see the parade, which features tractors, horses and riders, a number of very creative floats, the cheer squads , bands, and teams from the local schools, lots of classic cars, and a few racing cars from Meridian Speedway. A great time for everyone, celebrating our dairy heritage, and our small town Idaho community.

The parade stages on Watertower, and gets started at 7pm, running North down Main Street, then back up 2 1/2 and 3rd Streets. Come early, pick your spot, and remember to cheer for the Meridian Lions and the Rodeo Queens.

There will also be a carnival at Storey Park from Wednesday through Saturday, and the Meridian Chamber's Pancake Feed returns Thursday evening beginning at 5pm with a symphony to follow. Friday night also marks the start of an arts and crafts fair featuring 80 vendors.

The Dairy Days celebration wouldn't be complete without cows and goats, so on Saturday, all day, there will be a cow and goat show, along with a number of educational exhibits for everyone to enjoy. See the Chamber of Commerce website for more info. See you there!

Ada County Home Sales For May

Bill Williams (Coldwell Banker Tomlinson Group) — Tue, 17 Jun 2008 16:59:05 -0500

Home sales in Ada County during May showed a modest improvement over April's numbers, with 504 single family homes closed for the month. While that doesn't seem like much, the monthly increases are showing a normal trend for this time of year. We have a market that is acting normally, albeit at lower levels than we are used to seeing. Last year we had 735 homes sold, so our sales as of May this year are down 33% from a year ago. Remember that in April we were 34% behind, and before that we had been as high as 42%. We seem to be trending in the right direction. Today, sales for the month of June to date are only 16% behind the same date last year.

Currently there are 4658 active listings on our MLS, which is a bit higher than last year's 4524, and nearly one hundred more than we had at the beginning of the month. That doesn't help the sellers to get better prices for their homes, since there are still plenty of choices on the market, in all price ranges. The lower end homes are selling well, as would be expected, with the best conditioned homes occasionally drawing multiple offers. Price and condition remain the key to selling homes in this market.

There are 718 pending contracts on the market now, which is slightly higher than last month. What is encouraging about that is the comparison to last year. The decline from a year ago in sales has been getting better as I mentioned. But the difference in this year's pendings to last year's is getting better even faster. Pendings at the end of May were only 19% below a year ago, where sales were 33% below. I would expect that to translate into firmer sales figures going through the summer months, and so far that is holding up.

Everything considered, it is still a buyer's market. There is plenty to chose from out there right now, and prices are back to levels that make much of Ada County very affordable. Sellers need to price their properties correctly, and then have them looking their very best, in order to find a willing buyer. Homes priced even a little over market are not getting showings, where others that are priced correctly are seeing many showings and even multiple offers.

Ada County Home Sales For April

Bill Williams (Coldwell Banker Tomlinson Group) — Mon, 05 May 2008 12:33:18 -0500

The most frequently asked question right now is "Are any houses selling?" Some folks seem surprised when I tell them, yes, homes are selling in the Treasure Valley right now. Definitely not on the same pace as two summers ago, but better than we saw over the winter. In fact, the 460 homes that sold in Ada County in April is the best showing we've had since August last year, when the mortgage lending problem happened. Year over year, April '08 was 34% below '07, but we've been 38 to 42% below in recent months. For the valley as a whole, 634 single family homes sold in April. Pending home sales are holding steady at 700 in Ada county as I write this.

Currently there are 4460 active listings for single family homes in Ada County, 6558 for the Treasure Valley area represented by Ada and Canyon counties. That is a great deal of inventory, and that is the primary reason for the soft house prices. There is just too much out there for buyers to choose from, and successful sellers are having to be negotiable on price. Some areas are holding up better than others, of course, but there are no "hot" areas right now, so it remains a buyer's market.

One of the other questions that comes up frequently concerns short sales and foreclosures. To listen to the National media, the real estate market is swamped by people losing their homes. That is not the case in our market, although we have seen an increase in short sales. That is definitely not a significant portion of our market right now though. Of the 6558 actives in two counties on MLS right now, only 69 show as short sales (using a simple search of the mls).

Is this the right time for YOU to be considering buying a new home? If you, or someone you know is interested in buying or selling a home in the Meridian and Boise areas, please call me. I'd love to help you get started!

2008 Parade Of Homes

Bill Williams (Coldwell Banker Tomlinson Group) — Mon, 21 Apr 2008 11:05:53 -0500

It's time again for the Parade of Homes! The 2008 Parade of Homes by the Building Contractors Association of Southwestern Idaho will take place beginning Saturday April 26th through Sunday May 11th. This year there are a few less than the 37 new homes that were on the Parade last year, but this year's entries promise to be just as stunning. Communities from Kuna, Eagle, Hidden Springs, Meridian, and Boise are again represented. In addition to familiar names like Tuscany, Paramount, Crossfield, Bridgetower, and Saguaro Canyon, you'll find newcomers like Avimor, Englefield Green, and Alpine Point.

The 27 builders presenting homes this year include Eaglewood Homes, Westminster Homes, Suncor Idaho,Thompson Homes, Kastera Homes, Guaranteed Quality Construction, Whitney Homes, Canyon Crest Homes, Brighton Homes, Diamond Ridge Construction, Creekside Custom Homes, Tahoe Homes, Ted Mason Signature Homes, Zach Evans Construction, J. Edward Homes, Borup Construction, Markar Design & Construction, The Legend Company, and Hubble Homes.

These builders have brought together a great collection of new homes in a variety of sizes, and the prices reflect the changing market this year (no entries in the $6M range). A wide variety of styles is in this collection as well, including townhomes, California Spanish, European, French Country, and Craftsman. If you love looking at homes, or want to go looking for home project ideas, this is the premier home tour of the year for the Treasure Valley.

The Parade Homes are open daily from 5pm until 8pm weekdays (3pm opening on Fridays), and from noon until 8pm on weekends. Tickets are required, and they can be purchased at most Select-A-Seat locations, where you can also pick up a magazine format program which describes all of the homes, and explains more about the BCASWI. You purchase your ticket ahead of time ($10 each, but not available at the homes) and present it at the first home you wish to see. It is exchanged for a puchcard which you present at each home. In a change from previous years, my understanding is that the ticket will allow unlimited entries to each home. In the past, the punchcard allowed you to see each home once plus 5 re-entries you could use if you wished to see your favorites another time or two. Yes, people do come back multiple times to see some homes. Give yourself a number of evenings and weekend days if you intend to see all of them. And remember to wear slip-off shoes or sandals (hopefully Spring will come in time for the Parade).

I hope to see you out there.

Ada County home Sales For March

Bill Williams (Coldwell Banker Tomlinson Group) — Mon, 21 Apr 2008 10:07:47 -0500

Single Family home sales in Ada County increased in March, climbing back over the 400 unit level, with 430 sales closed for the month. Last year's 711 units was the third highest March on record, so the comparison is tough. And while 430 is still a fairly weak number, it is well over January's low of 302. The sales numbers are proving out what agents have been saying, that traffic and buyer interest is increasing.

Also interesting and encouraging for the month is another strong increase in the pending contracts figure. We are starting April with 694 contracts pending, well up from March, which had 575. Buyers are finding homes, and contracts are being accepted. One interesting note, in a quick look through the pending sales I can only find 12 that are shown as short sales.

There has been some talk that much of the increase in pending contracts is due to short sales taking so long to be approved and closed, but that doesn't appear to be the case to me. Inventory levels continue to stay high as well however, with 4270 active listings on the market in Ada county. Ada and Canyon combined show a total of 6280 Single Family homes on the market. Adding in single family homes with acreage, townhomes, and condos gives you a choice of 7809 listings to choose from here in the Treasure Valley. With that kind overhang on the market, we will not see firming prices any time soon. When your agent talks about it being a great time to buy property, this is what he means. There is a lot to choose from, and prices are soft. Really well kept and well priced homes are selling. Homes with problems, or that aren't priced to this market are sitting.

Ada County Home Sales for February

Bill Williams (Coldwell Banker Tomlinson Group) — Fri, 07 Mar 2008 13:37:06 -0600

Single family home sales in Ada County rose to 371 units in February over January's 302 units. Median listing price was $206,990 while median sold price was $203,000. Here is a good place to take a closer look at "median price". In January, the median price was $217,500. Does that mean that home prices fell by $14,500? Not at all. It simply means that in January we saw more higher end homes sold than in February. Certainly, prices are not what they were two years ago. But we did NOT just lose 7% in one month. Remember that when you read the dramatic headline in the newspaper.

At the moment there are 4061 active single family listings. That is a 163 unit increase from January's inventory level of 3898. These figures do not include townhomes or condos, or single family with acreage. I expect the inventory to continue building into the spring, although there is no way of knowing now just how much more inventory might be out there waiting "for Spring and the good weather". Pending sales figures were very good at 591, increasing from 455 in mid-January. There has been some discussion whether the pending number is being affected by the number of short sales that are potentially out there and "taking forever" to close. A cursory look at a number of the pending listings doesn't seem to bear that out however, but it will be something to check later as the season progresses.

I have had an increase in buyer showings this month, as well as sellers getting ready to market their homes. Well priced homes are selling, and some are drawing multiple offers. I worked with buyers at the end of February to make an offer in a multiple offer situation. Our full price offer wasn't quite enough, as the home sold in less than 12 days ABOVE the asking price! And another buyer missed out on a home that went underr contract while we waited for a lender preapproval letter. Sellers, take a lesson. There ARE buyers out there. Price it right to begin with and you will be successful.

Many of the builders are working on inventory now, at good prices. I'm told that land and lumber prices have gone down enough to make for some attractive builds possible now. Permits are still not being pulled at a rate to make up for the inventory being sold. That sets up a situation where buyers looking for new construction have a great opportunity to choose from plenty of inventory at attractive prices. Once the inventory falls below the demand, and if new starts stay low, expect new home prices to firm up.

March FORBES will again report Boise in the top 5 cities for business, and Micron just announced it is planning a new plan here in the Treasure Valley! The future is bright and it continues to be true that well priced homes in top condition are selling in Ada County.

Ada County Home Sales in January

Bill Williams (Coldwell Banker Tomlinson Group) — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 18:08:31 -0600

As beautiful as it is, the snow has definitely added to the chill on the Treasure Valley real estate market this January. Only 302 Single Family homes sold in all of Ada county during the month, down from 464 a year ago. The Valley as a whole saw only 434. There is just no way to spin that into good news, especially if you are a seller. Inventory has stopped decreasing as well. There were 3898 active SF listings in Ada this morning, which is nearly identical to the level we had at this time last February. In talking to other agents and to sellers this past two weeks, showing activity seems to be down quite a bit, due to the snow.

There are two encouraging signs right now. The first is that many investors, as well as many homeowners who do not have to sell right away, are taking their properties off the market. Although this is holding rental rates in check as more investor homes get re-rented and come off market, it is a step we need to go through in order to work through the inventory and firm up sales. We'll have to watch how that changes as the weather calms down. Perhaps the homeowners will re-list later in the Spring? The second positive sign is there has been an increase in pending sales over the month. Currently there are 500 pending sales, which is about 25% higher than at the beginning of January, so although activity seems off, the numbers show that there are buyers finding homes to buy.

Price has been the big issue for both buyers and sellers lately, and it is especially important for the sellers. It is true there are buyers out there that are writing what some sellers feel to be insulting offers ($80,000 offered for a $160,000 home? Yes, that IS insulting). Those don't fly in any market, not even this one. But it is also true that many sellers aren't hearing what the market has to say ($360,000 asked for a home assessed at $289,000? Not going to happen). You will not get a 2006 price for your home. And while we haven't seen declines like other parts of the country, in most neighborhoods I've looked at recently, prices no longer command a 1.2 to 1.4 premium over the assessor's tax valuation (some areas are selling below now). If you need to buy or sell right now, it is not the time to be a do it yourselfer, especially when it comes to pricing your home.

Avoid Foreclosure and Bankruptcy Scams

Bill Williams (Coldwell Banker Tomlinson Group) — Fri, 18 Jan 2008 14:53:44 -0600

With all the talk about mortgages resetting and people losing their homes to foreclosure, there has also been a corresponding rise in foreclosure scams across the country. The Boise real estate market hasn't been hit the way many parts of the nation have, but there has been an increase in the number of "questionable" practices seen in the Treasure Valley. Should the economic slowdown that many are predicting come to pass, we'll no doubt see even more of this kind of activity.

Foreclosure scams can target either side of the foreclosure equation, aiming for naive buyers looking for that impossibly great deal, as well as the scams targeting those in danger of losing their homes. My hint for avoiding the first kind of scam is to simply ignore the TV info-mercials, the newsletters and websites, and the "get the secret list of foreclosures your Realtor and bank don't want you to see" emails. You won't get rich with any of those, and in fact, you might find yourself on one of those lists yourself if you follow some of that advice.

For the homeowner trying to avoid foreclosure, the most common foreclosure scams are phoney "rescue" schemes. And if you think this is something new, here is a quote from the Better Business Bureau, from an article dated 2003 (before the boom and before the subprime mess).

"The fraudulent operators may promise to take care of your problem with your mortgage lender or to obtain refinancing for you. Sometimes they also ask you make mortgage payments directly to them. They have even been known to ask the homeowner to hand over their property deed, claiming that if the homeowner then makes the mortgage payments to them, they will be able to in stay in their home. Instead of contacting your lender or refinancing your loan, the con artist pockets all the money you paid, and then files a bankruptcy case in your name - sometimes without your knowledge."

Bankruptcy scams and foreclosure rescue scams have been around forever, certainly much longer than the current real estate market slowdown. So, how can you avoid the scams, and what should you watch out for? Here are some tips

Don't be afraid to stay in contact with your lender. Work WITH them.
Before signing anything that purports to be a rescue plan, get competent advice, either from your lender or a lawyer.
Never sign anything with blank spaces or unfilled lines.
Never make house payments to anyone or any company other than your lender.
Never sign a quitclaim, or any sales contract that promises to "lease back" your home.

Foreclosures and bankruptcies are serious business, and they are one area of life that isn't easy and you need professional help. Avoid anyone who tells you otherwise... they don't have YOUR best interests at heart.

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Interested in a short piece about a woman who took her foreclosure into her own hands, and tried to sell her house off piece by piece on eBay? I wrote a few more comments about this subject on Our Meridian Blog.

Suggestions for Homeowners in a Down Market

Bill Williams (Coldwell Banker Tomlinson Group) — Thu, 17 Jan 2008 17:54:24 -0600

The housing and real estate markets are cyclical. I know that the local paper and the National press haven't reminded you of that fact, preferring instead to trumpet the doom of falling home prices and slowing building starts. But trust me, the market IS cyclical, and every up-swing is followed by a down-swing. The first down-swing market I can remember came in the late 70's and early 80's. And after going through this more than once, may I suggest that now is the perfect time to be adding value to your home. Here are a few things to think about

Four suggestions for current homeowners

First, if you are currently a homeowner, and you don't need to sell your current home or buy another one, don't let the news make you anxious. They're selling papers and advertising. Know your financing terms, especially if you have an adjustable rate loan, and make your payments on time. And then, enjoy living in your home! The bad news is not about you.

Second, plan your annual upkeep projects. Maintain your home as you live in it. Keep up on the cleaning, the painting, the yard work, and the maintenance of the heating and air conditioning. Doing so will increase your enjoyment, prevent costly problems, and you will be closer to ready when the time does come to sell. Check out Bob Vila's site for a sample checklist.

Third, consider making upgrades to your home, especially upgrades that make it energy efficient. One of the best investments you can make is increasing your home's energy efficiency. A great place to begin is the Energy Star website. Things like replacing older style windows, or installing a more efficient furnace or air conditioner add value to your home, and make it more attractive to buyers when that day comes.

Fourth, if your home is more than a few years old, it could be to your advantage to update or even remodel. Replacing an outdated lighting package with a modern style is an example of a relatively inexpensive update that many homeowners can do themselves. Replacing a worn carpet, especially if you are still planning to live in your home another year or so, is something you should do for yourself. Don't wait until you sell it, enjoy it! Updating or upgrading things like cabinets and countertops is project most homeowners will need to hire out, but it is a remodel that returns a greater amount of its cost later on. Not all remodels return their cost however. Before you begin, check out a site like Remodeling Online for their annual Cost vs Value Report.

One of the bright spots for homeowners during downturns in the building market is the fact that many tradesmen have increased the amount of remodel and upgrade work that they are willing to handle. During the boom times, it's "all hands on deck" in the new construction neighborhoods, and finding someone to do your remodel can be very difficult. Not so today. I think that you will find it easier to get the attention of tradespeople AND suppliers these days.

If you follow these simple ideas, you can ignore the bad news and actually increase your home's value, your enjoyment of living in it now, and its appeal to buyers later on.

Taking a Closer Look

Bill Williams (Coldwell Banker Tomlinson Group) — Mon, 14 Jan 2008 19:38:45 -0600

I wanted to make a little closer look at the numbers for last year, now that we're into January. In Ada County we finished 2007 -34% in homes sold compared to 2006, and off 33% in total sales dollars. For the year, the median price was off 2%, most of which happened in the last few months as the mortgage problem reared its head and gave us all fits in the Fall.

I've mentioned New Construction inventory being steadily worked through, and that our area hadn't overbuilt to the same degree seen in other markets in the country. The end of the year numbers bear that out. In February of 2007 we had nearly 1800 new construction homes listed in Ada County. At the end of December we had 1168. That is quite an improvement, and it is reflected across all price ranges too, except the over $1M range, where sales are running only 1 or 2 per month for both new and resale (but do you remember when a $1M property was a rare thing here? It wasn't that long ago!) And in the underr $200K range we have been building inventory since last Spring, although, as you mught expect, there is still pretty good demand in that range.

Existing inventory is showing an increase since January/February of last year, although the current total is below the Summer peak in August. Last year at this timethere was about a six month supply in Ada County homes for sale over all prices, and right now it is about 11 months. Watching the inventory numbers overall shrink but the "absorption rate" increase, you can see how the real estate market has slowed.

These numbers only tell the broad outline, they don't tell the details. In the under $200K range there is a 5-7 month supply, while over $700K the supply is nearly 3 years. By comparison, some areas in Florida have a nearly 10 year supply! The big numbers also don't show the details across the county by area. Star has too much inventory in all price ranges, both new construction and existing homes. Eagle inventory over $300K is high, but Kuna is even higher, mostly in existing homes. As you might guess, North Boise under $300K is still moving a little better than the rest of the county, and Northwest Boise is almost as good, followed by the Bench area under $300K.

Meridian is a big area, and it is of course a mixed bag. Most of the inventory, both new and existing, is in the Northwest and Northeast parts of Meridian, where the supply right now is about 9 to 12 months. South of the freeway has fewer homes for sale, but fewer sales as well, so the supply is a bit longer, with the higher end homes in the Southwest side having the greatest supply in terms of time needed to work through it.

Are there any bright spots right now? Anecdotally, there is more traffic in the subdivisions and open houses again. Inquiries from out of state have picked up as well. Interest rates are lower this January than they were in 2007, and my lenders tell me there are still good programs out there. And while it is not a "hot" market, we've seen a jump in pending contracts over the last 10 days, from 366 to 426 this morning, which is the first pop we've seen in awhile, so we'll take it.

December Ada County Home Sales

Bill Williams (Coldwell Banker Tomlinson Group) — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 14:52:49 -0600

As expected, December home sales have come in as the lowest in 2007. Single family homes in Ada County for the month totaled 372, according to MLS data. That compares quite favorably to November's 388, but it is still 38% fewer than December a year ago, and for the year leaves us down about 36% compared to 2006.

The bright spot in the latest numbers is again the decreasing number of active listings. This morning there were 3781 homes listed (not counting condos, townhomes, or properties with acreage). This is the lowest inventory we've seen in a year, and marks 5 months in a row of declining inventory. I haven't finished all of the numbers yet, but the decline in resale homes will likely again be slightly greater than the decline in new construction listings, due to the continued very low rate of new spec building in the valley.

January will be another slow sales month, both traditionally, and by looking at the current number of pending transactions. Pendings are as low as they've been all year, currently 366. We'll have to pick up the pace to catch January '07's 464 Solds, but a 35% decrease would result in fewer than 300 sales for the month. It'll be interesting to see what comes about.

The Treasure Valley has held up much better than the National market. Our foreclosure rate is less than 1%, and many of the short sales I've heard of are people who tried to be investors and bought late in the cycle and now cannot get out on the positive side. Live in homeowners don't seem to be as hard hit here at this time.

It continues to be a buyers' market, although there are still sellers who are not realistically priced, as there are buyers who are truly looking for the "steal of a deal". We seem to have hit a spot where everyone is waiting to see who blinks first. Buyers, don't be afraid to step up, as interest rates are still low, but your choices are more limited now than they were 6 months ago. Sellers, be realistic on your price, and be competitive, because well priced and well presented homes are selling.

November Ada County Home Sales

Bill Williams (Coldwell Banker Tomlinson Group) — Fri, 07 Dec 2007 16:57:35 -0600

Preliminary numbers from the MLS this morning show that total sales in Ada County for November fell back again to roughly September's levels. There were only 388 closed sales recorded for the month, which is a new low, and fewer than I had expected. The bright spot in the report is that inventory continues to fall, as more homes are sold or simply taken off the market. Right now there are 4275 Single Family homes listed in Ada County, down from 4604 in October, and well off the summer high which was over 5100 homes! And as the market slows down for the holidays, the pending number is slowing down as well. Earlier this week it was 468, which is barely 20 fewer than a month ago.

One of the positive things we can say about our Boise area market is that the new construction situation is much healthier here than the rest of the Nation as an average. We all know about the region's low unemployment (2.7% compared to the national average at 4.7%), and strong population and job growth. The construction of new homes during the 2005 boom was about 56 units per 100 new residents. Sounds like a lot, but the national average was 75 per 100. Currently, we're probably on pace for only 28 per 100 new residents, while the national average is still 48. So it appears that we did not overbuild to the degree seen in other areas of the country, and we're underbuilding now at a rate below the national average. New construction inventory is being steadily absorbed. What this means is that with Boise's strong economic outlook, and positive population growth, our Treasure Valley region's housing market should rebound much sooner than much of the rest of the Nation.

Eagle and Lexington Hills

Bill Williams (Coldwell Banker Tomlinson Group) — Tue, 13 Nov 2007 17:26:35 -0600

I received a comment on a blog post last week, asking about the current market in Eagle. "Eagle" has some of the widest variation in different real estate possibilities of any municipality in the Treasure Valley. I asked the commenter if he would narrow it down a bit for me, and he said the Lexington Hills area would be representative of the type of properties he was interested in. He was curious about how the market is these days.

Currently, there are 373 Single Family properties for sale in Eagle. 24 of those are in Lexington Hills, with prices from $264K up to $864K, which illustrates my point about varied properties. I don't have any comparison numbers from last year, for actives, so I won't make a comment about that being a high or low number of active listings. I have no reason to believe that Lexington Hills is anything but similar to the Valley as a whole, which means lots of available inventory, although dropping from the summer peak.

Now, "solds" we can compare. Between the beginning of June and the first week of November, there have been 162 contracts closed (and reported to the MLS) in all of Eagle. That looks like a rough 30 per month, so we have just over a year's supply of homes on the market. Lexington Hills has seen 15 sales in that time, or 3 per month average. That means we have about an 8 month supply. Interesting.

How do those sales compare to last year? Well, for Eagle as a whole, the same period a year ago showed 238 sales. And for Lexington Hills, last year there were 21 sales in the same time. Similar trend. How about prices? In Eagle last year, the median price was $376,000, with a high of $1.9M. This year, the median is $370,000, and a high of $1.18M. Just on raw numbers like that, that seems pretty good to me, for a market that the newspapers keep telling us in the pits. Lexington Hills? Ok, the median in the same period last year looks like it was $359,000 with a high sale at $592,000. This year, the median looks to be $377,500 during that period, with a high of $725,000.

One last thing I looked at was a quick comparison of list prices to actual sales prices. A year ago in Eagle, the homes that sold closed for an average of 96% of list price. This year, the buyers are being a little tougher, or the sellers aren't being realistic when they start, because the closed sales are only %90% of list as an average. A similar trend shows in Lexington Hills. Last year I see 94% of listed price, and this year I see 91% of listed price. Pick a solid neighborhood!

I can't say what individual house prices did. This only looks at averages and medians for a big piece of our market. But it shows that in the Treasure Valley, and Eagle in particular, homeowners have been spared the horrible markets that some areas of the country are going through. If you are interested in this kind of closer look, I did a similar look at a neighborhood in Meridian. It too proves my point that well presented, well kept, and well priced homes are selling in the Treasure Valley, and providing good value for buyers and realistic sellers.

October Ada County Sales

Bill Williams (Coldwell Banker Tomlinson Group) — Tue, 06 Nov 2007 11:59:46 -0600

October home sales in Ada County rebounded slightly from the barely 400 units in September. There were a total of 455 Single Family homes closed during the month. For the year to date, 6059 homes have been sold in the county, as reported to the MLS. If you consider Fall of 2005 as the rough top of the run up, then on a yearly basis unit sales are off almost 38% compared to 2005's 9746, 31% compared to 2006's 8783. Quite a correction, but a needed one. No market can stay healthy if the kind of excess we saw in late 2005 continues too long. Ask the folks in California, Arizona, and Nevada. The speculation and over heating in their markets was well beyond what we had here in the Treasure Valley.

Another sign of better conditions in our market is the continuing decline in inventory we are seeing, including in the new construction market. Currently there are 4449 active single family homes listed on the MLS. Compare that to the peak early this summer of more than 5100 residences for sale. Pending sales show 486 units waiting to close, which is down a bit from last month, but not unexpected. We've had a bit more customer traffic in the last couple weeks, buyers from out of town asking questions, questions from people about pricing their homes, calls about lots, and questions about builders. Coming into the holiday season, I expect more inventory to come off the market, and no real increase in sales. It is encouraging to see people out and about again, and I believe September was a mortgage market hiccup rather than a sign of further weakening.

Meridian Real Estate Sales

Sales of homes in Meridian show the same improvement that the county numbers show. There are currently 1360 active single Family homes listed in the MLS in Meridian, compared to 1449 at the beginning of October. And there were 134 sold during the month, with 148 are currently pending. That suggests a 10 month supply of homes at this pace, which is much better than last month's numbers would have indicated. We normally consider 6 months to be a "balanced" market.

The Meridian area has also seen a slight increase in interest from buyers and sellers this past month. I've seen continued land prep in some of the subdivisions, and I know of builders who are planning to begin new builds in the next few weeks. I appreciate that the newspapers, and radio and television news, want to report on real estate like they do the stock market. That is a very misleading approach, because the factors that drive the stock market up and down are not necessarily factors that influence the real estate market.

Real estate is driven by the needs of people. Marriages create new families. Babies happen, kids grow bigger. Job changes happen, dreams change. Towns grow bigger, business moves in or grows, opportunities are created. Kids move away and start their own lives, and mom and dad can sell the "old home" and pursue new dreams. The dynamics behind the real estate market are people dynamics first, not money dynamics. It's good to remember that.

Tony ISN'T Dead! Season 7 Trailer

Bill Williams (Coldwell Banker Tomlinson Group) — Thu, 25 Oct 2007 19:03:08 -0500

So, I know I'm not here much anymore... but I wanted to pop in and give you all a link to the new Season 7 trailer.

Lots of surprises, not the least of which is...

oh, see for yourselves

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8IkWdlkIvxo

Fall Collection Tour on Now

Bill Williams (Coldwell Banker Tomlinson Group) — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 14:28:02 -0500

On thing that is always fun, especially if you're in the market for a new home, is the Building Contractors Association of SW Idaho's annual Fall Collection. This past weekend was the opening weekend, but the show continues for the next two weekends, Saturday and Sunday October 13, 14, 20, and 21. The homes are open from 11am until 5pm on those days. Admission is free!

This year, the Fall Collection has 26 homes on tour for you to visit, with homes in Boise, Star, Eagle, and Meridian. A majority of the homes this Fall are in Meridian, and they are relatively close to each other. The Meridian communities represented include Bridgetower, Paramount, the new community of Crossfield, Stradda Bellissima, Saguaro Canyon, and Settlers Bridge. Some of the builders with homes on the tour are Capitol Building, Tahoe, Amyx, Brighton, Thompson Homes, Eric Evans, Stacy Construction, and Alder Creek just to name a few.

I haven't been in all of the homes yet, but the ones I have seen are beautiful and well worth the visit. You can find maps and pictures of all the homes on the BCASWI website. This weekend, if you need some distraction waiting for the Sunday night football, grab your partner and get out and see a few homes.

September Ada County Sales

Bill Williams (Coldwell Banker Tomlinson Group) — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 13:33:48 -0500

It appears that people are waiting to see what happens now, in our local real estate market. September sales set a new low for the year, even below January sales. Ada County Single Family sales were only 412 units for the month of September. That is well below last September's 710 units, and yes, even below January's 469. You have to go back to January of 2004 to find a lower monthly figure.

I believe there are a couple of things happening here. As I said, many are waiting to see what happens. Our economy is good. Interest rates are good as well, and there are plenty of programs available to people with good credit and income. There are even some 100% programs still available. But we're still seeing sellers with too high expectations, and buyers wanting to lowball below where the sellers are willing to go.

The active listings number continues to slowly shrink, down to 4604 currently. Pendings show 532, which is about where we were last month. Some of the overbuilt supply is going away, but there are some hurting builders out there. Evidence for that is the huge reductions some have taken to get out from under long held inventory. Another sign is the increase in "Zero Sale Price" records in the MLS database (some builders don't want to reveal how low they had to go on some houses).

People who "have to" sell are getting it done, albeit at prices lower than they would ideally have liked. Those who don't are beginning to take their homes off the market. This might be a great time for savvy buyers, with plenty of inventory still to choose from, good interest rates, and motivated sellers. Some of the deals I've seen on new homes look pretty fine to me. A few years from now, those buyers might look pretty smart.

August Ada County Sales

Bill Williams (Coldwell Banker Tomlinson Group) — Tue, 11 Sep 2007 17:53:29 -0500

The problem in the mortgage market in the early part of August is reflected in the latest sales figures for Ada County Real Estate. As you might remember, at the beginning of the month a couple of large lenders abruptly closed their doors, leaving many borrowers stranded without funding. Not all of those deals were saved, apparently. Sales of Single Family Homes (not counting acreage, townhomes, mobiles, or condos) at 656 units were a bit below July's weak 667 number, continuing the trend we've watched since April. This makes March our high month of the year, which is very unusual.

Another sign that the mortgage problems affected our market is in the "Pending" number, which right now stands at only 557. This is the lowest number I've seen all year, and in March it was running well over 800. It indicates that we're getting fewer homes under contract now so the closed figures for the rest of the year will continue to decline. Some of that is seasonal of course, but after the high hopes of the spring, many sellers are feeling let down in this market.

There are still too many homes on the market, with 4764 active listings in Ada this morning. That is down slightly from over 4850 a week or so ago. Our market would look a lot better if the folks who are not serious about selling would take their signs down. There are still too many homes priced well over what the market is paying right now. Buyers have a lot of great real estate to choose from now, so there is no reason to be holding on to last summer's expectations.

For buyers, this is a great market. There is plenty of possibilities to choose from, in all price ranges, and new construction homes with plenty of upgrades are available at prices that seem very reasonable to me. For sellers, all I can suggest is that you pay attention to your agent, and to the statistics and figures he has for you. Get your property in shape before you list it, price it right, be willing to listen to real buyers and negotiate any offers. Homes are selling. Concentrate on your goal, not on the last possible dollar. I've seen offers refused in this market that were 97% of asking price. Are they really for sale? They could be moved by now, which was the goal, wasn't it? Trust your agent, not your friends and realtives.

What is "normal"?

Bill Williams (Coldwell Banker Tomlinson Group) — Wed, 29 Aug 2007 17:16:01 -0500

I had an out of state resident contact me by email the other day about the state of the Idaho real estate market, and in particular, the market around here in Meridian and Boise. They had two questions for me, one, how are sales? And two, when will the market get "back to normal"?

The first question is fairly easy to answer. Homes are still selling, but the number of buyers in the market right now is not what we've seen in the past two years. Price is particularly important, with condition a close second. There are a very large number of homes on the market. It's a few days from the end of the month, so I haven't really run all the numbers yet, but today we have 4830 single family homes (no condos or townhomes) on the market, and only 620 pending contracts. The most actives I've noticed this month is 4877, so we're still near the top for listings. That's the lowest pending number I've seen all summer though. It seems a bit early in the year for that number to be dropping, but the tighter mortgage market appears to have slowed things down alot.

The second question is honestly too hard to answer, and it is also very personal. I do not have a crystal ball. Anyone who tells you what the market is going to be next season or next year has a 50-50 chance of getting it right... Many in the business thought at the beginning of this year that we would have a slow start, but that the market would be better in the second half. That hasn't happened. Our Ada County market isn't as troubled as many other areas in the country, but it will be a long time before it gets onto an upswing again (and aren't upswings what folks mean when they say "normal"). Real Estate is cyclical. We've just come through a time that favored the sellers and owners. The market is now correcting, and it favors the buyers now. One thing that might help the market look not so bad would be for all the folks who don't really have to sell their homes to take their homes off the market (not transferring out of town, or having family or financial issues). There are still a large number of people with overpriced properties on the market, or who won't take offers they feel are "below the real value of my home". Market prices (the only true indication of monetary value) are set by the available ready-willing-and able buyers who make and follow through on real offers, to sellers who have to or REALLY want to sell their homes right now. Real estate agents don't set prices, nor do appraisers... only buyers and sellers. Real buyers and sellers are making deals every day. Everyone else is just complaining about it. When most of the people get their heads around that idea, then the market will "get back to normal".

Just for visuals, here is a chart that shows the Ada County Single Family Units Sold by month, going back to January 2001. You can see the usual shape of our market for each year, with the low always in January (fewer contracts written in December) and the peak usually during the summer months. You can see how out of balance we got in 2005, and how 2006 was almost an echo. You can also see how many of us were fooled at the beginning of this year, when the market seemed to start out normally. But with a peak in March and declining sales since, you can see what I mean when I say our market got way out of balance and now the excesses have to be worked out. I'll update the chart after the month is out, but that last line is August 2007 and as of today we only have 576 units closed, with 2 business days left.