Jonathan's Phoenix Arizona Real Estate Blog

Have We Disappeared? No Way ... Come Visit Us!

Jonathan Dalton (RE/MAX Desert Showcase) — Wed, 22 Aug 2007 12:59:28 -0500

As you watch Tobey and I fall further down the local standings here at Active Rain, the natural question is whether we have disappeared from the real estate scene. The answer is a resounding NO!

We've been writing our own blog for the past year-plus, first in RealTown Communities and now on our own server. And since the start of the year, I've been writing almost exclusively on the Dalton's Arizona Homes Blog.

I'll try and excerpt an article here once in a while (then watch people read the full article on my server before coming back here to comment and pick up 25 points) but the effort of keeping two separate blogs full with unique content is just too much.

So if you're looking for the very latest in real estate commentary on the Phoenix real estate market and other pressing issues in the real estate industry, come see us at http://www.daltonsazhomes.com/blog.

I can't award you any points but I can tell you it'll be worth your while.

What have we taught our clients?

Jonathan Dalton (RE/MAX Desert Showcase) — Thu, 09 Aug 2007 11:31:27 -0500

Here’s one of the dirty little secrets of Real Estate 2.0. In many ways, we’ve done a terrible job of taking clients along for the ride.

Buyers have adapted to the changes as technology has simplified their end of the bargain. They can search for homes whenever they choose just by opening a web browser. But for most sellers, it seems real estate technology is an excuse not to work hard on a sale.

So what have we taught our clients, particularly our sellers? Consider this a Realtor’s list of sins, al chait shechatanu levanecha …

We have taught our clients that open houses matter, that open houses sell homes, when in reality 99% of all open houses are staged by agents looking either to pick up some buyers or some neighborhood listings. And we predicate this myth with “I just sold a house at an open house a couple of weeks ago.” Sure you did.

We have taught our clients that extra frills such as property books inside the home will be the deciding factor in selling a home. Property books, with a copy of the Sellers Property Disclosure Statement and information on local schools, can be invaluable. But you have to get buyers in the door first, and in focusing on the in-house extras many agents skip past how they’ll get buyers into the home in the first place.

FOR THE FULL ARTICLE, PLEASE VISIT DALTON'S ARIZONA HOMES BLOG

Real Estate Blogs' Fascination with Redfin

Jonathan Dalton (RE/MAX Desert Showcase) — Thu, 19 Jul 2007 15:03:09 -0500

Sixteen years ago this fall, I was at Sun Devil Stadium when Arizona State’s football team beat the University of Arizona for the first time in nine years. Students (and alumni, such as myself) stormed the field.

After wandering aimlessly, I went over to the stands in front of the band and had a friend lift me to the top rung of the bleachers’ guardrail. There, looking out upon hundreds of people on the field, I took my free gold pom-pom provided at the gate, waved it three times and watched as everyone erupted in an A-S-U cheer. It was pretty cool, watching the reaction to a random act in front of the band and feeling a sense of power because of it.

Redfin’s much the same way. Glenn says something or the company issues a press release and the real estate blogs jump too, reporting whatever happened with varying degrees of cynicism or admiration, depending on one’s point of view. Sometimes it’s tempting to think we, the real estate blogging community, aid Redfin’s struggle for existence in that all that we right adds to the company’s public relations monster.

Why do we as a group spend so much time writing about Redfin? Maybe it’s an effort to reverse the spin and present the truth to those willing to look at the company with a critical eye.

Make no mistake. Despite the hype, Redfin is struggling by nearly any measure. For all the bold talk of expansion into additional markets, progress has been extremely slow. Greg compared the total sales for Redfin to those of local real estate god Russell Shaw. It’s no contest. True, Russell has been doing this longer than Redfin but he also hasn’t had the benefit of $20 million in venture capital (though his ever-present face on my television makes me think he does have a printing press stowed away.)

FOR THE FULL ARTICLE, PLEASE VISIT DALTON'S ARIZONA HOMES BLOG

Phoenix Real Estate Inventory through June 18

Jonathan Dalton (RE/MAX Desert Showcase) — Mon, 18 Jun 2007 16:09:01 -0500

Sales dipped slightly and inventory rose by a net of approximately 200 homes, leading to a slightly higher absorption rate for the preceeding 30 days.

Keep in mind these numbers only reflect single-family detached inventory and sales in the resale market - nothing from the builders is included, primarily because those numbers aren’t readily available. But builders remain the largest “x” factor in the Phoenix real estate market.

In discussing my theory on the builders with a formal builder - that either they’re too far in to stop or that they may know something the rest of us don’t - he suggested the builders aren’t concerned with current market conditions because they are not only willing but also able to drop their prices as far as necessary to clear our inventory, an option your average resale buyer doesn’t have.

CITY	SOLD 5/18/07-6/18/07	ACTIVE 6/18	Absorption Rateas of 6/18/07	Change	Buyer/Seller
Ahwatukee	11	103	9.36	0.53	Buyer
Anthem	40	746	18.65	0.45	Buyer
Avondale	83	1,074	12.94	0.70	Buyer
Buckeye	57	1,018	17.86	-0.65	Buyer
Carefree	9	113	12.56	-9.04	Buyer
Cave Creek	39	611	15.67	2.05	Buyer
Chandler	321	2,331	7.26	-0.66	Buyer
Desert Hills	18	180	10.00	-0.53	Buyer
El Mirage	42	475	11.31	0.26	Buyer
Fountain Hills	32	414	12.94	0.12	Buyer
Gilbert	293	2,508	8.56	0.49	Buyer
Glendale	228	2,321	10.18	1.08	Buyer
Goodyear	93	1,258	13.53	-0.96	Buyer
Laveen	41	518	12.63	-1.69	Buyer
Litchfield Park	35	518	14.80	0.99	Buyer
Maricopa	65	958	14.74	-0.23	Buyer
Mesa	409	3,342	8.17	0.77	Buyer
Paradise Valley	29	301	10.38	1.44	Buyer
Peoria	177	2,006	11.33	-0.25	Buyer
Phoenix	986	9,209	9.34	0.12	Buyer
Queen Creek	140	1,992	14.23	-1.08	Buyer
Scottsdale	364	3,440	9.45	0.49	Buyer
Sun City	72	502	6.97	0.01	Buyer
Sun City West	63	444	7.05	0.59	Buyer
Surprise	215	2,159	10.04	-0.62	Buyer
Tempe	111	500	4.50	-0.08	Seller
Tolleson	31	469	15.13	-1.05	Buyer
Waddell	10	92	9.20	0.10	Buyer
TOTAL	3,903	38,422	9.78	0.23	Buyer

Data provided by ARMLS. Data deemed reliable but not guaranteed

Technorati tags: phoenix arizona, phoenix arizona real estate, real estate, market statistics, absorption rate

Eagle Heights - New Subdivision in Peoria Arizona

Jonathan Dalton (RE/MAX Desert Showcase) — Mon, 18 Jun 2007 16:07:39 -0500

Pre-sale has begun at the Reserve at Eagle Heights, a new subdivision slated for the southwest corner of 75th Avenue and Deer Valley Road in Peoria.

According to an article last year in the Arizona Republic’s Glendale section, Eagle Heights represents the last of the large undeveloped parcels that make up the area of Glendale and Peoria known as Arrowhead Ranch.

Scottsdale-based Western Pacific Properties is looking to make a splash akin to the area’s higher-end subdivisions such as Top of the Ranch and Tuscany Shores with the 84-home Eagle Heights development.

Unlike Top of the Ranch, the topography at Eagle Heights is flat; the mountain views are a couple of miles in the distance rather than a few feet beyond your back fence. But a planned lake on the development’s western edge, inside the usually dry Skunk Creek bed, will add the lure of waterfront lots a la Tuscany.

All of the 84 homes will be single-story and will have Spanish architecture in its three floor plans. Each floor plan features three separate elevations, giving prospective buyers 12 homes from which to choose. Square footage will range from 2,700 to 3,700 square feet and the lots will be significantly larger than those in nearby Fletcher Heights, hovering close to the 1/4-acre mark.

Base prices for homes in Eagle Heights start in the high $780s and range into the low $800s. And the builder is asking for a $25,000 earnest deposit - if you use the builders’ preferred lender.

The models have not yet been completed, though one was in the drywall phase as of a week ago, so the sales trailer is the first and only stop.

For more information on Eagle Heights, call or e-mail me and I can send you floor plans and the initial price sheet. And if you’re thinking of visiting the Reserve at Eagle Heights or any other new build in the West Valley, I highly encourage you to contact a real estate professional to accompany you on your initial visit … even if it’s not me.

New build contracts generally are weighted heavily in the builders’ favor and it is to your benefit to have someone working in your best interest by your side not only when you’re writing your contract but when you’re visiting the design center.

Unless you bring your agent with you on your first visit, you will not have independent representation on your home purchase. And there is NO out-of-pocket cost to you for using a buyers’ agent at a new build community.

Redfin's Summer Vacation

Jonathan Dalton (RE/MAX Desert Showcase) — Mon, 18 Jun 2007 13:41:24 -0500

Last Friday, Redfin announced it was taking a two-week break from accepting new listings. According to Glenn's post on the company blog, this was done in part because many Redfin agents had been working long hours for weeks on end without any time off. In other words, they were working as real estate professionals.

My first reaction was that it seemed odd to cite one of the basics of the real estate profession as a reason not to accept new listings. But as I thought about it a little more, things seemed to become more clear.

First, if a company is experiencing higher-than-normal demand, it would seem logical to staff to meet that demand. If the company doesn't increase staff, that normally would indicate the demand is expected to be only a short-term phenomenon. Or that the demand doesn't exist.

Second, no one takes two weeks off and still expects prospective clients to be waiting when they return. Most people don't have sufficient patience to wait any more than an hour for a return phone call (and they probably shouldn't have to wait that long, to be honest). Expecting them to wait two weeks at the height of the summer to list their homes is more than a little optimistic.

Third, why would a company continue to plan expansion when they can't manage the business they already have?

In the comments below Redfin's posts, Glenn said it wasn't "good news" they had to do this. I only can imagine.

Redfin's ideas clearly have some resonance with the general public, as evidenced by those defending Redfin on my blog and theirs - even if the defense has little to do with the announcement. One reader even went so far as to imply Redfin is doing this so as not to add to the inventory in the areas they serve. Um, sure.

At some point, though, critical questions should be asked ... if not by the VC folks throwing cash Redfin's way then at least by the public. 60 Minutes' fawning advertisement did nothing to answer what is so unique about flat-rate listings and rebates to buyers (the short answer: nothing. One even posted a comment to Redfin's original post.)

Imagine going to the supermarket and seeing a sign telling you no new customers were allowed for two weeks in the interest of providing excellent service to those inside the store. Would you wait outside for two weeks to buy your groceries? Or would you go to one of the dozens of other stores capable of providing excellent customer service at higher capacity?

Seems like a simple choice to me.

Zillow and Diz-intermediation

Jonathan Dalton (RE/MAX Desert Showcase) — Thu, 07 Jun 2007 13:59:07 -0500

Yesterday I received an e-mail which revealed both the potential and the pitfalls of purchasing real estate online. Here was the e-mail in full, sent by a Zillow user regarding one of my Phoenix homes for sale:

my offer 247k

Putting aside the fact this came without a name, with only an e-mail address, there are a number of missing pieces connected with this “offer.”

Closing date
Financing details, including pre-approval
Inclusion of any personal property
Who would pay for the appraisal, any discount points and the ALTA title policy
Does the buyer want a home warranty? Who will pay for it?
Escrow company
Response period for the offer
Inspection period deadlines and negotiation of repairs
Inclusion of Sellers Property Disclosures and CLUE reports
Inclusion of any other reports the buyer may need to determine the suitability of this particular property
Buyer contingencies to allow for offer cancellation

That’s the short list off the top of my head. And this is one of the areas in which the notion of disintermediation falls flat. A purchase contract can be written on a cocktail napkin. It even can be completed and enforced based on e-mail. In Arizona, even this three-word e-mail constitutes an offer that must be presented.

But without the above details, the offer is virtually useless … and legally dangerous.

TO READ THE FULL ARTICLE, PLEASE VISIT DALTON'S ARIZONA HOMES BLOG

A Practical View of Real Estate Licensing

Jonathan Dalton (RE/MAX Desert Showcase) — Tue, 05 Jun 2007 14:23:21 -0500

Much has been said about the realities of real estate licensing - the relatively low hurdles involved and the relative paucity of knowledge that one possesses when they’ve completed real estate school and/or passed the state exam.

(Note: paucity is only a $2.50 word. And never fear. Pictures are coming.)

Once you leave the testing facility, select a broker and file your paperwork with the state of Arizona, you’re basically here:

Someone likely will tell you to select a farm area in which to specialize, which represents only the smallest slice of the overall real estate market. With a little luck, you can walk right into those homes and maybe even manage a sale or two. Of course, in doing so, you likely are ignoring a larger reality …

This is the true road to success. A slow, steady climb where you continue expanding your real estate knowledge base as well as your selling skills. No one forces you to begin this climb. And on the way up it’s unbelievably easy to give in to that little voice telling you that you can quit, that no one will notice if you decide to go back down the hill and find the path of least resistance.

Should you decide to invest the time and the money and the effort and the gray matter to learn what real estate really is about, to learn the nuances of the contract and to learn the inventory and to develop some semblance of people skills, you’ll find a new world has been opened to you …

(Not so coincidentally, that’s a portion of Arrowhead Ranch … one of my main farm areas.)

No one hands this to you. There’s no elevator. Not even a friendly passing burro. With luck, you’ll have a broker or peer or spouse who will negate the quitters’ call and stay by your side until you’ve reached this point. You can do it solo, naturally. Many agents do so every day, walking into 100%, split-free brokerages and managing to survive without any training or assistance. But a little help definitely increases the odds in your favor.

Yes, ladies and gentlemen, I’m a fat guy. I wish I cut as lovely a figure as the Housechick when she’s demolishing stuff, but I’m nowhere close. One anonymous mouse who lurks around the Seattle-area blogs suggested I have my thyroid checked. No need. I earned the gut, to be perfectly honest. Fourteen-hour days and fast-food lunches between appointments will do it to you every time.

And still, there I was, on top of the mountain last night at sunset. All it took was a little perseverance and a supportive voice or two.

Those who succeed in this business are the ones who take the long and winding road to success. The fast-buck artists and “everything I needed to learn about real estate I learned in kindergarten” folks are the ones at the bottom, looking for the escalator.

P.S. To any future thyroid queries, please let me know if you know any Yiddish. If not, I have a few phrases I can teach you.

Technorati Tags: Phoenix real estate, Phoenix Arizona real estate, real estate marketing

Local Newspaper Posts Free Ads

Jonathan Dalton (RE/MAX Desert Showcase) — Sat, 02 Jun 2007 11:00:17 -0500

The mainstream media’s unpaid advertisements for various real estate models continued today when the Arizona Republic ran an article … wait, an article Special to the Republic … on a Mesa company offering Internet listings to unrepresented sellers.

This isn’t going to be a standard re-hash of the usual Realtor arguments in favor of using a real estate professional to market your home versus going it alone. Rather, I thought it might be worth looking at the company the Republic felt was worth its own story.

We can find the first misstatement of fact on the company’s banner: #1 Real Estate Website in Phoenix, ranked by Alexa.com. Hmmm. According to Alexa’s traffic rankings, the company’s site ranks 4,795,956th in traffic:

Dalton’s Arizona Homes, meanwhile, ranks 438,279th:

Maybe the problem is that I live in Glendale, not Phoenix. I’ll leave that distinction to the Arizona Department of Real Estate, which is charged with monitoring the accuracy of advertising claims.

FOR THE FULL ARTICLE, PLEASE VISIT DALTON'S ARIZONA HOMES BLOG

Finding Your Trulia Voice

Jonathan Dalton (RE/MAX Desert Showcase) — Thu, 31 May 2007 21:32:44 -0500

If you've got a profile on Trulia and have been answering questions in the Trulia voices section, this probably will look more than a little familiar. Hopefully ... just hopefully ... your responses don't resemble this shining example ...

Dear Mr. North Dakota homeseller,

First of all, thanks for taking the time to write in. I know you probably were hoping to hear from an agent in your area. I mean, I couldn’t find the town you’re talking about with a flashlight and a compass even if you dropped me in downtown. Is it near Wahpeton High?

To be honest, you receiving an answer from a qualified agent is less important than my quest to lead Trulia Voices in “most first answers.” I’m like what the UPI guys used to say about the AP, back when there was a UPI … “AP’s motto: get it first, get it fast, get it corrected.”

But I digress.

I see you’re asking why your home hasn’t sold. Since you have it listed currently, the person you should be asking is your agent. I’m really not supposed to get in the middle. But this is on the Internet so rules don’t really matter do they?

Clearly the problem is with your living room. If you have a living room. I can’t be certain. I’ve never seen your house. Heck, I’ve never seen your city. But that’s not important right now.

I also think there’s a problem with your price, at least according to what I’m seeing on Zillow. (By the way, if you’re home is one of the unzillowables, please blink twice.)

What I would do if I were you is demand your agent spend as much money as possible advertising in homes magazines. This really doesn’t work, but that’s not important. It’s not my money I’m trying to spend. I’m just trying to answer quick and make sure everyone knows I’m a national expert, not just your area specialist. That’s very important. I think.

If that doesn’t work, make sure to give me a call so I can refer you back to someone else in your city. Again, this really isn’t going to benefit you all that much but this way I can ask for a nifty referral fee for all the hard work I’ve put into this answer.

Oh, and if nothing else works, make sure the lights are on when someone comes to look. And bake some cookies. Maybe even send some to my office. I like cookies.

Well, thanks again for the e-mail. Best of luck with that sale. I have to run and see how far I moved on the scoreboard with this first answer.

See ya!

The point? Put a scoreboard on something and it's amazing how quickly people will adapt and do whatever they must to see their name rise on that scoreboard. Even if it involves giving generic answers to questions about real estate markets halfway across the country.

Maybe ... just maybe ... a consumer looking for agents online might dig one click deeper and wonder why it is someone in Arizona feels compelled to explain why homes in Maine are slow to sell. Or vice versa.

Do the right thing. Answer questions about your market. Leave the local experts to handle their own. Everyone will look much better for the effort.

Technorati Tags: Trulia, real estate marketing, real estate technology

Tennessee Association earns Pyrrhic victory

Jonathan Dalton (RE/MAX Desert Showcase) — Thu, 31 May 2007 17:59:55 -0500

Greg was the first to post the news, courtesy of the Nashville Tennesean:

Gov. Phil Bredesen has signed a bill reinstating a ban on cash rebates for home sales and other real estate transactions, despite opposition from consumer advocates and federal antitrust officials.

The good news is somewhere there’s a lawyer or two who will make some money when this new law is challenged in court. And it will be. Make no mistake.

Regardless of whether the law stands, it’s a Pyrrhic victory at best. Victory over those dastardly companies with alternate business models will come with a steep price in public relations.

I’m not a purveyor of the rebate model but I’m also not an opponent. I’m confident enough in the service I provide that I don’t feel I need to pay my clients to work with me. And so I do not and have not viewed real estate models based on a rebate as a threat.

Even if they were, however, the solution isn’t legislation. If the whims of the market are such that such a model were to become dominant, I would have the choice either to adapt or change careers. So be it. By working to ban the rebate model, all the good folks at the Tennessee Association of REALTORS has done is give that particular more credence and legitimacy than it may deserve.

Rebate models only are profitable when business is performed in bulk because of the considerable overhead involved in real estate. Rare is the month where another check is not being sent somewhere to cover board dues, MLS access, website access, marketing or whatever else may arise.

We’re not in a market where bulk exists. Even if we were, if the best response TAR can come up with is to attempt to eliminate its competition through legislation, the group clearly is in dire straits.

Survive or fail on the service you provide. Don’t make yourselves look foolish asking for government protection of your business.

More reading:

DOJ + Protectionism = More Bad Publicity for Realtors

Dancing on the Edge

Jonathan Dalton (RE/MAX Desert Showcase) — Wed, 30 May 2007 19:10:30 -0500

A question from Trulia Voices popped up in my RSS reader this afternoon, a seller asking for ideas on why a home's still on the market after a year, and I discovered this at the top of one of the agents' replies:

"If I were your agent you would know why your home is not selling."

Am I the only one who finds this statement problematic? It's also probably all too common, as I've heard from sellers in the past (the ever popular, "I can't believe this hasn't sold yet! I would think it would be long gone ...") but should statements such as this ever be made?

After spending several frustrating minutes poring through the COE, I can't find anything that prohibits such things. Yet I'm hard pressed to believe statements akin to "dump that bonehead and list with me" are permissible.

Redfin: Hubris Reaching New Heights

Jonathan Dalton (RE/MAX Desert Showcase) — Tue, 29 May 2007 18:24:07 -0500

Redfin's hubris reached a new level yesterday, claiming one of Century 21's new ads targeted the Seattle-based internet real estate company directly.

Oddly enough, I don't hear the word "Redfin" at any point in the ad. I suppose it could happen if you played the ad backward, but I highly doubt that as well.

Redfin's primary strength has been an inscrutable sense for public relations. But this one's such a severe stretch, I'll be amazed if Glenn doesn't end up on the 15-day disabled list with a torn hamstring.

There are many companies who rely heavily on the Internet for their business. There are many agents, including some who are dodging the urge to purchase a gold coat, who do the same. What separates these companies and agents from Redfin, aside from the chutzpah to keep asking for venture capital? We show properties to our clients. And we don't collect an upfront, four-figure fee for taking a listing (or, more correctly, for entering a listing in the MLS after the client completes the paperwork themselves.)

Century 21's new ads are varied but the message has little to do with what's being said. It is all about the gold coats. People recognize the coats. Think it's a silly notion? Think about Jack-in-the-Box. Not only was "Jack Back" but Jack was everywhere. The best marketing icons live on long after someone had the silly idea to retire them.

(Want further evidence of the power of marketing? Finish this sentence: "two all beef patties, special sauce, lettuce, cheese ...")

Redfin's post seemed reminiscent of a B-list celebrity appearing on the Surreal Life or other such shows. The 15 minutes (13 minutes in Redfin's case, courtesy of 60 Minutes) is over ... the quest to squeeze another couple of minutes' notice out of an apathetic public continues.

Truth About the Phoenix Real Estate Market

Jonathan Dalton (RE/MAX Desert Showcase) — Tue, 29 May 2007 16:21:39 -0500

I’d love to say that I’m perfect. And while my wife will be the first to disabuse me of that notion, I’m also self-aware enough to understand minor errors do occur from time to time:

1) In an effort to make sure something is in the MLS when a listing goes active, I usually insert photos I’ve taken myself. And then I switch them out just as soon as I get the photos from the professionals I hire to shoot my virtual tours. Once in a while, though, the switch doesn’t take place.

2) I advertise my listings on about a dozen different sites. When there’s a price change, one site usually manages to slip through the cracks. And it’s usually a different one every, single time.

3) Typos happen. Which is really annoying for a journalism major, but they happen.

What’s the point of this mea culpa? That even though minor hiccups may take place in the larger marketing effort, none truly are the cause of a home not selling. One of the major advantages of advertising a property in a dozen or so sites is the widespread exposure it may receive. One typo on one site likely isn’t going to sink a deal, though I do work to eradicate these errors as soon as they’re found.

Here’s the real reason why homes are staying on the market longer right now. Take a look at the single-family detached sales in Maricopa County since last July. All of these points represent a 30-day rolling curve - the number of sales in the preceding 30 days. I think the trend is fairly easy to discern:

FOR THE FULL ARTICLE, INCLUDING CONTINUED ANALYSIS, PLEASE VISIT DALTON'S ARIZONA HOMES BLOG

Phoenix MLS Days on Market Survey

Jonathan Dalton (RE/MAX Desert Showcase) — Sat, 26 May 2007 13:43:13 -0500

While suffering during the 165-minute fiasco that is Pirates of the Carribean: At World’s End (which frighteningly enough had an ending that could indicate yet another chapter in a dying franchise), I received a most interesting e-mail.

The President of the Arizona Regional MLS, Abe Schwarz, has requested that I send a blast email to Phoenix Association members to survey each of you on your feelings about the Days on Market information in the MLS.

One of the ideas floated in the e-mail was removing days on market from the Ageny Property Report, instead having the information readily available on an Archive or other some such report. Not a bad idea, to my mind - not as good as eliminating days on market altogether, but not bad.

There was a free-form section at the bottom and I kept my remarks purposefully brief. But the gist of my complaint with days on market boil down to two basic points:

1) The days on market do not constitute a material fact about the house. Aside from any issues about the home, they also could be indicative of the marketing, the agent’s effort to sell, pricing and/or the sellers’ willingness to negotiate. None deal with the house itself.

2) Days on market is an arbitrary figure that carries no requirement of disclosure. If a home is being sold by an unrepresented seller, the seller isn’t required to discuss how long they have had the home on the market. If that same home is eventually listed with a real estate agent, days on market will reflect only Days on the MLS - not the time frame in which the seller tried to sell the home on their own.

FOR THE FULL ARTICLE, PLEASE VISIT DALTON'S PHOENIX ARIZONA HOMES BLOG

Disconnect between the NAR and Realtors

Jonathan Dalton (RE/MAX Desert Showcase) — Thu, 24 May 2007 16:10:13 -0500

This just in courtesy of Inman PM:

"Realtor-backed legislation that would ban cash rebates to consumers in real estate transactions awaits the governor's signature in Tennessee. The U.S. Department of Justice opposes the bill, which it alleges "would impede real estate brokers from competing on price and force Tennesseans to pay more in real estate commissions." Also, the legislation would reverse a decision earlier this month by the Tennessee Real Estate Commission, a regulatory agency, to repeal a statewide ban on real estate cash rebates."

DOJ opposes a bill that would eliminate the rebate business model (sorry Realtor Genius, the term's not dead yet - not until you suggest an alternative) from the real estate industry. To quote the Colonel, "You think so, Doctor?"

Perhaps NAR and its state chapters should spend more time listening to the conversations taking place on the real estate blogs across the country. Maybe the views expressed on the blogs and elsewhere should be viewed less as the opinions of outliers and more as a legitimate voice for the agent population. Statistically, members of the real estate blogging community are but a small percentage of NAR's rolls. Then again, so is membership on the local Realtor board.

In the face of Redfin's 13-minute commercial courtesy of 60 Minutes, and in light of the presence of limited-service and rebate models throughout the real estate industry, many agent have expressed that these models don't pose a severe threat to their business. Many, many of us feel we don't have to compete on price to be hired by a buyer or a seller - our track records and our proven level of service will carry the day in the end.

Apparently, NAR and the state associations have no such confidence in most of its members. If they did, they would not continue to support anti-competitive legislation that will have no effect except to attract the further attention of the Department of Justice and provide additional ammunition to an REBC (Real Estate Bubble Contingent) which already has enough ammo to obliterate a small country.

Meanwhile, those of us practicing this business on a daily basis and airing our viewpoints in the wider world of the Internet are left to try and explain away the moronic actions of NAR and the state associations. You can't on one hand argue that a rebate market is not viable and then try to eliminate it on the other. If it's not viewed as a threat, leave it alone. And if nothing else, stop taking steps that place a model in which you don't believe in the limelight.

(That last statement has been thrown at many of us who discuss Redfin or Zillow. I've never discussed either out of fear. Call it morbid curiosity for one, and a feeling-out process on the other.)

Most actions by the NAR appear to be designed to maintain a status quo that has long since passed. The days of brokerages being able to contain their information in an effort to generate the most possible leads and limit the amount of competition are long gone.

The sooner NAR comes to grips with this reality and stops sponsoring legislation that only can make all of us in the industry look like protectionist buffoons, the better.

Real Estate Licensing Realities

Jonathan Dalton (RE/MAX Desert Showcase) — Thu, 24 May 2007 12:55:25 -0500

One of the recurring criticisms of the real estate industry is the fairly minimal standards required to obtain a real estate license. In Arizona, a prospective agent need only complete 90 hours of classroom instruction, select a broker, pay the licensing fee and they’re off and running.

Not that they likely will know much about real estate sales, mind you. The Arizona Real Estate exam is filled with a variety of virtually valueless information. I suppose there may be a need someday for me to remember where the property line ends on a non-navigable waterway versus a navigable waterway, but that scenario probably won’t arise nearly as often as trying to convince a buyers’ agent why the sales price on the LSR matters.

Outside of five digits - 43,560 - the number of square feet in an acre, the vast majority of information contained within the licensing exam likely will never be used.

So why does the licensing process even exist? Greg Swann of the Bloodhound Blog raised this question in last week’s Arizona Republic.

“The licensing requirement for real estate agents is a bad joke. Would-be licensees are required to take 90 hours of classroom instruction. There are real estate schools that will permit you to fulfill this obligation in ten consecutive days. The course material consists of tips and tricks for taking the state test, and the state test has almost nothing to do with succeeding — or even surviving — as a real estate agent.

How do we know this? Because more than 90% of new licensees do not renew their licenses. They fail within the first two years in business. Successful navigation of the licensing process is useless as an indicator of success as a real estate agent.

The state’s licensing procedure actually serves to deceive consumers. The implication is that a licensed practitioner is competent. Far too often, this is untrue.”

To some degree, Greg is correct. Having once upon a time obtained a Series 7 license to sell securities, the real estate exam is laughable in comparison. It’s less a test of knowledge than an IQ test consisting of oddly worded, convoluted, tricked-up questions. Passing the test does not indicate someone is qualified to handle a real estate transaction; it means only that they weren’t sufficiently befuddled by the exam.

FOR THE FULL ARTICLE, PLEASE VISIT DALTON'S ARIZONA HOMES BLOG

Phoenix Arizona Real Estate Inventory as of May 21, 2007

Jonathan Dalton (RE/MAX Desert Showcase) — Tue, 22 May 2007 18:28:16 -0500

"Welcome to a new year at Hogwarts! Before we begin our banquet, I woud like to say a few words. And here they are: Nitwit! Blubber! Oddment! Tweak!"

- Albus Dumbledore, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone

This is what came to mind as I debated what to say about this week's market update. Another net gain of about 200 homes, sales still slow and likely slower than many of us anticipated. In some ways, writing this update is like being a beat writer for the Arizona Cardinals. There are only so many synonyms for "losing" just as there are only so many synonyms with "slow." And so I'll follow a different tack and invite everyone to check out my newly redesigned primary site. As I've mentioned in the past, buyers are searching online for homes, not agents. On Dalton's Arizona Homes, they won't have to look far. As for this week's absorption rate, I'll say these few words: Nitwit. Blubber. Oddment. Tweak.

CITY	SOLD 4/21/2007-5/21/2007	ACTIVE 5/21	Absorption Rateas of 5/21/07	Change	Buyer/Seller
Ahwatukee	13	101	7.77	1.05	Buyer
Anthem	42	725	17.26	3.42	Buyer
Avondale	97	1,035	10.67	-0.05	Buyer
Buckeye	58	949	16.36	0.38	Buyer
Carefree	7	118	16.86	3.41	Buyer
Cave Creek	32	609	19.03	0.52	Buyer
Chandler	264	2,289	8.67	1.18	Buyer
Desert Hills	12	168	14.00	-1.55	Buyer
El Mirage	43	467	10.86	-0.31	Buyer
Fountain Hills	42	438	10.43	0.59	Buyer
Gilbert	270	2,491	9.23	0.07	Buyer
Glendale	259	2,223	8.58	0.05	Buyer
Goodyear	85	1,253	14.74	-0.14	Buyer
Laveen	28	511	18.25	0.93	Buyer
Litchfield Park	25	513	20.52	0.00	Buyer
Maricopa	45	927	20,60	2.14	Buyer
Mesa	419	3,309	7.90	-0.26	Buyer
Paradise Valley	27	308	11.41	0.62	Buyer
Peoria	194	1,984	10.23	0.05	Buyer
Phoenix	985	8,880	9.02	0.11	Buyer
Queen Creek	123	1,992	16.20	1.17	Buyer
Scottsdale	346	3,488	10.08	0.06	Buyer
Sun City	99	564	5.70	-0.12	Neutral
Sun City West	75	503	6.71	-0.57	Buyer
Surprise	186	2,209	11.88	0.27	Buyer
Tempe	99	491	4.96	-0.21	Seller
Tolleson	26	440	16.92	-0.32	Buyer
Waddell	9	94	10.44	-1.68	Buyer
TOTAL	3,867	37,998	9.82	0.15	Buyer

Data provided by ARMLS. Data deemed reliable but not guaranteed Technorati tags: phoenix arizona, phoenix arizona real estate, real estate, market statistics, absorption rate

Redfin - The Cure for Lazy Agents?

Jonathan Dalton (RE/MAX Desert Showcase) — Mon, 21 May 2007 15:48:40 -0500

I was checking some backlinks and ran across this comment on Redfin’s blog post about last week’s “60 Minutes” piece …

“I sincerely hope Redfin makes it to AZ. I’d love to see the starch taken out of the lazy Realtors who just list and dump it into MLS. Go gettem Redfin guys ‘n gal.”

Oddly enough, if the person writing the comment actually had looked at the Redfin site, they would have discovered that Redfin’s primary modus operandi is listing in the MLS. Redfin also will provide pricing guidance, a lockbox and an electronic color flier. If the owner wants actual fliers on paper, it’s on the sellers’ dime.

FOR THE FULL ARTICLE, PLEASE VISIT DALTON'S ARIZONA HOMES BLOG

Trulia Voices - Agents Jump in but Will the Public Follow?

Jonathan Dalton (RE/MAX Desert Showcase) — Sun, 20 May 2007 18:43:34 -0500

I added the Trulia Voices feed for questions about the Arizona Real Estate market to my Google RSS reader last week when the feature was introduced, primarily so I could jump in and answer questions as they were posted.

My thought, and presumably that of the folks at Trulia, is the Voices feature would serve as a sounding board for the buyers who visit Trulia and would like to learn more about a given area without having to contact an actual agent, losing anonymity and taking the risk of having to hear from this agent again in the future.

After a week, though, I’m still waiting to see whether the general public is going to jump in and start their own information gathering. Real estate agents have done so with gusto so far, which can be expected on any site where there’s a counter for how many questions a person asks or how many answers someone provides.

And the count for answers doesn’t stop with sheer volume - you also see how many times you provided the “best answer” in the estimation of the asker, how many times you provided the first answer and how many times you provided a useful answer.

FOR THE FULL ARTICLE PLEASE VISIT DALTON'S ARIZONA HOMES BLOG

Westbrook Village Homes for Sale - No Registration

Jonathan Dalton (RE/MAX Desert Showcase) — Wed, 16 May 2007 15:21:12 -0500

After a couple of weeks of experimenting, I now can announce that my Westbrook Village Real Estate website is the only site on the web featuring a property search specific to Westbrook Village with NO REGISTRATION REQUIRED.

The debate over whether to force prospective clients to register has raged on for several years now. Those in favor if registration believe that requiring prospects to provide an e-mail address and/or phone number helps sort out those buyers who truly are ready, willing and able to buy. Others, including myself, view the mandatory registration as a major turn-off when viewing a site. Why should I register to receive the information I can get somewhere else without the registration being required?

We're now the home to that "somewhere else." And I'm not particularly worried about the possibility of buyers looking at listings on my site and then contacting someone else when the time comes to make the purchase. Will it happen from time to time? Absolutely. But that's a chance I'm willing to take to provide a place where prospective buyers can find all the Westbrook Village homes for sale without registration.

Add the Westbrook Village real estate search with the remainder of the site, which I believe already is one of the most comprehensive sites on the Internet about Westbrook Village, and I believe we're offering a value statement that is hard to match.

For those who don't know, Westbrook Village is an active adult community in Peoria, Arizona with age limits beginning at 40 years of age and above. Westbrook boasts two championship golf courses, two full community centers and a community feel that's becoming increasingly difficult to find in the Valley these days.

Redfin - The Devil's In the Details

Jonathan Dalton (RE/MAX Desert Showcase) — Tue, 15 May 2007 16:51:21 -0500

Let's say the owner of a $400,000 home decides to list their home for sale with Redfin (not a possibility in Arizona as of yet, but local readers can substitute the flat-fee listing company of their choice for the example.) Under a 6% commission schedule, the total commission would be $24,000.

The advertised commission cost of a Redfin listing is $3,000. So the seller would be spending $21,000 less on their commission, right? Well, no.

The $3,000 isn't the full commission -- and Redfin knows this. Down in the Frequently Asked Commission is the disclaimer that Redfin recommends paying a 3% commission to the agent bringing a buyer to your home. So rather than a $3,000 commission, the seller actually would be paying $15,000 - the so-called savings are approximately $9,000.

A seller isn't required to pay 3% to a buyers' agent, of course. The seller can offer any amount they choose, all the way down to a single dollar, and still be listed in the MLS per the MLS' rules of cooperation. But the lower the amount offered, the less likely a home will be shown to perspective buyers.

Those damn greedy Realtors, you say. They won't show a home with less than a 3% co-broke? How dare they!

Except ...

Let's also look at a Redfin buyer (again, substitute any local buyer-brokerage utilizing a rebate model.) A Redfin buyer receives a rebate of two-thirds of the buyers' agent fee when they purchase a home. So by purchasing the home with a 2% co-broke rather than a 3% co-broke, the buyer is losing a portion of their own rebate - the rebate drops to $5,060 from $8,040 on a $400,000 home.

FOR THE FULL ARTICLE, PLEASE VISIT DALTON'S ARIZONA HOMES BLOG

Revisiting Redfin's So-Called Bill of Rights

Jonathan Dalton (RE/MAX Desert Showcase) — Fri, 11 May 2007 20:58:27 -0500

There are two old solutions to writers’ block known throughout the world of journalism to which I once belonged: writing a “three-dot bandit” column, a series of unrelated thoughts separated by ellipses, and revisiting a previously covered topic in the interest of updating your readers.

I’m shooting for the latter by revisiting Redfin’s so-called Consumer Bill of Rights.

Much was made of the company’s publicity stunt when it first took place; next-to-nothing has been written on the topic lately, primarily because the groundswell of support that Redfin (presumably) expected with its “with us or against us stunt” never materialized.

A whopping 11 agents and brokerages have signed on to the so-called Bill of Rights, which was less a manifesto designed to protect the real estate consumer than a carefully crafted validation of Redfin’s rebate-based service model.

In light of Sunday's 60 Minutes piece - shedding light on the real estate industry, if you believe the Inman news hype, or simply glorifying rebate-model proponents such as Redfin - in which Redfin's Glenn Kelman will be featured, the question becomes how much time is spent discussing industry reaction (or lack thereof) to the bill of rights publicity stunt. And if any, it will be even more interesting to hear Kelman explain the yawning of the REIC.

FOR THE FULL ARTICLE, PLEASE VISIT DALTON'S ARIZONA HOMES BLOG

Century 21 Leadrouter Goes Live

Jonathan Dalton (RE/MAX Desert Showcase) — Thu, 10 May 2007 13:30:50 -0500

Last month I wrote about Century 21 Leadrouter and how it serves to answer some questions regarding brokerages’ motivation for sending listings through larger listing aggregators such as Trulia and Google Base.

Over the last few weeks, however, the tangible benefit to the consumer became more and more apparent.

David Knox, one of the more entertaining real estate trainers around, likes to say that to succeed in real estate, you often don’t need to be the best. You simply need to be the one who is there. Leadrouter guarantees the listing agent will be there. Or, at worst, another agent should the listing agent be one of the hundreds of agents who choose not to answer their cell phones (another rant for another day.)

When someone asks for more information on a listing they see on Century 21.com, my company’s local site MovePhoenix.com or, by extension, on either Trulia or Google (both of which link back to the Century 21 listing page), the listing agent’s cell phone will ring. An automated service will provide them with the prospective buyers’ name, phone number and/or e-mail, depending on what they provided. In many cases, we’ll be able to reach the prospective buyer even before they shut down their web browser.

This should be powerful stuff to a seller, knowing questions about their property will be answered as they arise and that we’ll be in touch with those people most interested in their home. Rather than simply sending the marketing into the greater world of the Internet and waiting for e-mail questions, which rarely happen, we have a chance to be a little more proactive in selling our listings and qualifying prospective buyers.

At this stage, Century 21 Arizona Foothills is the only Century 21 franchise locally who will be using Leadrouter. The system went active yesterday and some calls already have come in (though not to me, oddly enough … with 19 listings, you’d think the odds would be more in my favor, but I digress.)

The added exposure of Leadrouter also places a premium on maximizing a listing’s potential on Century21.com … having as many photographs as possible handy, adding the virtual tours, creating slide shows. Anything and everything to attract a potential buyer.

Surviving a Real Estate Agent Tour

Jonathan Dalton (RE/MAX Desert Showcase) — Wed, 09 May 2007 17:32:58 -0500

Just sit right back and you’ll hear a tale, a tale of a fateful trip.

That started up in Glendale, with not a drink to sip.

Yes, that rhyme was terrible. But blame it on the general malaise caused by surviving a three-hour home tour this morning.

Home tours, to my mind, are the real estate agent equivalent to an Open House. The vast majority of agents on tour generally are there not because they have buyers and not because they want to see the available inventory but rather because the rules of the tour state they need to be present to have their listing included.

REAL ESTATE MARKETING - ACTION VS. THE APPEARANCE OF ACTION

I equate the average home tour with an Open House because the likelihood of a sale coming from either are remarkably slim.

With a traditional Open House, a qualified buyer needs to come across the house, stop the car, walk through the house, fall in love with the house and then write an offer - preferably before finding another house. That the one, best buyer will be driving past the one, right home for them during a 3-hour window on a Sunday afternoon is somewhere just past unlikely.

Agent tours are much the same. The odds of a property being on the market but unseen by the agent who has a client looking for just that home are slim. With the wide variety of avenues by which homes can be viewed, odds are either the buyer herself or the agent already has seen the home. There are no surprises.

So why do agents participate? Because they then can proudly show their sellers the stack of business cards and tell them how many agents viewed their house, as if to say 37 Phoenix real estate agents viewing a home is better than one agent with a buyer who writes an offer after they leave.

Both Open Houses and broker tours provide sellers with the illusion of agent activity, even in the absence of actual activity. And many sellers are comforted by that, since in most cases it’s difficult to verify what exactly the agent is doing.

(I’d like to think my sellers have more reassurance than most. Enter “11530 S. Morningside”, the Estrella Mountain Ranch listing we viewed today, into Google and you’ll quickly see a small slice of where my listings can be found.

FOR THE FULL ARTICLE, PLEASE VISIT DALTON'S ARIZONA HOMES BLOG