Gerry Vazquez Realtor

Median Home Prices Up Across New York

Gerry Vazquez (gvconsulting) — Sat, 16 Feb 2008 14:50:48 -0600

The NAR issued its latest metropolitan areas price report this week.

The most interesting finding is that in the fourth quarter of '07, 73 out of 150 metropolitan statistical areas showed increases in median existing single-family home prices from a year earlier, including 11 areas with double-digit annual gains and another 12 metros showing increases of 6 percent or more; 77 had price declines including 16 with double-digit drops.

Here are the numbers for New York State (minus NYC):

Binghamton: 15%

Buffalo-Niagara: 6.2%

Syracuse: 4.3%

Glens Falls: 3.7%

Rochester: 2.7%

Kingston: 2.2%

Capitol District: 1.7%

Nassau-Suffolk: .05%

Whire Plains: .02%

Elmira: -6.0%

NAR: Median Sales Prices Up in Half the Country

Gerry Vazquez (gvconsulting) — Sat, 16 Feb 2008 14:26:12 -0600

The NAR issued its latest metropolitan areas price report this week.

Yes, the sales prices in half of the nations MSA's were up--and some by double digits!

Q for Agents serving a diverse suburban Latino population

Gerry Vazquez (gvconsulting) — Mon, 11 Feb 2008 23:34:25 -0600

Last night, I spent a few hours looking at the numbers and distribution of Latinos across some 125 separate communities which comprise Nassau County. Unfortunately, the data is from the 2000 census, so it's utility is limited. Nonetheless, I'm struck by how dispursed the population was/is. Every hamlet, village, city and town has their share of Latinos. While some some percentage of these Latinos are of the immigrant laborer variety, most are not. Indeed, most have above average incomes if they own property anywhere in Nassau County. Some are very affluent as they live in some of the toniest places in America.

I have a few questions:

1) Do any of you target Latinos on a regional basis (that is, you're not neighborhood-based)?

2) Do you serve Latinos across the full-spectrum of class, national origin and education?

3) Most importantly, what language are your marketing materials in given the diversity of the population?

BTW: My preference is for English language materials since most folks I know are fluent in English and many don't read Spanish. Am I wrong?

Communicating w/a diverse suburban Latino population

Gerry Vazquez (gvconsulting) — Mon, 11 Feb 2008 23:13:31 -0600

The Pew Research Center issued its U.S. population projections today for the year 2050. It's findings include: a U.S. population of 438MM, with most of the increase coming from immigrants and their children; a U.S. Latino population of 107MM; a nonLatino White population of 47% (down from 85% in 1960); and majority minority population of 51%. Where I live on long Island, New York, the Latino population is about 1.5MM--and my own conservative projections sees a 2MM population by 2020. Obviously, the impact on housing and the business of real estate is huge.

Last night I spent a few hours looking at the numbers and distribution of Latinos across some 125 separate communities which comprise Nassau County. Unfortunately, the data is from the 2000 census, so it's utility is limited. Nonetheless, I'm struck by how dispursed the population was/is. Every hamlet, village, city and town has their share of Latinos. While some some percentage of these Latinos are of the laborer variety, most are not. Indeed, most have decent incomes if they own property anywhere in Nassau County. Some are very affluent as they live in some of the toniest places in America. For example, the 2000 census counted 825 Latinos in Mill Neck, 96 in Upper Brookville and 38 in Laurel Hollow.

I have a few questions: 1) Do any of you target Latinos on a regional basis (that is, they're not neighborhood-based)? 2) Do you serve Latinos across the full-spectrum of class, national origin and education? 3) Most importantly, what language would you use given the diversity of the population?

Am I right to worry about possibly offending acculturated Latinos with Spanish language mailings? I ask because so many Latinos I come across that are homeowners are fluent in English, may not even read Spanish--and some may resent being viewed as a "newcomer". I know that anytime I receive credit card solicitation from Bank of America (I receive at least one per week) or any other company seeking my patronage, I automatically trash. I throw it away not because I can't read--I can, but because the marketers have assumed wrongly about who I am. I'm not a Spanish dominant, Univision-watching immigrant. If you put me in the wrong box, how can the product you're selling possibly by a good fit?

If any of this is true, how do people handle the sticky issue of language preferences?

Finding the Right Price

Gerry Vazquez (gvconsulting) — Sun, 03 Feb 2008 01:22:23 -0600

The other day I did a cma for a friend on a house she's thinking of buying. It's a nontraditional purchase in that she's buying it from the estate of her grandmother. The purpose for the cma is simply to establish the property's current fair market value. It's the 2nd cma as apparently one was done a year ago.

Obviously, a great deal has changed over the last 12 months making a new cma essential. The original cma showed a market value of $365K.

The home, a 4 bedroom/2 bth cape in need of renovation, is in a community I don't know well. Nevertheless, I collected information about the home from my friend; did a review of the property; confirmed the essentials through the county assessors office, and pulled together comps off of MLS. I only chose comps for similar neighborhood homes that have sold within the last three months.

What I found was the following:

1) 367 capes were for sale in the last 12mos; 43 sold at an average price of $390K

2) overall, 330 homes are for sale right now; 112 are capes

3) 3 updated capes near my friend's property are stalled at $365-395K price points

4) 1 handyman special is on the market nearby for $299K

5) avg price for 4 recently sold capes in need of substantial updating was $333K

Bottomline? My friend's house is worth substantially less than a year ago by about 30K. While prices may very well perk up given further rate drops and increased sales, but at the moment it's in my friend's interest to go to contract right-away.

Grappling w/the subprime problem: a local discussion

Gerry Vazquez (gvconsulting) — Sun, 27 Jan 2008 23:57:00 -0600

I attended a session today at the local Quaker Meeting on the subprime mess and what, if anything, members can do to help people in need. I had never attend a Quaker gathering so it was really refreshing to be among people whose commitment is to make a better world.

The session was facilitated by my friend whose the head of a regional council of churches and the panel included a lawyer versed in foreclosures and short sales and mortgage banker from a major commercial bank. Listening to the questions from the attendees it became quickly clear that the issue at hand was not an abstraction or foreign. What was being discussed were a set of circumstances that in some way affected many of the people in the room--either directly or indirectly. Some were younger people with modest incomes with fewer routes to home financing. Others were elders that seemed way too familiar with the downsides of the reverse mortgage trade. Yet others knew people, mostly professional types, that due to life problems (health issues, divorce, loss of employment), found themselves cascading towards bankruptcy, foreclosure and IRS troubles.

According to my friend from the council--who, btw, has been helping church leaders figure out ways to help their distressed parishioners, many of the folks that are teetering are middle class folks that bought bigger, pricier homes at the height of the bubble. He says that they are all around us on Long Island but may not be recognizable. Their homes are not shuttered, most are employed, and they're probably still driving late model cars. But many are cruising towards financial ruin. He says that this is a class of people that have a particularly difficult time accepting the reality of their financial problems--and that many may indeed be in denial.

What are the signs of these private crises? The ubiquitous "for sale" signs during a contracting market.

Not satisfied with the notion that there's little anybody can do to fix the problem, a member of the Quaker Meeting announced that her group was exploring setting up a fund to help--even if only a few families--afford their mortgages. Another discussion centered around the use of land trusts, entities that hold land in common and, thus, reduce the cost of home purchases. These ideas contrast dramatically w/the current system, but I have to hand it to the Quakers: They are alert to the problem and they're doing their part to fix it.

Wrong Prices = Stalled Sales

Gerry Vazquez (gvconsulting) — Sat, 26 Jan 2008 23:18:05 -0600

In Local numbers defy "doom and gloomers" I presented data for my region dispelled the notion that we are doomed. The data shows a market holding steady with some areas down a little and others up bit. It also shows that the condo market is up by double digits in some places.

Seems good but what about my specific community? How is it faring? Is it flat, too, or is something more dramatic happening? What's the data show?

There are about 500 homes in my bayside community of colonials, capes, ranches, splits and antiques. The affluent part of town it's actually two strips of land that jut out into the Great South Bay like two thumbs. Each is trimmed by waterfront homes, canals and marinas.

There were 72 homes on the market in 2006. Of those, 42 sold at an average $545K. In 2007, 65 homes were listed--but only 12 sold! However, the average price was up $36K.

Local realty firms that rode the wave are now taking hits to their professional reputations. Frustrated homeowners are pulling their properties off the market or re-listing them but with other firms. I've actually seen properties that have been listed with 3 different Realtors in one year.

The bottomeline, though, is that homes in my area are not selling for one simple reason: prices are too high.

Measuring success (and failure)

Gerry Vazquez (gvconsulting) — Thu, 24 Jan 2008 16:18:21 -0600

Since I'm focusing on just my town in '08, I thought I'd look at the performance of my competitors using available MLS data.

After crunching the numbers for last year's activity, I can tell who the top five firms are in total sales, and I can also identify the top producers in terms of average price and volume. I can even map sales and other indicators for by firm over time.

Here are some what I learned:

- There were over 500 homes on the market last year

- 97 firms (182 offices) were active in my town (listing/selling homes)

- Of those firms, only 5 had any significant market (between 4-15% each)

- Together these 5 firms controlled 45% of the market

However, not being satisfied in just knowing this level of information, I wanted to know something about how efficient these firms are. I decided to look at what I'm calling the "failure rate", that is, the percent of listings that were not sold--either because the listing expired or was withdrawn. (I'm sure many readers will say that including those withdrawn is not necessarily a sign of failure and, therefore, shouldn't be included. But the way I think a withdrawn listing is evidence--except in rare circumstances--of failure--be it in properly setting expectations, communications, pricing, follow-through, etc.)

When I look at the failure rate (expireds/withdrawals divided by # of listings), I learned a few interesting things. For example, the biggest listers had relatively low failure rates (16-35%), but not the smallest. A couple of modest size players had failure rates below 10%.

On the other hand, a few of the big producers also had rates of failure of over 50%. And one firm w/lots of listings and an army of agents in the region earned a an 80% failure rate in my town!

As a group, however, the segment with the most troubling failure rates were those with 3-10 listings in the mostly minority Northern half of town. Most of these firms had rates of failure between 50%-100%. Yes, a few completed the year w/out a single sale or contract extension. Very disturbing!

I'm wondering what people here think about this type of analysis? Is it fair? Is it useful? Are there better ways to measure or success or failure, or to evaluate the performance of competitors?

And, are firms w/high rates of failure acceptable to an industry already held by many in low regard?

Local numbers defy "doom and gloomers"

Gerry Vazquez (gvconsulting) — Wed, 23 Jan 2008 20:56:46 -0600

Last night I attended a session on market knowledge as part of my company's on-going effort to keep its agents ahead of the competition. I especially enjoyed the session because it was on analyzing and using data smartly.

The presenter--an experienced agent having a banner year--looked at '06 and '07 data for 6 fairly representative communities on Long Island. She found a much more favorable picture materialized. For example, while sales dipped in 4 of the communities, they were up in 2--with one up 17%.

In terms of price, the MLS data shows that '07 prices held steady from '06 levels. Of the six communities, 3 averaged 1.5% higher prices, while the other 3 averaged a minuscule 3.4% drop.

Quite a contrast to the 20% drop suggested by the media, right?

(BTW: She ran the #s for another 6 or so communities suggested by attendees and the pattern held true.)

But what really caught my attention was the condo/coop market. That segment across my region appears to be up--and in some cases up big-time. For example, condo/co-op sales in a Queens community rose 8.7% and prices 10.8%, or an average of $32,000 more than in '06. Part of it is a spillover from the still hot Manhattan market.

However, while the market is doing OK on Long Island, many homes are sitting w/o attracting much attention. The problem? Asking prices out-of-alignment w/local markets. The presenter's advise to agents? Really know your market--and homes accordingly. Good advice for agents everywhere.

Homeowner sues agent: What's an agent's responsibility in re: to home valuation?

Gerry Vazquez (gvconsulting) — Tue, 22 Jan 2008 11:07:36 -0600

Can real estate agents be sued by people that later conclude they purchased homes at inflated prices? Apparently, yes! We'll see how the case is decided, but the NYTimes is reporting that a Carlsbad, California woman has sued her buyer agent for failing to inform her that the property she purchased at the peak of the housing boom was worth substantially less. Before filing her lawsuit, the angry homeowners spent a year picketing the local ReMax agency.

I suspect we'll now hear of many more such cases.

I'm wondering what folks believe are--or should be--the responsibilities of buyer agents to clients in terms of home valuations?

Realtor and Politician Similarities?

Gerry Vazquez (gvconsulting) — Sun, 20 Jan 2008 13:42:32 -0600

I'm struck by the parallels between winning listings and sells and winning political office. Here are just of few of the similarities:

Name ID

The first thing most people notice about either activity are the lawn signs, newspaper ads, mailings and door-to-door visits. I come out of a campaign background, so flooding the community w/images of the politician is essential. Simply put--voters vote for the person they know--or think they know. The goal is to market your candidate in a way that results in your candidate gaining a higher level of name recognition than the opponent.

Geography specific

Realtors--like politicians--carve out a geographic area. While politicians are forced to because of the way political boundaries are set, Realtors do it because it maximizes their ability to raise their name ID--making it easier to identify and persuade prospects.

Winning the vote/sale

Politicians organize campaigns in order to win a party's endorsement and then to win a plurality of votes on election day. Realtors conduct campaigns in order to win listings and then to sell the homes.

Engaging and expanding their base

From day one in office, politicians look for ways to promote themselves to the voters. The idea is to stay in regular communications with your supporters and to expand the number of people that know and support you. Realtors also must work constantly to keep in touch w/clients--and to cultivate new clients.

Promises

Both professionals involve identify people's real needs and offering to fix them. But in both professions there are people who are better at promising than in delivering, and, of course, there are voters and sellers/buyers that expect the impossible. Trust is a vital commodity in both professions, but it's something that is so easily betrayed.

Bottom line is that both professions are essential to the health of market-based democracies. I believe that most politicians as well as most Realtors are honorable, accountable and conscientious people. But all it takes is a few rotten apples to ruin things for everyone.

Falling Prices: Good News for Young Buyers

Gerry Vazquez (gvconsulting) — Sat, 19 Jan 2008 21:26:09 -0600

So many in the media write about the current market as if the sky were falling. Sure there are problems, big problems, but it's not as if the problems are new or that we've never had colling off periods and falling prices. It's basic economics that market exuberance--and foolishness--will be followed by an essential correction.

So that's where we are--in an correction. I say thank goodness!

Think about it! At one point some 70% of Californians could not afford the average house. Same in Arizona, and elsewhere. Young people where I live were essentially priced out of the market. Conditions were so bad that young people had to leave the region in order to afford a home or they lived with mom and dad.

Unfortunately, because of resistant sellers and agents not doing their job, too many homes are overpriced with few takers.

But there are signs--at least here--that reality has started to set in. Today, I joined a colleague at an open house for a lovely, unpretentious 3 bedroom Cape in a working class community with good schools. The neighborhood is filled with retirees looking to downsize and young families starting out. The home is priced between $359K and $379K. Just across the street is another Cape offered at $349K. Area homes have sold for between $340K and $370K.

Turn out was lightl but a number of young couples did stop by. All rushed through as they were clearly taking a look at as many of the vast available inventory. I say good for them.

My view is that my friend's listing, which has been on the market for a while already, needs a further price reduction in order to come in line with today's market. And it should happen immediately. But once it does, I believe that it'll sell--perhaps to one of those young couples looking for their first shot at homeownership.

Just Say "No" to Over-Priced Listings

Gerry Vazquez (gvconsulting) — Fri, 18 Jan 2008 17:42:25 -0600

As part of my job to know that market in my area, I attended five broker open houses yesterday and today. They were in different communities and are being offered at different price points. For example, a small 3-brm ranch w/potential in a modest neighborhood was priced at $339K, while a an updated ranch w/a large lot in a more upscale community of listed at $625K. The other homes were offered w/in that spectrum.

I noticed 3 things:

1) All 7 are offered at price points above market.

2) 6 of the 7 agents expressed discomfort w/their respective price points.

3) 4 of the 7 homes were 2nd time relistings and 1 was on its 3rd.

Q: What good does it do the seller, the listing Realtor--and the real estate industry in general, when we continue to bring onto yet more improperly priced homes onto the market?

There's simply no justification for over-priced homes in today's market.

Of course, some Realtors say that it's the sellers who insist on overpricing. But that excuse begs the question about who's the market expert? And what's the quality of the education these Realtors are providing their clients?

But what's a Realtor to do if the seller refuse to accept the cold hard facts of the market as it is? It seems to me that agent should graciously decline the listing.

Am I wrong?

Researching REOs w/o paying for monthly subscriptions

Gerry Vazquez (gvconsulting) — Fri, 18 Jan 2008 00:24:49 -0600

My sister recently asked me to help her find a house she and my brother-in-law could pick up at a discounted price. Their plan is to sell their current home--which is a lovely home they had built about 5 years ago--move into and fix up the new home as a project for my handy and hyper energetic brother-in-law. They'll only take on such a project if they can get a home at a deep discount.

However, I live on the opposite end of the state--and I don't have access to the MLS in her area. I went onto Realtor.com to see what was listed there. While there are short sales and foreclosures listed, the site requires a monthly subscription to RealtyTrac. I called my sister and reported my findings, but told her that I'd try other ways to get the information we needed.

Then today, by accident, I came across a blog by an REO expert called A Home in Babylon Home. I was please to find that the site carries an REO Directory, a listing of banks and government agencies w/REOs (bank-owned properties). I went through a few and found what sounded like the sort of thing my sister would want to look at: a 1600 sq/ft home w/3 bdrms on a .5 acre. It's in the right town w/easy access to the lake. I went onto Google Earth to take a look at the property. The aerial view confirmed a large lot bounded by woodlands and farmland. The lot is clean with a driveway, car garage, a large shed and a structure that looks like a two-story farm ranch.

Wanting to take a closer like at the exterior of the home, I went to a site called CyberHomes. That site not only gave me a clear look at the structure and property, but it gave me the estimated value, important home details (such as when it was built) and neighborhood comps.

The cool thing is that as an REO, it is listed below par. Actually, the discount is almost 50% of the estimated value reported by CyberHomes--and about 40% of the neighborhood average. While I take these numbers with a grain of salt, I do think it's worth looking into. I collected the info and web links and emailed to my sister. I told her that she'll to confirm the home's availability and, of course, pay a visit to make sure that it's the real deal, unsold, and meets their requirements.

We'll see what happens. But for me, I'm just glad that I could give my sister really useful information w/o getting strapped w/monthly fees for services I would like not use.

Speeding the rate of absorption?

Gerry Vazquez (gvconsulting) — Wed, 16 Jan 2008 18:43:00 -0600

As part of study of the local/region real estate market, I analyzed the market absorption rates for different 10 communities w/in my town. I used ActiveRain member Gail McMillan's (as per her "Market Absorption Rate Formula - Made Easy!!"), which is current inventory divided by avg # of sales/mo. in the previous 12 mos. I did the calculations and learned that my town has a 12 mo supply of homes. Of course, there was great variability within the town, e.g., one area had a low 6 mo. supply, while another posted a 2.5 year supply--although most were in the 11 to 13 mo range.

Major oversupply--and it's getting worse!

Interestingly, the areas w/the fastest rates of absorption were not the highest or lowest priced, but the mid-tier areas with the higher scoring public schools. Those areas also seem to draw the interest of the more experienced and capable Realtors.

Q: The market is the market, but what--if anything--are people doing to hasten the rate of absorption?

How do members factor in absorption rates into their planning, listing presentations and marketing of homes?

A Blog That Helped Sell a House 1500 miles away in Puerto Rico

Gerry Vazquez (gvconsulting) — Tue, 15 Jan 2008 21:13:59 -0600

A few months ago I posted my mother's home for sale in Puerto Rico on one of my blogs. The blog has nothing to do w/real estate but some of the readers have a family connection to Puerto Rico. The economy is in very rough shape on the island--and from what I can tell, the listing Realtor is not exactly the crackerjack type. He relies on word-of-mouth and a small amount of island-based marketing. For example, no marketing to non-islanders.

Curious to see what was happening w/the post on my blog, I ran an Analytics report just a few days ago. What's neat is that report looked only at activity specific that that post. What I learned that was that the post had received a few hundred hits and that the hits came from people from across the U.S., Canada and Europe. A number also came from w/in the island itself.

I didn't know this until then, but I realized that Analytics could give me a pdf of the report--and that I could have the report emailed to whomever I want w/just a click. I immediately sent the report the report to my sisters, since they'd received so little information from the listing agent. They were thrilled by what the activity indicated in the Analytics report.

Then just today, I received a call from my sister in Georgia that a serious offer had arrived for my mother to review. Great news as my mother now a widower and anxious to move on with her life. The buyer? The info is a little sketchy, but it seems that the buyers are from the U.S. mainland and learned about the tropical property from my weblog. Cool!

Analytics is an incredible tool!

Gerry Vazquez (gvconsulting) — Tue, 15 Jan 2008 12:39:21 -0600

This is just a note to say that I swear by Google Analytics. I use it on my blogs and the data that I receive is really terrific. I can look at traffic to my sites and hits to specific posts in a number of ways. I especially love learning how many hits my sites receive on a daily basis, hits per post, where the visitors are from (city, state, country), how long they visit for, and whether they're new or returning visitors. You can also look at data over any period of time, languages used by visitors, and so much more. And it's all free!