Mark's Blog

Update on Corvallis Housing Market

Mark Fullwiler (Coldwell Banker Valley Brokers) — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 11:46:21 -0600

Price Range	Active Listings as of 11/10/2009	Sold Listings Last 6 Mos.	Average Sold Per Month	Months of Inventory	Av. Days on Market Solds
$0 - $99,999	*	1	0.17	*	41
$100,000 - $149,999	7	11	1.83	3.82	105
$150,000 - $199,999	29	38	6.33	4.58	99
$200,000 - $249,999	46	83	13.83	3.33	115
$250,000 - $299,999	46	56	9.33	4.93	152
$300,000 - $349,999	24	32	5.33	4.50	135
$350,000 - $399,999	23	12	2.00	11.50	151
$400,000 - $449,999	23	13	2.17	10.62	158
$450,000 - $499,999	8	3	0.50	16.00	151
$500,000 - $599,999	13	11	1.83	7.09	218
$600,000 - $699,999	7	2	0.33	21.00	108
$700,000 +	9	2	0.33	27.00	93

Tax Credit Extension and Expansion

Mark Fullwiler (Coldwell Banker Valley Brokers) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 14:28:18 -0600

Well, it is now official, having passed both houses of Congress and getting the President's signiture the first time home buyer's tax credit for up to $8,000 is now officially extended to April 30th. Qualifying buyers have to be in contract by this date but can close up to 60 days beyond this to comply with the criteria. Additionally, "move up" buyers, those who have been in their principle residence for 5 out of the last 8 years qualify for $6,500 tax credit. Under both scenarios an individual buyer cannot earn more than $125,000 or a couple purchasing together up to $225,000.

Home Buyer Tax Credit Update

Mark Fullwiler (Coldwell Banker Valley Brokers) — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 14:59:30 -0500

It hasn't been signed into law yet but what it looks like is that the $8,000 tax credit for first time home buyers who earn less than $125,000 as a single buyer or $225,000 for a couple will be extended from our current drop dead date of November 30th to April 30th 2010. Buyers need to be in escrow by this date but are allowed to close up to 60 days later. Additionally, "move up" buyers, those who have been in their home for at least 5 years and who also meet the income requirements of first time home buyers will be given a $6,500 credit. It should be passed as soon as next week. For any of you agents out there, bring one of these buyers for MLS #616699.

What, a Seller's Market?

Mark Fullwiler (Coldwell Banker Valley Brokers) — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 13:15:21 -0500

What else can I say? Since the Corvallis housing market wasn't hit near as hard as others, our time of correction also took less time to recover. It isn't as robust of a market as a few years ago but we are seeing multiple offers, back ups, and immediate sales IN OCTOBER!

Corvallis
Price Range	Active Listings as of 10/13/2009	Sold Listings Last 6 Mos.	Average Sold Per Month	Months of Inventory	Av. Days on Market Solds
$0 - $99,999	*	1	0.17	*	*
$100,000 - $149,999	10	12	2.00	5.00	101
$150,000 - $199,999	35	38	6.33	5.53	106
$200,000 - $249,999	37	80	13.33	2.78	118
$250,000 - $299,999	44	54	9.00	4.89	154
$300,000 - $349,999	27	30	5.00	5.40	150
$350,000 - $399,999	27	12	2.00	13.50	146
$400,000 - $449,999	23	13	2.17	10.62	152
$450,000 - $499,999	11	2	0.33	*	*
$500,000 - $599,999	15	12	2.00	7.50	204
$600,000 - $699,999	11	2	0.33	*	*
$700,000 +	10	2	0.33	*	*
	250	258		6.90	141

Tax Credit and Co-Signers

Mark Fullwiler (Coldwell Banker Valley Brokers) — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 17:21:56 -0500

As we hurl headlong into the last few days for the first time home buyer to obtain the tax credit I would like to put out there a little known fact: the first timer can have a co-signer and still qualify! I presently have a buyer utilizing this opportunity and a buyer in contract to purchase one of my listings is doing the same.

Oregon is magnetic and sticky

Mark Fullwiler (Coldwell Banker Valley Brokers) — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 16:43:50 -0500

I was just trolling through the Pew Research Center's Social and Demographic Trends site (if you haven't gone there check it out! They have some neat info and surveys to take) and came across something interesting but to me not at all surprising. They have charts of "magnetic states", ranking the propensity the state has to draw people in and rankings of "sticky" states, the measure of how well any individual state retains its native born citizens. Nationally, Oregon ranked a combined 6th place in both magnatism and stickiness. To my surprise, Arizona topped the list. Being from the NW I guess blistering hot deserts and rattle snakes don't make me want to pack up and move. I've never been to West Virginia, but it unfortunately ranked last in both categories.

Ten Year Housing Projection

Mark Fullwiler (Coldwell Banker Valley Brokers) — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 16:35:18 -0500

The chasim between what we Realtors know about the local housing market here in Corvallis and what the general skeptical public opinion may be has once again been narrowed thanks to US News and World Report. Their stataticians ground through employment and population data from 384 distinct statistical areas around the country and came up with their top ten cities for appreciating markets over the next ten years. Corvallis came in as the forth strongest market in the US with a projected 4% annual appreciation over the next ten years. Our encouraging Spring and now early Summer volume of pending sales support that we could be in the primary stage of recovery.

First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit As Down Payment

Mark Fullwiler (Coldwell Banker Valley Brokers) — Wed, 13 May 2009 10:49:45 -0500

The Department of Housing and Urban Development secretary Shaun Donovan announced to the NAR on Tuesday that FHA- approved lenders are able to monetize the first time home buyer tax credit through short term bridge loans allowing these borrowers to access the funds at closing. Yes, if I heard it right, the first timers are able to use this credit as a down payment. Some time next week FHA will go public with this news and the fine details will be clarified. Every so often the government does something so out of character that it is actually effective.

Lender Panel

Mark Fullwiler (Coldwell Banker Valley Brokers) — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 19:03:44 -0500

Yesterday, we had a panel of six mortgage professionals come to the office for a Q and A session. When the question was asked "How much down and what credit score if required to obtain preferred interest rates on owner occupied single family dwellings?" the pros said that a 740 credit score and 10% down will get it done with mortgage insurance and a 720 score minimum with 20% down without mortgage insurance. It was stated that zero income loans weren't happening even with 55% down, so LTV is less important than DTI 42%, this is a new change since the meltdown.

Affordable Social Networking

Mark Fullwiler (Coldwell Banker Valley Brokers) — Tue, 07 Apr 2009 18:23:05 -0500

We keep hearing that "we're all in this together", it isn't just a unfortunate few who are feeling the sting of a slow market but the great majority of us. Since the financial component of our lives is being seriously challenged, a few tips on how to cut costs and actually INCREASE internet exposure is worth looking into.

Being by nature a kind of extrovert, one who prefers face to face contact over digital, the overwhelming currant to "blog" and "text" just seems too sterile for my taste. But, tastes can be learned. At a time when a great many of us have terminated costly websites for self promotion a free approach to social networking is really attractive. The utilization of websites such as LinkedIn, which is designed as a professional network and Facebook, a site very familiar with the younger folks but nevertheless can be easily used by real estate professionals are both free and are the emerging trend. Pack your profile with full spellings of all manner of local points of interest and when people troll the internet looking for such a local feature that you mention in your site "bam' your site promoting you as a real estate professional comes up. Aside from Active Rain, other sites to look at are: retagger, and real town. Play with them, add as much info as they will allow and link them to each other and invite others to join you. I don't understand the cyber world but there are "spiders" that creep through the web collecting bundles of info and if you can get your business into a bundle of information your free internet exposure will begin to expand exponentially.

Snow on Daffodils

Mark Fullwiler (Coldwell Banker Valley Brokers) — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 15:09:09 -0500

Isnt' there a saying about March that it comes in like a lion and goes out like a lamb? Well, the lion part is bringing intermitant snow showers. Being a life long resident of Oregon, I have never seen snow in March, February maybe but March never. Fortunately, by noon or so it has been melting away. Global cooling one moment and global warming the next.

Anyway, the real reason for placing this entry is to follow up on my last blog about the foreclosure scenario here in Corvallis. There are approximately 10,250 houses in Corvallis and in 2008 only 3 were foreclosed upon while back in 2005 8 fell into this category. Yes, our foreclosure rate to date is DOWN from 2005. I don't even know how you would verbalize the present percentage rate for foreclosures here- I guess that is a good thing.

Foreclosure Report for Benton County

Mark Fullwiler (Coldwell Banker Valley Brokers) — Fri, 12 Dec 2008 17:45:18 -0600

Recently, an out of state business that is doing their due diligence for prospective communities to which to relocate contacted me. Among the many questions regarding the Corvallis housing market they posed, the one I found most difficult to obtain information on and the most surprising to answer addressed the foreclosure rates. In 2005, in all of Benton County there were only 34 foreclosed properties, three years later, in 2008, to date there are also 34. This number however is a bit missleading. Locally, we have a property owner who by design has a great many of their own properties in foreclosure. If we remove this abnormality, we can actually and acurately say FORECLOSURES HAVE DROPPED in Benton County over the past three years! In all of Benton County there are 15,745 single family residences, when you divide the number of homes foreclosed upon (34) with this number you arrive at a shocking .002% foreclosure rate in Benton County.

Where is the housing parade?

Mark Fullwiler (Coldwell Banker Valley Brokers) — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 13:23:17 -0500

The media just won't let up. Writers for newspapers, magazines, and TV broadcasts still lead off with headlines such as "housing crash", "real estate collapse", and "housing crisis". These headlines would lead one to believe that the great majority of American home owners are at risk of loosing their home or all the equity they have in it.

This is a gross misrepresentation of the housing market. Today, there are 120 million homes in the U.S. Of this number, a full 40 million are owned outright- free and clear. Is it a crisis that 40 million houses in the U.S. have no mortgage? Absurd!

Of the 80 million homes with mortgages, roughly 40 million were purchased prior to the year 2000. Since 2000 alone national home values have increased 53%. This is a spectacular return on initial investment dollars that ought to be making headlines!

Of the 80 million homes with mortgages a full 94% are performing, owners are regularly making payments each month while being able to live in the best investment out there. In what way does this warrant headlines of "crash, collapse or crisis"?

Of the 6% of home owners who are late in making payments only 2 million of these are also in forclosure. Think about it, of 120 million homes across the country only 2 million are in foreclosure or less than 2%. If we had unemployment down at less than 2% there would be parades in the streets. So where is the housing parade?

Market Update

Mark Fullwiler (Coldwell Banker Valley Brokers) — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 17:38:04 -0500

No more complaining about summer not getting here- its hot, muggy and smoky overcast from the California fires.

Here in Corvallis when one looks at how many single family residences sold (omitting with acreage, condos and manufactured homes) since the first of the year and taking the average solds per month and dividing our present active listing with this number we now have a little more than 7 months of inventory- an enviable level to many housing markets even nearby to say nothing of Florida or California.

Three communities nearby are not faring as well. Albany next door is at a twenty month inventory, a little further east Lebanon and Sweet Home each have a 16 month level of inventory.

Below is my finding of March through June prices at specific square foot levels of 2007 and 2008:

2007 2008

- to 1,000 square feet 160K 161k -.06%

1,000 to 1,500 SF 225K 213k -5%

1,500 to 2,000 SF 270k 265k -5%

2,000 to 2,500 SF 355k 350k -1%

2,500 to 3,000 SF 415k 412k -.5%

100% Rural Financing

Mark Fullwiler (Coldwell Banker Valley Brokers) — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 12:59:10 -0500

I just had a talk with a buddy who is a mortgage broker and he presented a very attractive 100% financing product for purchases outside of Corvallis and Albany. Here is what it consists of:

1) Buyers being single cannot make over $49,000 a year, or couples $56,000 a year.

2) Must have at least 620 credit score.

3) Intend to live in the property as primary residence.

4) Income to dept ratios up to 45%

5) No mortgage insurance.

6) Interest rate at 6.5% on 30 year fix.

These products have been around for years but over the past few years where high risk sub-prime lending baited buyers awayfrom this attractive option it has been largly ignored. Now with financing getting a little tighter I believe this will once again be an attractive option to buyers who meet the above criteria and wish to purchase rural property.

Word of Caution

Mark Fullwiler (Coldwell Banker Valley Brokers) — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 18:33:44 -0500

I don't know about you, but here in Corvallis we are beginning to bump into a new obstickle to a successful close and sale: apppraisals coming in "at or above" sales price.

Lenders, not wanting to get stuck with any more foreclosures are really tightening the requirements on the appraisers. In times past they had a relatively easy time finding litigimate comparables. Now, with a softening market many appraisers are having difficulty validating sales price due to a conspicuous lack of comparables- thus some accurately priced homes are running into problems appraising.

Cure? To plan for this unfortunate event with a property you notice has no clear, good comps make price adjustments instead of asking for repairs. Lowering the price increases the liklihood of it appraising at sales price.

Corvallis/ Benton County Update

Mark Fullwiler (Coldwell Banker Valley Brokers) — Wed, 04 Jun 2008 12:36:20 -0500

My principal broker brought to me some interesting statistics regarding "recordings" in Benton County on Monday. These are merely recordings with the county- not necessarily sales or purchases and include all refi's, names being added or removed from deeds, ect. In May there were 346 such recordings, second only to April of 2005 where there were 371.

In April of 2005 our housing market was really booming. With all the sub-prime loans being offered almost anyone with the nerve or stupidity, could obtain financing. Now, a little over three years later many of these mortgages with adjustable interest rates are adjusting and balloons are coming due. With help from FHA, many distressed home owners are able to refinance at respectable rates and stay in their homes- thus the greater number of recordings.

Although friends in the mortgage business are confirming that their bread and butter these days are refi's, homes are selling here in Corvallis. Looking back at the volume of homes sold over the past three months and applying absorbtion rate of active listings, we now have 6.8 months of inventory underscoring the vitality of our local housing market.

Mortgage Statistics

Mark Fullwiler (Coldwell Banker Valley Brokers) — Wed, 28 May 2008 11:51:06 -0500

Once again I returned to my desk to find some that some nice person placed National Association of Realtor printoutsanonymously on my chair.Some agents get jokes, I, statistics. I believe it is beneficial to synthesize the data for all here and now.

Nationally, 32% of homeowners have their homes paid in full
53% of home owners have prime mortgages
9% financed their home with a subprime loan
6% of home owners have either a FHA or VA loan

Nationally, these subprime loans comprise 54% of the total number of foreclosures. Of the various types of subprime loans in foreclosure, those with one year APR's top the list at 40.5%. Oregon's stats reflect similar trends:

29% own their home outright
60% have prime mortgages
7% have subprime mortgages
4% have FHA or VA mortgages

State wide, these subprime loans comprise 55% of the total number of foreclosures. Of the various types of subprime loans in foreclosure, those with one year APR's top the list.

So, once again, the mortgage/ housing market crisis is being blown way out of proportion. Fact is that nationally, 98% of mortgages are performing and statewide over 99% of mortgages are performing. Why are we not hearing the wonderful news of the millions of home owners who are making payments on an investment that historically, over a ten year period doubles in value?

Options to a Short Sale

Mark Fullwiler (Coldwell Banker Valley Brokers) — Thu, 22 May 2008 11:11:38 -0500

The unfortunate souls who owe more on their mortgage than the home is worth in our current market have at least 11 options other than a short sale to consider:

1) Bankruptcy

2) Buy next home while credit is good prior to selling home.

3) Deed foreclosure- quick claim deed the house to lender.

4) Do nothing, stay in the home and keep making payments, the market may improve.

5) Do nothing and stop making payments. Apply the amount of monthly mortgage payments to a saving account.

6) Forebarance aggrement where you are late on payments due to hardship. Lender can work with you to make arrangements where you can payback missed payments.

7) Hard money loan. Home equity loan from another property to obtain the means to perform on your mortgage.

8) Lease option with tenant.

9) Loan modification where your lender will adjust terms of sub-prime loan.

10) Rent property and apply income towards mortgage.

11) Sell property.

Something to keep in mind if pursuing a short sale is the the amount of the "boot" or the dollar figure forgiven is taxable. So if you are forgiven say $40,000 in a short sale the IRS will consider that as "earned income" and will tax it. If one is unaware of this the poor soul who was in fear and trembling under the over burden of a mortgage hasn't seen nothin yet. One should always hire an experienced short sale tax advisor before pursuing this option.

Statistics Skewed by Abnormal Times

Mark Fullwiler (Coldwell Banker Valley Brokers) — Wed, 14 May 2008 14:13:47 -0500

The housing market is largely an emotional issue for most of us. This is because a full 66% of us Baby Boomers have all of our retirement saving wrapped up in the home in which we live. Our future security and quality of life hinges on the appreciation of our live-in investment.

So is it any wonder why we worry when both NAR and Standard and Poor's shows dropping prices at national, state and local levels? Statistics from a normal market where high end homes have a steady supply of able buyers are much more reliable than what we face today. With dated limits on jumbo loans restricting sales of higher end homes, our present market shows abnormal statistics.

Lawence Yun, NAR's cheif economist, recently said, "If there are a lot more homes sold on the low end and fewer on the high end, the median price is bound to drop dramatically. The jumbo (mortgage) market is frozen and the buying activity is more concentrated in the lower value homes".

Long and Short Term Review

Mark Fullwiler (Coldwell Banker Valley Brokers) — Wed, 07 May 2008 15:34:43 -0500

I know I tend to be a numbers nerd, but here are some statistics pulled off the Willamette Valley Multiple Listing Service site. In Corvallis back in 2003 the average home cost $208,557, in 04 it rose to $235,272, in 05 it continued to climb to $257,777, in 06 $293,320, and finally in 07 $306,718. Homeowners who bought during this time have done well. Obviously, this is no longer a jaw dropping story. Yawn! we've heard it all before. The question is "what about today?".

Right now we are in a correcting market where at a few levels of homes the prices have actually diminished, not dropped, just diminished. Let me explain: I compared this year from January 1st to today with same time of last year. With small homes under 1,000 square feet our prices this year have dipped 1%,likewise with homes from 1,000 square feet to 1,500. Houses from 1,500 to 2,000 square feet decreased by 3% and homes between 2,000 and 2,500 square feet by a scant 1%. Surprisingly, homes from 2,500 to 3,000 square feet appreciated by a sizable 11%.

This past four months of course is only a mioptic view of the housing market but it does confirm that what we are experiencing in Corvallis is not the precipitous crash buyers were anticipating but rather a soft landing from a needed market correction.

Corvallis and Benton County Update

Mark Fullwiler (Coldwell Banker Valley Brokers) — Wed, 30 Apr 2008 18:28:10 -0500

Well, April was not going out without putting up a fight- I drove through quite a surprising hail storm this afternoon. Here in Benton County we presently have a fourteen month inventory of all types of properties and here in Corvallis, it is presently at ten months. These lengths of time are unusual for our area but it has been affected not just by the blustery winter months which normally slow things down but by winter months with the attitude of a teen-ager. As I have repeatedly noted, the negative press didn't exactly encourage buyers to put on their rain jacket and mittens and drive around looking at homes being pummeled with sleet and rain. Here at the office however, we are definately seeing a spike in the amounts of new transactions. Of the thirty new deals we wrote up in April only three of these fell apart, and none were due to financing- not bad. Wish you all the best.

Go Green!

Mark Fullwiler (Coldwell Banker Valley Brokers) — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 11:23:24 -0500

Could somebody please tell December to stop already? Apparently it wasn't notified that we are officially near the end of April. Enough belly aching. If you read my last post you'll see how wonderful it is to live in such a desirable city. Now, there's even more cool stuff to report. I returned to my desk earlier this week and some nice supporting agent who knows I like statistics and factoids had placed a copy of an article out of Country Home magazine on my chair with a list of the " Top 25 Green Cities in America:"- Corvallis is #1.

Our office in particular has a number of "Green Homes" listed. We are in contract with a builder of upper end homes that is leading the charge in this newly emerging approach to construction.

Great Place to Live

Mark Fullwiler (Coldwell Banker Valley Brokers) — Thu, 17 Apr 2008 11:56:26 -0500

Some people accuse me of using too many hyperbolisms in promoting Corvallis- but its not just me! In the April issue of "Country Home' magazine guess what town they put on the top of their list for the Top 25 places to live in the US? Give up? Corvallis, Oregon! Farmer's Insurance has us ranked as the safest city under 150,000 in the US and I believe it was a recent Forbes article that ranked us as the most intelligent city with 5% of our locals having a PhD. So, if you are attractive, safe and smart you'll love it here!

The Facts

Mark Fullwiler (Coldwell Banker Valley Brokers) — Thu, 10 Apr 2008 17:34:18 -0500

As Joe Friday, the stoic detective of the old TV serial "Dragnet" used to say: "I want the facts, just give me the facts", I'll give the facts on our housing market.

Since the beginning of the year in BentonCounty, 133 homes have sold (my statisitics will not include homes with acreage). Last year during this same time 178 homes sold. The average price of homes is currently $291,772 compared to last year's $280,000- a rough increase of 4%. The average days on the market is at 131 compared to last year's 111. Sellers are getting 98% of list price-same as in 2007. Across Benton County we have 12 months of inventory.

In Corvallis where I live and primarily work, we have sold 103 homes since the beginning of the year for an average price of $301,000, days on the market is at 122. Last year during this same period, 136 homes sold for an average of $287,340. In 2008 we have a 5% increase in housing prices compared to last year. Corvallis presently has 8.5 months of inventory.