The Home Hunter Blog - Mile High Home Hunter Realty

Those Who Have Chosen to Walk Away from Home Mortgages

Michael Clarkson (Mile High Home Hunter Realty) — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 08:48:01 -0500

This is a great post about the new strategy of defaulting on mortgages.

Michael

Via Liz Miller (Keller Williams Arizona Living Realty):

A new study looks are those who have chosen to walk away from home mortgages, and it has a few surprises.

For example: Who is more likely to walk away from a house and a mortgage -- a person with super-prime credit scores or someone with lower scores?

Research reported in the LA Times, drawn from 24 million individual credit files, has found that homeowners with high scores when they apply for a loan are 50% more likely to "strategically default" -- abruptly and intentionally pull the plug and abandon the mortgage -- compared with lower-scoring borrowers.

National credit bureau Experian teamed with consulting company Oliver Wyman to identify the characteristics and debt management behavior of the growing numbers of homeowners who bail out of their mortgages with none of the expected warning signs, such as nonpayments on other debts.

With foreclosures, delinquencies and loan losses at record levels, strategic defaults and walkaways are among the hottest subjects in residential real estate finance. Unlike in earlier academic studies, Experian and Wyman could tap into credit files over extended periods to identify patterns associated with strategic defaults.

Among researchers' findings are these eye-openers:

* The number of strategic defaults is far beyond most industry estimates -- 588,000 nationwide during 2008, more than double the total in 2007. They represented 18% of all serious delinquencies that extended for more than 60 days in last year's fourth quarter.

* Strategic defaulters often go straight from perfect payment histories to no mortgage payments at all. This is in stark contrast with most financially distressed borrowers, who try to keep paying on their mortgage even after they've fallen behind on other accounts.

* Strategic defaults are heavily concentrated in negative-equity markets where home values zoomed during the boom and have cratered since 2006. In California last year, the number of strategic defaults was 68 times higher than it was in 2005. In Florida it was 46 times higher. In most other parts of the country, defaults were about nine times higher in 2008 than in 2005.

* Two-thirds of strategic defaulters have only one mortgage -- the one they're walking away from on their primary homes. Individuals who have mortgages on multiple houses also have a higher likelihood of strategic default, but researchers believe that many of these walkaways are from investment properties or second homes.

* People who default strategically and lose their houses appear to understand the consequences of what they're doing. Piyush Tantia, an Oliver Wyman partner and a principal researcher on the study, said strategic defaulters "are clearly sophisticated," based on the patterns of selective payments observable in their credit files. For example, they tend not to default on home equity lines of credit until after they bail out on their main mortgages, sometimes to draw down more cash on the equity line.

Strategic defaulters may know that their credit scores will be severely depressed by their mortgage abandonment, Tantia said, but they appear to look at it as a business decision: "Well, I'm $200,000 in the hole on my house, and yes, I'll damage my credit," he said of defaulters. But they see it as the most practical solution under the circumstances.

The Experian-Wyman study does not try to explore the ethical or legal aspects of mortgage walkaways. But it does suggest that lenders and loan servicers take steps to screen and identify strategic defaulters in advance and possibly avoid offering them loan modifications, since they'll probably just re-default on them anyway.

Realtor Liz Miller - Lake Havasu City, Arizona Real Estate

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Market Conditions - As of August 1, 2009

Michael Clarkson (Mile High Home Hunter Realty) — Tue, 11 Aug 2009 12:59:15 -0500

Market Conditions - As of August 1, 2009

In July, the national unemployment receded back to 9.4% from 9.5% in the prior month. This is a positive sign that the bottom of the recession appears to be close at hand, if not already past, as unemployment is a trailing indicator.

Denver's market continues to demonstrate some indications of stalling - the absence of move-up buyers.

Let's start with the facts:

Remembering that 6 months is the tipping point between Seller's markets (below 6 months) and Buyer's markets (above 6 months), here is how Denver is faring:

•· Nationwide - 9.4 months of inventory, down from 9.8 months the prior month

•· Denver - 5.82 months of inventory (seasonalized over the past 12 months), up from 5.72 the prior month

Denver's sub-markets by price were the following:

•· $0- $200k (up to the median price) or 50% of the market - 2.3 months of inventory (strong seller market) - This improved by 0.1 months from the prior month; below $100k, the months of inventory is 1.1 months and between $100k and $200k, there are 2.74 months of inventory.

•· $200k to $400k (median to the $100k annual qualifier) or 50% to 88% of the market - 5.9 months of inventory (seller market) - This is up slightly from last month and continues a trend from the past 8 months; this segment is up from a low of 4.3 months in December 2008.

•· $400k to $1m - 14.4 months of inventory (heavy buyer market) - There has been no change since last month

•· $1m and up - 48.7 months of inventory - Though the rate of deterioration is slowing, the deterioration is continuing - up from 47.5 months last month.

So, 88% of our addressable market is seller to strong seller market and remaining firm with a composite of 3.93 months of inventory.

Listings are static at 20,890. This has not materially changed since January and has been nearly exactly the same for eight straight months.

The 5 years' average is 28,609 listings, meaning listings were down 22.8% from historic levels.

Sold listings were 4,440. Though up from last month, the 5 years' average is 5,083, meaning 12.7% fewer homes were sold.

As a result of the failure of the market to close sales, Denver's market strength is weakening and, prices are moving down.

•· Median sold price - $230k down from $238k last month

•· Average sold price - $277k up from $283k last month

•· As a result of high end homes listing, but not selling, the average list price was $539k down from $540k last month. The lack of high end mortgages precludes them from being sold readily, and increases the risk of higher end foreclosures in the near to intermediate term.

Days on market (DOM) is 100 days, the same as the prior month.

Now, the problem:

Denver continues to suffer from homes that contract for multiple months, but fail to close. This month, 1,899 homes were under contract for more than a month, up slightly from the prior month's total of 1,899 homes.

Here's the logic:

•· Up until the financial crisis last October, about 5059 homes per month were active up to the $200k price point; now only 3550 are active. This means a 30% reduction in inventory.

•· Solds per month at that same price point over that same period were up from 1219 homes sold to 1383 homes sold. That is a 13.5% increase in activity.

On the face of it, that's a good thing. However, the average buyer moves up 50%. That move up activity is not being seen in the market. In fact, sales activity is down 12.3% in the $200k to $400k market, the next higher price bracket.

•· Solds were down to 1220 (after the crisis) from 1391 per month (before the crisis), meaning one would expect that pipeline of sellers in the sub $200k market would normally be a pipeline of buyers moving up-market to the $200k to $400k market. That is not occurring.

Indeed, the diverging of the $0-$200k (decreasing months of inventory) and the $200k-$400k (incrasing months of inventory) segments shows that people are not buying up - a requirement for a sustained recovery.

This leads this author to believe that Denver's market is stalling now. To be direct, the market's failing to fill the sales pipeline in the buy up segments indicates that the gained success will be elusory.

Indeed, if interest rates continue to climb, things will soften more quickly than alluded to here.

Guerrilla Marketing -- Daring To Be Different

Michael Clarkson (Mile High Home Hunter Realty) — Sat, 08 Aug 2009 10:25:35 -0500

What a great article!

Via Clint Miller (Real Estate Client Referrals, LLC):

"Marketing is the differentiation of yourself against your competition. Advertising is the cost of being boring."

That is according to an article I read in BrokerAgentPro roughly a year ago. The article went on to say that, if a person marketed themselves properly, they would never need to advertise because everyone would already know who they are and what they do. The article also went on to say that, if you don't know the difference between the two, you should hire someone that does. And, I couldn't agree more!

I enjoy marketing. I guess that is why I blog. It's a good way for me to differentiate my company versus other companies in this same market space in a way that reaches my customer base quickly, efficiently, and in a format that they understand. And...it's FREE!  What could be better? Especially when you consider that my company does no advertising at all (aside from the gazillion websites we have out in the interwebz).

One aspect of marketing I really find fascinating is the underground, sometimes subtle, sometimes "in-your-face" marketing that has been affectionately called "guerrilla" marketing.

Below is a couple examples of very successful guerilla marketing campaigns.

In this example, the information on the tear-away "teeth" is for a new dentist office that opened up about a block away from this pole.

This photo was taken by a passenger at an airport turnstyle. If you saw this while picking up your bags, do you think you would remember it??

On occasion, I have posted tweets on my Twitter account about different guerrilla marketing ideas that I have come across. As a result, I was asked to compile a list of some of them and write a blog about them.

But, before I started writing this, I posted a status update about a guerrilla campaign on our Facebook fan-page. It quickly insighted a response! (You can see the entire conversation here -- Real Estate Client Referrals fan-page)

"Is this both acceptable and smart?" asked one fan.

"Annoying" and "Obnoxious" said another.

Yet other fans said things like "I like the way you think." And, "I love it!"

Guerrilla marketing isn't for everyone.  And, some of these suggestions are simply just too risky for some to attempt. But, if they didn't work, you wouldn't hear about them. Keep that in mind as you read through this list...

Place business cards (mini moo cards, for example) in the sugar packet containers at restaurants

Go to the local computer store and change the home page on the browsers to your website

Have a rubber stamp made of your twitter handle (Or your website!!) and stamp it on all of your money; Also, if you are attending an event where you would hand out a business card, take $50 in $1 bills that have been stamped with your website. Hand them out to people as if it was your business card.

Use that same stamper and stamp a book of post-it notes. Place those post-it notes anywhere people can see them.

Go to the library/book store and put a business card in every book that relates to your field; IE -- Own a restaurant supply store? Put your cards in the cook books. You're a contractor?? Put cards in all the Do-It-Yourself repair books.

Slip business cards into the magazines at your salon, doctors office, dentist office, etc.

Go to the beach and write your company name in the sand in huge letters

Buy cheap plastic magnetic letters (like for your fridge) and put your website on anything metal -- doors, poles, road signs. The letters are cheap...so if they fall off, no biggie...and they wont cause permanent damage to whatever you put them against (except maybe a hard-drive).

Get sidewalk chalk and draw feet or arrows to your office on the sidewalks and streets around town. As you people get close to your office, write an offer. IE -- "10% off if you mention you saw this!"

Use that same sidewalk chalk and write your website or company name in parking lots/cross walks/ETC

Fliers!!!  Flieers are cheap and can be distributed ANYWHERE! Put them in businesses (that will allow it), parking lots, street poles, bus stops, anywhere people can see them.

Put ads in local free papers (if available in your area) IE -- the Nickel

Get blank business cards made up with only your website address on it (or twitter handle). Hand them out whenever someone talks about a website (or you talk about a website)

Put an add in the personals in our local paper -- "MWM real estate agent seeks buyers for 145 Shady Lane; Must be in good humor and have decent credit". (There is some obvious personal safety issues associated with this one.  I would do this because Im 6'2" tall and weigh about 320 lbs. But, if I were a 5'1" blonde lady that weighed 110 lbs, I might feel like this would not be safe for me to attempt. Be safe, people!)

Use pictures in your blogs titled with your key search words. Trust me, it works! You have to write the post anyway...may as well make it pop AND get some SEO juice from it. Get temporary tattoos made of your website and wear them in plain view. People will take notice, I promise!

Add the phone line from a brokerage that closes to your phone system -- I just spoke with an agent that worked for RE/MAX after calling a phone number that was listed in YellowBook as Century21. It turns out the C21 brokerage closed. So, the RE/MAX office had the number added to their inbound lines. GENIUS!! Now, all of that advertising that the C21 office did is supporting that number!

Yes, it is true. Some of these suggestions simply wont work in your market. Some of these suggestions might just be "too scary" or be deemed by some as "a waste of time". (They used to say that about blogging, too. Just saying.) Yet, other people may think that these are bold attempts at being different...'thinking outside the box' to the 10th power.

Either way, these simple, yet effective, types of marketing will make people talk about you and your business. And, isn't that the goal of marketing?? If you believe that "there is no such thing as bad press", then this underground "guerrilla" marketing might just be the thing for you!

If you would like more information on Real Estate Client Referrals, please click on this link. Or, you can contact Clint at 800-977-7058 or follow us on Twitter.

A Thursday Humor.....From an Attorney

Michael Clarkson (Mile High Home Hunter Realty) — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 23:20:14 -0500

Via Larry Bettag - Cherry Creek Mortgage:

I'm a licensed real estate attorney. But I have litigated in court. Needless to say.....I have friends who send me this stuff from time to time. It's good humor meant to keep me and us all humble. Hope you enjoy.....

These are from a book called Disorder in the American Courts,
and are things people actually said in court, word for word, taken down and
now published by court reporters that had the torment of staying calm while
these exchanges were actually taking place.

       ATTORNEY: What was the first thing your husband said to you
        that morning?

WITNESS: He said, "Where am I, Cathy?"

ATTORNEY: And why did that upset you?

WITNESS: My name is Susan.

____________________________________________

       ATTORNEY: What gear were you in at the moment of the impact?

WITNESS: Gucci sweats and Reeboks.

____________________________________________

       ATTORNEY: Are you sexually active?

WITNESS: No, I just lie there.

____________________________________________

       ATTORNEY: This myasthenia gravis, does it affect your memory

        at all?

WITNESS: Yes.

ATTORNEY: And in what ways does it affect your memory?

WITNESS: I forget.

ATTORNEY: You forget? Can you give us an example of something
        you forgot?

___________________________________________

       ATTORNEY: Do you know if your daughter has ever been involved
        in voodoo?

WITNESS: We both do.

ATTORNEY: Voodoo?

WITNESS: We do.

ATTORNEY: You do?

WITNESS: Yes, voodoo.

____________________________________________

       ATTORNEY: Now doctor, isn't it true that when a person dies
        in his sleep, he doesn't know about it until the next morning?

WITNESS: Did you actually pass the bar exam?

____________________________________

       ATTORNEY: The youngest son, the twenty-year-old, how old is
        he?

WITNESS: He's twenty, much like your IQ.
       ___________________________________________

       ATTORNEY: Were you present when your picture was taken?

WITNESS: Are you shitting me?
       _________________________________________

       ATTORNEY: So the date of conception (of the baby ) was August
        8th?

WITNESS: Yes.

ATTORNEY: And what were you doing at that time?

WITNESS: Getting laid

____________________________________________

       ATTORNEY: She had three children, right?

WITNESS: Yes.

ATTORNEY: How many were boys?

WITNESS: None.

ATTORNEY: Were there any girls?

WITNESS: Your Honor, I think I need a different attorney. Can
        I get a new attorney?

      ____________________________________________
       ATTORNEY: How was your first marriage terminated?

WITNESS: By death.

ATTORNEY: And by whose death was it terminated?

WITNESS: Take a guess.
       ____________________________________________
       ATTORNEY: Can you describe the individual?

WITNESS: He was about medium height and had a beard.

ATTORNEY: Was this a male or a female?

WITNESS: Unless the Circus was in town I'm going with male .
      _____________________________________
       ATTORNEY: Is your appearance here this morning pursuant to a
        deposition notice which I sent to your attorney?

        WITNESS: No, this is
        how I dress when I go to work.
      ______________________________________
       ATTORNEY: Doctor, how many of your autopsies have you
        performed on dead people?

WITNESS: All of them. The live ones put up too much of a
        fight .
       _________________________________________

       ATTORNEY: ALL your responses MUST be oral, OK? What school
        did you go to?

WITNESS: Oral.
       _________________________________________
       ATTORNEY: Do you recall the time that you examined the body?

WITNESS: The autopsy started around 8:30 p.m.

ATTORNEY: And Mr. Denton was dead at the time?

WITNESS: If not, he was by the time I finished.
      ____________________________________________
       ATTORNEY: Are you qualified to give a urine sample?

WITNESS: Are you qualified to ask that question?
       ______________________________________
       And the best for last:

ATTORNEY: Doctor, before you performed the autopsy, did you
        check for a pulse?

WITNESS: No.

ATTORNEY: Did you check for blood pressure?

WITNESS: No.

ATTORNEY: Did you check for breathing?

WITNESS: No.

ATTORNEY: So, then it is possible that the patient was alive
        when you began the autopsy?

WITNESS: No.

ATTORNEY: How can you be so sure, Doctor?

WITNESS: Because his brain was sitting on my desk in a jar.

ATTORNEY: I see, but could the patient have still been alive,
        nevertheless?

WITNESS: Yes, it is possible that he could have been alive
        and practicing law.

When do the "Product Liability" Lawsuits Start? Or, why aren't sub-prime loans like exploding Ford Pintos?

Michael Clarkson (Mile High Home Hunter Realty) — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 22:56:59 -0500

As our nation has tumbled - and, hopefully, stabilized - through this cascade failure of ethics and rampant illegalities in the housing market, my mind turns to the people most hurt in this process:

The remaining, decent, hard-working homeowners whose homes are SO FAR UNDERWATER that they can only be listed by Jacques Cousteau!
- A significant number (estimated in the 20%+ range, but as HIGH AS 58% in Nevada, see chart: http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/SbBiutEMTvI/AAAAAAAAEts/B8th8T3WLjg/s1600-h/PercentMortgagedNegativeEquity.jpg ) are now underwater on their homes. Yet, they pay their mortgages on time.
State, local and school coughers now drained from reduced property valuations/taxes and/or lost transfer taxes on the sale of real estate
Adults who were misled about the loans and/or the valuations on the homes they were purchasing.
- Although I believe all adults are responsible for their actions and the contracts to which they sign their names, there are a meaningful amount of folks who get slammed with a REAM of paper at a one-hour closing and are expected to read and understand all the peculiarities/legalities of a document it took years to prepare and seconds to sign.
- I mean, I have an MBA and I read all my loan documents - and require my lenders prepare my client packages at least three days prior to a closing for their INFORMED REVIEW. However, I am sure there is stuff I don't understand in those documents as a borrower!
And, yes, I will put in a plug for us Realtors®, who get stuck cleaning up others' messes and, yet, get blamed when we had NOTHING to do with the loans or the appraisals.

So, given these varied stakeholders being hurt - many having NOTHING to do with the transaction itself - I wonder aloud: Why aren't sub-prime mortgages not considered defective [bank] products? AND, why aren't their HUGE class-action suits getting fired up?

I mean,

A Ford Pinto gets hit from behind and explodes like an artillery shell and it's a product liability issue when people are hurt.
Lead gets into toys and it's Mattel that's taken to task for faulty products and had to pay multiple millions in civil penalties for toys it DIDN'T EVEN MANUFACTURE!!!
Bridgestone/Firestone made tires that spontaneously disintegrate and the trial lawyers descend like flies on pooh.

So, where are the "product liability" suits from aggrieved homeowners, school districts, counties and states that lost billions in revenue from the "defective loan products" foist upon our great country?

What's the liability? Let's run some quick calculations:

Denver's median home price (SFR) is just shy of $200,000. Let's assume this crisis has caused values uniformly across all homes in the United States of all types to drop by 5%, or $10,000. Using that placeholder, here is the potential impact to lost equity:

Nationally, per American Housing Survey: 128,203,000 homes (seasonal, rental, owner occupied) x $10,000 = $1,282,030,000,000... Nearly $1.3 trillion!
- Source: http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/ahs/ahs07/tab1a-1.pdf
Colorado, per the Census (est. 2006) there were 2,094,898 housing units. Assuming that same $10,000 of lost equity due to how bad foreclosures are, that equates to $20,948,980,000 or nearly $21 billion in lost equity just in Colorado.

In short, this touches everyone in the country -- profoundly. Those numbers are the size of multiple TARP programs.

So, where are the product liability suits? I can point to 100% of the remaining homeowners on any given block that are hurt from ill-conceived, manifestly corrupt loans and lending practices.

Why aren't they suing? When will they?

I am as Conservative as they come and I am not fond of most litigation, but I wonder - again, aloud - where are the product liability lawsuits?!?!

Real Estate Scam - Beware of an email like the following...

Michael Clarkson (Mile High Home Hunter Realty) — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 10:15:40 -0500

Imagine my pleasant surprise! I received the following email today as I started my work day:

Hi there,

I am interested in viewing one of your properties while on my holiday here, could you please call me on my overseas mobile +882 135 503 28 to setup a time. As I am travelling and unable to pickup emails regularly so please call.

Kind regards,

Elizabeth Casey

---------

Mobile: +882 135 503 28

How awesome! Someone hit my website and wanted to see my listing!

Oops! One problem: I recently started investing full time and committed to only working with referrals (prior clients) in my licensed capacity. I had referred out all my internet leads to other brokers.

So, how did Elizabeth find me?

Well, I "Binged" (not cool to Google anymore) Elizabeth. I found out that Elizabeth has been in nearly 200 markets coast to coast in the past 24 hours. (Though I am not sure, she has been described as traveling with a fat man driving a sleigh and 8 reindeer.)

It sounds like a dial and pay scam in the vein of a "900 number" dial and pay. It's a paid toll service. (See here: http://area-codes.1keydata.com/area-codes-8.php#882 )

So, please beware of Elizabeth. You have been warned.

One final thought: it's sad that our industry is perceived as so desperate that we would chase every lead like it's the last lead on earth.

This is exactly why I work by referral!

Michael Clarkson

Denver Market Conditions - As of July 1, 2009

Michael Clarkson (Mile High Home Hunter Realty) — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 15:35:11 -0500

Market Conditions - As of July 1, 2009

Reports can be retrieved at: http://images.agentcenter.com/client/4/3/9/23934/2009.06_Blog_Information.pdf

In June, the national unemployment rate inched up to 9.5% from 9.4% in the prior month. That is the 2^nd highest it's ever been since statistics have been tracked consistently, starting in January 1948. Recapping the five most recent highs have been:

•1. 10.8% - November and December 1982

•2. 9.4% - May 2009

•3. 9.0% - May 1975

•4. 7.9% - October 1949

•5. 7.8% - July 1976, November 1976, July 1980, June 1992

Despite Denver's market news looking initially optimistic, there are some troubling signs that require monitoring.

Let's start with the facts:

Remembering that 6 months is the tipping point between Seller's markets (below 6 months) and Buyer's markets (above 6 months), here is how Denver is faring:

•· Nationwide - 9.6 months of inventory

•· Denver - 5.72 months of inventory (seasonalized over the past 12 months)

Denver's sub-markets by price were the following:

•· $0- $200k (up to the median price) or 50% of the market - 2.4 months of inventory (strong seller market) - This is static from last month.

•· $200k to $400k (median to the $100k annual qualifier) or 50% to 88% of the market - 5.8 months of inventory (seller market) - This is up slightly from last month

•· $400k to $1m - 14.4 months of inventory (heavy buyer market) - Notably up from last month

•· $1m and up - 47.5 months of inventory - This is up 4.2 months in just one month!!!

So, 88% of our addressable market is seller to strong seller market and remaining firm.

Listings are static at 20,853. This has not materially changed since January and has been nearly exactly the same for six straight months. Listing levels have only increased by 1,105 in a metro area of nearly 3 million people!!!! That's embarrassingly anemic!

The 5 years' average is 27,009 listings, meaning listings were down 22.8% from historic levels.

Sold listings were 4,186. Though up from last month, the 5 years' average is 5,102, meaning 18% fewer homes were sold.

As a result of this market strength, prices are moving up.

•· Median sold price - $238k up from $220k last month

•· Average sold price - $283k up from $262k last month

•· As a result of high end homes listing, but not selling, the average list price was $540k up from $538k last month. The lack of high end mortgages precludes them from being sold readily, and increases the risk of higher end foreclosures in the near to intermediate term.

Days on market (DOM) is 100 days.

Now, the problem:

Denver continues to suffer from homes that contract for multiple months, but fail to close. This month, 1,886 were under contract for more than a month, down from 2,196 the prior month or 310 homes.

Assuming all of those 310 homes went from under contract to closing, only 248 additional homes were sold, which would be an anemic pace. If none of those long-term under contracts closed the 558 incremental homes sold represent a disturbing trend: Insufficient volume to force up prices meaningfully for an extended period of time.

Here's the logic:

•· Up until the financial crisis last October, about 5059 homes per month were active up to the $200k price point; now only 3550 are active. This means a 30% reduction in inventory.

•· Solds per month at that same price point over that same period were up from 1219 homes sold to 1383 homes sold. That is a 13.5% increase in activity.

This leads this author to believe that Denver's market may stall in the next few months, if the $200k to $400k market does not improve commensurate with activity in the sub $200k market.

Indeed, if interest rates continue to climb, things will soften more quickly than alluded to here.

Realtors are Price Fixing

Michael Clarkson (Mile High Home Hunter Realty) — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 11:36:43 -0500

Yep. You heard me. Realtors are price fixing around the country!!! And the Department of Justice is doing NOTHING about it!!!

First, let me state: There is to be no discussion of percentages!!!

Secondly, my question is: Is it price fixing when banks set commission rates in short sales - when they are not the Sellers (nor parties to the contract). Are they, in effect, price fixing in the markets in which they practice that activity? And, aren't we, as Realtors, complicit in that activity by accepting those rates?

I do realize that practice is a tortious interference with each broker's listing/buyer agreement (but who is going to sue?), but it is not also a criminal act under Anti-Trust?

Let me the lay out the logic of the argument in my mind:

•1. Each office is independently owned and sets its own commission policy - sometimes allowing that to be done at the broker associate level. This is the way IT SHOULD BE and, I suspect the Department of Justice wants it to be to comport with Anti-Trust legislation.

•2. Short-sale and foreclosure properties comprise 30% to 50% (or more) of the active listings in most markets presently.

•3. Banks - who are not parties to the short-sale transactions [though stakeholders] - demand novations and/or tortiously interfere with established commission contracts to impose alternative commission structures on the brokerage community.

•a. Bear in mind that the "Exclusive Right to Buy" or "Exclusive Right to Sell", as we call them in Colorado, are SEPARATE from the "Contract to Buy/Sell"; thus the requirement they are novated/tortiously interfered with imposes a condition outside of the "net price approval" for a home on the purchase contract.

So, if it's illegal for us to conspire to set prices, then why isn't it illegal for a non-party to the listing/buying agreement and the contract for sale to set commissions across a market, state or country? Isn't that price fixing?

Then, isn't it complicit to accept those novations from a 3^rd non-party to the contract?

TO BE CLEAR: I AM ASKING THIS QUESTION AS A LEGAL MATTER. I AM NOT SUGGESTING ANY PATH OF ACTION. HOWEVER, MY QUESTION IS: IF PROACTIVE PRICE FIXING IS ILLEGAL, ISN'T REACTIVE PRICE FIXING JUST AS ILLEGAL??

Banks selling their REOs is one thing (they own them); their interference with established agreements -when not a party to the sale [though a stakeholder] - is another.

In my mind, this is no different than gas stations setting prices based on what they are told from their distributor...which has been successfully prosecuted before.

TO REITERATE: I AM ASKING THE PHILOSOPHICAL/LEGAL QUESTION, NOT ADVOCATING ANY PARTICULAR ACTION.

I am not a lawyer, but I am an MBA and Economist by academic training. It sure walks like a duck, quacks like an "anti-trust violation duck" to me.

July Real Estate Update

Michael Clarkson (Mile High Home Hunter Realty) — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 12:49:28 -0500

Here is a link to my "July Real Estate Update":

http://realtytimes.com/128/MichaelJClarkson

This Newsletter is full of interesting and useful information that I think you will enjoy whether you are a buyer, seller, homeowner, or renter.

This month's issue includes topics such as:

"The Contract Offer: What Price to Start With";
"Campaign To Extend and Expand Housing Tax Credit";
"Going Green May Help Sell Your Home";
"Housing Starts Are Up Again";
"Selling Your Home May Be Influenced by What Buyers Can't See";

Plus a roundup of June real estate activity as well as much more advice and information.

I hope you enjoy this monthly newsletter. If you have any comments, please e-mail them to me. Or, if you would like to see a certain topic covered in future months, let me know that too!

If you do not wish to receive this Newsletter each month, please reply to this e-mail with the word 'REMOVE' in the subject line.

Sincerely,

Michael Clarkson

How to Avoid Paying the Procrastination Tax

Michael Clarkson (Mile High Home Hunter Realty) — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 02:31:53 -0500

Are you paying "The Procrastination Tax"????

In these times of economic hardship, there is a tax so many pay WILLFULLY!!! I can never understand why, but they do:The Procrastination Tax.

You pay it, and don't even realize it! And it's likely the biggest discretionary tax you will pay! It's a tax paid for with trade-offs.

Well, remember when you bought that Jan Michael Vincent "AirWolf" Leather Jacket back in 1984, instead of putting that $500 in Apple Computer stock? Well, that $500 of Apple Computer stock, if bought on September 7, 1984, would be worth over $22.5k today, though it peaked over $33k in December 2007.

What is the "AirWolf" Jacket worth today? Uh, not that much. And, THAT'S assuming you can live through the humiliation of admitting you ACTUALLY watched "AirWolf".

Don't you wish you could have THAT decision back? That's an example of a trade-off gone sadly awry.

Like that decision you wish you could have back, here is an opportunity to avoid as costly a mistake by waiting in the market, assuming buying up is a right move for you. I have shared this exercise with clients and they appreciated it -- the insight about the money lost to lost opportunity.

So, let's assume this is you:

You have a $200k home
You want to buy 50% up (as most folks do) to a $300k home
You put down 3.5% (or $10.5k) with a $289.5k loan on your new home and are able to get a 5%, 30-year fixed mortgage
BUT, you wait, because you think you can get that last $1k or $2k out of the market and then rates creep up.

What does that cost you? Well, depending on how long and how far rates move, potentially, a lot!

Take a look at this table.


	*Equity*	*Consumed*	by	*Change*	in	*Interest*	*Rates*

				*Equity* *Payments* *Change* *Balance*	*Consumed* *Resulting* *Based* Of	*Due* *From* on *$289500*	To *Interest* *Esimated*	*Inremental* *Rate* *Loan*

*Interest Rate*	*Pmt per $100k*	*Based on Est Loan Balance*	*Based on Purchase Price*	*1 Yr*	*3 Yr*	*5 Yr*	*7 Yr*	*10 Yr*
5.00%	$536.82	$1,554.10	$1,610.46	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00

5.50%	$567.79	$1,643.75	$1,703.37	($1,075)	($3,227)	($5,379)	($6,454)	($10,758)

6.00%	$599.55	$1,735.70	$1,798.65	($2,179)	($6,537)	($10,896)	($13,075)	($21,792)

7.00%	$665.30	$1,926.05	$1,995.91	($4,463)	($13,390)	($22,317)	($26,780)	($44,634)

8.00%	$733.76	$2,124.25	$2,201.29	($6,841)	($20,525)	($34,208)	($41,050)	($68,417)

9.00%	$804.62	$2,329.38	$2,413.87	($9,303)	($27,910)	($46,517)	($55,820)	($93,034)

10.00%	$877.57	$2,540.57	$2,632.71	($11,837)	($35,512)	($59,188)	($71,025)	($118,376)

Even if you make no decision, you really actually HAVE made a decision - or acquiesced to the decisions the market is making for you. If rates drift up to 6%, you will pay $2,179 per year MORE. In short, the longer you delay, the more you pay, all for waiting. The market made that decision for you. I call it the "Procrastination Tax".

Now, if you think rates will go down below 5%, then you get some uplift.

Have rates come down? Do you think they will again? Conventional wisdom is betting against you.

Think about it: at 5%, rates can go only go down a numerical maximum of 5%, but they can go up INFINITELY!!! Though unrealistic that they would go up infinitely, it is more probable that an upward change would occur rather than a downward change.

BUT, that isn't the only cost of waiting.

You also have the cost of lost appreciation, too!


	*Price*	Appreciation Rate *	*1 Yr Appreciation*	*5 Yr Appreciation*	*10 Yr Appreciation*
Current Home	$200,000	3.79%	$207,571.43	$240,834.05	$290,005.20

Future Home	$300,000	3.79%	$311,357.14	$361,251.07	$435,007.80

Lost Annual Appreciation Opportunity			$3,785.71	$20,417.02



* Appreciation Rate Uses Case Schiller Index Change of 26.5% from 2000-2007

You can lose on the front end with interest rate changes and on the back end with missed appreciation opportunity.

So, if you waited one year to pull the trigger on:

•1. A $300k home

•2. With an FHA loan (3.5% down)

•3. And saw rates go from 5.0% to 6.0% and

•4. Held onto the $300k home for 10 years,

How much Procrastination Tax did you just pay?

Incremental payments due to interest rate change (year 1 to year 10): $21,792
Lost appreciation (you only lose the 1 year of waiting, assuming prices stay relatively the same on both homes): $3,786
- Remember, 3.79% is a fairly low appreciation rate for Denver and is only indicative of the years prior to the mortgage crisis, not the next 5; the historical, national average is over 5%.
Total incremental cost of ownership caused by delayed decision: $25,578 or 8.53% of the $300k home price (new home). That's the cost of your "Procrastination Tax".

So, consider this my $25,578 gift to you, but it's only good if you use it. So, knowing me just made you $25,578 - how many other folks have done that for you today?

Denver Market Conditions - June 2009

Michael Clarkson (Mile High Home Hunter Realty) — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 01:21:06 -0500

Market Conditions - June 2009

In June, the national unemployment rate reached 9.4%. That is the 2^nd highest it's ever been since statistics have been tracked consistently, starting in January 1948. The five most recent highs have been:

•1. 10.8% - November and December 1982

•2. 9.4% - May 2009

•3. 9.0% - May 1975

•4. 7.9% - October 1949

•5. 7.8% - July 1976, November 1976, July 1980, June 1992

While that is a high number - one which was not expected to be hit, we have come back from similar - and worse - unemployment.

Despite that news, Denver's real estate market was substantially improved over most of the rest of the country. Remembering that 6 months is the tipping point between Seller's markets (below 6 months) and Buyer's markets (above 6 months), here is how Denver is faring:

•· Nationwide - 10.2 months of inventory

•· Denver - 5.71 months of inventory

Denver's sub-markets by price were the following:

•· $0- $200k (up to the median price) or 50% of the market - 2.4 months of inventory (strong seller market)

•· $200k to $400k (median to the $100k annual qualifier) or 50% to 88% of the market - 5.6 months of inventory (seller market)

•· $400k to $1m - 13.8 months of inventory (heavy buyer market)

•· $1m and up - 43.3 months of inventory (fuhgeddaboutit! You're holding on to this home for a LONG time)

So, 88% of our addressable market is seller to strong seller market and remaining firm to firming.

Listings are static at 20,734. This has not materially changed since January and has been nearly exactly the same for three straight months. The 5 years' average is 26,366 listings, meaning listings were down 21.4%.

Sold listings were 3,628. Though up from last month, the 5 years' average is 4,702, meaning 22.8% fewer homes were sold. However, this drop in sales appears to somewhat coincide with approximately 2,900 homes under contract for more than one month, which are still yet to close. Including those, the Denver market approaches more historical sales levels. Nevertheless, despite these pending contracts, Denver continues to be a strong market and will be measurably stronger when those close.

As a result of this market strength, prices are moving up.

•· Median sold price - $220k up from $210k last month

•· Average sold price - $262k up from $254.4k last month

•· As a result of high end homes listing, but not selling, the average list price was $538k up from $532.5k last month. The lack of high end mortgages precludes them from being sold readily, and increases the risk of higher end foreclosures in the near to intermediate term.

Days on market (DOM) is 105 days.

Overall, the market is strong and improving. However, that is still subject to national macro-economic issues and a restricting lending environment.

I AM DONE WITH REAL ESTATE!!!

Michael Clarkson (Mile High Home Hunter Realty) — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 11:51:52 -0500

I am done with real estate!!!

Yes, you heard me. I am done!

Well, sort of…

I live in Denver, Colorado, recently identified as the #1 recovery market in the country. Mind you, other investor/brokers who see the numbers have been saying that for about 12 months – as I have on my blog. (Way to be on top of the breaking news, media folks.)

I love working with people. However, people right now are scared and they are doing some dumb things – well, things that are borne of being misinformed (by the media) and choosing to remain uninformed despite what I share with them (deliberate ignorance).

Now, I could moan up a storm about how clients suck. They don’t, so I won’t.

I could lament how much banks suck. Even though they DO, I won’t.

Instead, I took some time last month and decided what is best for my business. I came to the conclusion: I no longer can work for others!

I have been working such incredible deals for folks. However, I am incredulous at what appears to be the increasingly chronic stupidity in the market:

Unprofessional brokers who don’t respond

Brokers who are uninformed about the market, either specific to their listing or generally city- or nation-wide

Buyers who are unwilling to get prequalified because they are the “exception to the credit crisis”

Sellers who think their home is the “ONE home worth $50k over market value”

People so invested in their own personal ego-petting that they don’t understand that the $75 item they “won’t budge on” will unlock multiple thousands of equity – never mind, be made up in the first month of payments due to the historically low interest rates.

That people think rates will go lower

That prices will continue to descend

That's compounded by a National Association that is directionless, weak, and unresponsive in the first or second most significant crisis in the history of the association….nothing really material has come from its efforts. (Regrettably, I hear that a lot out there lately.)

So, I am done.

I recently transitioned the last of my listings and have decided to invest full time…in Real Estate. I am referring out leads I generate -- and my website generates about 2-3 per day!

Why? A good friend told me: You make a good living selling real estate, but you make an incredible lifestyle owning it. So, effective June 1, 2009, I am only going to work for my closest friends and associates to whom I previously committed help. AND INVESTING!!!!

This week, I will be sending out 2000 mailers to potential target properties. Statistically, that should mean 10-20 deals for me in just that mailing. And I won’t just earn the commission, I will earn THE WHOLE EQUITY play.

Then, I will sell those flipped through my company as the listing broker.

However, as I am the Seller and the broker, I won’t have to worry about the ego investment of the Seller, because I AM THE SELLER. I will be ahead of price changes in the area. And, I will have something few of us do in this business: A Seller that listens and acts promptly.

I will price to the market (and slightly lower) to make deals move.

There are too many alternatives to bank financing and too many people left to help…and best of all, I don’t earn just a piece of the transaction, I earn THE WHOLE THING!!!!

So, to those of you who sit here and complain. Get out of the business! Leave it to the professionals. Or migrate your business into something more aligned with the realities of today’s market.

Most importantly, you will do your clients, the industry, and, most importantly, yourself a huge favor in the process!

Rembember, they ain't making any more dirt, so it's time to accumulate it while you're living on top of it instead of buried beneath it!

Seriously, folks, if you are only selling now, and not investing, you are doing yourself a huge disservice.

Kind regards,

Michael Clarkson

Still selling his own vis www.MileHighHomeHunter.com

And investing at www.CashPathRealEstate.com

Test Blog

Michael Clarkson (Mile High Home Hunter Realty) — Thu, 28 May 2009 22:25:53 -0500

If your real estate broker said:

This home is $200,000, plus or minus $140,000
This home has 4 bedrooms, plus or minus 2.5 bedrooms
This home is 2000 square feet, plus or minus 1400 square feet

Chances are, you might think that your real estate broker "never left Woodstock", and, then make the decision to find your own way back to the real estate office.

Well, it's ironic. Why?
Because the same appropriate doubt one would have with regard to the above is totally dismissed when put on the evening news.
I hear you saying: "What does that mean?" The Denver Business Journal published the annual report from RealtyTrac yesterday (source: http://denver.bizjournals.com/denver/stories/2009/01/12/daily48.html ), January 15, 2009. RealtyTrac Inc (www.RealtyTrac.com ) is a leading online marketplace for foreclosure properties, and one of the fastest-growing real estate sites on the Internet. RealtyTrac is often quoted in the media.
In that story, the following was noted, "In the past, state officials have disputed Colorado's high position in RealtyTrac's rankings, saying that because the state's public trustees report foreclosures at multiple stages of the process, RealtyTrac may overcount Colorado foreclosures. RealtyTrac officials have denied this, saying they have taken steps to ensure accurate counts." (Kudos to the DBJ for that notation.) Well, that's great to hear, but by how much? How about 70% inaccurate? Yes, OVER 70% inaccurate. Here are the citations for my statements:
Sources:

Colorado Public Trustee's Website - http://www.e-ccta.org/Forms/Public%20Trustee/Sale%20Sats/2008%20foreclosures.htm
RealtyTrac Press Release (dated 1/15/09) - http://www.realtytrac.com/ContentManagement/pressrelease.aspx?ChannelID=9&ItemID=5681&accnt=64847
Denver Business Journal -
http://denver.bizjournals.com/denver/stories/2009/01/12/daily48.html?t=printable

Public Trustees are the folks that begin a foreclosure and close out a foreclosure.

Getting foreclosed? You will hear from the Public Trustee. So, one would think their data is the REAL AND ONLY DATA. Right? It has to be. They implement the Foreclosure Laws in Colorado. Let's see how RealtyTrac deviates from the Colorado Public Trustee Association.
Foreclosures Actions Opened
                                                                              2007          2008          Change      % Change Colorado Public Trustees Association (CPTA)                            39,607       38,450           (1,157)          -2.92%

RealtyTrac                                          71,149      66,795           (4,354)           -6.12%

Overstatement/(Understatement) by RealtyTrac                                     31,542      28,345

% Difference - Overstated/(Understated)                    79.64%     73.72%

Foreclosures Completed (in Colorado, known as a Public Trustee Sale)
                                                                                        2007          2008          Change         % Change Colorado Public Trustees Association (CPTA)                            24,929       20,825            (4,104)             -16.46%

RealtyTrac                                         39,403        50,396           10,993               27.90%

Overstatement/(Understatement) by RealtyTrac                                    14,474        29,571

% Difference - Overstated/(Understated)                   58.06%     142.00%

Citations (via hyperlink):
CPTA - 2007
CPTA -2008
RealtyTrac - 2007
RealtyTrac - 2008
So, let's get this straight:

Colorado Public Trustees (the folks doing the foreclosures) - show foreclosures are down 17%
RealtyTrac (the company that has a vested interest in hyping foreclosures) says they are up 27.9%

Who do you believe?

Compounding this is the following regarding completed foreclosures:

2007 - Overstated by RealtyTrac by 58%
2008 - Overstated by RealtyTrac by 142%

When putting the corrected numbers into a national context, the following revised ranking is found for Colorado.

Foreclosure Rank

2007 2008 Change

Colorado Public Trustees Association (CPTA)                                  15             23              ( 8 )
RealtyTrac                                                 5               5                0
Please remember that this revised ranking is ASSUMING that RealtyTrac's numbers for the 49 other states and the District of Columbia is accurate. As noted, that is not a given.
Congratulations to the Denver Business Journal for noting that accuracy controversy in their article. CONGRATULATIONS, COLORADO! You are not number 5 in 2008. You are #23. So, why do I do this? I wonder aloud: How many homeowners have lost equity due to the inaccurate reporting? For continued updates, sign up for my eNewsletter at http://www.milehighhomehunter.com/contact.html or read the latest at my blog at www.TheHomeHunterBlog.com .

"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." - Churchill Want The Latest Real Estate News? -- Contact me get automated updates for your home, neighborhood or a neighborhood where you are looking to purchase    Click Here To See My New Real Estate Video News Channel!

Denver is "ON FIRE" -- as long as you are in the 88% of the folks making less than $100k

Michael Clarkson (Mile High Home Hunter Realty) — Thu, 28 May 2009 21:58:41 -0500

This is a test blog entry for the launch of the blog.

Denver is "ON FIRE" -- as long as you are in the 88% of the folks making less than $100k

Michael Clarkson (Mile High Home Hunter Realty) — Fri, 22 May 2009 20:29:04 -0500

See more here: Denver Market Statistics

Some interesting points:

Unemployment:

National - 8.5% (up 0.4%) - the highest since 1983.
Colorado - 7.2% (up 0.6%) - the highest since 1988.
Denver - 7.9% (up 0.5%)

Months of Housing Inventory is DOWN SHARPLY (good thing for prices), meaning a trend toward a Seller Market.

Seasonalized (taking into the seasaonality of the Denver's market sales 60% April - September; 40% October - March) - 5.35 Months of Inventory - Seller Market
Unseasonalized (taking only the current month demand into account) - 6.43 Months of Inventory - Neutral Market
A well balanced market is 6 Months of Inventory

Days on Market

106 Days - For all markets, Single Family Homes & Condos. It was the first time in recent memory where all markets converged for this metric.
Days on Market were relatively stable for Single Family Homes, and Condo Days on Market is down from 118 Days this time last year.

Housing markets in Denver are increasingly stratified by price segment:

$0 - $200k (median price in Denver) 2.6 Months of Inventory - STRONG SELLER MARKET
$200k - $400k - (median price to roughly about the $100k qualifying buyer) 5.1 Months of Inventory - SELLER MARKET
$400k - $1m - ($100k qualifying buyer to the sub-luxury market) 12.4 Months of Inventory - STRONG BUYER MARKET
$1m and above - (the luxury market) 37.1 Months of Inventory - FUHGEDDABOUDIT (By the way, that's not an official real estate term.)
In fact, you heard about that story on KMGH 7News this past week. (See story here: http://www.thedenverchannel.com/money/19134459/detail.html )

However, if you have been a reader of my blogs for the past year, you KNEW about this trend (and others) for over a year:

The diverging market addressed only this week by Channel 7. But here is what you heard about this market for the past year:

November 2, 2008 - http://milehighhomehunter.blogspot.com/2008/11/denver-market-statistics.html

A lower end market housing shortage (meaning that lower priced homes were flying off the shelf):

July 28, 2008 - http://milehighhomehunter.blogspot.com/2008/07/news-from-mile-high-home-hunter.html

Paying the "Procrastination Tax" - Talks about why you shouldn't try to time the market like a stock

May 14, 2008 - http://milehighhomehunter.blogspot.com/2008/05/daily-dirt-real-estate-news-update-from_9798.html

This one also speaks to the errors in RealtyTrac showing Denver was NEVER a #1 state for foreclosures - and it cost you!!!

Listing inventory is at a 5 year low at 20.628 homes

Down 25% from the recent peak in 2006
Down 19% from 2008

Sold homes are at a 5 year low at 3,206 homes.

Down 30.3% from the recent peak in 2005
Down 13.5% from 2008

The percentage of homes under contract - waiting to close - which normally averages at 127.8%, stayed high at 150.5%. In short, for 100 homes sold, 150.5 were waiting to sell. This is consistent with prior years' activity for this time of the year.

This percentage is a great leading indicator of the market. In short, it's the window into anticipated activity in the market one to two months out.

Prices are rebounding convincingly:

Average sold price - $251,583, up from $236,920 in February - up 5.8%
Median sold price - $203,950, up from $192,500 in February (Median is the point at which 50% of the market sells above that price and 50% sells below that price) - up 5.6%

If you have any questions, give me a call.

Denver is "ON FIRE" -- as long as you are in the 88% of the folks making less than $100k

Michael Clarkson (Mile High Home Hunter Realty) — Sun, 12 Apr 2009 19:47:18 -0500

See more here: Denver Market Statistics

Some interesting points:

Unemployment:

National - 8.5% (up 0.4%) - the highest since 1983.
Colorado - 7.2% (up 0.6%) - the highest since 1988.
Denver - 7.9% (up 0.5%)

Months of Housing Inventory is DOWN SHARPLY (good thing for prices), meaning a trend toward a Seller Market.

Seasonalized (taking into the seasaonality of the Denver's market sales 60% April - September; 40% October - March) - 5.35 Months of Inventory - Seller Market
Unseasonalized (taking only the current month demand into account) - 6.43 Months of Inventory - Neutral Market
A well balanced market is 6 Months of Inventory

Days on Market

106 Days - For all markets, Single Family Homes & Condos. It was the first time in recent memory where all markets converged for this metric.
Days on Market were relatively stable for Single Family Homes, and Condo Days on Market is down from 118 Days this time last year.

Housing markets in Denver are increasingly stratified by price segment:

$0 - $200k (median price in Denver) 2.6 Months of Inventory - STRONG SELLER MARKET
$200k - $400k - (median price to roughly about the $100k qualifying buyer) 5.1 Months of Inventory - SELLER MARKET
$400k - $1m - ($100k qualifying buyer to the sub-luxury market) 12.4 Months of Inventory - STRONG BUYER MARKET
$1m and above - (the luxury market) 37.1 Months of Inventory - FUHGEDDABOUDIT (By the way, that's not an official real estate term.)
In fact, you heard about that story on KMGH 7News this past week. (See story here: http://www.thedenverchannel.com/money/19134459/detail.html )

However, if you have been a reader of my blogs for the past year, you KNEW about this trend (and others) for over a year:

The diverging market addressed only this week by Channel 7. But here is what you heard about this market for the past year:

November 2, 2008 - http://milehighhomehunter.blogspot.com/2008/11/denver-market-statistics.html

A lower end market housing shortage (meaning that lower priced homes were flying off the shelf):

July 28, 2008 - http://milehighhomehunter.blogspot.com/2008/07/news-from-mile-high-home-hunter.html

Paying the "Procrastination Tax" - Talks about why you shouldn't try to time the market like a stock

May 14, 2008 - http://milehighhomehunter.blogspot.com/2008/05/daily-dirt-real-estate-news-update-from_9798.html

This one also speaks to the errors in RealtyTrac showing Denver was NEVER a #1 state for foreclosures - and it cost you!!!

Listing inventory is at a 5 year low at 20.628 homes

Down 25% from the recent peak in 2006
Down 19% from 2008

Sold homes are at a 5 year low at 3,206 homes.

Down 30.3% from the recent peak in 2005
Down 13.5% from 2008

This percentage is a great leading indicator of the market. In short, it's the window into anticipated activity in the market one to two months out.

Prices are rebounding convincingly:

Average sold price - $251,583, up from $236,920 in February - up 5.8%
Median sold price - $203,950, up from $192,500 in February (Median is the point at which 50% of the market sells above that price and 50% sells below that price) - up 5.6%

If you have any questions, give me a call.

Short Sales - Where does a broker's obligation end? Does it go on ad infinitum?

Michael Clarkson (Mile High Home Hunter Realty) — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 13:04:06 -0600

I recently had a dialogue with a fellow professional about short sales. In that discussion, there seemed to be a difference of perspective about just what the role of a broker is. I am interested in your thoughts of whether I am being too extreme or narrowly focused in my definitions of a broker's scope of work/practice.

Short question: Should a broker take on cleaning a home on behalf of a client (or cater/dog sit/help move/tend yard/paint/fix things, etc) or should a broker inform their party as to their obligations verbally and in writing and leave it to the parties to discharge their contract?

My position is the latter: A broker should inform their party as to their obligations verbally and in writing and then encourage them to discharge their contract. (But NOT take ownership of it.)

The other broker shared a story about how the sellers (again, a short sale) left a home unclean with two pick-up's worth of trash, which caused distress for the buyer (understandably). The story then spoke to the brow beating it took get the listing broker to clean the home for the sellers. NOT the sellers, the listing broker.

I was FLOORED. When is it the broker's responsibility to clean a house?!?!?

Permit me to share my response...your input would be appreciated. (Additions made for clarity due this being extracted from a larger context are bracketed thusly [ inclusion ] . )

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I disagree with you: It's [cleaning/removing debris from the home] not any moral obligation [of the listing broker]...at all!!! (Maybe of the seller's, but not the broker's.)

I would say that if you didn't inform your buyers about what happens during short sales - though I suspect you did - then you didn't do your job. That would be your moral obligation. I suspect the crying [of the buyer] was related to the stress of the event, not the "surprise" about the condition.

With regard to [a proposal to establish a practive of requiring] a Seller's "earnest money" [as liquidated damages], they do in Colorado. If the Seller defeats the contract with a ready, willing and able buyer, the sellers owe the commission. Also, they expose themselves to "specific performance" litigation from the buyer -- though highly unlikely, particularly on a short sale. ( As I tell all my clients, "I only play a lawyer on TV, consult a real lawyer to get specific legal advice as it relates to this transaction".)

Also, they risk a foreclosure vs a short sale on their credit report, or, alternatively, a lost time-value of money if a positive balance remains from the equity in the home.

In my short sales, I secure a non-recourse clause in the short sale agreement so there is some more seller skin in the game to "get er done". If you aren't, are you REALLY doing the seller any good vs a foreclosure?

Second, who's kidding who? Just in terms of Realtors, there are about 1.2 million of us, excluding the non-Realtor brokers. (In Denver and Northern Colorado, one not need be a Realtor to use the MLS. ) [This related to garnering a bad reputation in the local board for not making sure the home was clean.]

So, let's say there are 1.5 million practicioners nationally. Do you really think reputations - except for the top 2% or bottom 2% - really get around?

I mean we have brokers who were involved in crime syndicates of mortgage fraud here in Denver (and likely [other broker's town] too) and were INDICTED, CONVICTED AND ARE SERVING TIME. Ask 500 random brokers in Denver: Who would be able to name them? Probably 1 or 2 could of the 500 asked. So, please, an uncleaned house is not going to park on someone's radar! Who ya' kiddin?

Besides, if your buyer/seller says "take their contract" [when informed about how a prior home was not left clean], what position are you in except to share your prior experience, which the clients (appropriately) consider your problem anyhow -- which is likely related to the party to the contract and not the broker. For you to state differently is to do so from an uninformed perspective...you are just ASSUMING it was the broker's fault. The sellers could be the long, lost cousins of Charles Manson, for all you know. Seriously. [The story related, in my opinion, to the listing broker not 'enforcing' that the short sale home be cleaned by the sellers for the buyers.]

Thirdly, I agree that professionalism is a benefit to your client. It's also a key to remaining in business and growing. However, if you are a professional, you "Don't do what is needed". You do what you are contracted to do to the best of your ability.You do what is the "highest and best use" of your time.

We are not painters, therapists, caterers, cleaners, etc. Every minute you are not doing what your skills demand in the marketplace, you advantage your competition. I mean, while you're cleaning a home, your competition is marketing and getting a listing...unless a listing isn't important to you.

We are marketers. We are (in Colorado) folks are able to perform a very limited scope of law as it relates to the Colorado Real Estate Commission approved contracts. (That relates to a decision called Conway-Bogue.) We are resources for lender referrals, craftsmen/craftswomen, movers, etc. We are knowledgeable about our neighborhoods and endeavor to ensure that an open and transparent contract takes place comporting with our state laws and highest and best practices.

We should know what the months of inventory are locally. We should know what paired sales analysis is...and do one to determine value in residential sales. We should know what sells are in any given area. We should know and counsel folks about the incremental challenges of buying a short sale.

I accuse those who muddy those professional waters with all the non-broker activities [cleaning, repairing, vacuuming, etc] are more the problem than those who were like the broker on the listing side of the transaction above.

It's this "Dump all your problems on me" attitude that empowers the public to do JUST THAT. Do you not get the number of lawsuits that stem from a broker taking on liabilities beyond that which they are licensed to do? Activities which your E&O Insurance do not cover.

I mean, selling a home is not life and death. It is a BUSINESS transaction.

The only home related emergency I know of is if it's burning to the ground. In which case, call 9-1-1.

We, as a business, get an immeasurable amount of ego-petting from feeling like the center of the universe for a defined period of time. We call ourselves "experts, [additional comments redacted] and any myriad of self-congratulatory accolades. Hell, I call myself the "Mile High Home Hunter", though I would claim that is more descriptive than self-congratulatory.

Because of that, we act like we have big, red "S"'s on our chests. We are not supermen/women. We are professionals.

If you have unfulfilled inclusion needs or self-esteem issues -- talk to a therapist. However, if you are running this like a business, run it like a business.

Yes, it is sometimes a dollars and cents decision to step up. However, that's not been ANY of the responses I read. It's all been about feelings, love, tenderness, happiness, kumbaya... If you want love, get a dog. A dog will make you feel like the center of its world, much cheaper. I prefer to get my love from my family.

Hey, want to market and sell your home? Call a Realtor. [This is my example of an elevator speech that all should have to understand the value they bring to a client -- value exceeding cleaning, vacuuming or repairing a home.] I will bring my entire suite of professional background, which includes:

An MBA
20 years in Global Sales Experience
A strong reputation for knowing the market which has had me featured on 3 of Denver's highest rated radio stations, the Denver Post, the Denver Business Journal and Realtor magazine. (See my own self-congratulation there.)
Three of the world's top rated websites: www.MileHighHomeHunter.com and www.MileHighForeclosure.com and www.TheHomeHunterBlog.com (which are in the top 1% of websites worldwide according to Alexa.com). They are ranked in the top 800k to 1m or so out of about 130m website worldwide. (More self-congratulation - I am not immune.)
- This means folks permitted into my sphere get one of the top 3 or 4 websites for Colorado Real Estate, and get tons of view on my website.
Strong contracting and negotiating skills
A thorough knowledge of the laws, practices and markets in which I work.
A database of referrals to work the niche that is best suited to my client's needs -- which means I refer deals, even if I really want the whole transaction. I won't transact something that isn't in my wheelhouse; my ego is not that invested in the deal.
A deep resource bench of attorneys, tax people, lenders, craftsmen/craftswomen to support my clients.

That's what my clients get. Not Superman. A professional.

That's been the focus of my response and my source of incredulity in this thread. We are not of value because we are supermen/women; we are of value because we are a focal point for professional resources.

Don't dilute it by kidding yourself that cleaning a home makes one a better broker. It doesn't. It devalues oneself.

Sorry, this was so long. [Response ends]

------------------------------------

That is the response I wrote.

So, am I wrong? Or am I right?

If I am wrong, you believe that brokers are accountable to pick up the slack when sellers and buyers do not..

If I am right, then you believe it's the sellers and buyers contract and the specifics are for THOSE parties to complete.

I really would like your input.

Michael Clarkson

Media Malpractice - Did I Miss How to Report Truthfully in School?

Michael Clarkson (Mile High Home Hunter Realty) — Wed, 25 Feb 2009 17:23:35 -0600

Every month, I put together the "Mile High Stats" from MetroList in Denver. You can see those charts here. http://images.agentcenter.com/client/4/3/9/23934/2009.01_Blog_Information_Word_2003.pdf

The first chart is something that is the MOST important for the entire group of readers. Though nobody knows the future, I am disgusted - yes, disgusted - with the fear of the unknown and the lack of economic insight offered by the media.

The first chart relates to the unemployment rate in the US since 1948 -- 60+ years. The chart shows how unemployment seems to peak around 8.0%. Given how dire prognostications have been, this time it might be higher. However, this IS NOT the GREAT DEPRESSION. Nor is it even close.

Now, I am an MBA with corporate background, but I don't do econometric modeling for a living. I sell residential real estate. However, no matter how dire the news in 1975, 1982, 1992, etc., America is still America.

We are the strongest, most diverse, most pull-up-the-bootstraps and get-it-done country on the planet. Despite how bad things are, our spirits always rise above the adversity. That is what is great about our country! It's why we lead the world in everything we set our minds and hearts to excelling in!

As you will see, that greatness drives America to overcome unemployment as it starts to exceed 8.0% -- pretty much always. The two times it was exceeded were right after Vietnam, as tens of thousands of veterans (for whom we are eternally indebted to them for their service) came back into the employment pool, concurrently with the Oil Embargo. The most recent was when hyperinflation was being choked off in the early 80's and aggressive FED policy was intended to cut off the inflationary, upward spiral.

Though there are some unique aspects to this downturn, there always are unique things about each and every downturn. So, there is nothing new there. So, it is realistic to expect this downturn to be like the majority of those in the past 60 years.

I hope this provides some perspective because it seems the media is lacking it nowadays...and that is a huge disservice to you.

"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." - Churchill

RealtyTrac - Misreporting Numbers? Hurting Colorado for profit?

Michael Clarkson (Mile High Home Hunter Realty) — Wed, 04 Feb 2009 08:30:00 -0600

If your real estate broker said:

•· This home is $200,000, plus or minus $140,000

•· This home has 4 bedrooms, plus or minus 2.5 bedrooms

•· This home is 2000 square feet, plus or minus 1400 square feet

Chances are, you might think that your real estate broker "never left Woodstock", and, then make the decision to find your own way back to the real estate office.

Well, it's ironic. Why?

Because the same appropriate doubt one would have with regard to the above is totally dismissed when put on the evening news.

I hear you saying: "What does he mean?"

Well, in the Denver Business Journal, published the annual report from RealtyTrac yesterday (source: http://denver.bizjournals.com/denver/stories/2009/01/12/daily48.html), January 15, 2009. RealtyTrac Inc (www.realtytrac.com) is the leading online marketplace for foreclosure properties, and one of the fastest-growing real estate sites on the Internet.

In that story, the following was noted, "In the past, state officials have disputed Colorado's high position in RealtyTrac's rankings, saying that because the state's public trustees report foreclosures at multiple stages of the process, RealtyTrac may overcount Colorado foreclosures. RealtyTrac officials have denied this, saying they have taken steps to ensure accurate counts."

Well, that's great to hear, but by how much? How about 70% inaccurate? Yes, OVER 70% inaccurate.

Here are the citations for my statements:

Sources:

•· Colorado Public Trustee's Website - http://www.e-ccta.org/Forms/Public%20Trustee/Sale%20Sats/2008%20foreclosures.htm

•· RealtyTrac Press Release (dated 1/15/09) - http://www.realtytrac.com/ContentManagement/pressrelease.aspx?ChannelID=9&ItemID=5681&accnt=64847

•· http://denver.bizjournals.com/denver/stories/2009/01/12/daily48.html?t=printable

Public Trustees are the folks that begin a foreclosure and close out a foreclosure.

Getting foreclosed? You will hear from the Public Trustee. So, one would think their data is the REAL AND ONLY DATA. Right? It has to be. They implement the Foreclosure Laws in Colorado.

So, let's see how RealtyTrac deviates from the Colorado Public Trustee Association.

*Foreclosures Actions Opened*
	*2007*	*2008*	*Change*	*% Change*
Colorado Public Trustees Association (CPTA)	39,607	38,450	(1,157)	-2.92%

RealtyTrac	71,149	66,795	(4,354)	-6.12%

Overstatement/(Understatement) by RealtyTrac	31,542	28,345	(3,197)

% Difference - Overstated/(Understated)	79.64%	73.72%


*Foreclosures Completed (in Colorado, known as a Public Trustee Sale)*
	*2007*	*2008*	*Change*	*% Change*
Colorado Public Trustees Association (CPTA)	24,929	20,825	(4,104)	-16.46%

RealtyTrac	39,403	50,396	10,993	27.90%

Overstatement/(Understatement) by RealtyTrac	14,474	29,571	15,097

% Difference - Overstated/(Understated)	58.06%	142.00%


Citations (via hyperlink):
CPTA - 2007
CPTA -2008
RealtyTrac - 2007
RealtyTrac - 2008

So, let's get this straight:

•· Colorado Public Trustees (the folks doing the foreclosures) - show foreclosures are down 17%

•· RealtyTrac (the company that has a vested interest in hyping foreclosures) says they are up 27.9%

Who do you believe?

Compounding this is the following regarding completed foreclosures:

•· 2007 - Overstated by RealtyTrac by 58%

•· 2008 - Overstated by RealtyTrac by 142%

When putting the corrected numbers into a national context, the following revised ranking is found for Colorado.

*Foreclosure Rank*
	*2007*	*2008*	*Ranking Change*
Colorado Public Trustees Association (CPTA)	15	23	( 8 )

RealtyTrac	5	5	0

Please remember that this revised ranking is ASSUMING that RealtyTrac's numbers for the 49 other states and the District of Columbia is accurate. As noted, that is not a given.

Congratulations to the Denver Business Journal for noting that accuracy controversy in their article.

CONGRATULATIONS, COLORADO! You are not number 5 in 2008. You are #23.

So, why do I do this? I wonder aloud: How many homeowners have lost equity due to the inaccurate reporting?

For continued updates, sign up for my eNewsletter at http://www.milehighhomehunter.com/contact.html or read the latest at my blog at www.TheHomeHunterBlog.com.

Denver Market by Locale/City/Market - Mile High Home Hunter Realty

Michael Clarkson (Mile High Home Hunter Realty) — Sun, 30 Nov 2008 21:08:52 -0600

Market Trend Analysis - Denver Metro Selected Towns/Cities

Based on information from Metrolist, Inc. for period September 9, 2008 to October 7, 2008.
Single Family Residences - All Price Levels
Excludes Housing Not Listed in MetroList

Note: Six (5.5 to 6.5) Months of Inventory Tends to Indicate Neutral Market, Over 6.5 Months a Buyer's Market, Under 5.5 Months a Seller's Market
					6
Locale	Active Listings	12 Months Sold	Sold per Month (Avg)	Months Inventory (MOI)	Current Mkt State	Under Contract
Arvada	503	1,358	113.2	4.4	Seller's Market	118
Aurora	1,740	5,145	428.8	4.1	Seller's Market	674
Boulder	152	249	20.8	7.3	Buyer's Market	20
Broomfield	312	718	59.8	5.2	Seller's Market	63
Castle Rock	1,004	1,213	101.1	9.9	Buyer's Market	118
Centennial	444	1,285	107.1	4.1	Seller's Market	108
Commerce City	333	987	82.3	4.0	Seller's Market	161
Denver	3,882	9,799	816.6	4.8	Seller's Market	1,314
Erie	162	315	26.3	6.2	Neutral Market	29
Golden	423	624	52.0	8.1	Buyer's Market	51
Greenwood Village	135	126	10.5	12.9	Buyer's Market	16
Highlands Ranch	437	1,449	120.8	3.6	Seller's Market	97
Lafayette	98	161	13.4	7.3	Buyer's Market	14
Lakewood	504	1,264	105.3	4.8	Seller's Market	145
Littleton	839	2,074	172.8	4.9	Seller's Market	162
Louisville	31	91	7.6	4.1	Seller's Market	3
Northglenn	144	488	40.7	3.5	Seller's Market	56
Parker	794	1,489	124.1	6.4	Neutral Market	161
Superior	33	105	8.8	3.8	Seller's Market	7
Thornton	497	1,900	158.3	3.1	Seller's Market	198
Westminster	443	1,282	106.8	4.1	Seller's Market	144
Wheat Ridge	120	332	27.7	4.3	Seller's Market	22

Total of Selected Towns & Locales	13,030	32,454	2,704.5	4.8	Seller's Market	3,681

Total MetroList*	17,842	xx	3,386	5.3	Seller's Market	3,649
* Single Family Residences Only

http://www.MileHighHomeHunter.com
http://www.MileHighForeclosure.com
http://www.CashPathRealEstate.com
http://www.DenverHomesRealty.com


Note: This representation is based in whole or in part on content supplied by Metrolist, Inc. Metrolist, Inc. does not guarantee nor is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Content maintained by Metrolist, Inc. may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.

Denver Market by Price Point - Mile High Home Hunter Realty

Michael Clarkson (Mile High Home Hunter Realty) — Sun, 16 Nov 2008 12:31:30 -0600

Market Trend Analysis - Denver Metro Selected Towns/Cities
Based on information from Metrolist, Inc. for period from Octoboer 7, 2008 to November 6, 2008
Single Family Residences - All Price Levels
Excludes Housing Not Listed in MetroList

Note: Six (5.5 to 6.5) Months of Inventory Tends to Indicate Neutral Market, Over 6.5 Months a Buyer's Market, Under 5.5 Months a Seller's Market

(How Calculated)		A		B	C = B/12	D = A/C		E
Price Range		Active	% of Market	Sold in Past 12 Months	Sold Per Month	Months of Inventory	Current Activity Status	Curr Month Under Contract	Near Term Sales Trend
$ -	$ 100,000	798	4.35%	4,633	386	2.07	Seller's Market	818	Seller's Trend
$ 100,001	$ 200,000	3,604	19.65%	11,646	971	3.71	Seller's Market	1,721	Seller's Trend
$ 200,001	$ 300,000	4,028	21.97%	10,632	886	4.55	Seller's Market	996	Seller's Trend
$ 300,001	$ 400,000	2,809	15.32%	5,215	435	6.46	Neutral Market	458	Seller's Trend
$ 400,001	$ 500,000	1,866	10.18%	2,485	207	9.01	Buyer's Market	225	Seller's Trend
$ 500,001	$ 600,000	1,178	6.42%	1,263	105	11.19	Buyer's Market	95	Buyer's Trend
$ 600,001	$ 700,000	900	4.91%	681	57	15.86	Buyer's Market	59	Seller's Trend
$ 700,001	$ 800,000	649	3.54%	421	35	18.50	Buyer's Market	44	Seller's Trend
$ 800,001	$ 900,000	469	2.56%	298	25	18.89	Buyer's Market	30	Seller's Trend
$ 900,001	$ 1,000,000	387	2.11%	177	15	26.24	Buyer's Market	31	Seller's Trend
$ 1,000,001	No Upper Boundary	1,649	8.99%	598	50	33.09	Buyer's Market	54	Seller's Trend

Total (Seasonally Adjusted)*		18,337	100.00%	38,049	3,171	5.78	Neutral Market	4,531	Seller's Trend

Total (NOT Seasonally Adjusted)**		17,842	xx	xx	3,386	5.27	Seller's Market	3,649	Seller's Trend

http://www.MileHighHomeHunter.com
http://www.MileHighForeclosure.com
http://www.HomeHunterBlog.com/
http://www.CashPathRealEstate.com

Note: This representation is based in whole or in part on content supplied by Metrolist, Inc. Metrolist, Inc. does not guarantee nor is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Content maintained by Metrolist, Inc. may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.

* Uses 12-trailing months' average to smooth out the effects of Denver's purchase season (60% Apr - Sep; 40% Oct - Mar).
** Uses raw data to show the impact of current levels of purchases on current levels of supply. This causes substantial seasonal swings in months of inventory. MetroList cutoff date may likely differ from date of data shown above.

Denver Market by Price Point - Mile High Home Hunter Realty

Michael Clarkson (Mile High Home Hunter Realty) — Fri, 17 Oct 2008 19:04:24 -0500

Market Trend Analysis - Denver Metro Selected Towns/Cities
Based on information from Metrolist, Inc. for period August 7, 2008 to September 9, 2008.
Single Family Residences - All Price Levels
Excludes Housing Not Listed in MetroList

Note: Six (5.5 to 6.5) Months of Inventory Tends to Indicate Neutral Market, Over 6.5 Months a Buyer's Market, Under 5.5 Months a Seller's Market

(How Calculated)		A		B	C = B/12	D = A/C		E		F = A/E
Price Range		Active	% of Market	Sold in Past 12 Months	Sold Per Month	Months of Inventory	Current Activity Status	Curr Month Under Contract	Near Term Sales Trend	Months of Inventory if Current Month Activity Level Continues
$ -	$ 100,000	825	4.17%	4,055	338	2.4	Seller's Market	919	Seller's Trend	0.9
$ 100,001	$ 200,000	3,764	19.03%	11,267	939	4.0	Seller's Market	1,997	Seller's Trend	1.9
$ 200,001	$ 300,000	4,432	22.41%	10,668	889	5.0	Seller's Market	1,377	Seller's Trend	3.2
$ 300,001	$ 400,000	3,043	15.38%	5,300	442	6.9	Buyer's Market	683	Seller's Trend	4.5
$ 400,001	$ 500,000	2,104	10.64%	2,455	205	10.3	Buyer's Market	336	Seller's Trend	6.3
$ 500,001	$ 600,000	1,284	6.49%	1,294	108	11.9	Buyer's Market	144	Seller's Trend	8.9
$ 600,001	$ 700,000	956	4.83%	707	59	16.2	Buyer's Market	78	Seller's Trend	12.3
$ 700,001	$ 800,000	678	3.43%	423	35	19.2	Buyer's Market	71	Seller's Trend	9.5
$ 800,001	$ 900,000	510	2.58%	310	26	19.7	Buyer's Market	36	Seller's Trend	14.2
$ 900,001	$ 1,000,000	443	2.24%	183	15	29.0	Buyer's Market	24	Seller's Trend	18.5
$ 1,000,001	No Upper Boundary	1,742	8.81%	632	53	33.1	Buyer's Market	76	Seller's Trend	22.9

Total (Seasonally Adjusted)*		19,781	100.00%	37,294	3,108	6.4	Neutral Market	5,741	Seller's Trend	3.4

Total (NOT Seasonally Adjusted)**		19,050	xx	xx	3,581	5.3	Seller's Market	4,443	Seller's Trend	4.3

http://www.MileHighHomeHunter.com
http://www.MileHighForeclosure.com
http://www.MileHighMLS.com
http://www.CashPathRealEstate.com

Note: This representation is based in whole or in part on content supplied by Metrolist, Inc. Metrolist, Inc. does not guarantee nor is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Content maintained by Metrolist, Inc. may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.

* Uses 12-trailing months' average to smooth out the effects of Denver's purchase season (60% Apr - Sep; 40% Oct - Mar).
** Uses raw data to show the impact of current levels of purchases on current levels of supply. This causes substantial seasonal swings in months of inventory. MetroList cutoff date may likely differ from date of data shown above.

Denver Market by Locale/City/Market - Mile High Home Hunter Realty

Michael Clarkson (Mile High Home Hunter Realty) — Fri, 17 Oct 2008 18:54:09 -0500

Market Trend Analysis - Denver Metro Selected Towns/Cities

Based on information from Metrolist, Inc. for period August 7, 2008 to September 9, 2008.
Single Family Residences - All Price Levels
Excludes Housing Not Listed in MetroList

Note: Six (5.5 to 6.5) Months of Inventory Tends to Indicate Neutral Market, Over 6.5 Months a Buyer's Market, Under 5.5 Months a Seller's Market
					6
Locale	Active Listings	12 Months Sold	Sold per Month (Avg)	Months Inventory (MOI)	Current Mkt State	Under Contract
Arvada	522	1,339	111.6	4.7	Seller's Market	172
Aurora	1,922	4,952	412.7	4.7	Seller's Market	832
Boulder	154	260	21.7	7.1	Buyer's Market	30
Broomfield	340	732	61.0	5.6	Neutral Market	103
Castle Rock	1,108	1,199	99.9	11.1	Buyer's Market	146
Centennial	515	1,249	104.1	4.9	Seller's Market	163
Commerce City	378	882	73.5	5.1	Seller's Market	193
Denver	4,274	9,262	771.8	5.5	Neutral Market	1,598
Erie	166	313	26.1	6.4	Neutral Market	37
Golden	513	611	50.9	10.1	Buyer's Market	82
Greenwood Village	145	120	10.0	14.5	Buyer's Market	15
Highlands Ranch	484	1,325	110.4	4.4	Seller's Market	190
Lafayette	95	161	13.4	7.1	Buyer's Market	16
Lakewood	556	1,254	104.5	5.3	Seller's Market	192
Littleton	971	2,185	182.1	5.3	Seller's Market	235
Louisville	30	93	7.8	3.9	Seller's Market	8
Northglenn	128	443	36.9	3.5	Seller's Market	82
Parker	881	1,448	120.7	7.3	Buyer's Market	220
Superior	30	111	9.3	3.2	Seller's Market	9
Thornton	526	1,795	149.6	3.5	Seller's Market	312
Westminster	552	1,246	103.8	5.3	Seller's Market	173
Wheat Ridge	133	315	26.3	5.1	Seller's Market	41

Total of Selected Towns & Locales	14,423	31,295	2,607.9	5.5	Neutral Market	4,849

Total MetroList*	19,050	xx	3,581	5.3	Seller's Market	4,443
* Single Family Residences Only

http://www.MileHighHomeHunter.com
http://www.MileHighForeclosure.com
http://www.CashPathRealEstate.com
http://www.DenverHomesRealty.com


Note: This representation is based in whole or in part on content supplied by Metrolist, Inc. Metrolist, Inc. does not guarantee nor is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Content maintained by Metrolist, Inc. may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.

Denver Market by Locale/City/Market - Mile High Home Hunter Realty

Michael Clarkson (Mile High Home Hunter Realty) — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 20:58:27 -0500

Market Trend Analysis - Denver Metro Selected Towns/Cities

Based on information from Metrolist, Inc. for period August 7, 2008 to September 9, 2008.
Single Family Residences - All Price Levels
Excludes Housing Not Listed in MetroList

Note: Six (5.5 to 6.5) Months of Inventory Tends to Indicate Neutral Market, Over 6.5 Months a Buyer's Market, Under 5.5 Months a Seller's Market
					6
Locale	Active Listings	12 Months Sold	Sold per Month (Avg)	Months Inventory (MOI)	Current Mkt State	Under Contract
Arvada	522	1,339	111.6	4.7	Seller's Market	172
Aurora	1,922	4,952	412.7	4.7	Seller's Market	832
Boulder	154	260	21.7	7.1	Buyer's Market	30
Broomfield	340	732	61.0	5.6	Neutral Market	103
Castle Rock	1,108	1,199	99.9	11.1	Buyer's Market	146
Centennial	515	1,249	104.1	4.9	Seller's Market	163
Commerce City	378	882	73.5	5.1	Seller's Market	193
Denver	4,274	9,262	771.8	5.5	Neutral Market	1,598
Erie	166	313	26.1	6.4	Neutral Market	37
Golden	513	611	50.9	10.1	Buyer's Market	82
Greenwood Village	145	120	10.0	14.5	Buyer's Market	15
Highlands Ranch	484	1,325	110.4	4.4	Seller's Market	190
Lafayette	95	161	13.4	7.1	Buyer's Market	16
Lakewood	556	1,254	104.5	5.3	Seller's Market	192
Littleton	971	2,185	182.1	5.3	Seller's Market	235
Louisville	30	93	7.8	3.9	Seller's Market	8
Northglenn	128	443	36.9	3.5	Seller's Market	82
Parker	881	1,448	120.7	7.3	Buyer's Market	220
Superior	30	111	9.3	3.2	Seller's Market	9
Thornton	526	1,795	149.6	3.5	Seller's Market	312
Westminster	552	1,246	103.8	5.3	Seller's Market	173
Wheat Ridge	133	315	26.3	5.1	Seller's Market	41

Total of Selected Towns & Locales	14,423	31,295	2,607.9	5.5	Neutral Market	4,849

Total MetroList*	19,050	xx	3,581	5.3	Seller's Market	4,443
* Single Family Residences Only

http://www.MileHighHomeHunter.com
http://www.MileHighForeclosure.com
http://www.CashPathRealEstate.com
http://www.DenverHomesRealty.com


Note: This representation is based in whole or in part on content supplied by Metrolist, Inc. Metrolist, Inc. does not guarantee nor is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Content maintained by Metrolist, Inc. may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.

Denver Market by Price Point - Mile High Home Hunter Realty

Michael Clarkson (Mile High Home Hunter Realty) — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 20:53:16 -0500

Market Trend Analysis - Denver Metro Selected Towns/Cities
Based on information from Metrolist, Inc. for period August 7, 2008 to September 9, 2008.
Single Family Residences - All Price Levels
Excludes Housing Not Listed in MetroList

Note: Six (5.5 to 6.5) Months of Inventory Tends to Indicate Neutral Market, Over 6.5 Months a Buyer's Market, Under 5.5 Months a Seller's Market

(How Calculated)		A		B	C = B/12	D = A/C		E		F = A/E
Price Range		Active	% of Market	Sold in Past 12 Months	Sold Per Month	Months of Inventory	Current Activity Status	Curr Month Under Contract	Near Term Sales Trend	Months of Inventory if Current Month Activity Level Continues
$ -	$ 100,000	825	4.17%	4,055	338	2.4	Seller's Market	919	Seller's Trend	0.9
$ 100,001	$ 200,000	3,764	19.03%	11,267	939	4.0	Seller's Market	1,997	Seller's Trend	1.9
$ 200,001	$ 300,000	4,432	22.41%	10,668	889	5.0	Seller's Market	1,377	Seller's Trend	3.2
$ 300,001	$ 400,000	3,043	15.38%	5,300	442	6.9	Buyer's Market	683	Seller's Trend	4.5
$ 400,001	$ 500,000	2,104	10.64%	2,455	205	10.3	Buyer's Market	336	Seller's Trend	6.3
$ 500,001	$ 600,000	1,284	6.49%	1,294	108	11.9	Buyer's Market	144	Seller's Trend	8.9
$ 600,001	$ 700,000	956	4.83%	707	59	16.2	Buyer's Market	78	Seller's Trend	12.3
$ 700,001	$ 800,000	678	3.43%	423	35	19.2	Buyer's Market	71	Seller's Trend	9.5
$ 800,001	$ 900,000	510	2.58%	310	26	19.7	Buyer's Market	36	Seller's Trend	14.2
$ 900,001	$ 1,000,000	443	2.24%	183	15	29.0	Buyer's Market	24	Seller's Trend	18.5
$ 1,000,001	No Upper Boundary	1,742	8.81%	632	53	33.1	Buyer's Market	76	Seller's Trend	22.9

Total (Seasonally Adjusted)*		19,781	100.00%	37,294	3,108	6.4	Neutral Market	5,741	Seller's Trend	3.4

Total (NOT Seasonally Adjusted)**		19,050	xx	xx	3,581	5.3	Seller's Market	4,443	Seller's Trend	4.3

http://www.MileHighHomeHunter.com
http://www.MileHighForeclosure.com
http://www.DenverHomesRealty.com
http://www.CashPathRealEstate.com

Note: This representation is based in whole or in part on content supplied by Metrolist, Inc. Metrolist, Inc. does not guarantee nor is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Content maintained by Metrolist, Inc. may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.

* Uses 12-trailing months' average to smooth out the effects of Denver's purchase season (60% Apr - Sep; 40% Oct - Mar).
** Uses raw data to show the impact of current levels of purchases on current levels of supply. This causes substantial seasonal swings in months of inventory. MetroList cutoff date may likely differ from date of data shown above.