Phil's Blog

FREDERICTON REAL ESTATE REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER

Phil Booker (Booker Realty) — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 10:52:36 -0600

October posted a negative -18% in listing production for the month of October. This follows a-17% in listing production in the month of September. As bad as this looks it will help correct the overall reduction in sales per month. Thus, keeping the listings to sales ratio relatively at the same spread so we might be able to stay in a prosperity market ( where there as many homes for sale as there are buyers for those homes ) which will help ward off a buyers market. As much as this consistant lose of listings for September and October looks scary it really only amounts to a -7% listing reduction year over year. Because this trend will continue for the rest of the year we will see about a -10% year to year reduction of both listings and sales. This prediction is contrary to this weeks newspaper report which predicts a stronger 2010 market. Although, we will have a relatively good 2010 market I don't see anything strong enough happening in our economy to change my belief that our average dollar production will coninue to decline -10% for 2010. Well, actually this is not so bad as we are riding a boom market this last 10 years so even if we go down 10% in volume we will still be doing just fine.

Sales for October are pleasantly pleasing as they are up 14% over last October. Wow, who would have ever believed that? Our unit sales however are down -3% over last October. Again this is still good in a recessionary market, don't you think? Our year over year production to October is at +2% over last year. Every indication is that November and December should produce about the same. We will see!

To help keep things in perspective lets look at the dollar volume over the last three years. In 2007 October produced $28,829,665, 2008 produced 20,551,809 ( a 29% reduction ), 2009 October produced a 23,399,643 ( a 19% reduction over 2007 ). So you can see that our sales are gradually decreasing from the boom year of 2007. I believe that this trend will continue over the next 5 years where we will probably level out at $20,000,000 months for October.

Well, Folks, you can see we are pleasantly pleased with our year to year volume. The market is still very active and it looks like this trend will continue throughout the rest of the year. There are still some great buys out there so Buyers take note and buy a home for a Christmas present this year. You will be glad you did!!! Interest rates are still at an all time low @ 3.99% as I write this today. Talk to you next month.

FREDERICTON REAL ESTATE MARKET REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER

Phil Booker (Booker Realty) — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 21:23:16 -0500

WELL FOLKS, SEPTEMBER IS UPON US AND THE CRACKS IN OUR PRODUCTION FOR 2009 ARE STARTING TO SHOW. BOTH IN LISTING PRODUCTION AND SALE PRODUCTION. LISTINGS POSTED A -17% REDUCTION FOR SEPTEMBER WHICH WIPES OUT OUR BEAUTIFUL INCREASE 16% IN AUGUST. BUT AGAIN, WE STILL SHOW A VERY CONSISTANT -4% YEAR OVER YEAR REDUCTION FROM LAST YEAR. LOOK FOR A GOOD OCTOBER LISTING FRENZY AND I BELIEVE A CONSISTANT -9% YEAR OVER YEAR BY DECEMBER END.

OUR SALES ON THE OTHER HAND WILL HAVE A MAJOR NEGATIVE CORRECTION IN THE LAST QUARTER OF THIS YEAR. POSSIBLY IN THE -10% TO -15% YEAR OVER YEAR. THIS SAID, SEPTEMBER SURELY ISN'T TOO BAD YET, POSTING A SMALL UNIT REDUCTION OF -9% FOR SEPTEMBER AND A POSITIVE DOLLAR VOLUME OF 1% YEAR OVER YEAR. ACTUALLY, OCTOBER IS NOT LOOKING THAT BAD EITHER AND IT IS EXPECTED TO YIELD A 1% GAIN OVER LAST OCTOBER.

FOLKS ALTHOUGH YEAR TO DATE WE HAVE EXPERIENCED A FANTASTICALLY CONSISTANT BANNER YEAR WE HAVE TO BE REALISTIC AND SEE THAT SUPPLY HAS ALL BUT PAST DEMAND AND THAT WE WILL BE QUICKLY SUBMERGED IN A BUYERS MARKET THIS FALL. THUS SALES WILL BE SLOWED SUBSTANTIALLY AS BUYERS WILL BE EXPECTING A MAJOR REDUCTION IN PURCHASE PRICE WHICH THE VENDORS WILL NOT BE PREPARED TO ACCEPT. IT HAD TO COME SOMETIME SO BE PREPARED TO WORK YOUR DEALS HARD THIS WINTER IN ORDER TO EXACT A SALE TO FRUITION.

AGENTS PREPARE YOURSELF AS THIS BUYERS MARKET THIS FALL WILL HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON YOU INDIVIDUALLY AND YOU WILL SEE MANY OF YOUR FELLOW REAL ESTATE ASSOCIATES LEAVING THE BUSINESS OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS. SORRY, BUT THIS ALWAYS HAPPENS WHEN ONE HAS TO WORK A LOT HARDER THAN YOU WOULD EVER IMAGINE TO EXACT THAT SALE. FOR-WARNED IS FOR-ARMED. I THINK YOU WILL SEE EXACTLY WHAT I AM TALKING ABOUT BY YEAR END. OOHHH BUT I TOO HOPE I AM WRONG!!! DO CHECK MY BLOG AT YEAR END TO SEE AND PLAN TO PLAN, IN WRITING YOUR PRODUCTION GOALS FOR 2010. THIS IS THE ONLY WAY TO BE ASSURED OF YOUR TARGET OBJECTIVES. PREPARE YOURSELF. GOOD LUCK.

FREDERICTON REAL ESTATE MARKET REPORT FOR MONTH OF AUGUST 2009

Phil Booker (Booker Realty) — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 20:18:15 -0500

SURPRISE, SURPRISE! LISTINGS FOR AUGUST HAVE REDUCED A -16% DEFICIT IN JULY TO 0% IN AUGUST. THIS IS AN INDICATION THAT SALES FOR THIS FALL SHOULD BE QUITE STRONG. HOWEVER, MY GUESS IS THAT A STRONG LISTING MONTH OF AUGUST SHOULD BE SHOWING A STRONG CORRECTION IN SEPTEMBER. WE WILL SEE. NEVER THE LESS, OUR YEAR OVER YEAR STATS SHOW A CONSISTANT -4%. NEXT MONTH IT SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME. OUR CURRENT LISTING PORTFOLIO IS STILL 2464 ACTIVE LISTINGS. THIS IS VERY CONSISTANT WITH PREVIOUS YEARS.

OUR SALES UNITS FOR AUGUST DID IN FACT HAVE THE EXPECTED FALL OF -9% FOR AUGUST TO MAKE UP FOR OUR FANTASTIC MONTH OF JULY. THAT'S OKAY AS SALE UNITS YEAR OVER YEAR ARE CONSISTANTLY AT -4%. AGAIN, THE MONTH OF AUGUST IS DOWN -9% IN DOLLAR VOLUME AS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THE YEAR OVER YEAR VOLUME IS UP 2% OVER LAST YEAR. WHICH IS FANTASTIC.

WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE VERY STRONG FREDERICTON MARKET WITH EMPLOYEMENT AT AN ALL TIME HIGH AND PLENTY OF INFRA-STRUCTURE PROJECTS HAPPENING ALL OVER THE PLACE WE CAN FEEL VERY CONFIDENT THAT 2009 IS DOING JUST GREAT.

INTEREST RATES ARE AT AN ALL TIME LOW, SO BUYERS TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE WONDERFUL OPPORTUNITY TO INVEST IN HOME OWNERSHIP. YOU DESERVE IT!!!

FREDERICTON REAL ESTATE MARKET ACTIVITY FOR MONTH OF JULY 2009

Phil Booker (Booker Realty) — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 03:49:43 -0500

Wow! What a fantastic month of July. I Believe the cool weather did us a favour by keeping our consumer buying real estate rather than going to the cottage every weekend. So for that maybe rain is good for something other than watering the flowers? Imagine, 5 days of sunshine in the whole month of July. It never happened before in my lifetime. Enough!!!

July listings are down 16% which hauls the year to year listings down to -5%. This is very consistant with years past. So no big surprises there. However, sales are quite another thing. Unit sales for the month of July have posted a 15% increase over last year. This gives us a year to year total sales to date just down -3%. That's not bad at all. Dollar volume for July is up 25% over last year. Fantastic! So our year over year production in dollar volume is up +3% over last year. That is an amazing surprise, even for me. We have never had a July like this in my 40 years of selling real eatate. Now they are saying that all markets are prone to get even better in the months ahead.Wow! Actually, here I go again. My prediction is that we probably posted most of our August sales during July also, thus sales will likely be down porportionally for the month of August. Sorry, but I just don't see this upward trend holding for the rest of the year.

Never the less, what a beautiful year we are having in the real estate business in Fredericton. Our economy is srong, businesses are booming, construction in the city is off the charts, the city never looked so prosperous. Finally the sun is shining down on us for, hopefully, at least August and maybe even throughout September. So buyers and sellers get out there and take advantage of our low, low interest rates and prosperity market to BUY, BUY, BUY. Cheers, until next month.

FREDERICTON REAL ESTATE MARKET ACTIVITY FOR JUNE 2009

Phil Booker (Booker Realty) — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 05:43:25 -0500

As we expected the month of June has also posted a -3% drop in listing activity, as did May. This will stay quite consistant with last years listing portfolio throughout the rest of this year. No suprises there.

However, we are blown away by the fantastic June production of unit sales which increased from May's -13% to only a -7% in June.The dollar volume did even better increasing from May's -7% to June's +0% for year over year from 2008. This is spectacular in a market that has been increasing consistantly for the past 10 years with no letup in sight. It's fair to say we have a very special city here and a lot of people are recognizing the value of living in a clean, safe and beautiful environment where housing prices are consistantly far below the North American price trend. The young people today have taken a paradigm shift with their family values and what they believe is important to them. Family more than job advancement. Meaning that, yes, less is more, and better. Well, that's my philosophizing for the day.

Consumers, now is the time to capitalize on the most valueable asset you can ever own, your home. Good shopping, be smart and take advantage of these low, low interest rates which will probably not be around for very much longer. Talk to you next month. Consumers look up the definition of the word capitalize and you will act now! Just a thought. Cheers!!!

FREDERICTON REAL ESTATE ACTIVITY FOR MAY 2009

Phil Booker (Booker Realty) — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 04:49:02 -0500

As we continue into Summer and our typical booming sales season things just keep getting better and better! Wow, we are sooo lucky in Fredericton, the city of Stately Elms. What a real estate haven!

Now for the facts. Our listings are averaging only a -3% drop and have been quite consistantly throughout the year. We should expect the same average drop for the rest of the year.

Sales in units has increased year over year from a -15% in April to a -13% for May. This should improve more as we move into June. Our dollar volume of sales has improved substantially year over year from -12% in April to only a -7% in May. That is almost a 50% increase in sales from month to month. The activity now is unprecedented in a global market now in a recession. The real irony is that June even expects to be better.

Housing has become everyones dream and just about eveyone imployed seems to be motivated to aquire that dream. As real estate agents lets help them achieve!

FREDERICTON REAL ESTATE MARKET ACTIVITY FOR APRIL 2009

Phil Booker (Booker Realty) — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 20:52:08 -0500

Well, well, well things are improving as we see the Spring sales getting ever so gradually better and better. This is so typical of the Fredericton Market where each month from January to June we see gradual improvement quite consistantly year after year.

We can readily see that April sales volume has improved from a -16% in March to a -12% in April. Unit sales have increased from a -20% in March to a -15% in April. Listings are holding constant at a -3% month to month. This represents a very gradual slowing of our market so that it is not visable to the average consumer. In fact the decrease in our market is so subliminal that the unit price in Fredericton is still going up as the buyer here believes we are in a prosperity market.

Again, I believe this gradual increase in production will continue into June. Thus having our market end up with a -10% year over year. The residential market will continue to hold it's own, however, the commercial market is doing very well as we see many substantial buildings being erected as I write this.

So Folks, look for a continued market improvement as we approach summer. We still can see lots of opportunity out there for your main cliental, the " first time home buyer". Good luck and have a great summer.

Talk to you in May end.

LET'S LOOK AT WHAT HAPPENED IN THE FREDERICTON REAL ESTATE MARKET IN MARCH 2009.

Phil Booker (Booker Realty) — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 19:57:54 -0500

We have some good news for March 2009. Sales have picked up substancially throughout the month. In

fact they increased 18% over March of last year. Now that the snow banks have receeded March sales

have gone a long way to correct the snowy January and February shortfall from the same periods over last year.

This dropped the per centage of dollar volume down, year over year from -35% to -16%. I suspect that this -16%/month

will stick around throughout April, May and June. The overall correction should level out at -10% year over

year, by July or August stats.

The good news is that we are experiencing a relatively strong stable real estate market and there is

nothing in the high water mark future that suggests anything but good times to come.

So with the Government's new home buyer incentive and the lowest interests in history @ 3.69% for 5

year term, we should have hoards of smart buyers on the market this Spring and throughout the year.

Talk to you all at April month end and enjoy the buzz of sales as we spring into Spring. Cheers, Phil.

FREDERICTON REAL ESTATE MARKET FOR FEBRUARY 2009

Phil Booker (Booker Realty) — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 20:37:52 -0600

Let's look at what happened in the Fredericton Market in February 2009 and Year to Date

2009 2008 % OF DECREASE/INCREASE YEAR TO DATE

Total listings for February 344 423 - 19 %

Total listings YTD 812 979 - 17 %

Total Sales for February 104 175 - 41 %

Total Sales YTD 185 295 - 37 %

Total Dollsr Volume for February - 43 %

Total Dollar Volume YTD -35 %

As one can see the Fredericton Market is not only not improving, it has gone down from January's 25% decrease to a February decrease of 43%. This gives an overall Year to Date decrease of 35%. Hopefully, this trend will not continue. However, I don't see anything in the immediate future that will reverse this current trend.

All we can hope is the cause of these extreme deductions in sales is perpetuated by the continuous snowy weather and not the Doom and Gloom predictions of the economic climate. My feel is that it is probably both at a 50%/50% split. If I am right that should make about a 50% correction by June to an average overall decrease of around 17%. So with the boom market we have been experiencing for the past 3 or 4 years we should not plan to panic just yet.

Also, with better weather in the forcast and the $750 government grant for first time home buyers things should start to pick up in March.

Lastly, even with the decrease in overall real estate production the market value is holding strong and properties are selling at either full price or just about 3% less than full price. Go figure???

This sure is a very unorthodox business! Which, I guess is what makes it so fascinating. Talk to you at March end?

January Real Estate Market Report for Fredericton, NB Area

Phil Booker (Booker Realty) — Tue, 03 Feb 2009 21:14:58 -0600

FREDERICTON MARKET FOR JANUARY 2009

Fredericton market to date indicates the severity of the American and Global recession. The stats for January 2009, which I share with you today, gives us a birds-eye view of what the real estate market will do in 2009. Forwarned is forarmed. I believe we are heading into a very strong buyers market as early as April of this year. Supply and Demand. If you have lots of listings and few buyers it makes sense that buyers will experience some fantastic buys throughout the year. Let's look at the stats so far for January 09.

Total # of Listings year to date= 468 a drop of 16%

Total # of Sales year to date = 80 a drop of 33%

Total Sales Dollar Volume year to date= $ 11,937,050 a drop of 25%

With sales in a free fall of twice that of listings. It is a good bet that there will be a lot of good opportunities for the smart buyers to cash in on a profit bonanza. So far this year the 33% decrease in sales is 3 times what I predicted on December 31,2008. It is also very likely that other cities across Canada are experiencing this same trend and maybe even more so as one goes west. Vendors should take heed and make sure they do not over price their property and lose the best market in the Spring.

With this market edge that the buyers have, plus the $ 750.00 the Federal Government is promising " First Time Home Buyers " we should expect to see these young buyers as our majority of purchasers throughout 2009.

Check back with me at the end of February and we will see if this trend persists.

Predictions for Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada Real Estate Market for 2009

Phil Booker (Booker Realty) — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 11:13:01 -0600

After 40 years in the real estate business I think I am in a position to share some of my beliefs as to what might happen in the Fredericton real estate market for 2009. As you can appreciate this is extremely subjective so I am even more excited to visit with you again on December 31,2009, just to see how we did. As I reflect on 2005. 2006, and 2007 it dumbfounds me to see the continued increase in gross yearly sales, year after year, when each year we waited for a free fall in both unit price and yearly dollar volume.

Well, good things must come to an end as we see the market slowing and a slight 7% decrease in dollar volume for 2008. The good news is that Fredericton is a real estate haven where real estate sales go up very gradual and down very gradual. Thus for the most part we maintain a prosperity market. Whereby, homes keep their value with little fluctuation and buyers can still buy at a fair market value.

So as we see the average volume for the past 4 years increasing at 9%/year, we can expect a gradual decrease at about 9%/yr. taking place over the next 4 years. Lets see how this will play out in 2009.

Here are my PREDICTIONS for Fredericton for 2009. Let me know if you agree, disagree or have a totally different Crystal Ball?

(1) Employment will remain strong in 2009 as Fredericton is in the process of building a new conference center,parking arcade, new ice area, new fire station, new school plus several private building projects.

(2) Interest rates will remain at an all time low in the 4 to 5 per cent range.

(3) Immigration will stay as strong as 2008 as more people are attracted to the city from the small villages in the province and abroad.

(4) Independent Mortgage Brokers will flourish as conventional banks tighten up their lending practices. Banks really need to rewrite their mortgage lending practices They are driving their existing clients to Mortgage Brokers.

(5) Appraisers will flourish as home values drop. More and more mortgagees will require an appraisal before agreeing with the real estate sale price. This will give them comfort for their exposed risk.

(6) Smaller and more Conservative priced homes will sell much faster than big ticket homes.

(7) Location, location, location will not be so much a factor to buying as most consumers will only be too happy to pay less for a home farther from city center, even with the expected high price of gas. This will be driven by the difficulty buyers will have in qualifying for a mortgage.

(8) Listing porfolios will increase and sales will decrease proportionally at about 10% as there will be less buyers on the market throughout 2009.

(9) Condo sales will remain strong as consumers will opt for condos over single family homes because the prices are lower and buyers will be able to qualify much easier. Especially, if gas prices becomes a factor in their buying psych.

(10) Cottage sales will suffer as consumers look to conserve their disposable income, at least for 2009.

(11) Commercial real estate will suffer as lending institutions will be reluctant to finance business buildings even more than in these past boom years.

(12) Credit will be tight and financing will be the Realtors best worst nightmare all year long.

(13) Builders will build as much as 40% less homes for 2009 as compared to 2008.

(14) New construction in apartment buildings will be almost totally dead for 2009 as the supply has all but caught up to demand.

(15) The number of real estate salespeople will start to dwindle as we enter 2009 as sales decrease dramatically, and even more as we begin the fourth quarter of 2009.