Patrick Walsh, Realtor, CNE, Green -'s Blog

November Tempe Real Estate Market Update

Wed, 25 Nov 2009 16:37:55 -0600

Last week I attended the Arizona 2010 Real Estate and Business Forecast. Elliot Pollack, Valley economist who has been providing Economic Forecasts for more than 25 years, presented valuable information for homeowners, buyers, sellers, and renters. There was also a panel of real estate experts from both residential and commercial specialties who essentially confirmed what Elliot Pollack reported.

The main message from the seminar was this:

Economic recovery will be slow... there is no silver bullet.
Home values may not be on track until 2013.
The barometers of real estate recovery will be:

1) population growth which will be driven by

2) job growth or vice versa.

Energy technology (wind, solar, etc.) will be more important than ever for Arizona's economy. The semiconductor industry has gone overseas and don't expect it to be back soon. Aerospace will concentrate in areas of research centers (not Arizona).
Economic recovery could take four years and thus the 2013 time frame for the real estate market's return to the highs of 2007.

For Renters:

Residential or commercial renters- now is the time to renegotiate your lease. There is a huge oversupply of rentals and landlords should be ready to take any deal they can get or they may have to see their properties empty and subject to vandalism.

For Buyers:

First time buying a home? Now is the time.
Buying a home is still cheaper than renting a home, but not for long.
Interest rates have not been this low in years.
The First-time Homebuyer Tax Credit will be available until this spring.
Real Estate Deals are out there but the inventory of smoking deals is beginning to dry up.
Talk to a mortgage lender and get qualified immediately.
Affordability indices for the valley are at record lows.

"Buyers -- you can buy more house now you could at any time in the past 11 years." Elliot Pollack, Economist.

If you are considering purchasing a new home from a home builder, please remember it costs you nothing to have a buyer's real estate agent represent you. If you decide to not have a real estate agent represent you, then you have no-one looking out for your best interests. If you want a better deal for you and your family, be sure to call a real estate agent before you go out to look at those new homes.

For Homeowners:

• If you are happy in your home and not thinking of moving and can afford your mortgage, then count your blessings and enjoy your good fortune.

• If you are looking to cash in the equity in your home, then the longer you can wait the better.

• If you are thinking of moving up and you still have some equity in your home, then it is time to sell. (As your home value increases so will the cost of your new home.) And if you have been in your home for five of the last eight years, then there may be a tax credit available to you.

• If you are downsizing, then hang in there until you are good and ready to move.

• If you are upside-down and want or need to move, then a short sale may be a solution. It is a difficult and complicated path but we have some of the top short sale experts at our office and I would be happy to set up an appointment for you with them.

• If you are upside-down and want to reduce your monthly payments, you may want to start a conversation with your lender about loan modification.

Please call me to discuss any or all of the above scenarios. I am happy to help.

Happy Thanksgiving to you and your loved ones.

September Tempe Real Estate Market Update

Sat, 26 Sep 2009 16:44:37 -0500

More of the same... this will be the third month that numbers have remained stable with regard to supply, demand and inventory. If you don't remember or didn't catch my August blog, please scroll down and read "By the Numbers" in the August Tempe Real Estate Market Update.

Home prices are up for the 4^th month in a row:

We have seen a slight up tick in average and median home prices.

Between April and July there has been a 9% increase in median and average price of homes sold in the Phoenix area. (Increasing from $115K to $125k and $160k to 175K respectively). If this continues that would represent almost a 30% increase in a year.

So what will it take till everyone else jumps on board and agrees that the market has turned? Just remember you read it here first....

Is it Time to Buy?

It is clearly still a good time to buy a home. There has only been a one month supply of foreclosures for sale for several months now. But remember, short sales continue to be "long sales" as the 10 month supply stays the same.

As the tax credit window continues to close, prices are starting to increase and I am sure interest rates will be next. Need I say more?

If you know someone who is thinking of buying or selling a home please forward this link to them....

Here is the least expensive idea for making your home energy efficient and it could save you big bucks....find out how.

Tue, 08 Sep 2009 17:05:30 -0500

Arizona homeowners can easily save money and increase the real estate market value of their residencies by simply sealing air leaks commonly found in many areas around the home. Sealing air leaks is one of the least costly (and least complicated) ways to begin or continue the process of "greening" a home. The task requires only a minimal investment of time and supplies, yet it yields a substantial payoff that can last many years. Sealing leaks keeps hot summer air out of circulation in the home and less air conditioner energy is needed to stay cool. Later on in the year when the cold winter air is also barred from entry, less heat is needed inside the home. This will save the homeowner money on electricity bills and will also make the home more attractive to buyers willing to pay more for an energy-efficient or green home.

To locate a leak, wait until there is wind activity outside, then hold a lit stick of incense up to any area in which a leak may occur such as doorways, windows, electrical outlets and switches. If the incense smoke moves in a horizontal, rather than vertical direction, a leak is present. Sealing windows with weather stripping and caulk will stop air leaks, as will the installation of foam gaskets behind outlet and light switch plates. And when air passes under closed doors because there is a space between the door bottom and the floor, a flexible sealing gasket can be attached to the door bottom. These really are easy fixes.

Your Tempe realtor and National Association of Realtors ® Green Designee, Patrick Walsh, is available to assist you with any step in the process of greening your home. The Tempe real estate market is warming up and if you are planning to sell, there is no time like the present to increase the energy efficiency and market value of your home through greening. Patrick Walsh can connect you with local green appliance, home improvement suppliers and contractors to help you get started on larger projects. Contact Patrick Walsh today at pwalsh@kw.com to let him know how he can be of service.

Further low-cost energy tips:

www.energysavers.gov

Oprah- Green Home Improvements

Only 3 Months Left to Claim $8,000.00 Tax Credit for First-time Home Buyers

Thu, 27 Aug 2009 17:38:53 -0500

Perhaps the most significant stroke of President Obama's pen up to this point actually took place during his first month in office - on February 17 of this year - when he signed The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 into law. The federal tax credit of up to $8,000.00 for first-time homebuyers is an economically beneficial component of the act that a great number of U.S. taxpayers have enjoyed during the past 7 months. But if you are a hopeful first-time buyer who has not yet seized this opportunity to save thousands of dollars on a residential purchase this year, be advised that only 3 months remain before the tax credit offer expires! As of December 1, 2009, first-time homebuyers may no longer register for up to $8,000.00 in tax savings from Uncle Sam. And remarkably, this is a tax credit that buyers do not have to pay back. This is really an incredible development, considering that the 2008 version of the ARR Act included up to only $7,500.00 in first-time homebuyer tax credit which had to be repaid. On paper, that so-called credit was actually behaving as a government loan, rather than the much needed recovery funding assistance the tax credit became this year.

To qualify for the credit as a first-time homebuyer, an individual must not have purchased a new or used home (as a primary residence) within the past 3 years before the date of purchase. Ineligibility of one spouse in a married couple means that neither spouse is eligible for the credit. However, a parent who does not qualify may co-sign on a home loan for a son or daughter who is a first-time buyer and the son or daughter will receive the tax credit (as long as the son or daughter claims the home as primary residence). A range of questions regarding tax credit eligibility are answered at the Internal Revenue Service website.

Additionally, to be eligible for the First-time Home Buyer Tax Credit, buyers must close escrow before December 1, 2009. If you are interested in taking advantage of this tax incentive, we encourage you to start looking for your new home now in order to guarantee meeting the deadline.

Patrick Walsh, your local National Association of Realtors ® Green Designee realtor in Tempe, Arizona, is also your reliable source for information you need regarding the 2009 federal tax credit for first-time homebuyers. Let Patrick Walsh guide you through the steps involved in applying for the tax credit as you work together to locate your new home in the Tempe, Arizona area. Whether buying or selling, rely on Walsh and his team of realty experts to provide you with excellence in customer care and service throughout every stage of your home buying or selling experience.

August Tempe Real Estate Market Update

Fri, 14 Aug 2009 18:45:38 -0500

Where have all the real estate deals gone?

There have been a couple of dramatic changes in the Phoenix real estate market in the last few weeks. First, the inventory in the Baseline corridor has disappeared. The number of available real estate deals in the corridor has dropped from approximately 15-20 homes to 3 homes over night!!

Our Keller Williams bank owned property specialist has informed me that in the bank owned arena, there have been significant changes. Our bank owned property specialist was previously listing 20 new properties per week but is now listing 2 new properties per week. Apparently, cash investors with large portfolios are by-passing the traditional real estate market and buying on the county steps at deed of trust sales.

What about properties that are upside down (the value of the home is less than the loan amount)?

Banks are dropping the asking price to an amount closer to market value right before homes are sold. Bank owned properties are also being packaged for multiple property sales.

What does this mean for non-investors who are trying to buy or sell a single property?

Buying a home or selling a home just got a whole lot harder. Foreclosed properties are rapidly disappearing which is stabilizing the bottom end of the real estate market.

If you are looking for a real estate deal, the search just became more arduous. The good news is that phase one of the real estate market turnaround has begun!

By The Numbers

Foreclosure sales (REOs or bank owned properties) have stabilized. The number of "properties for sale" and "sold properties" is nearly equal. Since May, home inventory has been approximately 1 month (meaning, at the current rate of sale, it would take 1 month for the inventory to be completely sold). Short sales continue to be long sales (meaning they take a LONG time to close). The inventory of short sale homes has been constant for 6 months at 12,000, with 1,200 sold per month, causing at least a 10-month inventory of short sale homes.

Is it time to consider selling your home?

Not quite yet. Home values are still down even though we are technically in a seller's market that is being artificially caused by the foreclosure market. For traditional, private sales it is still a buyer's market. There is currently a 7-month inventory of privately listed homes. We will enter a seller's market when the inventory drops below 6 months.

Is it time to buy a home?

Absolutely. I hope you have figured out that the window of opportunity is closing. Not only are the real estate deals (the REOs) disappearing, but the $8,000 first-time home buyers' incentive ends at the end of this year.

What are the next steps to buying a home before all the deals and incentives are gone?

Get yourself pre-qualified with one of our lenders and let's start looking for your next home today!

Green homes prove to be a selling point for buyers

Sat, 13 Jun 2009 16:25:18 -0500

For those of you still trying to sell a home, there may be an option you haven't considered: going green. Making your home green can make it more marketable, as well as environmentally-friendly. Green homes are in demand - according to Realty Times, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHBR) claims that as much as 90 percent of home buyers think that energy efficiency is a very important factor when shopping for a home. Realty Times goes on to say that NAHBR reports that 72 percent of consumers report energy-efficient features in a home would influence their purchase decision.

As a NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Green Designee, I can help you find the products and services that will help you "green" your home and make it more energy efficient. I can help you make decisions about green materials, energy efficient technology, green ratings, green design, green living and green incentives. As your Tempe REALTOR®, I can also help you obtain a LEED certification for your home. LEED is a third-party certification program that sets design, construction and operational standards for high-performance green buildings.

By making your home green, you can lower your utility bills, which can save you money and give real estate agents and those looking to buy a home concrete proof that living in your home will save them money, too. Here are a few changes you can make that will help lower your utility bills and serve as selling point for your home:

ENERGY STAR windows - annual savings: $300
Solar Attic Fan - annual savings: $200
Low-flow Faucets - annual savings: $100

If you are interested in "greening" your home, please contact me and I would be happy to connect you with local green vendors who can help you make that transition. If you do not live in Tempe, Scottsdale or the Phoenix area, I can contact a NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Green Designee on your behalf who can help you find the tools you need to create a more sustainable home.

Patrick Walsh, Keller Williams Realty
Realty Times
Green Resource Council of the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
ENERGY STAR
U.S. Green Building Council

Real Estate Market Continues to Improve

Mon, 01 Jun 2009 16:03:10 -0500

The real estate market is continuing to show signs of improvement after a consistent two-month drop in the absorption rate. The absorption rate is the ratio between active and solds: the time it would take at the current rate of sale for the inventory to be completely sold. For example, if there are 10,000 homes for sale in a region, and 1,000 are sold each month, the absorption rate would be 10.

At the end of April, the absorption rate for the valley was down to 5.5 - a few years ago, it wasn't uncommon for a home in the Phoenix-metropolitan area to sit on the market for 25-30 months. Anything below an absorption rate of 6 is considered a seller's market. At present, the absorption rate is down to an astonishing 4.3.

There are currently 40,034 homes for sale on the real estate market - in the beginning of April, there were 50,000 homes for sale. That is a 20 percent drop in inventory in just two months. The number of homes for sale is expected to drop below 40,000 by the end of the month. There are 13,669 pending sales expected to close in the next 30 days. During the month of May, 9,351 homes were sold - in April, 8,527 homes were sold (April 1-24). In short, there were 824 more homes sold and 2,432 fewer homes for sale in May than there were in April.

May was also a good month for Tempe. In Tempe, the absorption rate is now 6.6 - not even a month ago, the absorption rate was hovering at a 10 or 11 month absorption rate. The number of homes for sale in Tempe is 131, bringing the inventory of available homes down to 876.

Investors are still continuing to snatch up foreclosures - they are buying foreclosures at a faster rate than they are hitting the market. The absorption rate for foreclosures is less than 1.0. In the last month, 5,939 foreclosures were sold, leaving only 5,472 on the market. If you want to buy a home, don't be discouraged - there are still plenty of homes and foreclosures out there. Just know that there is a strong chance that you will be competing against multiple offers.

Links:

Steady home sales could be positive signal (CNN Money)

More Americans Consider Buying Foreclose Homes (MarketWatch)

Realty Times Market Conditions: Arizona (Realty Times)

REALTORS® with Green Designation Certification Can Help You Find and Create Eco-Friendly Homes

Tue, 26 May 2009 15:02:57 -0500

With the real estate market finally showing signs of life, it may be time for you to think about what you are looking for in a REALTOR® and in a home. A NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Green Designee can help you find or create a green home. A green home can be easier on the environment, your health and your wallet.

As your Tempe REALTOR® and a green designee, I am qualified to guide you through the green process, whether you are looking to buy or sell a green home. If you do not live in the area, I would be happy to refer you to another REALTOR® with a green designation that can help you find what you are looking for.

In order to attain the "green designee" designation, a REALTOR® is required to take a class offered through the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®. The class teaches REALTORS® how to make educated decisions about green materials, energy-efficient technologies, green ratings, green design, green living and green incentives.

A green designee REALTOR® can also help you obtain a LEED certification for your home. A LEED certification is a third-party that sets design, construction and operational standards for high performance green buildings. A LEED certification can make your home more marketable. In addition to helping you obtain a LEED certification for your home, a green designee can help you find a LEED certified home.

A green home should have the following: a positive impact on human health and comfort; integration into a sound environment; and sustainable design, construction and systems (NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®). A green designee REALTOR® can help you secure the products and services that will make your home more sustainable.

Patrick Walsh Green Living: Green Vendors

U.S. Green Building Council

Green REsource Council of the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

12 Questions to Ask Your Green Vendor

Fri, 22 May 2009 16:32:53 -0500

If you decide that you want to make your home more sustainable, then working with a green vendor can help ensure a more environmentally-friendly home for yourself and your family. As your Tempe real estate agent and a NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Green Designee, I can help you make educated decisions about green vendors, green materials, energy-efficient technology, green ratings, green design, green living and green incentives. There may be many green vendors in your city, making it difficult to determine if a vendor is truly green. The NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® recommends that you consider the following before hiring a green vendor to help you with your home:

What is the vendor's location and proximity to the job site?
Does the vendor have a certification or proven affiliation with a recognized green building organization?
Is there a professional association for the trade? If so, is the vendor a member and active participant?
What is the vendor's knowledge and experience in working with green building issues?
Are client references available?
Has the vendor completed a green building project similar in size and scope? Are site visits or photographs available? Is client contact information available?
Does the vendor recycle or reuse demolition or construction waste?
Does the vendor have an area of green specialization?
Does the vendor use a third-party organization to verify work?

If you do decide to work with a green vendor, I have posted the names and contact information of some local vendors on the Green Living page on my Web site.

Creating a green home can be an exciting and rewarding process, however is important to understand that you may need to make some compromises. You may come across a green vendor who offers bamboo flooring, but the product must first be shipped from China. Which is more important - the product that helps lessen your impact on the environment, or the fuel it will take to get the product here? Only you can answer that question.

For more information on green vendors, please visit the following Web sites:

Patrick Walsh's Green Living

U.S. Green Building Council: Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED)

National Association of Home Builders

Green Homes Help You Save Money and the Environment

Tue, 19 May 2009 16:42:18 -0500

I am pleased to announce that I have been awarded the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Green Designation certification. What does this mean for you? As your Tempe REALTOR®, it means I have the tools to help you "green" your home, making it more marketable and environmentally friendly.

Green homes should have the following: a positive impact on human health and comfort; integration into a sound environment; and sustainable design, construction and systems (NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®). Former Vice-President Al Gore's Nobel Prize winning documentary, "An Inconvenient Truth," helped inspire my decision to work toward a more sustainable existence as both a person and a REALTOR®. As a REALTOR®, I want to help people create environmentally-friendly homes.

As a NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Green Designee, I can help you make educated decisions about green materials, energy-efficient technology, green ratings, green design, green living and green incentives. I can also help you obtain a LEED certification for your home. LEED is a third-party certification program that sets design, construction and operational standards for high performance green buildings.

LEED is awarded by the U.S. Green Building Council. Certification is available in the following areas:

New construction and major renovations
Existing buildings
Commercial interiors (fit outs by tenants)
Core and shell (total building without fit outs)
Schools (K-12), retail and healthcare facilities
Homes
Neighborhood Development

Qualified properties are awarded one of the following certifications: Certified, Silver, Gold or Platinum. Properties can qualify for LEED certification by earning points in six areas:

Sustainable sites
Water efficiency
Energy and atmosphere
Materials and resources
Indoor environment quality
Innovation and design process

I can help you by making suggestions to help you "green" your home. I can also connect you with reputable green vendors who can provide the products and services that will help you make your home more sustainable.

Here are a couple of purchases you can make that will save you money and lessen your environmental impact:

ENERGY STAR windows - annual savings: $300
Solar Attic Fan - annual savings: $200
Low-flow Faucets - annual savings: $100

For more information on green building, I encourage you to visit the following Web sites:

Green REsource Council of the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

ENERGY STAR

U.S. Green Building Council

Loan Modification Can Help You Save Your Home

Fri, 15 May 2009 21:59:25 -0500

If you are one of the many people struggling to save your home, then loan modification may be the life raft you are looking for.

Loan modification can help you reduce your monthly mortgage payment. While not all homeowners qualify, it doesn’t hurt to look into pre-qualification.

To qualify, you must be employed and able to demonstrate that your household income has been reduced. As your Tempe realtor, I would be happy to help you determine if you are pre-qualified for assistance - at no charge to you. No upfront fees, no charge for the results. If there is a way to help you save your home, I want to help.

The pre-qualification process can be cumbersome – having a professional assist you can make the process less overwhelming. If you are pre-qualified, you are in no way obligated to continue the qualification process with me.

Loan modification isn’t always the best solution – in some cases, a short sale is the best course of action. The loan modification process is ideal for those who are unable to make their monthly mortgage payment – but can, with a little tweaking to their budget. Short sales are the better option for those who cannot pay their bills. A short sale can even be beneficial for some, taking away a massive source of financial stress. I will help you determine which avenue you should pursue.

Before you decide to hire someone to help you save your home, be sure to do your research - there are predatory companies taking advantage of those seeking assistance. Arizona Republic Real Estate reporter Catherine Reagor reported in Sunday’s paper that families across the Valley are being victimized by scam artists who are taking advantage of the uncertainty surrounding loan modification. Reagor said if the company you are dealing with guarantees that it can get your lender to reduce your monthly mortgage payment or tells you not to seek outside assistance, you may be the victim of a scam. Some victims have reported that the scammers have offered to fill out the paperwork for them, demanded payment in advance and rushed them through the process.

If you are concerned that you have been the victim of a scam, or suspect a company of wrongdoing, you can report it to one of the following organizations:

• The Arizona Attorney General’s Office

o 602-542-4266

o www.azag.gov

• Arizona Department of Financial Institutions

o 602-255-4421

o www.azdfi.gov

• Federal Trade Commision

o 877-382-4357

o www.ftc.gov

Remember, you are not alone in this – together, we will find a solution.

May Tempe Real Estate Market Update

Tue, 12 May 2009 14:52:10 -0500

Home sales continue to climb as more and more foreclosures are snatched up by investors. Foreclosure inventory in the last month has dropped from 10,200 to 6,700 – pending home sales are at 8,183, and 5,508 homes were sold in the last 30 days. Investors are buying foreclosures at a faster rate than they are hitting the market.

The percentage of foreclosed homes in Tempe is lower than the rest of the valley (8 percent versus 35 percent), which means Tempe’s absorption rate continues to hover at a 10 or 11 month absorption rate. The absorption rate is the ratio between active and solds: the time it would take at the current rate of sale for the inventory to be completely sold. Valley wide, however, the absorption rate is now 5.0 – the last time the Valley real estate market saw the absorption rate this low was in 2006. In the last 30 days, 8,527 homes have been sold, bringing the inventory of available homes down to 42,466.

While foreclosed homes continue to close at a rapid pace, the real estate market is having a more difficult time moving short sales and pre-closure properties. Short sales and preclosed homes only have a 1 in 15 chance of closing. At present, there are 12,054 short sales on the market and last month, only 804 of those closed. It is for this reason that many of my clients are choosing not to pursue short sales – they are waiting until the banks are more responsive to buyers.

This stunning turn around in the market occurred in the time span of a few weeks. Some insiders are claiming that another wave of foreclosures is about to hit the market, but judging by the high demand for foreclosed properties, these homes won’t last long. As we move into the prime buying time for homes, the demand will continue to increase on the retail end of the market.

Tips to Help You Avoid Foreclosure

Fri, 08 May 2009 15:10:49 -0500

The real estate market is currently in a state of flux, with many people still struggling to keep their homes. Arizona Republic reporter Chad Graham shared real estate reporter Catherine Reagor’s tips for readers who are dealing with a potential foreclosure. According to Reagor, foreclosures spiked more than tenfold in the past year as homeowners fell behind on their mortgage payments. Here are some of Reagor’s tips that can help you from becoming a statistic:

1. Contact your lender immediately.

2. Organize important papers – locate such items as lender information, annual tax returns paychecks and monthly utility bills (any organization providing assistance will ask for this information).

3. Look into Making Home Affordable, a plan to stabilize our housing market and help up to 7 to 9 millions Americans reduce their monthly mortgage payments to more affordable levels. For more information, visit www.makinghomeaffordable.com or call 888-995-HOPE.

4. Call the Arizona Foreclosure Prevention Hotline at 877-448-1211. It offers bilingual counselors.

5. Check out www.hud.gov. Click on the “foreclosure avoidance counseling” link and then choose Arizona. It is a good way to find a counselor approved by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).

6. Consider a short sale – you won’t make any money, but you won’t have a foreclosure on your credit either.

Not everyone is going to be able to avoid foreclosure, but for many of you, it Is not too late. Facing a foreclosure can be daunting, but it is important to face the challenge head on with creativity and honesty - hiding mortgage statements in the junk drawer or changing your phone number will not help you keep your home. So pause, take a deep breath, and start getting in touch with the people who can help you avoid foreclosure.

Real Estate Market Begins To Shift To a Seller’s Market

Fri, 01 May 2009 12:17:29 -0500

After a tumultuous two years, the real estate market is beginning to show signs of improvement. During the last three weeks, the Maricopa County absorption rate has steadily declined. The absorption rate is the ratio between active and solds: the time it would take at the current rate of sale for the inventory to be completely sold.

At present, the rate is down to an astonishing 5.5 - a few years ago, it wasn’t uncommon for a house in Arizona to sit on the market for 25-30 months. Anything under an absorption rate of 6 is considered a sellers market.

What does this mean for those of you looking to buy a home?

The time to buy a home is now - investors are snatching up properties, and the number of properties for sale has dropped significantly:

• During the last year, the number of homes for sale in Maricopa County has hovered at 55,000 - as of April 24, only 44,707 homes are available for purchase.

• In the last 30 days, 8,121 properties closed escrow.

This means more people competing for fewer properties. While the number of homes for sale has dropped, banks and lenders are listing properties at unbelievable low prices and waiting for buyers to bid up the price within a matter of days. Realtors are getting calls from buyers who are disappointed to learn that the homes they are interested in making offers on are homes with comparable home values sometimes as much at $20-30k above list price and with multiple offers already on the table that are well above list price. For this reason, we will primarily feature properties that are private sales (or what I call retail).

What does this mean for those of you looking to sell your home?

Some tips for those of you looking to sell a home: the prices may bounce along the bottom for some time before we see a price recovery. But I can assure you that the average person (with a loan) trying to buy a foreclosure in the $100k range is up against sometimes as many as 5 or 6 cash buyers. Only one of the those people got the property they were bidding on, which means 5 other properties will be bought by those cash buyers who are getting hungrier each time they get beat out.

The Calm Before the Storm

Fri, 10 Apr 2009 14:03:41 -0500

As those of you who have been following my blog know, one of the main statistical areas I have been tracking is the ratio between Active (for sale) and Closed (sold) properties on the MLS. I look at the whole MLS and also target Tempe as a sample of a local market.

At the end of March I noticed that many offers on properties below $150k were going very quickly and these properties frequently had multiple offers. Concerned by this trend I decided to check the MLS and noticed that the inventory was down to 50,200 active listings, 200 away from the 50,000 threshold. The market was last below 50,000 back in January of 2007. One day later it had dropped below 50,000.

I began monitoring the numbers on a daily basis and found the inventory dropping by hundreds each day. My last check, prior to writing this blog, was Wednesday, April 8, the total for active listings was 47,394 in the morning and 47,267 by the evening. A 6% drop in less then 10 days.

Going a bit deeper we see that there are 12,341 pending listings (under contract) which means the total sold for the past 30 days (7,554) could jump substantially in the next month.

The significance of this number is the ratio between Active and Solds, which gives us the absorption rate: the time it would take at the current rate of sale for the inventory to be completely sold. For the past few days that rate has hovered between 6.5 and 6.2 months. That is down from 12 months in October 2008 and 18 months in April 2008. A very significant drop.

What is more significant is the 6 months inventory is the turning point between a buyer’s market (above 6 months) and a seller’s market (below 6 months).

The main factor driving these numbers is the anecdotal evidence: that bank properties are starting to be bought up, that there are frequently multiple offers and that investors are buying bank properties in blocks of 25 or 50 units.

Many buyers have been sitting on the fence in the belief that prices will drop further. As soon as they figure out that the prices are not dropping any more, they will start buying aggressively. The calm will be over and the storm will begin.

By the time these buyers catch on, prices will already be rising and they will either be paying more or will no longer find quality products at the prices they wish to pay…

Thus the calm before the storm.

My Free Ride on the Tempe Metro

Tue, 03 Feb 2009 16:30:39 -0600

With all the excitement about the opening of Valley Metro Light Rail last month, and the high hopes of both businesses and residential areas clustered around the light Phoenix and Tempe light rail stations, I felt obligated to take a trip on Metro as soon as I could. We were out of town for the official opening festivities on Dec. 27 - but arrived back in Tempe on Dec. 31, the last day of free ridership on the Light Rail, and the trip home from the airport on light rail seemed like the perfect opportunity.

Usually a 10-minute, $20 taxi ride (including tip) from the airport to our home, we decided to test the light rail system in. (My wife was less enthusiastic and claims that I still owe her not only the $20 we saved but also the hour of additional time it took to get home!) We didn't have to wait long for the shuttle at Terminal 4 and were at 44th & Washington within 10 minutes of picking up our bags. We waited at the light rail station another 10 minutes and boarded the light rail car bound for downtown Tempe. Another 10 minutes and we were at the College/5th Street station, heading to find our free neighborhood shuttle (Orbit). Another wait, and another 10 minute light rail ride. And then, the walk from College Avenue to our home. Normally a quick stroll, but with bags it seemed much longer.

So we had loaded ourselves and our four bags on and off a shuttle bus, a light rail car and a microbus that morning and spent zero dollars but an hour longer than usual on our trip home from the airport. (That one-way trip on light rail would now cost $1.25 each - so still a deal.) Our conclusions:

There's not much room on the light rail for luggage on any of those modes of transportation
What might be fine in December will definitely not go down so well in June
It's great to have the light rail option when no-one can be talked in to picking you up at the airport!

And finally, we're already hearing anecdotal evidence of an increase in business and general activity around the light rail stations. It will be another few months before there's any hard evidence of a turnaround in those residential neighborhoods, so stay tuned!

Lease a Solar System From SolarCity! GreenAZ November 2008

Wed, 05 Nov 2008 22:31:41 -0600

November 2008

Tempe-based solar panel manufacturer, First Solar Inc., is teaming up with residential-installation company, SolarCity, and in the next five years will be producing solar panels for 25,000 homes.

SolarCity is offering a 15-year "no money down" lease program. Also being offered is a low, $1000 down payment lease program that, in most cases, would make your combined electric and lease payments lower than your current electric bill.

To get an estimate of how much money you will save by leasing a Solar System from SolarCity, please visit the SolarCity calculator and simply enter your zip code and average monthly electric bill: SolarCity Calculator

Recycle Your CFL Bulbs at Home Depot

If you use CFL bulbs it's important to know that, similar to fluorescent bulbs, CFL bulbs contain mercury and become toxic when incinerated or disposed of in a landfill. The good news is that all Home Depot locations are now recycling CFL bulbs!

Selling Your Home?

Your home will show as a more energy efficient home by using the Eco Hatchery Starter Kit. Please contact me to find out where to purchase the kit or, if you list your home with me, I will give you a free Eco Hatchery Starter Kit as a gift!

Is my house ready for a small wind energy system? Let's do a walk through! Part I

Fri, 31 Oct 2008 16:45:23 -0500

Via Mary Bigelow, Renewing Your Life!:

Pick up any newspaper across the US these days and I will bet you a dollar to a donut you will find at least one article about energy. It is also very likely you will find at least one article about Wind Energy in particular.

Wind is very exciting! Wind is CLEAN ENERGY!

It is a very powerful feeling to leave a house and know the homeowner is producing their own energy!!! They have their own private power plant!!!

I smile as my phone rings with calls from consumers inquiring about wind. It gives me a chance to share what I have learned and it is rare when I don't learn something from the party on the phone.

I also hear questions that tell me there is confusion being created by so many articles, points of view and the variety of wind energy systems available.

This is a map from KHOU in Houston showing Centerpoint Energy's expected completion of power restoration in the areas of Texas affected by IKE. (I hope Stephanie is fairing ok!)

Something I hear quite often is that people expect with a wind energy system they will have power in times of outages like this.

I have to explain that is not necessarily so.

There are basically two different types of connections with residential wind generators

1. off grid - Georgina and Pete can probably give a lot of help with this! Off the grid systems require some type of battery storage for the energy created.

2. grid tied - the majority of small wind energy systems feed the energy produced to the power company. These are required to have an automatic shut off when the grid is down. Otherwise, you could produce energy and feed it back to the grid while some poor line worker is trying to restore power to your neighbors. The poor line worker would get a heck of a shock!

So this takes care of misconception #1.

The majority of wind energy systems my company installs are Grid Tied. For most households the best source of backup power is the electric companies grid! Why? There will be times when the wind doesn't blow so you won't create any energy and for the average household the draw will normally be more than their wind generator can produce.

Now the conversation moves toward, "So then I can sell the extra I make to the electric company?"**

Well...another deep subject! (sorry, I had to say it!)

This is where I play badminten and volley the shuttlecock back over the net,

"How many kilowatts a month (year) do you use?"

Wow! you would think I asked a question about the periodic table. It's unfortunate...most people simply don't know.

I must confess, I never knew until I got into this field and that's ok! I know now! (and obviously this family needs to work on some things!!!) and this is what is important! Awareness is half the battle!

So help me out here...How many average kilowatts does your household use in a year? There are a couple of ways to find out.

1. Many utility companies now have an online site where you can check your history. You will need to register and will normally you will need your billing handy because you will need your account number and some other personal information. I have found this to be the simplest way.

2. If you don't have access to the internet you can go through your records of paper bills (ugh!) add the kilowatt hours you have used over "x" number of months, divide by "x" number of months and walla! you have an average. The kilowatt hours on my bill - Consumers Energy - are listed in the upper right hand corner. Each utility will vary where place kilowatt hours on the bill.

3. If you can't access the internet or paper billing records you will have to call your utility company (double ugh!) and have them send it to you. This is always last resort!

In climates like Michigan and other parts of the midwest it is good to get a 12 month average.

Why? We use a fair amount of air conditioning in the summer, which is electric. Most of our homes are heated with some type of gas or fuel oil so the electric utility is normally lower during winter months. A twelve month average works best.

One note (I have to get my rant in...) Many people pay their utilities on a "budget" program. There are several reasons I disagree with this plan. The most important reason is that people tend to look at the dollar amount of their bill and not the kilowatt hours used. If the bill stays the same for 10 months out of the year most people are unaware of times when they are using more energy.

This causes less conservation again due to unawareness. (read: higher utility bills)

So I'll just wait right here while you go get that information! This is the really important part!! Then we can get on to part II and find out,

"Is your home ready for a small wind energy system?"

**Currently 30 states require net metering. If you can't wait the American Wind Energy Association has a nice write up on net metering and explains each states policy!

COPYRIGHT © 2008 Mary McGraw-Bigelow All Rights Reserved

Picture: SkyStream 3.7 Small Wind Energy System, Manistee, Michigan

Green Innovations at the 2008 Green Summit!

Mon, 20 Oct 2008 03:48:23 -0500

October 2008

_____________________________________________________________________________________

From green building and energy efficiency to low water landscaping and organic products, the 2008 Green Summit had something for everyone! For those of you who were unable to attend the 2008 Green Summit, here is a summary of some of the green vendors we had an opportunity to work with and meet!

Green Element Design Group: Specializing in Green consulting services, including architects, landscapers, permaculture designers, builders, interior designers and rain water harvesting consultants, as well as a unique line of Green products for people and plants.

A.K.A. Green: eco-friendly flooring, carpets, paints, windows, stains, lighting fixtures, and non-toxic cleaning supplies

Energy Efficiency

Altered Element: Window Tinting Solutions- advanced technology window films reject heat without sacrificing your beautiful Arizona views or blocking out alot of visible light.

BMC West: Energy efficient Doors and Windows

EnviroCar: Chauffeured Hybrid Transportation. Toyota Prius or Lexus RX400h: Your Pick!

Synergy Systems: Insulation and Radiant Barriers (lowers roof temps by 20 to 50 degrees F)- Have it installed or do it yourself!

Architects, Builders and Contractors

Sead Architects: Full service award winning design/build studio. Thoughtful architectural designs and renovation specific to sites and owners. Architectural solutions that are respectful of the past, speak to the present and are pursuant of the future.

Evergreen Homes: Construction of new homes and remodeling: design, build, coach, consult. "PG" Builder.

Form Werks Studios: Full service Architecture and Design firm, specializing in site-specific architecture. Crafts homes so you can enjoy all that mother nature has provided.

Kitchen Solvers- Fine eco-friendly kitchen and bathroom remodeling and cabinetry: 4 brands of eco-friendly custom cabinetry.

Progressive Concrete Works Inc: Top quality decorative concrete, stamped concrete, stained concrete, concrete overlays and concrete hardscapes. Drainscape Pervious Concrete: www.drainscape.com

Community

The 3000 Club: Produce/Food Rescue in Nogales- Rescued produce is transported to food banks throughout the US

If you are interested in finding more Green Vendors in the Phoenix area, please visit our Green Vendor List!

How Does Free Electricity Sound?? GreenAZ September 2008

Mon, 08 Sep 2008 20:22:49 -0500

September 2008

The savings on your Utility Bill could pay for a Solar Powered System.

APS is introducing a new loan for home owners to install solar panels to generate their own electricity:

The GEOsmart loan program means that for no money down, you can install solar panels and the monthly cost could be ZERO depending on the amount of electricity you use and the amount of sunlight that reaches your roof.

Here's how it works:

First find a licensed and approved contractor at www.egia.com/aps. Have the contractor calculate the right system for your home. Then plug in the numbers to the calculator and find out what your payments would be. Take your monthly electricity bill and, if the solar system can cover 80% of your electrical needs, calculate that number. If it is more than the monthly loan payment for the system then getting solar panels for your home is a 'no brainer.'

During the day when the system is producing electricity that you are not using, the meter actually runs backwards as your system sends electricity back to the utility company. This is a great way to increase your savings.

Typical numbers:

The installation for the average home is a 3KW system that costs around $21,000. This system triggers a $9,000 rebate. (For more information on rebates go to www.aps.com) This rebate can be used to pay down the interest rate to around 8%. A 10-year loan would run around $160 a month and a 15 year loan around $125 a month. I know for our home that is well below our average monthly electricity bill.

Customers in areas served by SRP can still get loans and work with the approved contractors. The interest rates may not be quite as attractive as they are for APS customers. (www.srpnet.com)

The Real Estate Market Continues to Recover - August 2008

Sat, 16 Aug 2008 03:07:07 -0500

By The Numbers

Inventory (supply) down: For the fifth straight month, total inventory has dropped. We are still in the 50,000s and although this is still high, the trend is down.

Sales (demand) up: Closed sales for June are above 6,000 and are double what they were per month during the slump in 2007.

Forecast: Pending sales for August are still around 7,000, so it is safe to conclude that the downward trend will continue.

The absorption rate (time to clear out the current inventory) has dropped to 9 months from over 20 months in 2007.

The last time we saw a similar rate was in the Spring of 2007. We are approaching normalcy.

Conclusion: The Market Continues to Gain Momentum.

Two Factors that could Jump Start Sales in the next 45-60 days:

On October 1, FHA down payment requirements will increase from 3% to 3.5% and the grant money that helps first-time home buyers with their down payment goes away. Please keep in mind that some mortgage companies are already eliminating down payment assistance: One of our preferred mortgage brokers has indicated that borrowers need to seek down payment assistance by no later than the end of August.

We can expect to see a rush of new buyers jumping into the market at the lower end prior to the October 1 deadline.... Stay tuned as we will be watching the numbers for August and September very closely.

Foreclosures:

Foreclosures spiked dramatically in June indicating that there will be a flood of bank-owned properties coming on the market. But, even more dramatic is the number of pre-foreclosures:

According to Realty Trac, the number of pre-foreclosures is 12 in the entire Valley (down from 48 in June and several thousand in May). If this trend continues there is no question that the foreclosure market is about to slow down dramatically.

As soon as the last batch of foreclosures is snapped up by investors and bargain hunters, the window will truly be closing and all those fence-sitters will jump in (possibly too late to take advantage of the real bargains) and start driving prices up again.

Prices and Market Recovery:

If home prices had risen at a normal, steady rate since 2000, the average home will be valued at about that price in September. The market has corrected back to normal levels.

35% of sales in July were foreclosures and averaged a mere $150,000 apiece. While foreclosures may have brought the "average price" down, by the time these averages go up, the market will have already turned three or four months earlier. The supply and demand numbers are driving the activity.

Pre-foreclosures have been drying up for the past two months. The FHA down payment increase and buyer assistance programs will be disappearing by October 1.

These three major factors could be the catalyst to ignite a dramatic and rapid market recovery: Not a matter of "if" but rather a matter of "when".

The Real Estate Market Continues to Recover

Fri, 18 Jul 2008 14:55:57 -0500

By The Numbers

Inventory (supply) down: For the fourth straight month, the total inventory has dropped. We are still in the 50,000's which is high but the trend is down.

Sales (demand) up: Closed sales for June are close to 6000 and double what they were per month during the slump in 2007.

Forecast: pending sales for July are above 7000, so it is safe to conclude that the trend will continue.

The inventory at the current absorption rate (time to clear out the current inventory) has dropped to 9 months from over 20 months in 2007. The last time we saw these numbers was in the Spring of 2007.

Conclusion: The market continues to gain momentum.

Foreclosures

Interesting numbers for June. There are two significant numbers to look at according to Realty Trac, one of the main foreclosure monitoring companies. First of all, in June there was a dramatic jump in the number of foreclosures (properties taken back by lenders). This means there will be continued investment opportunity as banks put these properties back on the market, especially at the lower end of the price spectrum. The other number, foreclosure notices, is very significant if the number holds for another month or two. Currently, foreclosure notices are down dramatically, which may signal an end to the wave of foreclosures coming on the market. We will continue to monitor this number closely. If the wave of new foreclosures ends, then as soon as the last batch of foreclosures are bought up by investors and bargain hunters, the window will completely close and all those fence sitters will jump in (typically too late to take advantage of the real bargains) and start driving prices up again.

Home Prices

Average home prices continue to drop. This started in June of 2006 when the median listing price was at $300,000. The median listing price is now down to $220,000. But, we are about to reach a level that would reflect a normal price increase for the market based on the 2001 to 2004 numbers, where we saw a steady 4-6% increase in values. At the current drop in average prices (driven by the current number of foreclosure deals out there) we should hit the trend line in about 2 months. There is a strong possibility that at that point we will see a rise in average prices and that will truly be a turning point in the market: both in terms of activity and price levels. If all these numbers hold true then the investment window is now down to 60-90 days.

It will be interesting to look back in the fall and see how accurate we were.

GreenAZ July 2008: Cost-Efficient Energy Alternatives and Solutions

Thu, 03 Jul 2008 03:55:58 -0500

New Solar Technology That's Affordable!!

Nanosolar, Inc has developed a production process that will significantly decrease the price of Photovoltaic (PV) sheets. Currently, PV cells cost $3.00 per watt. The new Nanosolar PV sheets (or "Power Sheets") cost $0.30 per watt, which is cheaper than burning coal at $1.00 per watt.

This new development could make solar power mainstream but as of now the new Nanosolar Powersheets are on back order for 3-5 years. The good news is that there are venture capitalists investing in Nanosolar such as the co-founders of google...

In the meantime, there are great incentives in Arizona that still make purchasing and using solar power a wise investment and very appealing..

Arizona Incentives To Go Solar

You can get rebates for installation, tax credits and reduced or no electric bills. You can even sell excess energy to electric companies in some areas.

Please visit the following links to learn more:

http://www.americanpv.com/pdf/res_on/incentivesAZ.pdf

http://www.dependablesolarproducts.com/utility-incentives.shtml

http://www.dependablesolarproducts.com/tax-incentives.shtml

Saving Energy With Insulated Vinyl Siding

While most of us know how to decrease air conditioning and heating consumption in our homes by installing eco windows and doors and by sealing off roof and foundation, many people do not realize that the wood framing in their homes contribute to unnecessary consumption of energy. Did you know that your home loses 20-25% of heat and cooled air due to the wood framing in your home? In addition, because traditional insulation has an R-value (amount that insulation restricts air flow) of 0.15- 0.65, so much air is lost from your home. With insulated vinyl siding, on the other hand, the R-value is 3.96 and you would save hundreds and even thousands of dollars per year on energy bills with insulated vinyl siding.

Please visit vinylsiding.org for more information.

Other Manufacturers: Alcoa Home Exteriors, Alside, CertainTeed, Crane Performance Siding, Heartland Building Products, Mitten Inc., Norandex/Reynolds, KP Building Products, Revere Building Products, RMC/Style Crest and Variform.

The Window of Opportunity is Starting to Close- Don’t Miss Out

Fri, 20 Jun 2008 13:17:08 -0500

Good News Numbers

Sales for May are up 15% from April. Pendings (properties under contract and closing in the next 30 days) are up and the total inventory has dropped for the fourth month in a row. In fact, the numbers for May 2008 are almost exactly the same as they were in July of 2007, when there was a 10-month inventory of properties. This was just before the "perfect storm", when mortgage companies stopped lending under the old rules.

In Tempe there was a dramatic 50% increase in properties sold between April and May and the inventory is now at just 6 months. This is no surprise as ASU parents usually start buying homes and condos for their kids about this time of year.

Short Sales and Bank Foreclosures

There is always a seasonal increase in activity in May and June. Even so, this is a dramatic move considering the market has been flat for six months. A percentage of these sales are short sales and bank foreclosures. Therefore, although sales are up and inventory is starting to drop, the value of homes is still stagnant because the bank sales are keeping prices artificially low. We hear on the street that the banks are under pressure to get rid of their inventory as there is still one last wave of foreclosures on the way. This should cause another up tick in sales.

Market Stabilization

We continue to hear about multiple cash offers being made on bank owned properties close to list price. This means that the bottom of the market will begin to rise and move up toward retail levels (In Tempe, bank owned properties are selling for $110-$100 per square foot and retail price is $130-$140 per square foot.).

This is just in from Realty Times: "Mortgage rates jumped this week after a number of Federal Reserve officials, most notably Chairman Bernanke and Vice Chair Kohn, expressed concern over a threat of inflation," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. "This led some market participants to believe that the Fed will raise rates more aggressively over the year than previously thought."

The window of opportunity is starting to close

Deals are still out there but are highly sought after and may soon be gone. If you are thinking about buying a home in the next 12 months then now is the time. Although we don't predict a dramatic increase in prices in the immediate future, affordability could be affected if interest rates start to climb. All indicators suggest that the window of opportunity is starting to close and that home you have your sights on may no longer be affordable.

Water Conservation Made Simple!!

Thu, 12 Jun 2008 00:57:26 -0500

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Water Harvesting

Water harvesting is practiced around the world and is a great benefit to the community when used on a large scale. You can take steps to contribute and save water by harvesting at home.

Here's how:

• Shape the ground where water falls from the roof of your home so that water is channeled to landscaping.

• Use rain water tanks/barrels to collect and store water that runs off your roof. Usage of the collected water will be dependent on whether or not the water will run through a septic system.

• You can also use any container that will hold water but we don't recommend using the water for drinking or cooking unless it has been treated.

Home Water Conservation

• Install low flow shower heads and aerators on faucets. Make sure all drip problems are fixed (especially toilet leaks) as drips can waste an enormous amount of water over time.

• "One of the most innovative and effective water saving tool is the dual flush toilet, which estimates a savings of 4,000 gallons of water per year." You can purchase a dual flow toilet at Akagreen.com

• Use a pool cover to reduce water evaporation when the pool is not being used.

No-Cost Water Conservation

• Irrigate your yard at night so that water does not evaporate. Adjust your irrigation settings as the seasons change, irrigating less frequently in the winter and spring.

• Periodically check your yard to make sure you don't have any leaks coming from your drip system.

• Run your dishwasher and clothes washer when they are full. Use cold water to wash your clothes as this decreases energy needed to heat the water.

• Put a bucket in the shower while you're waiting for the water to heat up. You can water plants, put the water in the toilet for flushing and whatever else you can think of!

• Turn off water when shaving and brushing your teeth.

• Use a reusable water bottle instead of bottled water. Even though recycling bottled water is better than disposing of it in the trash, it still takes energy to recycle it.