Richard's Blog

30 Yr Mortgage Rates Hit All-Time Low & Other Housing Info

Richard Brody (Port Washington Properties) — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 10:15:29 -0600

30 Yr Mortgage Rates hit all-time low & other housing info

Freddie Mac stated today that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average hit a new low. The 30-year average declined to 4.71% (with an average 0.7 point) for the week ending Dec. 3 from 4.78% last week. This new 30-year average is the lowest since Freddie Mac began its weekly survey in 1971. Last year, the average was 5.53%. Remember that this is the average 30- year rate, which means that many lending institutions are offering even low rates. Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac's chief economist stated, "Low mortgage rates and the cumulative decline in house prices have contributed to an extremely affordable housing market and helped spur home sales this year . . . For instance, total new and existing home sales in October were 36% higher than their January low on a seasonally adjusted, annualized rate, according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors."
So, there is improving news in the housing/ real estate markets. The combination of the Federal housing tax credit, low mortgage rates, lower home prices, and some improvement in consumer belief that the worst of the recession is over, has created this improvement. As we enter the Holiday season, real estate "shopping" historically cools off until after the holiday season. However, this kind of news is hopefully a fore-teller of a better 2010 housing market.
Another promising indication is that the President is finally convening a Jobs-related summit for tomorrow, and hopefully, that will addressed the major weakness in both the housing market as well as the overall economy. Let's hope that our political leaders have finally understood that joblessness is what's keeping our economy from really growing, and they will address some real solutions to that situation. Amongst my suggestions: (1) Incentives for hiring in "progressive" industries, such as alternative energy, technology, etc-- that will NOT ONLY put people back to work, but also support industries will be necessary for the US to reach the next level. As an Ecobroker, I believe that incentives in "green-related" building and renovations will boost the economy, help the joblessness situation, and make houses more sustainable for now and the future; (2) Make the joblessness challenge the #1 Economic Priority; (3) Create incentives so that progressive industries benefit by hiring people, than by the cost-savings side-effects of layoffs. Let's put America back to work again!

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Black Friday, Cyber-Moday, US Economy, Recession & What it May Mean!

Richard Brody (Port Washington Properties) — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 09:43:32 -0600

The preliminary figures have been released regarding Black Friday, and depending on how you wish to view it, the numbers are either bad news, so-so news, or good news. Apparently more Americans purchased on Black Friday, but their average spending was down about 5-10% for the day, and the total retail sales were either flat, or slightly lower. Since today is so-called Cyber-Monday, we do not know yet what these numbers will show, but more retailers are offering Cyber-Monday sales than ever before!
So, what does that mean? Well, the good news is, that despite the ongoing recession, despite the high joblessness rate, despite the credit tightening (many of the larger banks have tightened, eliminated, reduced credit lines, and increased credit card interest rates charged, while changing their installment payment features, thus requiring higher minimum payments), despite the fact that merchants are being quite conservative about inventory-on-hand, more Americans are still buying gifts, and the total spent has not been reduced significantly. Also, many retailers began their promotions early or are stretching them out over a longer period of time, which makes the Black Friday numbers even more positive! Granted last year's holiday season was not a robust one for retailers, but considering the cost-saving measures many companies have implemented, I feel the overall indicators are positive ones.
I am guessing that the Cyber-Monday results will either parallel the stores, or be slightly better than the store results. These numbers might be slightly skewed also because of many sites stretching this sale period out over a longer period of time. I am of the belief that there will be a higher than usual number of last-minute shoppers this holiday season, but that retailers will have to be creative as well as use discounting to attract more shoppers. I also feel that consumers will still purchase for the holidays, but that the average spending per shopper will be somewhat lower than in the past.
Since many manufacturers are suffering like retailers and consumers, many manufacturers are offering discounts and/ or incentives to retailers at a much greater rate this season than in the past. That is also a factor in the lower consumer purchasing averages.
Having gone to a few stores, malls, and warehouse clubs both on Black Friday as well as on Saturday, it is obvious that this season is being kinder to some stores than others, and to some malls than others. On Black Friday, WalMart was packed for the Early Bird sales, butr much quieter the rest of the day. The store Friday afternoon looked like it must have been "packed and ransacked" in the morning, but was simply messy and not fully re-stocked on Friday afternoon. The warehouse clubs seemed to be doing business as usual on Friday! On Saturday, I went to two different malls, and while one mall seemed very quiet, the other was very busy. Some stores were obviously much busier than others. Yet, for example, the Apple Store at one mall seemed relatively quiet, while at the other mall was busy.
We need to start adopting the "half-full" instead of "half-empty" philosophy, or this recession will stretch out and linger longer than it would on its own. All too often, too many of the so-called "experts" analyze each piece of data independently, without trying to understand some of the many causes. Daily discussions of the prices of gold, oil, and the stock indexes. are as misguided as people looking for "quick kills" in purchasing stocks rather than long-term outlooks. Historically, investors who use "dollar-cost averaging" have out-performed most others, because they do not fall victim to normal and abnormal market swings. We all need to "sit back and chill out" and look at things through a broader window, and figure out the best long-term strategies.
Let's remember that when George Bush became President he inherited a budget surplus. By the time he left office eight years later, instead of a surplus there was a $400 Billion plus deficit. A little more than ten months after President Obama took office, the US deficit now exceeds $1.4 Trillion. We need to understand that deficit financing has long-term impacts and ramifications, and the US cannot simply keep spending without a plan for repaying it. That is why our dollar is so weak, even though the recession is a world-wide challenge, not just an American one.
Weak housimg markets, high foreclosure rates, high joblessness rates, etc., cannot and are not balanced out solely by spending and low interest rates. America must reconfigure our economy to make it stronger and more productive! We need to get people back to work, and keep them working. That should be the major thrust of our government's activities now-- on the Federal, State and Local Levels. Demand that from your government leaders!

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Housing News Updated & Evaluated

Richard Brody (Port Washington Properties) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 10:29:01 -0600

The most recent housing report showed that sales for October 2009 were up 10.1% over October 2008. While that is certainly promising news, it must be considered in light of a few factors. The first factor was, of course, that October 2008 numbers were so dismal that even with an increase, there is plenty of room for improvement. Then, we must remember that some closings last month occurred as a result of the First Time Housing Credit, and the uncertainty at that time over whether it would be extended (remember it was originally set to expire at end of November). The continuation of historically low mortgage rates has certainly also helped. In addition, while sales were up, the average price of a house sold last month versus a year before is down, so, in other words, houses are still selling for less than in the past.
The good news are indications are that the worst of the recession is probably past us, consumer confidence seems to have improved slightly, mortgage rates should remain low for the foreseeable future (and hopefully the government will apply pressures on lenders to lend!), home prices are more affordable, the Home buying credit has been BOTH extend and enhanced, and most economists are calling for the U.S. economy to improve somewhat throughout 2010. The less-happy news is the high joblessness rate, the uncertainty in the economy, less than stellar public consumer confidence, and a seemingly prevailing attitude that "there is no rush" to do anything, and the overall wait-and-see attitude.
We have gone from a decade of a "seller's market" in the housing market, to a mixed market, to a buyer's market (where unfortunately NOT enough buyers are taking advantage - - - either being unwilling, afraid, or unable to). The real estate market has always been cyclical, and this market is the same in that way. We are probably at or near the bottom of the market now, and 2010 should probably see the beginning of the recovery. Those in a position to take advantage should do so now, because the combination of tax advantages, low prices and low mortgage rates have brought the true cost of home purchasing down significantly.
The industry and those interested in having a sound and robust housing market should implore their elected officials to address the most pressing economic issues now --- joblessness (and job creation), consumer confidence, responsible economic policies, and continued incentives that benefits consumers instead of just large corporations!

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The most recent housing report showed that sales for October 2009 were up 10.1% over October 2008. While that is certainly promising news, it must be considered in light of a few factors. The first factor was, of course, that October 2008 numbers were so dismal that even with an increase, there is plenty of room for improvement. Then, we must remember that some closings last month occurred as a result of the First Time Housing Credit, and the uncertainty at that time over whether it would be extended (remember it was originally set to expire at end of November). The continuation of historically low mortgage rates has certainly also helped. In addition, while sales were up, the average price of a house sold last month versus a year before is down, so, in other words, houses are still selling for less than in the past.
The good news are indications are that the worst of the recession is probably past us, consumer confidence seems to have improved slightly, mortgage rates should remain low for the foreseeable future (and hopefully the government will apply pressures on lenders to lend!), home prices are more affordable, the Home buying credit has been BOTH extend and enhanced, and most economists are calling for the U.S. economy to improve somewhat throughout 2010. The less-happy news is the high joblessness rate, the uncertainty in the economy, less than stellar public consumer confidence, and a seemingly prevailing attitude that "there is no rush" to do anything, and the overall wait-and-see attitude.
We have gone from a decade of a "seller's market" in the housing market, to a mixed market, to a buyer's market (where unfortunately NOT enough buyers are taking advantage - - - either being unwilling, afraid, or unable to). The real estate market has always been cyclical, and this market is the same in that way. We are probably at or near the bottom of the market now, and 2010 should probably see the beginning of the recovery. Those in a position to take advantage should do so now, because the combination of tax advantages, low prices and low mortgage rates have brought the true cost of home purchasing down significantly.
The industry and those interested in having a sound and robust housing market should implore their elected officials to address the most pressing economic issues now --- joblessness (and job creation), consumer confidence, responsible economic policies, and continued incentives that benefits consumers instead of just large corporations!

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Why is economic news is so confusing to understand?

Richard Brody (Port Washington Properties) — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 10:29:43 -0600

No wonder most people don't understand the economy. Often what might seem good on one hand, has bad side effects on the other. For example, the stock market rises- one would think that was good! But that was mostly due to the rising price of oil- bad news. But the price of oil is rising because the "experts" believe the economy is improving and thus more oil will be needed in production- good news! But that rise in oil prices causes the cost of living to increase- bad news. But that helps the Gross Domestic Product (GDP)- good news! But that then causes inflation- bad news. But that inflation means the economy is improving- good news! But then the Fed becomes concerned about inflation and raises interest rates- bad news! Which causes the value of the dollar to improve- good news! But that hurts exports because now American products cost more overseas- bad news! But that means foreign products cost less in the US- good news! But that hurts American companies competetiveness- bad news!
And so on, etc. So you see why economic news often seems co confusing. Because it is- what is good for one consumer, might be bad for another- what is good for one company, bad for another- what might be good for one sector of economy- bad for others.
The stock market is often the most confusing. On days when there is "bad news," the market often goes up, while on some "good news" days, the market sometimes goes down! While the Dow, or the S&P, etc., might go up, it does NOT mean that the stock(s) you own, will follow suit.
Too often, for the sake of a sound-byte, the media tries to over-simplify economic news. Yet the economy is by definition quite complex.
The one issue there should be some agreement on is that high unemployment is not good. Yet even in that case, the "experts" can't agree upon, nor act upon a viable solution.
The best way to think about the economy is this-- the difference between a recession and a depression is that it's a recession when it happens to someone else-- it's a depression when it happens to you!
It is my belief that a healthy economy requires certain factors to be in place - - low joblessness; high consumer confidence; a strong manufacturing sector; and reduced government deficits. That is what we must demand!

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US Economy-what's perception vs reality

Richard Brody (Port Washington Properties) — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 09:47:45 -0600

It seems that every day there is another economic report out that different individuals interpret differently. Today, the joblessness report showed that "only" 502,000 new unemployment claims were made, which was 10,000 less than the previous month and 8,000 less than anticipated. The "gurus" jumped all over this report, letting us know that this was economic news. Although it probably was good news because things were getting significantly worse, it certainly wasn't good news for the 502,000 individuals putting in new unemployment claims. And this was on top of the over 10% already receiving regular and extended unemployment benefits, not to mention those who have taken lesser work or given up looking (estimates are a total of approximately 17.5%).
Also, in today's news, WalMart announced its 3Q economkic figures, and the net revenue was better than anticipated. That could be interpreted as good news, or not so good if one factors in that the increased net was based on lower than anticipated revenues, which means that obviously WalMart had made some "efficiencies" to improve its numbers.
Over 80% of the companies reporting 3Q figures have reported better than anticipated numbers. Does that mean that we are gradually coming out of the recession (hopefully), or that companies are cutting jobs making themselves more profitable, or that the "experts" are under-estimating, or some combination of the three? It all depends on PERCEPTION.
Most experts believe that the worst of the recession has passed, and that there will be gradual, but slow improvement during 2010. Historically, companies begin recovery periods by hiring part-time workers before they add full-time employees. However, since the average number of hours the American worker has dropped to only 33 hours per week, will companies then simply have existing workers put in a little more time. I believe that this figure of number of average hours per week will be a significant one to look at when we want to see how much progress is being made in getting out of the recession.
The housing market is an important one to follow as an indicator of the economy. Government incentives have slightly shored up the housing market, but it will not bounce back until there is some restoration of consumer confidence. For anyone who is in a position to buy a house, there has rarely been this great a buying situation, when you consider the combination of relatively low prices, low mortgage rates (average 30 year mortgage rates dropped today to 4.91%), tax incentives, and selection on market. Yet, many potential buyers are still adopting a "wait-and-see" approach, and just taking their time. Most experts believe that home prices, and mortgage interest rates will nudge up toward the second half of 2010. Again, consumer confidence and perception is a primary factor in this evaluation.
So, what is really going on? Huge US deficits, a weak US dollar, a recession, high joblessness and under-employment, are all unfortunate realities. Corporations have reacted by making themselves more cost-efficient, but unfortunately that exacerbates the unemployment challenge. The economy does not appear to be getting any worse! The next important step is to see how consumer confidence reacts. Halloween shopping was nearly 30% down this year, and if Christmas shopping bounces back somewhat, that will be an important indicator that consumer confidence is increasing. Many major retailers have already announced that they will beging "Black Friday" sales early, and be more aggressive in their marketing this season. Hopefully, some of the seasonal employment will be extended and we see a restoration in the job area as early as the second quarter of 2010. Vacation travel during the holidays, and overall travel in January and February of next year, will also be important indicators of consumer confidence.
Since most experts believe that one of the driving forces in creating this recession is the high cost of energy, job creation should be created by having the government create alternative energy incentives, and for hiring and re-training into that industry. T.Boone Pickens has promoted heavily his Pickens Plan, with the goal of US energy independence, by using alternative energy (he prefers windmills), and natural gas (because of its abundance in the US). Creating jobs in this area would be a short-term and a long-term solution, because it addresses not only employment, but a stronger US energy policy.
The American electorate must demand from it's politicians that they become leaders. Leadership and statesmanship means that "polls" should not dictate policy, but that they need to be effective problem solvers. It can be done, and must be done, for the U.S. to again become the strongest economy in the world. I truly believe that if the American public clearly demands "real change," instead of empty promises, we can "jump-start" our economy, and consumer confidence. I urge you all to join with me.

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SORTING THROUGH TODAY'S ECONOMIC NEWS

Richard Brody (Port Washington Properties) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 10:39:47 -0600

Last night, news media were reporting that they anticipated the jobless rate to rise slightly to 9.9%. At around the same time, it was announced that President Obama would today sign into law a bill that would: (1) extend unemployment benefit eligibility by up to an additional 20 weeks (meaning to a maximum of 99 weeks, if eligible- the maximum is for those 26 states where unemployment exceeds 8.5%); (2)extend and enhance the New Homebuyers Credit from November 30th until June 30th (This bill requires going into contract by April 30th and closing by June 30th). This bill will now NOT only provide first time buyers a tax credit of up to $8,000, but would extend to homeowners who've lived in their present home at least five of the last eight years (at a credit of up to $6,500); and (3) a modification of the law for businesses that have had losses to offset gains for more years back than the present law permits, thus hopefully freeing up cash flow for corporations.
Early this morning, the official joblessness rate was announced as a higher than anticipated 10.2%, the highest unemployment rate in 26 years. What is even more disconcerting is that this figure does not account for those no longer seeking employment, or working part-time, or in much lower positions. In addition, the average US worker's work-week is now averaging approximately 33 hours per week, one of the lowest averages in many years. One would therefore expect that the stock market would have a "correction" from yesterday's increase, and stock market indexes did indeed open sharply lower this morning.
What this means is that our political leaders need to seriously and immediately address the most urgent economic condition facing this nation today - - - unemployment and under- employment! While I believe the bill being signed today is both necessary and helpful, we now need to apply pressure on elected officials to use some "common sense solutions" to address both employment and other economic issues. Unfortunately, it is uncommon for political leaders to use "common sense." (Is a political leader using common sense an oxymoron?)
When I consult to a business, organization, or individual, I explore alternatives and explain all possible ramifications of actions or inactions. Isn't it about time our politicians did the same thing?

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Some Interesting News

Richard Brody (Port Washington Properties) — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 10:46:06 -0600

Today, FNMA appeared to be prepared to alter its established policy regarding foreclosures on properties they control. It appears that they have made the decision to rent out these distressed properties instead of foreclosing and selling them. If this policy is maintained, it would go a long way toward stabilizing housing because it would somewhat reduce the "supply side" of homes by removing these distressed properties from the marketplace. The net effect of that should eventually be shoring up home prices, as well as reducing the amount of average days on market for houses listed for sale. It would also reduce "bottom-feeding" tendencies, and create a more realistically priced housing market.
In addition, the Fed's decision this week to maintain low interest rates for the foreseeable future, should help keep mortgage interest rates close to the low levels they currently are at. In addition, news about the Fed and certain large public companies working together to share the risk on distressed properties/ loans, should eventually loosen the mortgage lending market to some degree.
The recent election results have also indicated that people have become "fed up" with the high taxes they are paying. If this then translates into finally addressing the high real estate taxes paid in certain areas of the country, this will also help the housing market.
There also seems to finally be some awareness that we must control our energy costs, and if that rhetoric translates into some action, it would be another positive for the housing market and real estate industry.
Finally, if our politicians now get the message that the joblessness issue has to be addressed, and Americans begin to see some job creation and consumer confidence, then there will be a rebound in the housing market.
The consensus is that the housing market has or nearly has bottomed out. Therefore, 2010 should be a much better year.

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STAY VIGILANT RE HOME BUYING CREDIT EXTENSION!

Richard Brody (Port Washington Properties) — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 09:49:14 -0600

Ever since Senator Reid's office announced that the Senate would be extending and enhancing the 1st Time Homebuyers Credit, there has been much less "buzz" around stating the urgency of doing that. My fear is that we are being lulled into apathy and the "it's going to happen" mode, while politicians play typical political games. The present credit is scheduled to expire November 30th, and we are already entering into the traditional slow season for real estate (just what we need on top of the present real estate reality). The market and the economy needs further jump starting, and this credit is one of the few government stimuli out there that goes directly to the American consumer. Remember that a healthy real estate market not only helps realtors, buyers and sellers, buit also helps mortgage brokers and banks, building trades including laborers and suppliers, builders, rtc. This credit is an example of the "trickle up" theory at it's best!
Realtors, bankers, homeowners, homebuyers, consumers, building trades, etc. must contact their representatives and senators, and let then know, that we want and need action NOW! Every day without this extention in place hurts the marketplace.
This extension should be a "no-brainer." Unfortunately, many politicians are just that - - politicians who are constantly running, instead of statesman who are governing. Tell your politicians that we want and need statesman NOW, and we will demonstrate that at the polls. This is NOT a Republican, Democrat, Conservative or Liberal issue - - this is an issue of helping to repair and mend our economy. Tell them all to do it NOW!

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FINALLY SOME GOOD ECONOMIC NEWS- But stay active!

Richard Brody (Port Washington Properties) — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 09:02:27 -0500

The 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures came out, and the GDP grew by a better than anticipated 3.5%, the best GDP news and first growth in a year. Senate Democratic Majority Leader Harry Reid's office has announced preliminary agreement on BOTH extension of, and enhancement to, the 1st Time Homebuyers Credit. The agreement in the Senate calls for extension of the credit which was scheduled to expire at the end of November to April 30th contract dates, as long as the closing is by end of June. The enhancement to the credit calls for a lesser credit (but still a very significant $6,500 credit) to be given to people who wish to sell one house and purchase another, as long as they lived in their first house at least five years. While critics say that people would have bought houses anyway, even if there was no credit, common sense shows that since there was a spike in 1st time house sales during that period, saying "it would have happened anyway," may be no more than political posturing. Of course, for this to take effect, the full Senate and House have to agree, and the President needs to sign into law. If you believe, as I do, that it is better to help people than the big corporations and banks (many of which got into trouble because of either their own greed or mismanagement), then I urge you to let your government officials know that you want this credit extension and enhancement.
Studies indicate that an essential part of economic recovery is a health housing market. These steps will help create that during this crucial time period. Most economists believe that the worst of the recession will be over by the end of the 2nd quarter of 2010, and so this "shoulder" period that the credit will help solidify is truly urgent.
We must also urge our elected officials to address the joblessness rate, putting people back to work in retrained positions, to help the US regain its position among the elite economies of the world. We have been let to believe that this is a worldwide crisis, which by and large it is. However, nations like Norway have very low unemployment rates (estimates are between 1.8%- 2%) because they have positioned themselves toward energy independence. China is another example of a country which has benefited from the economic weakness of other nations during this time (for example, a Chinese company is in soloe discussions with Ford to purchase Volvo, and another Chinese company has discussed purchasing Hummer).
We need to build upon these promising bits of economic news, and urge that our government officials understand that our number one priority has to be restoring the economy, reducing joblessness, and a health housing market. If the US does not have that as a base, then there will be little chance of other programs succeeding. We, as a nation, cannot continue to have huge and growing deficits, without a sound plan for recovery.
We also need to let politicians know that we are tired of empty rhetoric, but need detailed thinking that considers both the long-term and short-term ramifications of our actions.

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EXTEND THE HOME BUYER'S CREDIT

Richard Brody (Port Washington Properties) — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 09:22:03 -0500

As always, politicans are endlessly debating and posturing regarding the extention of the First Time Home Buyer's Credit, presently scheduled to expire on November 30th. It is interesting that there is still no extention, considering that most experts credit this Credit with reinvigorating a badly sagging real estate market. Nationally, it is estimated that home prices have now come back- to 2003 prices. The third quarter of 2009 actually showed an increase in sales, in most parts of the country.

However, there is still much uncertainty in today's economy. Polls show consumer confidence has not yet been restored, and that the major concerns are the recession and job security (high joblessness rate). Historically, a healthy housing market is essential to a properly functioning economy. While the stock market has come back more than 25% from its recent low, it is still far below the level of a couple of years ago. The extention of the housing credit is an effective way to keep the housing market stable.

At this time, we not only need an extention of the 1st Time Housing Credit, but an expansion of the program, so that more individuals are covered. Items that should be expanded include: Income requirements (allowable income should be increased); Broader, looser definition of 1st time Buyer should be utilized; Partial Credit should be considered for anyone purchasing more expensive house; etc.

I urge everyone to contact their elected officials as soon as possible, and urge them to both extend and expand the Home Buyers Credit.

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HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

Richard Brody (Port Washington Properties) — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 10:13:43 -0500

According to data released today, housing sales have now risen in the US for three months in a row. Home prices in most areas have also stopped their decline, and in most areas are nudging upward. Many factors are probably responsible for this including: the 1st time buyers credit; low mortgage interest rates; polls showing slight improvement in consumer confidence regarding the economy; economic projections for the worst of the recession to be ending in either the 1st or 2nd quarter of 2010; a slight increase in availability of mortgage money; an improvement in stock market performance; etc.

However, not all areas of the country have seen the same trend. Real estate marketing and sales remains an entity peculiar to local areas. This means that one community may see its real estate market rebound before another, just as the drop in the market started in certain areas before others.

We are entering into a period where there may never be a better time to purchase a house. Of course, only those who are somewhat financially secure, with good credit, will be able to take advantage of this. And the high joblessness rate combined with little optimism on that front in the short-term, have created the major stumbling block to the housing market recovery.

The most important way to help the housing market is to lower the joblessness rate. Those truly interested in a timely economic recovery should urge our political leaders to make their #1 priorit

HOUSING SALES

Richard Brody (Port Washington Properties) — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 09:15:11 -0500

The most important way to help the housing market is to lower the joblessness rate. Those truly interested in a timely economic recovery should urge our political leaders to make their #1 priority!

MORTGAGE RATES DOWN!

Richard Brody (Port Washington Properties) — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 10:51:41 -0500

Benchmark mortgage rates were just announced as being reduced to approximately 4.84%. This is the LOWEST rate since May, and over one percent lower than it was a year ago. This has created a double digit percentage increase in mortgage applications, as well. If a potential buyer has good credit, and if the house comps out, it means that today's buyer can get a LOT MORE HOUSE for a MUCH LOWER MONTHLY PAYMENT.

The Fed has given indications that they do not intend imminently to raise rates, but most economists believe that by the second quarter of 2010, there is a probably that interest rates will begin to move up. All of this is complicated by the decrease in the value of the dollar related to foreign currencies, the uncertain energy situation, the rise in the price of gold (which means that many believe inflation is next), the uncertain job market (becaause even though many believe recession has bottomed or near-bottomed, the jobless rate is still startling, and is lagging behind dramatically).

Therefore, if you have savings, can afford 20% down, have good credit, and decent job security, this may be the best home buying market in quite a long time - - - past, present or future.

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OCTOBER 1 REAL ESTATE UPDATE

Richard Brody (Port Washington Properties) — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 09:05:23 -0500

The real estate market appears to have either bottomed out, or neared the bottom in terms of pricing, length of time sales take, and units sold. While we still appear to be far from it becoming another Seller's Market, the days of the buyer having such a big advantage seem to probably be near the end. Some of the reasons include:

1) Mortgage Interest Rates are still at or near historic lows. Eventually the Fed will once again ease up on interest rates, permitting them to gradually increase. They will probably state that they are doing it to stem inflation, and that the time is now right. That is probably political economic talk, but remember the next Federal election is over a year away!

2) Housing prices have dropped dramatically in many markets, causing additional buyer interest.

3) Eventually, the recession will ease somewhat, and the job market will improve. First, there will be more part-time positions available, followed by more full-time employment. That will mean that there will be more potential buyers.

4) Many are predicting that by the middle of 2010, the economy will begin to show recovery. That should cause consumer confidence.

5) The stock market went up over 15% in the 3rd Quarter. Most do NOT believe that this quarter will show the same increase, but if consumers begin to feel more confident, historically the real estate market benefits.

6) Many believe that the Federal Government will extend the First Time Buyers Credit. If that occurs, the housing market will benefit also.

While none of us have "crystal balls," many of us believe that 2010 will be a far better year for real estate than 2009 was.

MORE PEOPLE ARE BEGINNING TO LOOK

Richard Brody (Port Washington Properties) — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 09:32:45 -0500

Are we near the end of this chapter of the "extreme buyers market?" Over the last few months, the number of people looking at houses listed on the market has gradually, but consistently increased. Many are only shoppers, trying to find out how much the market price of homes have decreased. But many others are beginning to seriously consider purchasing a house.

They realize that mortgage interest rates are still quite low, and probably will NOT remain that way for long. They realize that the First Time Buyers credit is scheduled to end at the end of November, and that to qualify they have to close by that date. They realize that prices have come down, in some markets considerably, and that some sellers, especially those who have had their homes up for sale folr quite some time, are more "flexible" than they once were. They realize that because of the economy, many homeowners have to sell their homes because they can no longer afford the expense.

Yet others still are wary of the economy, afraid of their lack of perceived job security, and therefore are waiting to do anything. Others are waiting because they don't think the market has yet bottomed! While nobody has a crystal ball, the people in the first group are somewhat understandable, but the people in the latter are probably sacrificing a great buying opportunity.

House prices have always been cyclical, but over the long run have been one of the few "investments" that have outpaced inflation. If someone can afford a home right now, there may never be a much better buying opportunity than there is at the present time.

I urge evryone to examine the market, speak to an ethical real estate professional, and "take the plunge," if their situation dictates!

BELIEVE IN YOUR OWN VALUE AS A REALTOR

Richard Brody (Port Washington Properties) — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 10:30:43 -0500

How often I hear realtors try to explain away the commission by running away from the subject! There is NO reason to hide from the fact that realtors charge commissions. How do clients and customers think we get paid? A real estate professional must be able to both confidently and competently explain his value- professional service; expert pricing; qualified buyers; state of the art marketing; convenience; and keeping his client informed. It is important today for a real estate professional to utilize the latest technology, NOT for show BUT to improve service and performance. Leads MUST be followed up immediately! Today's real estate necessitates the use of a "smart phone," to answer e-mails, etc. quickly and competently. Most MLS systems have programs written specifically for use on smart phones - - - saavy buyers and sellers should demand real estate for today's market!

IF THE RECESSION IS OVER, WILL THE HOUSING MARKET FOLLOW?

Richard Brody (Port Washington Properties) — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 10:40:10 -0500

For the last two years, all we have heard was how bad things are! Obviously, if buyers hear that all the time, they will react accordingly. So if we now believe what we are hearing, that the economy is improving, and that recession should soon be over, then how will that be communicated to buyers, to create that buying urge once again?

When will fear be over, and a balanced market once again be restored? I have NEVER seen anyone that can absolutely"time" the bottom of a market, but all indications is that we are certainly getting close to that point. Since the first time buyers credit is set to retire at the end of November, and mortgage interest rates are still very low, we may be at a historic buying opportunity.

HAVE WE HIT BOTTOM YET?

Richard Brody (Port Washington Properties) — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 10:10:16 -0500

Fed Chairman Bernake recently says he believed that the recession is nearly over. Mortgage interest rates have seemed to level, and most believe that rates are as low as they are going to go. More buyers are looking at houses again, but they are VERY slow to act. There is still NO sense of urgency. Housing prices have dropped dramatically from their highs a few years ago, and so have rents. There is an abudance of apartments available - - - more than in years!

Are we at the absolute bottom? Probably not, since unemployment is still very high. However, historically employment rehiring tends to lag behind economic recovery! Most economists believe that much of this economic downturn has been "psychological" in the sense that it was a reaction to a reaction, more than a reaction to any type of specific event.

From a real estate point of view, we are probably very near bottom, and we should certainly begin to act accordingly. This buyers market will probably gradually turn to a balanced market within the next year, so serious and qualified buyers should heed this and begin their search in earnest. Remember it is never possible to catch the absolute bottom of any market!

DATA ONLY TELLS PART OF THE STORY

Richard Brody (Port Washington Properties) — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 11:06:13 -0500

Real estate data can be very misleading! When you hear that house prices are up or down, what is that compared to? Is it compared to last month, six months ago, a year ago, two years ago, when the market was at it's peak! The same is true with housing starts figures, home sales, etc.

The best way to analyze the situation is, if you had the money, would you buy something, sell something, hold on, or panic? That is the same strategy that any financial planner would tell you to follow regarding any investment. And for most people, their home is their single biggest investments.

House prices rose for so long that at some point there was going to be a pricing correction. There are so many factors that affect the housing market - - - some are real, some psychological or emotional - - - but all have tremendous impacts on the housing market. Just as the stock market has come back significantly from it's low, but is still far from the high, the housing market will slowly rebound also. Just as with stocks, a home buyer should not try to guess when the actual bottom will be reached. Most analysts believe we are very near that point, if we haven't already reached it. Therefore, it is probably a good time to take advantage of this potentially historic buying opportunity.

HAVE WE REACHED THAT BUYING OPPORTUNITY?

Richard Brody (Port Washington Properties) — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 09:57:07 -0500

Mortgage rates are still close to their historic lows! People with decent credit and 20% down can finally qualify again! First time buyers have until November 30th to close on a house, to still get the $8,000 tax credit! Prices have come down significantly, and their are plenty of choices!

So we should all agree that we have finally reached a classic BUYERS MARKET! Most experts believe house prices are at or near their lows! Then, why aren't more people taking advantage of this? My best guess is that it is FEAR, and not feeling comfortable with the overall U.S. economy.

All things being considered, however, we are closest to a GREAT buying opportunity in this generation.

Are we there yet?

Richard Brody (Port Washington Properties) — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 10:08:35 -0500

Have we reached the bottom of the real estate price level? No one knows for sure, but most experts have predi cted that the tumble is mostly over, and with mortgage rates low (and much more likely to rise than fall in the near future), there may not be a better time to buy! Most buyers should concentrate on their monthly payment (which includes principal, interest, escrow, taxes), and an increase in mortgage rate increases this monthly payment far more than a slight price increase!

Qualified buyers are now in the driver's seat, and should seriously consider taking advantage of that fact, and acting soon! Find a house that you like, with the features that you want, and negotiate in earnest. You are probably making one of the most important decisions of your lifetime.

Today's Agent Responsibilities

Richard Brody (Port Washington Properties) — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 08:50:52 -0500

The combination of lowered house prices, historic lower interest rates, and overall economic conditions, makes this real estate market ideal for the quality buyer with good credit, and money for a downpayment. The new homeowners incentive, where new homebuyers receive an $8,000 tax credit, makes this a buying opportunity that may not exist for years to come.

If someone plans to live in their new house for more than 7 years, go out and find an affordable home that meets your need, negotiate your best price, and find your dream house NOW!

But, buyers MUST demand that their real estate professional clearly disclose, first by giving them a NYS Disclosure form on the "first substantive meeting," indicating whether the buyer/ agent relationship will be as a Seller's Agent, Broker's Agent, or Buyer's Agent. It MUST be made clear the difference between being a customer or a client, and what each statuses mean and represent. It is the responsibility of the agent to act in the capacity agreed to - - - either representing the buyer or the seller - - - or as a duel agent if disclosed to both buyer and seller. All too often this line is blurred, which is unfair to both the buyer and the seller.

My advice to any buyer is if a real estate professional does NOT present them with the NYS disclosure form right away, BE VERY CAREFUL! These forms were created to protect both buyer and seller, and while they can be confusing at first glance, are very important safety valves. In these times, a real estate professionals primary duty is to "tell what the customer/ client NEEDS to know, NOT just what he wants to hear."

Real Estate- Crisis or Opportunity?

Richard Brody (Port Washington Properties) — Thu, 05 Feb 2009 10:55:11 -0600

If someone purchased a house in the last couple of years, put a lot of money into it, and want to sell today at a much higher price, this market will probably disappoint. But only if you are also not buying something else to live in. Because the losses on the sale will be made up for by the lower price paid for the new house, and with historic low mortgage rates, there could very possibly be a good opportunity.

Today's housing market has created opportunities to people with reasonable credit, who have the downpayment, and want affordable monthly payments, because the low mortgage rate translates to many hundreds of dollars in savings. In many ways, there has never been a better time to buy.

Do your homework, analyze costs, find a great house, and "go for it!" Enough of the gloom and doom attitude - - - long term, especially if you plan to live in your new home for several years, there has never been a better buying opportunity!

BUYING WITH CREDIT?-- It's never been a better time!

Richard Brody (Port Washington Properties) — Thu, 31 Jul 2008 10:09:56 -0500

If you are in the market for a house, and you have good credit, the time has NEVER been better! Mortgage rates are still near their low, but indications are that they will probably begin edging upward in the forseeable future! Prices have dropped in almost all marketplaces, and most would describe conditions today as a "BUYER's MARKET!" Most sellers are more flexible than they have been recently!

My recommendation - - - serious buyers should hire a "buyer's agent," who will represent them and work for them! A good "buyer's agent" should be able to negotiate in the buyer's behalf, and get the best possible situation for them! Buyer's should also consider having an energy audit of some sort, so that they know their true costs. Any appliances that are replaced should be replaced with Energy Star appliances, etc.

Go to my website at: www.portwashingtonlongislandhouses.com, and look at the links to Energy Audits, Green Blogs, Ecobroker, and other housing related green sites. Also look at my link to Real Estate Cyberspace Society, to see all the ways that the internet can be helpful to both buyers and sellers.

Which way are mortgage rates going?

Richard Brody (Port Washington Properties) — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 10:47:45 -0500

Who knows? Thus far in 2008, one third fewer houses have been sold in this area than in the same period in 2007. Prices are down in this area of Long Island, although not nearly as much as in other regions of the country. Mortgage rates have held relatively steady, although it is far more difficult to qualify for a mortgage, and the "comps" are considerably lower than last year. That means that a homebuyer needs better credit, needs to put a larger downpayment, and that lending institutions are much stricter about the amount they will value a house at, to determine how much they will lend.

Many are predicting that interest rates have dropped as much as the Federal Reserve will let it go, because while there are many economic challenges at the present time, the fear of inflation will probably prevent the Fed from letting interest rates drop further. It is important to remember that for many years mortgage rates rested at about 8 1/2%. Therefore, from a historical standpoint, we have been in an historically low mortgage rate period for many years. Nobody knows for certain how long that will remain, but many believe today's low mortgage rates are unlikely to remain low forever.

This situation offers great opportunities to anyone considering "buying up," because, although the house being sold will likely be below last year's levels, the house being bought will also, and if one is trading up, that combination, plus low mortgage rates, offers a fabulous buying opportunity.

For anyone serious about selling, it is essential to "price their house right from the start." Historically, the best offers are received in the first month after a house is listed on the market.

I call my marketing system RICH IDEAS because I combine a 22-POINT service guarantee, the ultimate in technological and cyberspace service, personal guidance and service, and realistic "right to sell" pricing.