We had 52 closed sales in the Moonridge area for the past 90 days. There are 110 active Moonridge listings, and 27 pending in escrow. We have a 6.47 month supply of inventory at the current rate of sale. 12 of the 52 closed sales were Bank Owned and 5 were Short Sales.
The price differential shown above tells us that the homes in Moonridge that are selling, sell very close to list price. This isn't surprising to me, price is the most important factor in this market. When a home is priced correctly it will sell, it's really that simple. Knowing what price to list at is by far the most important decision a seller must make. List price should be based on market conditions and not a sellers perception or need. Banks are making this more apparent, they are not emotionally attached to homes. Bank owned properties are being priced based upon comparable sales, and nothing else. This is why the bank owned homes sold in Moonridge have an average of 30 days on the market and all of the other types of sellers are averaging 144 days in the Moonridge area. That's almost 5 times as long as the average bank owned listing.
When I look deeper at the statistics, the bank owned homes sold have a price differential of 98.82%, and the other types of sellers are at 93.60% of list. During the extra days on the market the sellers were chasing the market with price reductions until they finally get their homes price to match the market, and then like magic they sell! This is good, but not great. One thing that happens in this scenario is that the buyer sees that the home has been on the market 100 days or more and decides that the seller must be motivated to take less. This generates a lower offer, thus the 93.60% price differential.
First impression of value creates a sense of urgency in buyers, once lost the buyer assumes you are over priced. If not, why didn't someone put in an offer?
If you would like to discuss the Big Bear Real Estate market, please give me a call.
It seems like everybody has a story about a cousin or brother in law or long lost Uncle who offered half of the asking price on a foreclosure and got it. It has almost reached urban legend status in this market. I have bad news for people that believe this story. There are no giant alligators in the sewer. If you say Bloody Mary three times in front of a mirror, she will not appear. Even more terrifying, there are no bank owned properties in Big Bear that you can buy for half of the list price.
As a matter of fact, writing lowball offers is a sure way of losing out on a property you might really like. When an asset manager sees an offer that is over 10-15% low, they automatically put that offer into the crank file. Usually, they don't even bother countering an offer that low. When they do counter, it is usually for $100.00 off of the listing price. The only thing that happens when you write a really low offer is you lose all your credibility. Instead of coming off as a serious, viable buyer who is looking for a good deal, you come off as a shyster trying pick the bones of an unfortunate soul.
When a bank prices an REO property, they don't just pick a random number. They don't price it off of what the remaining loan is. They actually have Realtors give them price opinions on current market value. Then, they price the home at a fair market price. Usually, this a very good deal. Just because there is only $50,000 owed on $200,000 property, does not mean the bank will take $100,000 for it. They will sell you the property for a good, fair price. If you come in at $125,000, they will not even acknowledge you. If you come in at $150,000, they will counter at $199,000. If you come in at $175,000, they will probably give you a real counter to work with.
I am not saying that it is impossible to get a great deal. It is highly possible. You just have to reevaluate what a great deal is. If a home last sold for $350,000, and you buy it for $250,000, you are getting a great deal. You just need to be realistic. Plus, while you are dickering around with lowball offers, the odds are very good that someone who understands what is going on will come in with a respectable offer, and you will lose out. If you think it is a good deal, it is certain that somebody else will too. I feel the best strategy is too give the bank the opportunity to say " Yes."
The median price in California continued to increase in September, driven by lean inventory levels, while home sales remained on track with expectations for the month. The median price of a detached existing single family home was $296,090 in September, up 1.1 percent from the August median of $292,960, but down 7.3 percent from the September 2008 median price of $319,310. Barring a sudden decline in home values over the next few months, the statewide median price will register year-over-year gains by year end, although it will still be well below the mid-decade peak.
Sales in California hit 530,520 homes in September, up 0.6 percent from August sales of 527,120 homes, and up 2.1 percent from September 2008 sales of 519,530 homes. With sales expected to stay in the low- to mid-500,000 range through the rest of the year, annual sales for 2009 will finish about 20 percent higher than the 2008 annual sales figure of 439,830 homes.
Given recent price gains and sales levels, as well as lean inventory numbers that have averaged just over 4 months for the past 3 months, one should conclude that the California housing market is edging back toward its normal state. Indeed, these numbers are welcome developments for a housing market that was among the hardest hit in the country. But a look behind the topline numbers suggests that current conditions have resulted from a heavy dose of policy intervention and from efforts by lenders - who currently dominate the supply side of the market - to manage the flow of troubled mortgages and properties at all stages of the ‘foreclosure pipeline' from delinquencies to REOs.
The number of defaults in California escalated rapidly in the last couple of years, with 111,700 defaults in the third quarter of this year and a record high of 135,400 defaults in the first quarter of 2009. Normally, the trend in foreclosures corresponds approximately to the trend in defaults with a one to two quarter lag so the number of foreclosures should be on the rise as well. Instead, the level of foreclosures has been steady at roughly 50,000 per quarter since the last quarter of 2008. This seems to be the result from the combination of policy intervention, including foreclosure moratoria last year and early this year as well as the federal loan modification program, and efforts by lenders to deal problem loans on a case-by-case basis. As a result, market supply has held steady at levels that have stabilized the median price at the state level and in most California markets. In a number of markets, there have been some modest price gains compared to earlier in the year.
With current government policies and lender practices in place, home prices in much of the state should hold steady, aside from normal seasonal fluctuations in prices between now and next spring. In the end, price stability is necessary for discretionary sellers, as opposed to distressed sellers, to return to the market and drive the supply side of the market to more normal conditions.
Number of year to date closed residential sales - 681
Number of year to date closed residential sales 561 for the same period in 2008 +21.3%
Current Pending sales 154
39 of these are Bank owned 25%
That means 75% are not bank owned!
Bank Owned Homes 46 make up only 6% of the inventory available in Big Bear
That means 94% of the homes available in Big Bear are not Bank Owned!
261 of the 681 sold this year were bank owned 38%
77 of the 561 sold last year were bank owned 13.7%
What does all of this mean?
There are less homes to choose from currently than there were a year ago.
More homes have sold this year than last year for the same period.
With 154 pending sales and 681 closed sales this year, more homes will be sold in Big Bear this year than last year (669)
Big Bear does not have a high percentage of bank owned properties available, but what is available is selling faster than other homes sold by traditional sellers.
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