As expected, the Pending Home Sales shot higher in February, boosted by the federal home buyer tax credit's April 30 deadline.

Versus the month prior, February's index rose 8 percent but remains well off the highs set last October.

For today's home buyers and seller, the Pending Home Sales Index is an important measurement. This is because a "pending home" is a property that is under contract to sell, but not yet closed.

According to the National Association of Realtors®, 80% of homes under contract close within 60 days, historically. Therefore, a higher Pending Sales figure in February projects that April's Existing Home Sales will be higher, too.

If you're a home buyer today, no doubt you've noticed the extra market activity.

On right-priced homes, multiple offer situations are more common; sales prices are settling closer to listing price; Days on market is falling. These are the signs of a buyer-heavy market.  It drives home supplies down and home prices up.

It's a good time to be a seller, in other words.  Especially as buyer activity looks poised to peak.

When the home buyer credit faced its last expiration in November 2009, we saw a pattern of buyers rushing to beat the deadline.  There's no reason to expect that won't happen again. And as it does, Pending Home Sales should continue to climb. Average home sale prices should rise.

Home buyers may find it smart to go under contract sooner rather than later. Pending Home Sales is a warning shot.  Higher home sales figures are ahead.

Foreclosures stories dominate the national housing news. It seems at least one foreclosure-related story makes its way to the front page or the nightly news every week.

But for as much as the foreclosure filing statistics can be astounding -- over 300,000 homes were served last month alone -- the prevalence of foreclosures depends on where you live.

As reported by RealtyTrac, just 4 states accounted for more than half of the country's foreclosure-related activity last month.

• California : 22.7 percent of all activity
• Florida : 14.9 percent of all activity
• Arizona : 6.7 percent of all activity
• Illinois : 5.7 percent of all activity

The other 46 states (and Washington D.C.) claimed the remaining 49.9%.

However, just because foreclosures are concentrated geographically, that doesn't make them less important to homebuyers around the country.  There's been more than 1.4 million foreclosure filings in the last 12 months and that's a figure that can't be ignored.

Distressed properties now play a role in one-third of all home resales.

Therefore, if you're in the market for a foreclosed home, here's a few things to keep in mind.

1. Properties are usually sold "as-is" and may not be up to living standards. Be sure to physically inspect the home before buying it.
2. Buying a home from a bank is rarely as streamlined as buying from an individual homeowner. Be prepared for delays and long closings.
3. Foreclosures aren't always listed for sale publicly. Ask your real estate agent how to access the complete foreclosure inventory.

In order to use the federal homebuyer tax credit, you must be under contract for a home by April 30, 2010 and closed by June 30, 2010.  That doesn't leave much time to find a bank-owned home and make it to closing.  If you're serious about buying foreclosures, it's probably best to start your search soon.

Reporting on a two-month lag, the government said home values rose 0.7 percent in November.

National home prices are at their highest point since February 2009.

But before we look too much into the FHFA's Home Price Index, it's important that we're cognizant of its shortcomings; the most important of which is its lack of real-time reporting.

According to the National Association of Realtors^TM, 80% of purchases close within 60 days. As a result, because of its two-month delay, the Home Price Index report actually trails today's market data by an entire sales cycle.

This is one reason why home values appear to be rising even while new data shows that both Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales fell flat last month.  The home valuation report is using data from November; the sales reports are using data from December.

The Home Price Index is a trailing indicator and next month, as the Spring Market gets underway, the government will be reporting data from the holidays.

The same is true for the Case-Shiller Index. It, too, operates on a 2-month lag.

All of that said, however, long-term trends do matter in housing and the Home Price Index has shown consistent improvement over the last 10 months.  In many markets, home sales are up, home supplies are down, and values have increased.  This trend should continue into the early part of 2010, at least.

If you're wondering whether now is a good time to buy a home , consider low prices, cheap mortgages and an available tax credit as three good incentives.  By May, none of them will likely be available.

Just one month after touching a 3-year high, the National Association of Realtors® Pending Home Sales index plunged in November.  A "pending" home sale is a home that is under contract to sell, but has yet to close.

The 16 percent drop marks the first retreat in Pending Home Sales since January of last year.

The weak Pending Home Sales data is an indication that Existing Home Sales data will be soft this month. This is because, historically, 80 percent of Pending Home Sales convert to "closed sales" within 60 days, and most of the rest close within 120.

With Pending Home Sales down, the housing market should lose some of its momentum.  For today's home buyers, this kind of slack can represent a terrific opportunity.

Home prices are a function of supply and demand; of buyers and sellers. When buyers outnumber sellers, competition leads to bidding wars, ultimately, and higher home prices overall.  The imbalance can also create a sense of urgency that results in over-paying for a home.

When buyers are sparse, on the other hand, the psychology of real estate shifts. 

Home sellers are keenly aware of foot traffic and requests for second and third showings. Without buyers, their homes can't sell.  They also note a lack of general feedback from the market.

It's at this point that seller fear can creep in and it becomes a buyer's best time to buy.

Based on November's Pending Home Sales data, it's clear that home sellers are in abundance right now.  Home buyers have leverage.

It may not last.

With mortgage rates easing lower this week, the federal home buyer tax credit still in effect, and the Holiday Season officially over, buyers are getting back to business everywhere. 

Plus, with the tax credit deadline of April 30, 2010 fast approaching, buyer activity should increase over the next 4-6 weeks.

The market looks ripe for a buy but don't rush it.  Take your time and bid right. But when you're ready, be ready -- once the market momentum shifts back to sellers, you might lose all that leverage you built up through the winter.

Don't forget it's one of the best times ever to buy a home and take advantage of some of these tax deductions. Search San Francisco Real Estate - Search Marin Real Estate - Search San Mateo Real Estate.

The Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate within its target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

In its press release, the FOMC noted that the U.S. economy "has continued to pick up", that the jobs markets is getting better, and that housing market has shown "some signs of improvement" lately.

It's the fourth straight statement in which the Fed speaks optimistically about the U.S. economy - a signal that the worst of the recession is likely behind us.

The economy isn't without threats, however, and the Fed identified several, including:

1. Tight credit conditions for consumers
2. Reluctancy of businesses to hire new workers
3. Lower overall housing wealth

The message's overall tone remained positive, however and inflation appears to be held in check.

Also in its statement, the Fed confirmed its plan to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent "for an extended period" and to honor its $1.25 trillion commitment to the mortgage bond market.  That plan - due to expire at the end of March 2010 -  should be noted by today's homebuyers. Fed insiders estimate that the program suppressed rates by 1 percent through 2009.

Mortgage market reaction to the Fed press release is negative.  Mortgage rates are rising this afternoon.

The FOMC's next scheduled meeting is January 26-27, 2010.

If you wonder what mortgage rates and home affordability will look like next year, today's Retail Sales data may hold your answer.

Versus October, November's ex-auto sales were up by more than 1 percent. Analysts expected the increase, but not an increase of this magnitude.

"Ex-auto" means that motor vehicles and parts are excluded from the data.

Home values are increasing in many parts of the country and household net worths are rising, too. Therefore, we can infer from the Retail Sales report that U.S. consumers are starting to feel better about their individual finances, and about the economy overall. 

To homebuyers and rate shoppers, strong Retail Sales data may foreshadow higher rates for mortgages ahead.  This is because sales data is a by-product of consumer spending and consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy.

As spending increases, the economy tends to expand, drawing investment dollars into stock markets and away from bond markets -- including mortgage-backed bonds, the basis for conforming mortgage rates. 

Less bond demand leads to higher rates and, therefore, lower levels of home affordability.

Despite the Holiday Season momentum, however, 2009 will likely mark just the second time that Retail Sales data fell year-over-year since the government started tracking it 40 years ago.  The other year was 2008.

But, if November's Retail Sales is a reliable indicator of consumer sentiment overall, we should expect 2010 to rebound strongly.  And when it does, mortgage rates should suffer.

The housing market is recovering, mortgage rates are still near all-time lows, and the government is offering an $8,000 tax credit to qualified buyers through April 30, 2010.  If you plan to buy a home next spring, you may want to consider moving up your timeframe.  Waiting may be costly.

For many American homeowners, interest paid on a mortgage is tax-deductible in the year in which it was paid.

Knowing that, eligible homeowners can increase their 2009 tax deductions just by making their January 2010 mortgage payment before the end of the year.

By paying in 2009, the mortgage interest paid can be applied against 2009's itemized tax deductions even though the payment isn't technically due until 2010.

It can reduce your tax burden come Thursday, April 15, 2010.

And lest you think you're paying the mortgage "in advance", remember that mortgage interest is paid in arrears; a payment due January 1 accounts for interest that accumulated in December 2009 anyway. 

Tax planning is a complicated issue and not all homeowners qualify for mortgage interest tax deductions. Check with your tax professional before making tax planning decisions.

If you don't have an accountant you trust, call or email me anytime; I'm happy to make a recommendation to you.

Don't forget it's one of the best times ever to buy a home and take advantage of some of these tax deductions. Search San Francisco Real Estate - Search Marin Real Estate - Search San Mateo Real Estate.

When a home seller accepts a contract on an MLS-listed property, the property's status changes from "Active" to "Pending".

This means the home is scheduled to sell, but not yet sold.

Each month, the National Association of Realtors® tallies the number of pending homes and publishes the data as the Pending Homes Sales Index report.

In October, for the 9th straight month, the index gained. It's the longest such streak in Pending Home Sales history.

Because a "pending" home sale is just a contract between buyer and seller, it's not as important to the economy as actual home sales.  However, the Pending Home Sales Index can be a fine predictor of future activity.

Historically, 80 percent of homes under contract "close" within 60 days, and most others close within 120 days. Recent Existing Home Sales data corroborates this.  Home sales activity is at its highest pace in nearly 3 years.

The Pending Home Sales Index does have some shortcomings, though:

1. It doesn't account for newly constructed homes, a small but important part of the real estate market
2. It doesn't track For Sale By Owner properties and other non-MLS listed homes
3. Its sample set is small, measuring just 20 percent of all MLS-listed sales

Despite this, however, Pending Home Sales is a terrific measure of real estate market strength.  Homes are going under contract at a dizzying pace. It's thinning out home inventory supplies and pressuring prices to rise.

This chain reaction is what makes Pending Home Sales Index worth tracking. As the number of homes under contract increase, home prices can't be far behind.

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According to the government, home values edged lower last month.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency's Home Price Index report shows values down by 0.3 percent from the month prior -- the index's first down month since April.

The Home Price Index is based on the value of homes financed via Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac and, in this sense, the FHFA Home Price Index is more of a "national" real estate index than its private-sector cousin, the Case-Shiller Index.

But like the Case-Shiller, the HPI is as notable for what it specifically excludes as for what it includes. Most notably, the Home Price Index doesn't account for homes meeting any of the following descriptions:

1. Is considered new construction
2. Is a multi-unit property
3. Is financed by an entity other than Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac

Given the resurgence of FHA financing this year, this last exclusion is especially glaring.  FHA represents about one-third of all mortgage loans in 2009.

Because of these exceptions, some analysts label the Home Price Index incomplete.  The same could be said of every method of home valuation, however. Case-Shiller only collects data from 20 markets, for example.

In light of these shortcomings, therefore, what's most important is to recognize that both of the "popular" home valuation reports show similar patterns -- home prices have leveled and are showing signs of a rebound.

For a region-by-region breakdown of the Home Price Index, visit the FHFA website.

Tuesday -- for the first time in a long while -- members of the press met the monthly Case-Shiller Index data with enthusiasm.  And why shouldn't they?  19 of the 20 measured markets showed a slowing pace of home price decline in April.

Here are some of the headlines about the story:

• Case-Shiller Home Prices Decline Only 18% (Business Week)
• Case-Shiller Less Bad (Seeking Alpha)
• Home Prices In 20 Cities Drop Less Than Expected (Bloomberg)

Now, the headlines feel negative, but they're actually highlighting some key strengths in April's figures.  For example, nearly half of the Case-Shiller markets posted gains in April and all but one showed month-over-month improvement.   

It's a step in the right direction but doesn't mean that housing has turned around for good. 

We have to be careful about how we interpret the Case-Shiller Index because it's an imperfect housing gauge.  The most obvious Case-Shiller flaw is that it only measures home values in 20 cities nationwide and they're not even the 20 biggest cities.

Houston, Philadelphia, San Antonio and San Jose are excluded from the report and each ranks among the country's 10 most populous areas.

That said, the report is still important because the Case-Shiller Index identifies broader housing trends and that helps to shape economic policy.

Not only versus last month but also versus last year, the pace at which home values are falling appears to be getting slower.  This is the third straight month Case-Shiller has reported as such.

Now, three months makes a trend, but the data has to stay strong through the summer months to mark a bona fide turnaround.  If the Case-Shiller Index shows strength for May and June, it could be the signal for which the markets have been waiting.