It is a beautiful day in Summit County, 75 degrees and not a cloud in the sky. A perfect fall day. This is my favorite time of the year, if it doesn't snow.

As an information source on the Summit County Market I wanted to pass along a few thought on our market.

The national market has affected us since last August, when the mortgage "crisis" first became apparent. As our summer comes to an end, inventory is up 50% and volume, the number of sales are down, 30% in July, 40% in August compared to last year. Listing prices are slowly adjusting down. You may be right on target for a mid-winter bargain, maybe even next spring. We back to the same question. Have we hit the bottom of the cycle? A student of history would tell us that prices in Summit County have never flat-lined for longer than 18 months. Historically, we should come back strong next spring with a 5% increase in prices. This thought is based on the simple fact that we are substantially less expensive than Aspen, Vail, Steamboat, Crested Butte, Telluride and Winterpark. On the other hand, I still feel we are still over priced by as much as10%-15% in some areas. Breckenridge condos maybe 20% over value, if you look at the crazy growth from 2003 thru 2007. Which value is correct remains to be seen. Next spring will be interesting.

Have we hit the bottom of the cycle? I don't know. Last night financial news foretold another 30% decrease in tech stocks. Real Estate may not be a bad place to put your money even if we haven't hit the bottom yet. My advice as always is to buy within your budget and plan to hold the property at least 3 years. Buy a great property, not a great investment! The investment will follow if we buy a great property.

Always a pleasure, thank you.

Sincerely,
Chris Johnson

Summit County Bear Market that is. Just a few thoughts on Summit County real estate.  

 I understand concerns about diving in to any financial commitment at this time. It is hard to know what will happen in our market and in the national arena. Here in Summit, our prices are stable. Some types of property are still going up in price, new construction, and some types of property are going down in price, older single family homes.  Single families saw the largest appreciation from 2003 to 2007. Some Sellers are getting more and more motivated to sell as we head into winter, their selling chances decrease until next spring. The big question is if we will start to absorb inventory next spring or will the glut of property remain thru next summer. Either way I don't think you will miss any opportunities this fall.  

 I am optimistic about the spring. Our market started to slow in August 2007, third quarter. In the past, we have never had a slow period last more than 18 months. May 2, 1982, known as Black Sunday in Rifle Colorado,  was the day Exxon pulled out of Colorado, causing the Texas oil bust and Colorado shale oil bust. By 1989, over half the Savings and Loans had failed, along with the FSLIC fund that was created to insure their deposits. After September 11th, 2001, and both of these events, we had an 18 month flat lines with value dips in some niches, as we do now. After 18 months of inactivity, values started to raise at a rate which made up for lost time. Please find the attached PDF file with a graph of values from 1980 thru 2006. I think this spring will finish our 18 month period. I expect Summit County values to start to go up again in the spring of 2009. Although 18 months takes us to Feb. 2009, I don't expect a spike in activity until the snow melts.  

Of course, one could say that the 18 month period just started this summer.  Bear Sterns, Leman Bros., AIG or the passage of the bail out bill. However, the stock market may just have a few more weeks of volatility at the bottom. My father was a stock broker with Merrill Lynch thru the 70s and 80s. He always said "it's hard to spot the bottom until it's on it way up.'  The question remains, will we stay flat thru next summer or will values take off in the spring? My advice is to make a conservative purchase when it feels right for you and your situation, independent of the market. One of the great things about real estate is the individual nature of each property. Your home value is not determined by an index, but by the quality of your purchase and what an individual Buyer will pay. Emotional value carries a lot of weight in Summit County. Even today, "great property" is selling quickly and at a premium. Crystal Peak Lodge, new construction at Peak 8 just closed 50 properties priced between $977 and $2,000 per square foot. Overall Summit County averages $300 to $600 per square. Quite a premium for quality.  

Thanks for your time. I look forward to helping you find a great property, when the time comes.

As this site seems to be directed towards professionals within in our community I am hoping for feed back on your marketing. Print advertising seems to be going out of favor, but still effective and expensive. I hope we all agree that the purchase of leads from Lending Tree ect, ect. is not the answer. What do you folks think is the answer for new lead generation, for Buyers and Sellers of real estate.

The internet, web advertising certainly works but the percentage return rate is very low, and we need to play the numbers game. In my humble opinion, the more volume we try to handle, the less personal service we provide. To be blunt I am not a fan of teams, please correct me but I don't think clients like being passed to a transaction coordinator. If you are a informed, experienced Realtor, why would the client want to be passed off during the critical contract period. We make the assumption that the deal is done, but we,also know that contract knowledge and enforcement can be critical to the benifit of our client.

But back to lead generation. My biggest frustration is the balancing act between being a Realtor, and being a marketing machine. I hate marketing and love helping people buy and sell homes.  

So what do you think??

What makes Frisco real estate so sought after? Location, location, location... 7 miles from Copper Mountain, 9 miles from Breckenridge... the heart of Summit County real estate! Surrounded by beautiful views, Frisco may be the quintessential mountain town. Frisco real estate offers diversity; from resort condominium complexes to the log cabin in the woods. Walk to Main Street for year around activities and enjoy the charm of this great mountain town.

Frisco real estate may be the practical choice. Located off I-70 a short drive takes you to Denver, DIA international airport and the world.

The town of Breckenridge offers unique property for sale within the Summit County real estate market. For many Breckenridge resort property offers the best of all worlds. Breckenridge real estate can be walking distance to a world-class restaurant and be ski-in ski-out as well. Breckenridge is Summit County's largest market and offers a long list of amenities. Breckenridge has one of the largest National Historic Districts in the state and over 150 shops, galleries, restaurants and nightclubs - Breckenridge is much more than a ski town.

Your ideal mountain getaway can be found in the Breckenridge real estate market. Affordable older units, investment property, to the newest construction in the finest locations are all found within the wonderful town of Breckenridge, Colorado!

Don't hang your hat on rental income. In other words, rental income has dropped by more than 1/3 since the late 90s. We're talking short term rental income, for vacation property in the mountains, Summit County. Renting a property short term will subject the home to additional wear and tear, certainly excludes the property as a primary residence for you but does achive a few goals. Like extra income, not pay the mortgage income but extra income that may set the stage for a positive tax situation.

Back to a conservative game plan. Rentals numbers have grown since their low point after 2001-2002. As extra income rental allow a a owner to grow a repair/upgrade account for the home. If a buyer pays cash then the income may cover additional operating expenses, like HOA dues, insurance and taxes.

 As income waxes and wains over the years one understands that renting your home is another tax tool and may offer you income.

Just remember, it's no way to pay the mortgage!

Just a few thoughts on the market swings we have seen in the last few weeks in Summit County. The fall of 05 show strong growth which contiuned thru the winter in to spring 06. A period normally marked by more skiing and less buying and selling by Summit County visitors. However as we came out of spring and gained momentum towards the beginning of summer, which in Summit County, we kick of summer at the 4th of July and hopefully it hasn't snowed by Labor Day, but I digress. As the 4th approached showings slowed, activity mellowed and inventory increased. Now as summer progresses the level of inventory has remained higher than for the previous year and half. As an example Frisco usually has about 56 properties on the market. True since 2003-4 and currently, for the last 4 weeks the number has risen to the mid 80s. We certainly see an increase in new listings this time of year, however the  Buyers have not absorbed the new property the way they have in the past.

 Prices have remained stable, why, because the average Summit County Buyer, wants to use the property for family, friends and quality of life. Florida has been estimated as having as much as 40% pure investors buying property in the past. Ofcourse, we are all investors in any property which is not our principal residence, but lets draw a line in the sand, and say It's not the use but the finacing. Summit County seems strong at the moment because we have Buyers who make conservative purchases and Sellers who are in strong positions, they are not forced to sell.

 Well thank you very much for making thru my first blog! Hope you learned a few tidbits.

All the best.