최근 2, 3년간 주택 매매 거래 건수가 격감하고 있음은 삼척동자도 다 아는 일이다. 이는 숫자로 그대로 보여지기 때문이다.  주택 매매 재고가 11개월어치 매매량을 훌떡 넘어선 지도 이미 오래된 이야기다.

 그러면, 가격은 어떤가?

일단 매물이 많이 쌓인다면, 수요와 공급의 원칙에 의해 가격이 대폭 하향 조정되는 것이 순서일 것이다. 실제로 거래가 이루어진 주택들을 본다면, 그 거래가격이 이같은 현실을 많이 반영하고 있음을 알 수 있다.

 거래량이 격감한 가운데 보여지는 이러한 가격 하락을 가지고, 시장의 전반적인 추세라고 말하는 것은 적절하지 못할 것이다. 왜냐하면, 가끔씩 생기는 이러한 거래들은 급매물 등 Seller의 특별한 사정에 따라서는 호경기의 장세에서도 생길 수 있는 것이기 때문이다.

 주택 매매 재고의 리스팅 가격을 분석해 보면, 2005년과 2006년의 최고 시세와 비교하여 별다른 차이를 보이지 않거나, 많은 경우 더 높은 가격에 나와 있어, 지금이 진정 가격이 하락하고 있는 장세인지가 의심이 든다. 열에 한 두 건 비율로 대폭적인 가격인하를 단행한 물건은 팔려나가고 있지만, 나머지 대부분의 물건은 오랜기간 진열장에서 그저 막연히 머물고 있을 뿐이다.

 뒤집어 놓고 보면, 시장에 나와있는 물건 중에서 진정으로 팔 의사가 있는 것은 극소수일는지도 모른다. 이러한 리스팅 가격에서 읽히는 심리는, 그저 가격이 얼마나 되는지 알아보자는 뜻 이외에는 달리 해석할 방도가 없다. Seller의 심리적 저지가 그만큼 완고한 것은 아닐지.

 요즈음은 부동산 에에전트가 CMA(시장가격분석)을 할 필요가 없다는 자조섞인 얘기도 들린다. Seller가 원하는 가격이 그대로 리스팅가격이 되어버리는 현실을 두고 하는 말이다. Seller의 마음 속에는 지난 2000년부터 2005년까지 자고 나면 가격이 치솟고 하던 시절의 강한  잔영을 쉽사리 지울 수가 없을 것이다.

 현실은 참으로 많이 변했다. 불경기가 사람들의 마음을 엄습하고 있는 가운데, 과거 묻지마 방식의 모기지 론은 이제 어디에도 없다. 그저 집을 1채씩 나누어 주는 것 같은 그런 경험이었다. 눈치 빠른 사람은 2채 3채도 챙겼다. 그러나 이제는2채 3채는 커녕, 1채의 주택이라도 살 수 있는 준비가 된 Buyer를 찾기도 쉽지가 않다. 모든 것을 묻고 또 재차 확인하고 나서야 모기지 론을 준다고 하니, 1채조차도 힘들고, 설사 물건을 찾는다 해도 예산 범위안에 드는 작은 규모의 것일 수밖에 없다.  주택 투기의 광풍이 지난 뒤의 이 황량함과 허탈함이란...

 Seller의 심리적  저지와 Buyer의 모기지 론 라이낸싱은 앞으로의 주택경기가 풀려 나가는 데 있어 두 가지 중요한 변수라 할 것이다. 얼마나 더 가야 할지...

Is the real estate price really going down? How do you feel it? And, how much, if any? What about the commercial real estate market?

The price analysis of sold items in the NJMLS data helps have a small taste of how much price changes sellers and buyers think acceptable with time lapses.

The above chart shows most sold items went through a considerable price cut. Commercial properties, generally speaking, were sold at a much higher discount. In other words, commercial wouldn't be as transparent as residential in figuring out the right market price.

Commercial properties in Bergen County were sold less in count and amount and at a deeper discount last one year than the previous one year ending 7/31/07. The price cut got deeper  by 3.0% point in one year. Residential properties in Palisades Park were sold much less so far in 2008 comapred to 2007, but the price cut change remained 1.0% point deeper.

Commercial properties under $500,000 went through a deeper price cut comapred to large ones and average days on market prolonged by about a month. In contrast, residential properties under $500,000 in Palisades Park were sold at a deeper price cut, but relatively handy houses were absorbed much faster than larger ones.

The more stressed on the market, the more price cut, in general. Commercial properties that stay less than a half year on the market barely lower their listing prices. But most commercial properties take a more than 10% discount on average when sold.

Residential properries in Plisades Park show some reasonable cuts in listing prices with time lapses and also take a 5.5% discount on average when sold.

Of course, there may be rare cases where multiple offers compete to wind up going over the listing prices, but these seem as yet far from the reality most people stand on.

Bergen County and Palisaeds Park saw a dramatic downturn in residential sales in the past years, according to NJMLS data analysis as of 7/31/08. Sales of total residential units in Bergen County plunged 44.63% vs. 2005, the peak year, and 24.65% vs. last year. Palisades Park looks in even worse shape as seen below, as only 61 units were sold this year as of 7/31/08. This roller coaster-like fall reminds people how hot the market was in its sunny days. Palisades Park, the home of condomized duplex, did not see sales faltering up until the mid of 2007, as helped by surging condomized duplex sales in 2007. It is quite interesting that the town showed this late response to the overall market slowdown.

"Bank-approval required (BAR)" items are increasingly listed in the MLS system these days. They are either short sale items or items already foreclosed and/or owned by banks (REO). As of 7/9/08, all 70 towns of Bergen County have approximately 462 "BAR" items out of all 7,264 "Active" items, which accounts for 6.36%, as shown below.

This high rate in Bergen County, however, does not look fair at all in comparison with other neighboring counties, such as Passaic (11.33%), Essex (14.56%), or Hudson (8.24%).

In Bergen County, locale 300 (Southwestern Bergen) and 400 (Central Bergen) shows the highest rate---9.01% and 9.29% respectively.

It is notable that 2-4 family housing units show a much higher rate of "BAR" vs. condos/townhouses/coops, which is common to all of the above 4 counties.

Are "BAR" items relatively competitive in prices? Well, a few are.

Does "BAR" items sell well? Well, a few does. 

*Charts are based on the New Jersey MLS data.

The housing market, as scraped by media and the reality nowadays, has been severely afflicted in the past 2 years, and sees little indication for the way to upturns sooner or later. Its overheated market culminated in the 2nd quarter of 2006, long after a flurry of warning signals had inundated here and there.

As shown below, Bergen County saw a dramatic plunge in sales volume in a year (-59% for 7/2006~7/2007) and another similarly worse year (-68% for 7/2007~7/2008) compared to the 1-year average of previous 3 hot years between 7/2003 and 7/2006.

During the same period, Palisades Park took a little different route to this hardships. As its condomized duplex market still hung in there to an extent with only 30% decrease, the total residential sales downed by 52% in a year. But in 2 years, its condo market followed the suit and the sales went down by 74%. This lagged but steeper slowdown in sales volume in the 2nd year (7/2007~7/2008), conceivably, may arise out of the stereotyped price temcency and the unwillingness to make a compromise with the reality.

The congestive inventories waiting for sale were abosorbed in part by rentals. Leased properties in this period soared by 38% in a year and 46% in 2 years in Bergen County, comapred with 52% in a year and 44% in 2 years in Palisades Park, vs. the 1-year average of previous 3 hot years between 7/2003 and 7/2006.

The market sensitivity these days seems to go high, as the players feel it. Dare to say, it wouldn't be wise to hold on to one's own deja vu with antennae folded. Watch out for the alive market!!!

***Charts are based on the New Jersey MLS data.

Palisades Park is one of the rarest towns whose rental ratio tops as high as 58% (cf. 38% owned). It is the 3rd highest in Bergen County, following Hackensack and Fairview.

In the past 2 years, residential sales volume tumbling half to half each year, rental market absorbed some of its impact and grew by more than 50% compared to the housing bubble period before the 2nd quarter of 2006. 

Although the number of "active" rental items on the market does not increase or decrease abruptly---84 items today, Palisades Park rental market moves fast. Whatever some decent item, in terms of location, price, and move-in conditions, comes up in the market goes away instantly. Even in some cases, several offers compete, with some casualties left behind. There seem to be so many prospective tenants waiting.

However, rent seekers would not hastily take a bad-move-in condition residence, no matter what other favorables, such as prices or locations. Items deemed no good hardly attracts interests. Overpriced items either stay long on the market or survive only after their significant price reduction. Location also is an important factor, for instance, how far away from Broad Ave.

Whoever wants a satisfactory rent in Palisades Park has to constantly pay attention to the market!!!

Do J Lee

www.SweetHomeTony.com