Too much emotion - Not enough solid professionalism

Real Housing Markets - Less Emotion

It's been my experience over the last 20 years in home building and selling real estate that housing markets are like any other market, supply and demand still matters. So often we spend quite a bit of our time on the emotional side, the frenzied growth spurts and the inevitable market corrections. Even those of us in the business, are far to prone to the emotional and frenzy.

I guess I'll shoot straight, this real estate housing market is not as bad as we appear to want it to be.

Last week I was asked to take a look at a development, one that has not been all that successful for the last couple years. When I met with the developer, the conversation immediately headed into "housing bubble" land. Can I tell you how much I dislike housing bubble land?

The development we were discussing frankly wasn't suffering due to housing bubble, or the debt markets constricting, or even a major market slowdown. The development we were discussing was suffering from three problems:

1. Sales efforts have been amateurish and prospects who can afford are not even aware of the opportunity. The real estate professionals have done the "sign out front - wait for someone to call" plan.
   
2. A few years back the out of town developer thought to use an auction house to sell off some lots. This stigma still hangs over the site. This auction ideas was before the market ever changed, even before the media began telling us it "had" to change. The only lots that sold at the auction sold at a solid price, but the auction tag stuck as a negative.
   
3. The community is targeted at an empty nester niche, one that has been very competitive in this market, with too many competing sites and very little creativity in product design.

Here are things that were not a problem, but the media is continuing to tell people to see as concerns:

1. Mortgage money is plentiful for empty-nesters who have down payments far in excess of 20%, decent credit, and regular incomes.
   
2. Foreclosures, especially those relating to investor owned properties and sub-prime lending, have almost nothing to do with this communities target market niche.
3. Prices in this market rose just 18% over the last five years. There has been and won't be a bubble.
4. Prices in this market have not dropped, sure some specs got dumped in the market last year, but when analyzing all real estate prices have been level to down less than 5% over all price points.

Over the next couple weeks I will be collecting the real figures for this community, based not on emotions or media bias, but on the facts. There are real population, households, net equities, incomes, jobs, traffic counts, inventories, and competitive factors that matter. Now, I'm no Pollyanna, I understand that the emotional frenzy of the media and even some professionals has affected demand. Where households may have been apt to move every six years, that number may be moving higher due to fear.

But, there are still people getting married, having children, getting divorced ... there are still new households being formed every day. They aren't all renting, or we'd see rents jumping by huge percentages (and they aren't). In many ways people are waiting for "experts" to tell them that it's Ok to go back out and look for a home. They don't want to seem foolish. No one wants to buy and look naive to their friends.

My dad always taught "no one wants to be first in line - but everyone wants to stand in a popular line."

My advice to real estate professionals? Access the real data in your market. I was reading a news article from Indianapolis last week, with a headline emblazened with negative tone, and yet the inventories were reported to have declined from an 9 month supply to an 8 month supply. That frosts me, and proves that bad news sells newspapers.

Elected Democrats Shunning Obama

Elected Democrats shunning Obama

An elected Democrat, delegate to the convention no less, has endorsed John McCain!

I'm scrambling to keep up with breaking events on other fronts today, so thought I'd shoot this link up so some of you in the group can get all the details.

As the actual positions of this man become more public, he's losing his moderate support.  This is the perfect storm needed to get American hero John McCain elected to the Presidency.

Cross Posted at Hoosiers for Mccain

John McCain Links Roundup May 30, 2008

Obama Sought Endorsement of Marxist Third Party in 1996

from eyeon08.com by Warner Todd Huston

We're only just scratching the surface of Obama's Chicago connections. People will be shocked to hear the things you need to do to run for office in a big city. -Patrick

Here is some interesting as well as character confirming info about one of Barack Obama's former runs for office. Apparently, Obama actively sought and received the stamp of approval of a Marxist third party that operated briefly in Chicago between 1992 and 1998. The group was called the "New Party" and was started in 1992 by Daniel Cantor (a former staffer for Jesse Jackson's 1988 presidential campaign) and Joel Rogers (a sociology and law professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison).

American Moms Backing Sarah Palin

from Campaign2008VictoryA by Stephen R. Maloney If you're interested in another candidate who might one day end up in the White House, check out my piece on PA's Melissa Hart: http://pennsylvaniaforjohnmccain.blogspot.com .


Gov. Sarah Palin -- beautiful, yes, but also extremely talented and a true patriot.

Newt Gingrich Collects Over 100,000 Signatures for Domestic Oil Exploration in 48 Hours

from eyeon08.com by Patrick Ruffini

Newt Gingrich's American Solutions is closing in on 140,000 signatures for its Drill Here, Drill Now, Pay Less petition. On Tuesday, this number was about 12,000. When refreshing the page this morning, the signature count appeared to be rising by about 100 a minute. Full disclosure: American Solutions is a client of my company, but we haven't worked on this initiative.

This is a proverbial hockey-stick moment, and for an issue -- energy -- which hasn't traditionally riled up a lot of activist passion even if it bites consumers. Perhaps $4 gas is changing that, with gas prices taking their place alongside the war, gay marriage, and immigration on the list of activist hot buttons.

8 Stages Alert: Obama Says Visiting Iraq Is A Distraction

from McCain Blogs by William Teach As Don Surber writes:  Any time he screws up, the criticism is a distraction from "the real issues," whatever those are. Also, any time the issue is one the neophyte Presidential wannabe cannot answer Obama, who spoke to reporters on his airplane on Wednesday night as he flew home to Chicago, said it's "not relevant" that he hasn't [...]

Electoral College Outlook: McCain 270, Obama 268 - by Robert Novak and Timothy P. Carney

from POLITICO MAFIOSO by Tony GOPrano

Posted: 05/28/2008

Electoral College: While national polls garner attention, they have no direct bearing on choosing our next President. A state-by-state count of electoral votes is the key to analyzing the presidential race.

For the first time this year, we run through all 50 states plus the District of Columbia in order to handicap the presidential race. Outlook: If the election were held today, we see a McCain victory by the narrowest of margins.

Sorry for just links today, I'm up to my eyeballs in a state race for Attorney General between a radical right Republican who has Dan Quayle' backing and a good friend of mine who's got the Governor's endorsement.  If you care http://reasonbellpundit.blogspot.com is the site I'm using for the campaign blogging.

Northwest Indiana Blog Carnival

In my continuing effort to build the blogosphere and its connections in our region, Northwest Indiana, we took the opportunity to hose the NW Indiana Blog Carnival this week.  I hope you get a chance to head to the site and enjoy the 'best of' posts I chose.

The Carnival for NW Indiana is Back!

I you are a Northwest Indiana blogger, and want to submit for next week's Carnival use the following link:

Northwest Indiana Carnival Submissiion Link

The blogosphere in NW Indiana has really been taking off in the last six months, I wrote an article for www.219.com last night which should get posted soon, I'll bring the link over when it gets posted.  I commented there that Active Rain had something to do with the blogospehere explosion in the Region. 

Places to find great John Mccain team posts

First, to the members of our Real Estate Professionals for John McCain group, sorry I've been absent the last couple weeks.  We are engaged in a pretty tight political fight for the Attorney General slot in Indiana, taking a bunch of my time recently.

A couple quick places to add to your fishing for great McCain posts and information:

Twitter has been much talked about here on Active Rain, and I love it too.  There is a John McCain2008 twitter profile, mostly links to posts, but quite often ones that haven't gained a ton of interest yet.  Go ahead and follow.  Good post if you missed it: I'm Really Seeing The Value of Twitter This Week by Debbie Malone.

Also, in a siimiar vein, I personally added a John McCain 2008 room on the new FriendFeed.  This feature just came out a couple days ago, so we're still adding members. 

Home Builder Horror Story

I don't post much anymore here on Active Rain, but this one struck a nerve. 

The Mortgage Fraud Employee Benefit Program

from Calculated Risk by Tanta Thanks to Clint for this terrifying story in The Oregonian:

Fitzsimons, of Prineville, started his first residential construction company, called Sunrise Northwest, when he was 19. In August 2004, he joined forces with close friend Shannon Egeland, co-founding Desert Sun. . . .

Home Builders Speaking Out - Defy the Trends Campaign

I love this story, and posted on my home building blog:

Home Builders Defying the Negative News

I don't really post for points anymore, so really not gonna spend time and energy typing a bunch extra, just head over to my post and comment liberally.

There's a link to their Facebook Cause page there too.

John McCain Today April 17

Join Real Estate Professionals for John McCain

Also for you twitterers follow @JohnMcCain2008 for links all day

1. Video of John McCain speaking to VFW
2. Suspend the Gas Tax - McCain for Families - My own Hoosiers for McCain site
3. Brand new McCain platform for grassroots efforts - in Alpha right now - McCain Now
4. McCain's View from the High Road - on John McCain 2008 social network on ning
5. Visit Moms for McCain - now in 33 States!!
6. From Blogs for McCain Victory: 

   What is objectionable and frankly offensive is Sen. Obama's belief that small-town Americans simply "cling to guns or religion or antipathy toward people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations" for any reason. This fully de-legitimizes those beliefs and practices and reduces them to mere childish and irrational reaction to and epiphenomena of adverse circumstances. As Rich Lowry points out, this is an irrefutable refusal to meet people on their own terms and reveals an "assumption...that only liberal attitudes are normal and well-adjusted: If only these small-town people could earn more income, get an advanced degree, and move to a major metropolitan area, then they could shed their chrysalis of social conservatism."

   That is what is objectionable.

7. Top Ten Reasons Mitt Romney dropped out of the Presidential Race

8. Former Gov. Mike Huckabee new website is a secret no more. He has transitioned the former MikeHuckabee campaign site into the "Huck PAC." The mission of the site is defineds on the site as: From ARRA News Service

 Notes:  I was going to post a Top Ten set of links, but these eight were the best.  Obviously I subscribe to many of these sites and can quickly and easily grab the links and read the posts ever day.  They all love comments and debate too though. 

Veterans for McCain

Quick post on the way out the door to church:

 Hat Tip New Jersey for McCain: for identifying Veterans For McCain. The site is operated by Col O.P. Ditch, Retired USAF. He also has a growing Veterans For McCain FaceBook Group.

It's amazing the number of great McCain sites and social networks popping up, and in each one there is a different group of people who are excited about John McCain as our next President.

Response Letter by Pennsylvania Resident to Obama

Dear Mr. Obama:

I listened very carefully this morning to your response to all the flack you have been receiving regarding 'bitter small town Pennsylvanians.'  Nice try.  But man, you're wearing me out!  How encouraging for Pennsylvania residents that you expanded your remarks to all small towns across America.  I must say, however, that the nation's small towns will not receive your remarks any less provocative. 

You mentioned that the remark could have been made more eloquently the first time.  But your second attempt didn't cut the mustard at eloquence either.  What we seem to have here is a strong misinterpretation on your part of why small town Pennsylvanians [and the rest of the nation's small towns] stand behind religion, guns, and illegal immigration. 

So let me enlighten you.  Let's start with Pennsylvania since this is where your infamous and callous remark was made.  Small town residents stood behind their faith and guns long before they were severely hit with hard economic times and massive job loss.  They were not bitter then, and when they attend religious services today, bitterness is not a part of their church service. 

I am at a loss as to where and how you arrived at this belief.  I have been in many small town churches in Pennsylvania and I didn't see bitterness.  I saw these residents revering, praying and worshipping a God they believe is good.   You haven't been in small town Pennsylvanian churches to conclude this.  But you did spend twenty (20) years in a church with bitterness and hate with Mr. Wright which you simply assume includes small town Pennsylvaians.  And might I add that many small town Pennsylvanians would not last half a service in a church where bitterness and hate prevail. 

Hillary may take Pennsylvania from you, but that does NOT give you the right to attack good Christians or any other faith in this state because you do not have the support there that fuels your followers. 

Same thing with guns.  Many in Pennsylvania and in small towns across the nation clung to their second amendment rights when economic times were good.  Bitterness played absolutely no part then in their beliefs, nor does it now. 

Yes, illegal immigration and the in-sourcing and outsourcing of cheap labor has hit a once industrial Pennsylvania hard, as it has the rest of the nation.  And yes, its not rocket science that one's loss of a job and the ability to put food on the table would cause extreme anxiety and frustration. 

Your remarks were nothing but a cheap shot at Pennsylvanians, and now expanded small town residents across the nation. 

And DO NOT think that this one will be swept under the rug as some of the more questionable aspects of your life and thought processes.  Little by little, the puzzle pieces are coming together.  Little by little, the true Barack Obama is sneaking through.