credit markets: Good Thing I Work On The First Floor? - 10/10/08 03:51 AM
Thursday, October 9, 2008
Good Thing I Work On The First Floor?
Anyone can take a look at the action today, yesterday, the day before...well you get the idea, and say that there is no end in sight and that gloom and pessimism will rule the day. Very logical, and I … (1 comments)
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credit markets: Anyone Still Positive? - 10/09/08 07:51 PM
The first assumption that has to be made is that you have some optimistic tendencies or you wouldn't still be in the business. If my first assumption is incorrect, then you have not been paying attention and had you been paying attention, you most likely wouldn't have gotten out of the … (12 comments)
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credit markets: Federal response market recovery - 10/07/08 08:07 PM
The market response after the bailout bill has been disappointing, but the bill actually did little to address the economy's problem. As massive as it is, as costly as it is, as loaded with pork as it is, the bailout did not address foreclosures, home inventory, unemployment, unfreezing the credit markets, … (4 comments)
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credit markets: Tomorrows a huge day, here's the gameplan - 10/02/08 10:12 PM
We've had, to say the least, a very interesting week. The markets have gone to great length to prove how bipolar they are and just how volatile they can be. One 800 pound gorilla is the bailout plan that passed, didn't pass, was re-passed, and now on the table for the … (3 comments)
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credit markets: "May you live in interesting times." - 10/02/08 05:41 PM
The Chinese have a proverb: "May you live in interesting times." And we are living through interesting times indeed.
Whatever the political posturing regarding the current rescue plan, a plan needs to be passed. Credit markets are frozen and banks are going bust every day. This is not totally because … (5 comments)
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credit markets: The Rescue Plan - Why We Came To Need It - 10/02/08 02:27 PM
The Chinese have a proverb: "May you live in interesting times." And we are living through interesting times indeed.
Whatever the political posturing regarding the current rescue plan, a plan needs to be passed. Credit markets are frozen and banks are going bust every day. This is not … (1 comments)
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credit markets: Thursday Bailout and Credit Market Comments - 10/02/08 12:16 PM
I haven't given an update in a few days since I've been stuck in meetings all day. Here's where we stand with things, after Congress surprisingly rejected the bailout bill in front on them on Monday, Senate took the lead in reintroducing and yesterday voting for a revised bill.
The bill … (12 comments)
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credit markets: A perspective on our current....well......financial mess! - 09/29/08 11:52 PM
The severity of the state of our credit markets, should be a wake up call for anyone who has not yet made the time to get educated on what’s been going on in our financial markets, today and over the last 20 years.
Understanding the speculation that led to … (6 comments)
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credit markets: Monday Bailout Comments and A Solution - 09/29/08 05:54 PM
I got off my flight down to Los Angeles a few hours ago and was pleased to see that Congress had rejected the bailout bill, woops I mean Financial Stability Act. I would not be surprised though to see it come back from the dead, given the fear today's large stock … (21 comments)
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credit markets: Sunday Bailout Update - Pretty Much a Done Deal - 09/28/08 10:48 PM
The last remaining significant resistance in Congress and the Senate has appears to have crumbled tonight and party leaders announced that they believe that the bailout is a done deal with voting in the house starting tomorrow. At 9:00 EST the Treasury department held a conference call with primary dealers to … (19 comments)
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credit markets: The WaMu Seizure and Capital Market Consequences - 09/28/08 05:01 PM
Outside of the bailout bill currently under debate probably the biggest news last week was the failure of the largest thrift in our nation, Seattle based Washington Mutual. On Thursday, the FDIC took the step of seizing WaMu due to them being vastly under-capitalized. The deposits and some other assets were … (6 comments)
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credit markets: Three More Massive Banks on the Brink - 09/27/08 05:42 PM
Today there are reports coming out of three massive banks currently on the brink of financial meltdowns. The situation at Belgium's Fortis bank with total assets of about $780 Billion appears most dire with Belgium's central bank trying to craft a rescue plan before Monday. Over in England talks to save … (19 comments)
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credit markets: Failure is Important - 09/27/08 12:00 PM
If you can't guess from my previous dozen posts in the last week, I'm referencing what's going on in our financial system right now and the bailout bill. One of my biggest arguments with much of the government intervention in the past year and in particular the bailout in front of … (13 comments)
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credit markets: Zen Master - 09/25/08 04:41 PM
Although it was not as initially proposed by The Hammer Hank Paulson, the bail out was agreed on in principle today. The $700 billion plus proposal was scaled back to $250 billion of immediately available funds with and additional $350 billion that could be accessed and only prevented from access via … (0 comments)
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credit markets: Okay, you can read this one. - 09/23/08 07:31 PM
Big day in the financial world today. Bernanke and Paulson testified on The Hill about the $700 BILLION, I still don't even think that's a real number, plan to bail out the markets and bring an end to this mess. Of course the government has always been oh so efficient at … (1 comments)
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credit markets: Monday Market Recap and Bailout Implications - 09/22/08 10:48 PM
I was trying to write a post about the what todays markets (stocks,bonds,commodities) are saying about the proposed $700B bailout and the implications. Alas, sleep deprivation is starting to get to me, and writing coherent sentances just isn't working right now. After not sleeping a whole lot the past four days … (11 comments)
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credit markets: Don't read this, please. - 09/22/08 07:51 PM
Alrighty....I'm done predicted anything exact because it's impossible and I'm too proud to be wrong more than a couple times...tops!
Stock market tanked 372 points (closing at 11,015), the NASDAQ shed 95 points (2,178 close) and the S&P rid itself of Friday's gains to the tune of 48 points (closing at … (8 comments)
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credit markets: The "No Banker Left Behind Act" of 2008 - 09/20/08 09:23 PM
With the situations in the credit markets becoming increasingly dire on Friday and threatening the systematic collapse of many large financial firms the US Treasury and Federal Reserve held an emergency meeting with Senators and Congressman. According to Senator Dodd, "The Oxygen went out of the room" when after the situation … (17 comments)
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credit markets: Friday Morning Credit Market Update - 09/19/08 09:26 AM
Well I'm down in Vegas now for Real Estate Blog World so not exactly following stuff real time but there's been an amazing amount of action in the last 24 hours so I'll recap it.
RTC Version 2.0
The Federal Reserve and the Treasury are now pushing a plan to setup … (7 comments)
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credit markets: AIG is Nationalized and the Next Big Financial Crisis - 09/17/08 10:01 AM
Late last night the governments hand was finally forced with crisis at the worlds largest insurer AIG, by for all intents and purposes nationalizing the company. The FED made a $85 billion, yes billion with a 'B', loan to AIG and the US government received a 80% equity stake in the … (14 comments)
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credit markets: Mid-day update - It's all About AIG - 09/16/08 12:43 PM
Since for some sick reason I'm glued to my computer screen watching various news feeds come in, and have been talking to buddies in finance all day. I thought I'd give a mid day update on the ongoing crisis unfolding in the markets, though truthfully it's was set in motion years … (31 comments)
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credit markets: The short fuse is now lit on AIG - 09/15/08 07:48 PM
The biggest driver in the market today wasn't the collapse of Lehman Brothers but rather the implosion happening at the worlds largest insurer AIG. AIG's been writing hundreds of billions of credit default swaps like they we're going out of style the last several years and if they go down the … (24 comments)
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credit markets: Post Lehman - Financial market recap - 09/15/08 05:16 PM
We already knew today was going to be an interesting one, after seeing two of the five largest investment banks (Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch) in the US essentially self destruct over the weekend. Lehman Brothers filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy at 1:45 AM this morning and a shotgun merger was … (7 comments)
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credit markets: Hank - Talking doesn't Restore Confidence When Everyone Knows You're Lying - 09/15/08 02:49 PM
WARNING: Major Rant below, read at your own risk :)
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Our esteemed Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson just gave a speech on Bloomberg in an attempt to reassure the markets that the crisis is almost over. Sorry Hank, there is one problem, talking doesn't reassure people when no one trusts what … (7 comments)
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credit markets: Lehman Weekend Update - This is Getting Surreal - 09/15/08 01:26 AM
This weekend represents possibly the most critical single juncture in our financial system and credit markets since the crisis first began over a year ago. We have several large financial firms (Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, Washington Mutual, AIG) on the ropes with Wall Street and the government desperately looking for some … (66 comments)
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credit markets: Rubbernecking at the Lehman Brothers train wreck - 09/13/08 08:45 PM
Hot on the tail of the governments massive bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac another crisis (actually several) has now taken center stage is it appears very unlikely Lehman Brothers the nations 4th largest investment bank will survive through the weekend or at least EOD Monday. They were the obvious … (5 comments)
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credit markets: 2008 Market and Economic Predictions - UPDATE - 09/13/08 03:54 PM
I was just going through post blog posts and I saw one I did right at the start of the year with ten predictions for the new year mostly related to markets and the economy. I forgot to do a mid year update, but thought I'd revisit it now as I'm … (13 comments)
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credit markets: Struggling Banks Tightening Credit toU.S. Businesses - 08/24/08 07:14 AM
Struggling banks are tightening loans to U.S. businesses. We saw the signs in mid-June and it seems to be getting harder and harder for healthy and growing businesses to get financing. If banks continue on this path of restraining business access to capital and credit, companies cannot grow, expand and hire, … (1 comments)
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credit markets: Former FED Poole: Fannie/Freddie too big to survive - 07/28/08 04:04 PM
You've all heard the term that has gotten bantered around during our ongoing financial crisis, "Too big to fail". Basically the concept that a particular company maybe too big and have too big of an impact to be allowed to fail so it should be bailed out, regardless of the collateral … (5 comments)
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credit markets: Treasury announces their Fannie, Freddie bailout - 07/13/08 06:13 PM
This evening the US Treasury just announced their rescue plan for mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac which combined insure over $5T in mortgages and are currently accounting for the majority of all mortgage lending taking place. The three main points of the rescue plan:
1. The US Treasury with … (20 comments)
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credit markets: The states AG's pile on Countrywide - 06/26/08 01:03 AM
This morning, something happened many had a pretty good idea was in the works, the attorney generals for three states (California, Washington and Illinois) formally filed lawsuits against Countrywide for fraudulent or discrimatory lending practices. The filing of these lawsuit happened soon after Countrywide shareholders approved the planned acquisition by Bank … (20 comments)
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credit markets: NO Housing Recovery! - 06/05/08 01:17 PM
The problem is not housing anymore. Sure, prices may need to come down a few more percentage points, but prices don't really move like that. Indexes do. Some prices rise while others fall. Home values don't all rise and fall in concert with one another, but I digress. The problem is … (8 comments)
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credit markets: Stay on top of what's going on in the credit markets & agencies - 03/13/08 12:54 PM
Over the last few days, I have been referring to various agencies and their roles with respect to credit. There is a wealth of information on these agencies and it's worthwhile to spend time on these web sites to get a better handle on what's happenning in the world of credit … (0 comments)
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credit markets: The FED, the New "Money Honey" for Fannie & Freddie - 03/11/08 08:41 AM
The FED consists of 7 members of the Board of Governors--there are currently only five serving
The Fed has the authority to lend money a to individuals, partnerships and corporations since 1932.
This authority has never been used an it I snow being considered.
With respect to Fannie Mae the Fed is considering the … (0 comments)
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credit markets: Mechanics of the Credit Markets - 03/10/08 10:12 AM
D
Daniel Mudd, CEO fo the Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) is off to Asia And Eurpoe's financial centers. This trip is an annual event. an annual trip and he is taking the opportunity because investors here are averse to investing in the credit markets here. Mudd said they aren't hurting for capital now. … (0 comments)
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credit markets: A jumbo cram down: Bank lobbyists 1, Tax payers 0 - 02/21/08 08:06 PM
This post is a break off of one item in my post Your credit market update and some of the comments, particularly one from Michael Tarabotto. As most people an economic stimulus bill was recently passed. This bill includes several items that are supposed to help the economy and particularly the … (9 comments)
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credit markets: Nice recovery in the ten year treasury today - 02/21/08 07:06 PM
Finally some news that should be positive for mortgage rates. The 10 year treasury bond rallied pretty good today (yields down). The yield dropped closed the day at 3.78% down from 3.92% just the other day. All things being equal this should provide some relief to fixed mortgage rates from the … (9 comments)
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credit markets: Your credit market update - 02/19/08 11:04 PM
I thought I'd just do a brief recap of some of the happenings in the credit markets, which of course have significant effects on mortgage rates.
The "monolines"
No, big earth shattering news out of them, yet. MBIA joined FGIC and Ambac in saying they were now working with regulators to explore … (18 comments)
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credit markets: Monoline update - Bring on the lawyers - 02/16/08 11:32 AM
The saga of the monoline credit insurers (MBIA, Ambac, FGIC, etc) continues to get more interesting and move faster. What happens with these companies has an enormous impact on the credit markets, from mortgage backed securities to municipal bonds. This week for the first time we've had some extensive failures in … (13 comments)
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credit markets: Spitzer is on the war path... - 02/14/08 01:37 PM
Lawyers rev up your engines, Eliot Spitzer is on the war path. While he likes to grand stand with the best of them, his words usually turn into major actions. It started with this letter published in the Washington Post this morning.
Predatory Lenders' Partner in Crime
"Several years ago, state attorneys general … (11 comments)
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credit markets: Munis, monolines and Buffett's offer you "can't" refuse - 02/12/08 10:01 PM
Ok, this is not a real estate related post, but there's so many interesting things taking place in the credit markets right now. For anybody that doesn't know what the monoline insurers are, or why they are making headlines right now you might want to read my post "What are the … (14 comments)
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credit markets: Oh boy, Credit Crunch round #4 - 02/12/08 06:51 PM
Ding, ding, ding...
Looks like Round #4 of the credit crunch is just about to start. I wrote a few months ago in Credit Problems - Round 3 how drops in the ABX indices foretold the major credit problems in Feb, Aug, and then the ones in Nov a few weeks in … (14 comments)
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credit markets: Amazing decline in non-agency mortgage debt - 02/12/08 06:09 PM
Below is a chart showing pretty clearly the crunch effecting the mortgage industry right now. "Non Agency" refers to mortgage backed securities not issued by the GSE's such as Fannie, Freddie and Ginnie. Not sure much more needs to be said on this one, wow...
… (7 comments)
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credit markets: Bond market puts the smackdown on the US Treasury - Rates up - 02/07/08 01:58 PM
The treasury department periodically holds auctions to sell US Treasuries to fund the government debt. Today they held one for 30 year treasury bonds and to put it simply, buyers didn't show up. It was the worst auction results EVER for the treasury department with 90% of the bonds going to … (17 comments)
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credit markets: Why the FED may cut deeper soon, and the scary implications... - 02/05/08 12:04 PM
Ok, just a warning before reading any further, if you are having a good day, don't proceed as this post may be a little disturbing...
In the last several week the FED has cut the target overnight rate by 125 basis points. It's the most they've cut in a single quarter in … (16 comments)
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credit markets: What are the Monolines and why is everybody trying to bail them out? - 02/03/08 05:57 PM
One of the big stories that has finally started to hit the mainstream media in the last week or two has been the Monoline credit insurures and everybody from banks to the government trying to arrange a bail out for them. I thought I'd try to put together another one of … (34 comments)
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credit markets: HELOC lock downs become more extensive - 02/02/08 01:56 AM
A little over a month ago I wrote about a certain lender (WaMu) starting to lock down the HELOCs of their customers, preventing them from tapping them further. Today the LA Times had a good article on this subject and the fact these lock downs are starting to become much more … (14 comments)
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credit markets: Fed target rate down, mortgage rates up - 02/02/08 01:05 AM
So over the last 2 week the FED has cut their target interest rate a full 125 basis points and credit demand has plummeted off a cliff. Guess what 30 year mortgage rates are pretty much unchanged from a week ago after initially dropping after the cuts. Below is a chart … (10 comments)
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credit markets: Credit Problems - Round 3 - 10/27/07 12:06 AM
I've written several times in the past on this blog about current events in the credit markets that have a huge impact on the overall economy but in particular the mortgage industry. I thought I'd give another update...
Back in February we saw Round 1 of the credit problems brought to the … (13 comments)
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credit markets: Tightening up of Underwriting Standards. - 10/03/07 09:29 AM
Fannie and Freddie Mac have been tightening up their underwriting guidelines in the past few months. What we in the mortgage industry considered a "Slam Dunk" just a few months ago, are now getting, "Expanded Approval". This tightening of underwriting guidelines by the banks and Private Mortgage Insurance companies makes it … (0 comments)
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credit markets: Impact of The Federal Reserves Drop in Interest Rates in N.E. Ohio - 09/19/07 07:58 AM
Here is how I look at it, being in this mortgage industry for over 17 years. The recent move in dropping the short term rates I believe will break apart some of the log jams we are experiencing with the move up buyers and sellers. I cannot tell you how many … (4 comments)
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credit markets: Credit Crunch? A weekly observation - 08/17/07 06:28 PM
What a turbulent week it's been! There is no denying that the credit markets have been in turmoil over the past week- particularly the interest rate for jumbo loans for *well qualified* buyers in the real estate market. The good news is that the Feds have stepped in and lowered interest rates … (1 comments)
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credit markets: What's going on in the credit markets? - 08/10/07 06:27 PM
I thought I'd follow up my post from yesterday with an explanation of some of what is happening in the credit markets during the last two days. Some people may have seen some headlines about the federal reserve injecting billions of dollars into the banking system along with ECB (European Central … (22 comments)
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credit markets: Subprime meltdown and the real estate market - 03/13/07 03:22 PM
Watching the meltdown in the subprime market the last couple weeks has been kinda shocking. The fact that it's happening or even how fast it's happening isn't the shocking part, it's the fact that how many people act totally surprised by it, is what gets me. The lending standards, particularly over the … (46 comments)
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