According to the governments numbers, home values edged lower last month.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency's Home Price Index report shows values down by 0.3 percent from the month prior -- the index's first down month since April.

The Home Price Index is based on the value of homes financed via Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac and, in this sense, the FHFA Home Price Index is more of a "national" real estate index than its private-sector cousin, the Case-Shiller Index.

But like the Case-Shiller, the HPI is as notable for what it specifically excludes as for what it includes. Most notably, the Home Price Index doesn't account for homes meeting any of the following descriptions:

1. Is considered new construction
2. Is a multi-unit property
3. Is financed by an entity other than Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac

Given the resurgence of FHA financing this year, this last exclusion is especially glaring.  FHA represents about one-third of all mortgage loans in 2009.

Because of these exceptions, some analysts label the Home Price Index incomplete.  The same could be said of every method of home valuation, however. Case-Shiller only collects data from 20 markets, for example.

In light of these shortcomings, therefore, what's most important is to recognize that both of the "popular" home valuation reports show similar patterns -- home prices have leveled and are showing signs of a rebound.

For a region-by-region breakdown of the Home Price Index, visit the FHFA website.

With crude oil at its highest levels since October 2008, retail gas is up 8 cents per gallon this week.

It's bad news for home buyers and mortgage rate shoppers.  The same force that's driving oil higher is linked to rising mortgage loan rates.

We're talking about the weakening U.S. Dollar which is now at its worst levels versus the Euro in 15 months.

Crude oil is priced in U.S. dollars, by the barrel.  When the dollar loses value, more of them are needed to buy the same barrel of oil.  As a result, predictably, the price of crude oil goes up.

Now, there are other reasons why crude oil is rising, but the fading U.S. dollar is one of the major ones and it's why we're addressing it.

The dollar has a similar impact on mortgage rates.

Mortgage rates are based on the price of mortgage bonds that -- like crude oil -- are also denominated in dollars. As the dollar loses value, so do mortgage bonds.  This causes demand for bonds to drop and prices on bonds to fall.

Because bond prices and bond rates move in opposite directions, mortgage rates rise and this is precisely what's happening on Wall Street today.

Since touching a 5-month low in early-October, mortgage rates have tacked on as much as 1/2 percent, depending on the product.  Moreover, with the dollar showing no signs of a rebound, the upward pressure on rates should continue.

The HVCC code of conduct is the result of a legal settlement with the attorney general of New York. It is applied nationwide. And it should be considered a case study in the value of the legislative process: If the HVCC had been a bill introduced into Congress, it would have never passed without having undergone drastic changes. But it wasn’t a bill and it isn’t a law; it’s a legal settlement by one state’s attorney general, imposed on all 50 states.
Every public policy has unintended consequences. But that doesn’t mean that the consequences are unforeseen. Plenty of people foresaw the unintended consequences arising from the HVCC. Because it didn’t go through a legislative committee system, because it wasn’t passed by two houses, and because it wasn’t signed by a governor or president, those foreseeable but unintended consequences could be — and were — ignored.  As a matter of fact Cuomo was a paid board member of AMCO, an appraisal management company. His buddy is Ed Davidson (a major campaign contributor of Cuomo) and was the CEO of AMCO, which was sold to SIRVA and renamed Valuation Services, LLC. It is reported that Davison has rights to future income from Valuation Services, LLC. (and I wouldn't be surprised if Cuomo does get a couple of bucks from it either, but that's pure conjecture on my part.)
HVCC was supposed to include Independent Valuation Protection Institute, which is a place to report fraud and coercion. That was never funded so AMCs are unregulated. It was rumored that Ed Davidson was to head the IVPI. As it stands, HVCC is nothing but a profit center for the big banks who own them.

After 18 years in the mortgage industry, I can’t believe that such poorly written legislation is being enforced and the only loser is the consumer. All wholesale lenders have an appraisal review process, there is no way to pay off or entice an appraiser to bring in a value that isn’t supported by comps. If you do the appraisal will be cut and the appraiser will be placed on the black list. AMC’s can just as easily enticed, so how does this solve the so called problem? The bottom line is that consumers will pay 3.8 billion dollars more in appraisal fees this year… What a Gong Show!

With The Year Half-Over, How Accurately Did Economists Predict 2009

At the start of the year, the "experts" made a lot of predictions about the U.S. economy and what to expect in 2009. 

• Some said housing would rise
• Some said housing would fall
• Some said mortgage rates would rise
• Some said mortgage rates would fall

And nobody predicted just how big the government's stimulus package would be.

Now, on June 30, with the year officially half-over, it's as good a time as any to remember that people are much better at interpreting the past than predicting the future.  Economists can make educated guesses about the future, but they're guesses nonetheless. 

It's like watching the Weather Channel.  A meterologist can look at the data and say it's going to rain next week, but the forecast is never 100%.

So far this year, mortgage rates have been up and down, credit availability has been higher and lower, and home prices have varied immensely from neighborhood to neighborhood.  These are not the types of predictions we get from the pundits.

There's another 6 months until 2010 and there's no reason to expect the current trends to change. 

The world is unpredictable and so is the U.S. economy.  Therefore, consider making your personal finance decisions based on the information at hand today instead of on an educated guess about the future.

After all, the weatherman's been wrong before.

When the government nationalized mortgage lending in September, housing analysts predicted lower mortgage rates.

For a brief two-week stint, they were right -- post-takeover, the 30-year, fixed rate mortgage fell below 6.000 percent nationally for the first time in 7 months.

Since then, however, mortgage markets have reversed.  Rates are now at pre-takeover levels.

Now, this isn't to say that the nationalization was a failure -- far from it.  The government's takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac accomplished two very important goals:

1. It restored failing confidence in the U.S. mortgage markets
2. It opened legislative channels for faster, more relevant housing reform

And, long-term, most people agree, these are essential elements for a U.S. economic recovery.  Over the short-term, however, the plan has not delivered the sustained low mortgage rate environment that was envisioned. 

The biggest reason why rates are higher is because of Wall Street's manic trading behavior.  When the economic outlook shows hints of sun, investors sprint to risky stock markets; when it shows signs of gloom, they flee in favor of ultra-safe treasuries.  The buy-sell patterns have led to some of the wildest trading days on record and it's not what the Treasury expected.

See, when the takeover was first announced, mortgage-backed bonds were elevated to "government status".  This created new demand for mortgage bonds which helped to push down rates.  But, in the weeks that followed, the world's credit markets unraveled and traders sought the dual comfort of safety and liquidity in their portfolios.

That's a combination that only U.S. treasuries can provide.  Versus "true" government bonds, mortgage-backed securities are just quasi.

We can't know where mortgage rates will move for certain but, for now at least, the 4 percent range some had predicted is out of reach.  Until credit order is restored globally, expect volatility to continue and rates to remain up.

Given the stock market's recent performance, it's not surprising that gasoline's falling prices are garnering very little attention. That doesn't make it any less relevant, however.

Since peaking in July, gas prices are off by 20 percent.

Falling gas prices are an important positive for the U.S. economy because less money spent at the pump means that more money is saved per household for everyday items including food and other staples.

In addition, consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the economy. 

Therefore, falling gas prices may lessen the impact of a forecasted recession.  Because Americans are notoriously poor savers, the extra cash-on-hand is likely to get spent which will, in turn, push the economy forward through the upcoming holiday shopping season.

So, just as inflation can bad for mortgage loan rates, so can recession.  And while recession won't always cause mortgage loan rates to rise, right now, it's one of the factors driving rates higher.  Falling gas prices may help keep that scenario at bay.

Buyers are returning to the housing market.

Each month, The National Association of REALTORS^® tracks homes under contract to sell, but whose closing has not yet happened.  It calls them "pending sales" and publishes a monthly report to quantify them. 

The Pending Home Sales report is important because it's meant to predict future home sales activity.  History shows that 80 percent of homes under contract will "close" within 60 days, and most of the rest will close within 120 days. 

If Pending Home Sales are up, it's believed, actual home sales will be up, too.

In August, Pending Home Sales jumped 7 percent from the month prior, returning to levels not seen in over a year.

The report's strength suggests that buyers are returning to the housing market, continuing the trend that started in March.  This is tremendously good news for sellers because more buyers on the hunt means more demand for homes which, in turn, leads sale prices higher. 

The Pending Homes Sales report is not a perfect predictor, however.  For one, it's not measuring an actual sale -- just the expectation of one.  In addition, it only accounts for "used" homes, ignoring new construction. 

But that aside, the strong uptick in August tells us that home buyers are re-engaging at a quickening pace and finding that "now" is a good time to buy real estate.  When buyer demand rises, the real estate market as a whole isn't usually that far behind.

(Image courtesy: The Wall Street Journal Online)

The Federal Reserve made an "emergency rate cut" this morning, dropping the Fed Funds Rate by one half-percent to 1.500 percent.

The move is meant to stimulate the U.S. economy.

When the Federal Reserve changes the Fed Funds Rate, it often takes 9 months for the changes to work their way through the economy. 

On a broad scale, therefore, we won't know if the cut truly "worked" until Summer 2009.

But, as it relates to Americans in general, the rate cut spurred two immediate changes.

First, because Prime Rate is directly tied to the Fed Funds Rate, Prime Rate fell by 0.500 percent today, too.  That means that interest rates on credit card debt and home equity lines of credit are now lower, reducing monthly interest costs for the majority of American households.

The second change is that mortgage rates are rising today.

The Fed's actions today sparked optimism in some corners of Wall Street and money is now flowing into the stock market at the expense of bonds.   Because mortgage rates move in the opposite direction from bond demand, mortgage rates are higher this morning. 

As always, mortgage markets and mortgage rates remain on edge.  Therefore, rates are subject to change.  And quickly.  If you see a rate and payment you like, be ready to commit to it because it likely won't last long.

In an effort to provide "the most market support possible", Fannie Mae is cutting one of its mandatory loan fees by 0.250 percent, effective immediately.

Fannie Mae introduced the Adverse Market Delivery Charge in December 2007 to offset foreclosure and delinquency losses.  The initial fee was a quarter-percent of the amount borrowed. 

Then, as market conditions worsened, Fannie Mae doubled its across-the-board loan fee to 0.500 percent in August of this year.

As of today, the fee is back to its starting point.

Since the start of the 2008, Fannie Mae has made 21 separate changes to its mortgage guidelines.  Most have been detrimental to borrowers, increasing the difficulty, or the cost, of qualifying for a conforming home loan.

Today's change is among the few that are beneficial.

This morning, mortgage pricing is edging higher because of the looming Congressional vote and Wall Street's reaction to the weak jobs report.  The good news is that price changes could have been worse. 

Fannie Mae's Adverse Market Delivery Charge flip-flip is keeping rates from rising as high as they might have otherwise risen today.

Congress approved the $700 billion "Bailout Bill" Friday, answering the question that dogged mortgage markets all week long:

Will they or won't they pass it?

The uncertainty prior to the vote created huge market swings that ultimately sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average to its worst week since the 2001 terrorist attacks, while causing similar damage in the mortgage markets.

Mortgage rates worsened for the third straight week last week.

However, if we take the congressional vote out of the picture and look strictly at last week's data, we would have expected mortgage rates to fall instead of rise.

For example, the economy shed another 159,000 jobs, bringing the 2008 total to 760,000 lost jobs.  This reduces the likelihood of inflation and is normally good for mortgage rates.  In addition, the U.S. dollar had its strongest week ever against the Euro.  This usually attracts buyers to the mortgage bond market, driving down rates.

And third, Fannie Mae eliminated one of its mandatory loan fees.  This improves mortgage bond pricing for borrowers, ultimately leading to lower rates.

But, mortgage rates rose didn't fall last week and that shows how deep the economic uncertainty really ran.  And this week, with the bill now passed into law, we would expect the market to turn its attention back to fundamentals.  But it can't.

Unfortunately, there's no new data for release this week so, in the absence of data, markets should take their cues from the following sources:

1. The 8 scheduled Fed speakers, including Bernanke on Tuesday
2. Wednesday's Pending Home Sales report
3. Persistent rumors of a "surprise" Fed Funds Rate cut

Regardless of to what markets react, though, be prepared for them to react swiftly and for mortgage rates to dip and spike -- often in the same day. 

In other words, a mortgage rate quote from the morning is likely to be "expired" by the afternoon so if you see a rate and payment that you like, consider locking it.  It likely won't last long.