Why buy now? Burlington, Vermont

WHY BUY NOW? (not to be self-serving) 1.29.09

The old saying, repeated by such financial luminaries as Warren Buffett, is to "Buy Low, Sell High". But so often we, the public, do exactly the opposite. The recent run-up in prices that started like a Tsunami in 1998 is a great example.

People bought like crazy as the average price of homes in Burlington went from $141,214 in 1998 to a high of $343,361! That is a 143% increase in 7 years ...and people were fighting each other to pay those prices!! That was the Tsunami. Prior to that the waves were barely lapping the shores. The average price in Burlington went from $132,072 in 1989 to $141,214 in 1998, a 9 year total gain of 6.9%! Would it have made sense to buy a home in Burlington between 1989 and 1998? Of course it would, if you were planning on living in the home for a few years and really were looking for a "home" and not just an investment that could be used like an ATM card every few months or years.

The Burlington real estate market has been through three major price corrections in the last 30 years and each was preceded by a significant, multi-year run-up in prices followed by either a decline or leveling of prices for 4 years or more.

1981 $66,807 peak price. Interest rate: 16.5% ARM. Time to buy?
The first of these peaked in 1981 with interest rates for ADJUSTABLE mortgages hitting 16.5%!! The average home in Burlington was selling for $66,807. Would it have made sense to buy then? Only if you were planning on living in the home for a few years and really looking for a "home".

1989 $132,072 peak price. Interest rate: 11% fixed. Time to buy?
As interest rates came down the average price went up to $132,072 in 1989, a 97.7% increase in 8 years!! Would it have made sense to buy then? Only if you were planning on living in the home for years and making it a "home".

2005 $343,361 peak price. Interest rate: 6.5% fixed.Time to buy?
But then we had the Savings and Loan Debacle and home prices sagged again until the run-up started in 1998 peaking in 2005 at $343,361 as stated above. Would it have made sense to buy then? Only if you were planning on living in the home for a few years and really looking for a "home".

We are now 4 years past that last PEAK and only time will tell what the future will bring for Burlington area real estate values, but the history of the last 30 years would seem to indicate that even buying at peaks pays off in the long run. But we're 4 years past the peak and rates today are as low as 4.75% fixed! If you have seen a pattern emege from my statistics and commentary, that was my intention. As long as I have been in real estate, and even before that, there has been a cyclical pattern to home sales. Although I do not have a precise crystal ball, past experience tells me that history does in fact repeat itself.