North San Diego County Real Estate Resource

Serious buyers are frustrated in this market

Tony Cannon (Keller Williams Realty) — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 02:16:29 -0500

In the boom days of 2002-2006, consumers benefitted because even people who should never have been able to get a home were able to do so. In today's market, serious buyers find themselves having to make multiple offers and may give up in frustration in their attempt to get a home in many parts of San Diego County. If there was a "buyer's market" it sure didn't last very long.

The banks are hurting themselves and hindering market recovery

Tony Cannon (Keller Williams Realty) — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 00:19:26 -0500

As most buyer's agents know, the bank selling a home in foreclosure will often take a cash offer that is less than an offer which contains a financing contingency. That may make sense, and may seem harmless enough, but let's look at it in more detail.

By taking a cash offer, you can see how a lot of the peripheral businesses involved in real estate are also hurt:

1. There is no new loan, so no bank or loan officer is able to generate new business
2. There is no title insurance policy on the buyer's side, so one of the key support businesses in the housing industry is not generating as much revenue
3. An appraisal is no longer necessary, so appraisers are not getting new business
4. No termite clearance is required, so the termite companies have less work
5. By taking a lower price, the home is not sold at true market value and will continue to influence future valuations in the neighborhood.

This last point can be really significant. For example, a bank owned home last month in Encinitas was listed at $500,000 and the bank sold it for $480,000 to a cash buyer even though there were two offers at $560,000. Why? Because it was a cash offer, and it came in a day or two before the others and they had already made up their mind. I'm convinced in many cases if a bank would keep a home on the market for two weeks before accepting an offer, we could see at least a 3% increase in the average sales price.

Instead, by continuing to price new listings significantly below market price, and not taking the highest offers on the table, the banks are forcing market prices down more than it should from supply and demand alone. Which really is just hurting themselves because the majority of sales involve a bank either through an REO or a short sale.

What's happening with housing prices in Oceanside? What can I do as a buyer?

Tony Cannon (Keller Williams Realty) — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 00:01:06 -0500

Homes in good neighborhoods, priced right and in decent condition are getting multiple offers. Why is that?

The number of homes being sold is definitely higher year over year, and from February to about June is the most activity each year on a seasonal basis, so that accounts for some of the competition among buyers right now. I saw the same thing last year at this time...properties with 10, 15, or 20 offers. The statistics will still show that home prices are decreasing. What is misleading is they are decreasing because the volume of sales are happening now in the lower price ranges. The homes above $600,000 or 700,000 are pretty stagnant because of high interest rates on jumbo loans.

Another factor is the way the banks are handling the short sales and foreclosures...they don't take the highest offer often. They either take the first offer or the cash offer. If they continue to take less than close to maximum market price then they can easily force prices to continue downward longer than they really should based on market fundamentals...supply and demand. Right now, the decent neighborhoods in Oceanside in the $250,000-400,000 price range have low inventory and a lot of buyers waiting so prices should go up.

So to be a successful buyer in this market you need to:

1. Be patient when you do make an offer
2. Be quick to make an offer
3. Take your best shot right from the start
4. Be prepared to make 6-10 offers.

It doesn't really seem like a buyers market when we have to adhere to those guidelines. Can someone tell the newspapers please!!??

Maximum credit to FHA buyer on Countrywide short sale?

Tony Cannon (Keller Williams Realty) — Sat, 14 Feb 2009 14:02:12 -0600

Does anyone know from dealing with Countrywide in short sales(where they are the first lien holder on the seller's home) if there is a maximum closing cost credit they will allow to an FHA buyer? I have heard 3%, but I just want to confirm.

Rancho Del Oro Oceanside sales prices are stable for past 6 months?

Tony Cannon (Keller Williams Realty) — Wed, 11 Feb 2009 03:03:17 -0600

An appraiser who was doing a valuation in Oceanside's Rancho Del Oro neighborhood was kind enough to email me a graph she put together of the last 6 months of sales activity Thanks to Lisa Forbes for showing graphically the popularity of this tract in Oceanside. With good schools, convenient location, affordable homes, and a cared-for community, it is popular with first time home buyers, military personnel serving Camp Pendleton, investors, Orange County commuters, and more.

Harbor Pointe in Carlsbad holding steady

Tony Cannon (Keller Williams Realty) — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 00:15:11 -0600

Harbor Pointe in Carlsbad near Poinsettia and I5 is a gated community in a good location. And the real estate downturn seems to have avoided it so far. Very few homes have sold over the past couple years, and the prices have pretty much been holding steady. I guess it comes from a combination of location, price point, low HOA dues, and a well maintained gated community that never had a slew of buyers over-extending themselves. I'd say it's like buying a blue chip stock, except we all know what the stock market has done in the past year...

Rancho Del Oro: low inventory, brisk sales

Tony Cannon (Keller Williams Realty) — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 00:03:54 -0600

For all the published doom and gloom, Rancho Del Oro in Oceanside, CA continues to be a popular area for buyers due to it's good schools in either the Oceanside or Vista school districts, a convenient location, and an association doing it's job maintaining the grounds to preserve the look of the neighborhoods.

As of 1/27/09, there are only 28 Active listings of detached homes in the MLS and 20 homes are in escrow. I consider a normal inventory of Active listings to be about 40-50. Low inventory, low interest rates, and increasing number of sales should help prices stabilize. However, the banks controlling the short sales and foreclosure listings continue to price lower than prior sales. I don't think they really need to, but until they stop, they are driving the prices lower and hurting themselves and all the non-distressed sellers or existing owners in the process.

Banks making an effort to spruce up their listings

Tony Cannon (Keller Williams Realty) — Mon, 08 Dec 2008 01:23:15 -0600

I have been pleasantly surprised recently by seeing some banks take the time to not only put carpet and paint in homes that need it, but also to replace appliances and fixtures that have been ripped out by the prior owners before being foreclosed.

It certainly creates a better impression for the buyers, helps those buyers get into homes who may not have the reserves after closing to spend $10,000 or so to do these repairs, permits VA and FHA buyers to consider these homes as the home may not otherwise qualify, and is one less cost that needs to be estimated in the buyer's overall picture for getting the house move-in ready.

I guess with all the illogical things I see the banks doing, this one actually makes sense. Hurrah!

Should listing agents be required to list health hazards?

Tony Cannon (Keller Williams Realty) — Mon, 08 Dec 2008 01:15:14 -0600

Recently, I went into a few Oceanside homes with obvious mold conditions: garage wall covered in mold due to a water heater leak; mold under the kitchen sink due to a dishwasher line leak; mold in the fridge due to the electricity being turned off and the fridge not emptied nor cleaned...etc

A few times I have feared for my own health, but more than that, if I am entering a property with a buyer, I certainly don't want to compromise their health.

I think listing agents, out of at least courtesy but also to reduce their liability somewhat, should be required to add comments in the confidential (agent-only) remarks section when possible health or safety issues are present.

So in addition to mold, it would be nice to know about dogs that bite, rodent or insect infestation, questionable structural integrity, exposed live wires or nails, etc.

Do you think this is a good idea, and what would you like to see added to the list?

Olde Carlsbad shows price increase over the past 6 months

Tony Cannon (Keller Williams Realty) — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 12:11:58 -0500

For those wondering which direction the market is headed, here is an area in Carlsbad that seems to be headed in the right direction. Part of the reason is this area does not contain many newer homes, so either local builders are not slashing prices and bringing down the values, or recent buyers who bought too much house are not foreclosing or doing short sales as much as many other parts of San Diego.

I used the Sandicor MLS looking at 6 month intervals from 2003-2008. Detached homes with an average size of 1900 square feet and built before 2000. Olde Carlsbad is an area east of I5, west of El Camino Real, south of Hwy 78, north of Cannon Rd.

If you find this information useful, and would like to see it for other neighborhoods, let me know and I'd be happy to generate the data.

Rancho Carrillo residential area in Carlsbad, CA

Tony Cannon (Keller Williams Realty) — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 00:58:24 -0500

This is a map showing the boundaries of the 17 tracts of attached and detached homes within the community of Rancho Carrillo in Carlsbad, CA

Villages of Rancho Del Oro in Oceanside. Map of residences

Tony Cannon (Keller Williams Realty) — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 00:32:23 -0500

Here is a map showing the 7 residential villages(plus Sandalwood) comprising the tract home community of Rancho Del Oro in Oceanside, CA. Most are detached homes(about 1600), but there is Alacima which are townhomes, and The Missions at Rancho Del Oro Apartments(www.missionsatranchodeloro.com) also. In addition there is quite a bit of commercial space.

Also shown are nearby Starbucks to give you an idea how convenient is the location. If you are interested in finding nice neighborhoods in Oceanside like this, let me know.

Short sale turns to bank owned. Will the bank come out ahead?

Tony Cannon (Keller Williams Realty) — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 16:26:45 -0500

I had a buyer offer $360,000 4 months ago for 1706 Calle Platico in Oceanside's Rancho Del Oro neighborhood. We were beat out one month later by an offer at $378,000. Today the bank lists the home as an REO at an asking price of $325,000. Will multiple offers drive the price up to the price they could have gotten during the short sale. Probably not.

So the bank loses more money, and the seller had to have a foreclosure instead of a short sale on their credit. Seems like a lose-lose decision which is unfortunately all too common with banks not looking at the "big picture".

Third party simultaneous close on a short sale

Tony Cannon (Keller Williams Realty) — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 14:51:00 -0500

Have any of you been involved or heard about doing a third party simultaneous close on a short sale?

I was contacted today by an investor who has the following business plan:

1. Find potential short sale sellers

2. Investor writes a low offer to be submitted to the lender(s) along with the hardship package

3. Once lender(s) approval is obtained, if the lender approved sales price is much less than market value, put the home on the market with an aggressive price so it sells quickly.

4. Do a third party simultaneous close whereby the investor closes with the seller and the lender gets their proceeds, and then the same day, the investor sells to the buyer at a price higher than he paid, so investor pockets the difference. The investor may be under the guise of a "land trust".

This scenario appeals to me as a listing agent since I do not get involved until the short sale has already been approved. So no long wait, and no concern of the short sale terms being unreasonable. It would also appeal to buyers since they do not have to wait either.

Do you think this is defrauding the lender? Could a lender write an approval condition that would prohibit this simultaneous sale?

A long time escrow officer I spoke to did not want to get involved and I have hesitation also.

What do you think?

Arrowood Oceanside New Home Sales and Foreclosures Dominate Sales

Tony Cannon (Keller Williams Realty) — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 03:25:05 -0500

Oceanside's Arrowood community, including KB Homes' Windham and Buckingham tracts, is an area of homes less than 5 years old with new construction still ongoing. Unfortunately, this mix has caused it to have some of the biggest price drops (from the peak) that we have seen in Oceanside.

As the inventory of bank owned homes has dwindled, and multiple offer situations has caused many buyers to miss out, the new home builders (KB, Richmond American, Fieldstone, and John Laing) have been very aggressive in both their pricing and the incentives offered which is now translating into decent sales activity.

For example, of the 15 homes currently in escrow, 4 are bank owned, 1 is a short sale, 1 is a non-distressed seller, and 9 are new homes. Of homes sold in the past 3 months, 8 were bank owned, 3 short sales, 2 non-distressed, and 4 were new homes.

And to see how skewed those numbers are, of the 36 Active listings, 6 are bank owned, 17 are short sales, 9 are non-distressed, and 4 are new homes.

It's areas like this in San Diego County which will still see some price drop through 2008. Other neighborhoods are faring better and should see prices now levelling since inventory is much less than it was 6 months ago. Just remember, having an experienced, knowledgeable, local real estate agent can help buyers figure out what neighborhoods make the most sense, and how to negotiate best with REOs, short sales, or new homes.

30 offers on a Rancho Del Oro home. Has the bottom hit?

Tony Cannon (Keller Williams Realty) — Fri, 11 Apr 2008 17:57:06 -0500

Just this week, a 1919sf home built in 1996 priced at $343,900 in Oceanside's Rancho Del Oro community received 30 offers. The market price of this bank owned home is about $375,000. So the asking price represents a pretty good deal at today's pricing, but otherwise it is an unremarkable home and actually backs up to a fairly busy street.

It's encouraging to know there are that many serious buyers in Rancho Del Oro since it indicates a much healthier market than we have seen the past 6-9 months. And this is not the only home seeing multiple offers, as well priced homes which have come on the market in the past month or two are quite often getting 2 or 3 offers.

Does this mean the bottom has hit for pricing in Oceanside? Only time will tell, but you can be sure when today's pending sales finally close, we will at least see a levelling off of the downward price decline that has been so prevalent since summer 2007.

Buyers may want to take stock since with the current pricing and interest rate levels, it may not get much better than this.

Rancho Del Oro and many parts of Oceanside showing signs of recovery

Tony Cannon (Keller Williams Realty) — Tue, 01 Apr 2008 00:16:26 -0500

Many parts of Oceanside have seen prices almost freefall since last summer. Fortunately, due to recent buyer activity, that decline has a chance to slow down and maybe even level off.

With 53 homes actively for sale in Rancho Del Oro, and 14 in Pending status, it indicates a theoretical 4 month inventory. For the latter half of 2007, that was typically 6-9 months.

Another indicator is the number of multiple offers that are occurring, particularily in the sub-$500,000 price range. While a number of the offers are still considered low-balls, it appears there is enough competition that sellers can start to get closer to asking prices. Plus many of the bank-owned homes are getting so much interest, that buyers and their agents are pursuing short sales. Banks seemed to have learned their lesson from 2007 so that short sales are not quite as painful and have a higher chance of success than we saw last year.

Does this mean we have seen the bottom in prices? Probably not as some of this activity is seasonal and there are still a lot of foreclosed properties yet to hit the market. But let's keep our fingers crossed. With the government taking action to help the housing market, 2009 holds promise for recovery.

Olga's foreclosure has a happy ending

Tony Cannon (Keller Williams Realty) — Tue, 01 Apr 2008 00:00:12 -0500

At least it was a happy ending for the buyer of her home who I met the other day. He paid $404,500 including the 5% buyer's fee at the Real Estate Disposition Corporation's last public auction.

The interesting part of the story is one of my first conversations with Olga in March 2005. I told her the value I saw for her home, and she disagreed. At the time, the home had already been on the market 4 months priced $645,000-675,000. I quote Olga: "As realtors, it should be suggested to sellers to market their home accordingly and work with the neighborhood and not to their own advantage." She was implying I was giving her a low ball price just to make a quick sale if I ended up listing her home. My value was a high price of $625,000. She further went on to say: "I have done my homework and have had several evaluations from several experts and $645-$675k is certainly in the ballpark for our home".

She ended up convincing another Realtor to take the overpriced listing at $640,000-670,000 in April 2005. To make a long story short, over the next 2 years, it went through 3 real estate agents, and 1 REO listing without the home being sold. She wisely refinanced for $540,000 in August 2005, got some tenants in there, and then high-tailed it to Texas finally leading to foreclosure in April 2007.

Even though that might have been a seller's market then, and today is a buyer's market, the lesson to be learned is still the same: there are real estate agents that will take overpriced listings and seller's who think they know the value of their home better than an experienced agent. Having an overpriced home can end up costing a seller both time and money. Seller's should do their homework, that's for sure. But it should be researching and interviewing agents to find out how well they know the local market, how quickly they sell homes, and how many homes have they sold recently among other things. It's an important part of your financial well-being and should not be taken lightly.

Summit View Community in Oceanside, CA. One of my favorites.

Tony Cannon (Keller Williams Realty) — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 02:07:18 -0600

I don't know if many Oceanside folks could tell you where the Summit View community is located. It's one of those smaller tracts(only about 100 single family detached homes), but it has a lot of fine qualities that make it one of my favorites. It must be liked by the owners there too, since only about 2 or 3 homes sell each year and property values are holding well for Oceanside.

Built by Beazer 1999-2001, the homes have no HOA, no Mello Roos, and property taxes less than 1.1%. Over half the homes have panoramic views and generally pretty good lot sizes with the usuable area at least 6000sf. Located in the Vista School District with highly regarded elementary and middle schools.(http://www.k12.vusd.ca.us)

There are 5 floorplans ranging from a single story 2260sf to a two story 3118sf home. 2007 prices are in the $600,000-700,000 range. Street names are Bella Collina, Napoli, and Verona.

More community information available at http://www.NorthSanDiegoHomes.us

River Ranch Community in Oceanside, CA Market Report for 2/20/08

Tony Cannon (Keller Williams Realty) — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 01:44:41 -0600

River Ranch has homes built in 2001-2002 by Fieldstone and KB Homes and is located at the corner of Hwy76 and Old Grove. It represented a reasonable price point for newer homes, without Mello Roos in a gated community with pool, convenient location and good schools in the area. Unfortunately, buyers there seem to have gotten in over their heads and now I recognize it as one of the newer tracts that's had the most price decline.

Today, there are 12 homes active, 2 in escrow, and 6 sold in the past 4.5 months according to the Sandicor MLS. 4 of the actives are short sales, 1 is bank owned; 1 of the pendings is bank owned, 1 is a short sale; and all 6 of the sales were bank owned. The 6 solds averaged $192/square foot, while the same time frame last year was $238/sf representing a 19.3% decline in price for the average 2335sf home. At least the time it takes to sell a home hasn't changed that much and hovers around 80 days.

Visit http://www.NorthSanDiegoHomes.us for more information

River Ranch gated community in Oceanside, CA. KB Homes and Fieldstone

Tony Cannon (Keller Williams Realty) — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 01:11:32 -0600

The gated River Ranch community in Oceanside, CA located near Hwy76 and Old Grove involved 2 builders: KB Homes and Fieldstone under the phase names Avondale and Sedona for KB, Somerton and Del Sol for Fieldstone. Construction of these single family detached homes took place around 2001-2002.

Avondale: Plan 1 is 1860sf, plan 2 is 2291sf, plan 3 is 2459sf
Sedona: Plan 1 is 2337sf, plan 2 is 2492sf, plan 3 is 3149(or 3146)sf

Somerton: Plan 2254, 2478, and 2650 (floorplans)
Del Sol: Plan 2648, 2990, 3352, and 3516 (floorplans)

Community amenities include swimming pool and spa, half basketball court, children's playground, and picnic area. Lots are small, mostly around 4500sf. As of 2/20/08, HOA dues run about $95/month and prices are $420,000-660,000. Walking distance to Nichols Elementary School, part of the Oceanside School District (www.oside.k12.ca.us), across the highway from Lowe's (www.lowes.com), and property taxes under 1.1% with no Mello Roos. Street names are: Vista Verde, Saddlehorn, Rawhide, Wind River, Deer Valley, black Canyon, Alamo Way, Monte Vista, Spring Canyon, River Ranch, Aspen Creed, Meadow Sprin, Silver Spring, Morgan Creek, Deer Creek, and Forest Ranch.

More community information and school scores at http://www.NorthSanDiegoHomes.us

Villages of Rancho Del Oro in Oceanside, CA. Market Update 2/20/08

Tony Cannon (Keller Williams Realty) — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 00:08:08 -0600

Well, it has been 6 months since my last update for Rancho Del Oro(RDO) and a lot has happened since then. The lenders dropping many loan programs in July 2007 caused almost a halt of sales for RDO in the next couple months causing a 10% drop in prices in those 2 months. And sales have remained relatively slow since then. 100% financing is limited to sales prices less than $417,000 and buyers for more expensive homes that actually have a down payment are few and far between. Foreclosures have become the driving market force. Many REO(bank owned homes) are now on the market and generating sales, but the lowered prices have hurt all sellers. Successful short sales are practically non-existent, so it means more foreclosures lie ahead.

As of 2/20/08, the good news is there are only 45 detached homes actively for sale in the Sandicor MLS in the Villages of Rancho Del Oro(including the Beachwood community) compared to 77 last August. Plus 17 homes show as Pending status. If that active inventory and rate of offers continues, things could stabilize, but then again, 2007 started out much like this and then the bomb dropped.

Looking at sales in the past 4.5 months, 23 homes sold for $236/square foot. A year ago it was 44 homes for $277/sf during the same time period representing a decline of almost half the number of sales and 14.8% drop in price for the average 1970sf detached home.

What does this mean for Rancho Del Oro sellers? The good ole days are gone and you need an experienced, honest real estate agent and financial advisor to make sure you understand your best course of action. For buyers, you need to keep a long term perspective, and buy a home based on need not speculation.

More about the area can be found at http://www.NorthSanDiegoHomes.us

Real estate agents own properties in foreclosure or are short sales

Tony Cannon (Keller Williams Realty) — Wed, 20 Feb 2008 22:38:23 -0600

Since I've been doing BPOs(broker price opinion...kind of like a mini-appraisal on properties in financial distress) in the north San Diego County area, it has become increasingly obvious that a number of real estate agents in the area have homes with a notice of default(behind on their payments), or are attempting short sales(debt obligations are more than the sales price less the cost to sell) on their own properties. I can maybe understand if these are agents that are new in the business or haven't sold many homes, but I've seen agents who sell more homes than me finding themselves in this position.

My question is: how good is a real estate agent at advising clients about home ownership if they can't even manage their own home(s)? In fact, at my prior broker, the office manager had her home go into foreclosure, thus enabling me to label her "the real estate manager who can't manage her own real estate".

Your comments are appreciated

San Diego Restaurant Week is great. Too bad for Carlsbad and Oceanside

Tony Cannon (Keller Williams Realty) — Mon, 21 Jan 2008 01:45:37 -0600

Since Realtors like nothing more than eating, especially if someone else is paying or it's a good deal, I thought I'd mention San Diego Restaurant Week is happening twice in 2008...that's great news. Now in its fourth year as San Diego County's largest and most successful dining event, San Diego Restaurant Week was launched with the intention of spotlighting the city as a premier dining destination.

Wouldn't it be nice if we could spotlight Carlsbad and Oceanside as having fine dining too? Encinitas is right next door and they are able to produce about 7 restaurants to participate, while Carlsbad and Oceanside could only muster 1 each: BlueFire Grill at the La Costa Resort in Carlsbad and Vigilucci's Osteria in downtown Oceanside. Both cities possess a population at least as big as Del Mar or Encinitas, but the presence of quality dining experiences seems somewhat unfulfilled.

Don't you think places like West or Tuscany or Tommy V's or any of the Four Seasons Aviara restaurants would want to expand their horizons? Would it hurt the Cuban Restaurant in Oceanside(Azafran) to try and get it's name out there?

If you think we could do better, I encourage you to help me launch a blog site aiming to put North San Diego County on the map for all that it has to offer. I want to know what you think is North County's Best...whether it's for food, shopping, hiking, beaches, services, schools, etc feel free to contribute at http://nsdbest.blogspot.com/

Signs of hope for price stabilization in Oceanside?

Tony Cannon (Keller Williams Realty) — Sat, 05 Jan 2008 02:44:07 -0600

The inventory of Active listings in Oceanside's Rancho Del Oro tract home community of about 1700 homes currently sits at about 48 single family detached homes. In August of 2007, that number was about 80 and for Jan-May 2007 it stood at about 55 homes, when sales were brisk with prices steady. This community is considered mid-priced within Oceanside and gives a good indication of the overall health of the market.

Many sellers have taken their homes off of the market due to the holiday season. However, if those sellers decide to wait out this market, or have turned their homes into rental properties, this lower inventory level can help stop the freefall of prices we saw August to November.

For much of Oceanside, the bank owned properties(REO) are controlling the market. Short sale listings are prevalent, however, most do not result in actual sales.

My feeling is the lower priced Oceanside homes(under $450,000) may see another 10% price drop through 2008. As the price of the home gets higher, the drop in value becomes less due to less volume of distressed property sales. Arrowood may still have price pressure due to aggressive tactics from the new home builders still present there.

I will keep a close watch on market activity over the next few months to gauge whether we may have hit bottom yet. If you are also interested in keeping tabs for yourself or potential buyers, just let me know, and I will put you on my market analysis distribution list.