Or do you just feel like you’ve been raped… again?

Our U.S. House of Representatives and Senate reached a “closed door” agreement last night on a tentative $789 billion “stimulus” bill meant to send signals to the American consumer that our economic woes will soon improve and instill confidence in a brighter future.  So, what’s so stimulating in the agreement?

• $90 billion in increased federal matching funds to states to help pay for Medicaid, along with an additional $54 billion that could be used to build and repair schools and colleges.
• $11.5 billion supporting the IDEA program for special education, along with an additional $10 billion to help low-income students.
• Funds to modernize the electrical grid, make federal buildings more energy efficient and to help low-income families weatherize their homes.
• Health insurance subsidies for people laid off from their jobs, and money to support hospitals in modernizing health information technology
• Infrastructure funds for building and repairing highways and bridges, expanding transit systems, upgrading railroads and airports, repair federal buildings, and bring broadband Internet service to under-served areas.
• $70 billion as a one-year fix for the alternative minimum tax, saving some 20 million middle and upper-income taxpayers about $2,000 in taxes in 2009.
• And, finally, an exciting, stimulating, tax credit for 95% of American workers which will add a whopping $13.00 to take-home pay beginning in June.  But wait… that $13 buck will drop to about $8.00 next January!

But where's the stimulus for the economy?

The singular item which could have put the economy on the road to recovery – fixing the housing market crisis via a $15,000 tax credit for all homebuyers – was totally deleted from the package. 

The world-wide economic crisis – banks going under, credit unavailability, home foreclosures and insolvent builders resulting in higher unemployment rates -  began with the implosion of sub-prime lenders and the mortgage market. So there’s no reason to believe that if housing led us into this situation, it can’t lead us out.

In fact, that’s exactly what it did in 1974.  In that year, our housing market was in much worse shape than today.  But President Gerald Ford and Congress passed a one-year tax credit for anyone buying and occupying a standing home, and within one year two-thirds of existing inventory was sold, housing prices stopped declining, and the economy was stabilized.  Is that so hard to understand, Congressmen and Senators?  Do you not learn from the past?

Are you stimulated yet, or do you feel more like a Sabine woman than an American citizen?

Maybe this will “stimulate” you.  Take a look at some of things inside the compromise stimulus package:

• $650 million for digital TV coupons
• $600 million to buy new cars for the Feds
• $650 million for wildlife management
• $570 million for climate initiatives
• $150 million to improve Smithsonian buildings
• $75 million for “stop smoking” programs
• $30 million to restore the wetlands habitat for the salt marsh harvest mouse (a Nancy Pelosi pet project)
• $30 billion to improve Federal buildings
• $1.5 billion to prevent homelessness, and, Oh Yeah…
• $2 billion as a “gift” to someone’s friends at ACORN.

Are you “stimulated” yet?  If not, I suggest you use your $13.00 windfall to buy Viagra.  Then, maybe next election, we can stick it to the 535 politicos running this country rather than allowing them to continue screwing us.

I don't make New Years' resolutions. Never have. Never will. I believe they're only made to be broken. In fact, I don't know a single person who has ever kept a New Years' resolution! But, I did decide a couple of weeks ago that I would loose some weight.

As long as my desire to loose weight was not a “resolution,” but just something that I thought I should do for my own health and comfort, I figured I was much more likely to be successful and not so prone to disappointment and abject guilt trips. And so I began.

I adjusted the amount that I eat, and to some extent what I eat. I adjusted the amount that I drink, and to a great extent what I drink. I'm really doing great at my adjusted lifestyle, in the past three weeks, I've dropped 14.8 pounds. I feel better. My clothes fit better. I seem to have more energy, and I'm much more comfortable with myself. It really hasn't been nearly as bad as I expected... until today.

My doorbell rang. I dropped what I was doing and answered, There on my front porch stood two cute little blond girls, about 8 and 10, in full Girl Scout regalia, with their equally blond Mommy watching dutifully from the sidewalk.

“Hello Sir! I'm Barbie, and this is Gidget! Would you like to buy some Girl Scout cookies!?!”

“Aww, Honey... I'm sorry, but I always buy them from my Granddaughter.” I glanced over at Mommy and said, “I am really sorry.”

“That's okay,” she said. “You are still supporting the Girl Scouts!”

And I do support the Girl Scouts. It costs me about $100 bucks every year to make sure Olivia (my granddaughter) gets her “cookie patch.” Expensive little items, those cookie patches! But I know how important they are to Barbie and Gidget and Olivia.

Back during the late 70's when my daughters were Girl Scout age, I was a Girl Scout Troop leader... one of the first two males in North Carolina to become a “Certified Troop Leader” by our state and local Girl Scout Councils. My buddy and I, along with four female Troop Leaders, led the largest and best Troop in Charlotte – Mecklenburg... 45 little girls.

Why then do I say “Curses on you, Girl Scout?” It's not because I dislike little girls, Ya gotta love them like I do my two daughters. It's not because of bad experiences being a Troop Leader. I enjoyed every minute of “being a Girl Scout.” I even had a uniform (sans little skirt, of course!). It's because I know they're going to blow all my hard work at eating and drinking and exercising like I should. It's because when Olivia shows up at the door in March with those bulging sacks, they're not going to be full of Thin Mints and Doe-Si-Does. They're going to be full of my hard-lost fat!

But upon reflection, I realize that the extra weight and $100 cookie patches were probably worth it. Today, partially due to my guidance and influence, there are lovely young women from my Troop's 45 little girls who are doctors, attorneys, engineers, mothers and housewives... and one Hooters girl.

Oh well... you can't positively influence everyone. I don't know what happened with those other 44 kids!

Support Your Girl Scouts

Buy Girl Scout Cookies!

When I checked my email late last night, I had a message from U.S. Senator Johnny Isakson's (R-Ga.) office about a new bill he introduced called the Fix Housing First Homebuyer Tax Credit Act to expand the homebuyer tax credit passed by Congress last year.

Considering the provisions of Senator Isakson's bill and his speech to colleagues on the Senate floor about the bill, I think someone has finally gotten this thing figured out!

Senator Isakson has already met with President Obama's team, explaining the bill and urging their support, and told his Senate colleagues of his hope that they will... "embrace this concept of incentivizing the housing market so we can stabilize values, stop the continuing erosion of equity, and begin to reflate - not inflate but reflate - the housing market.

What the bill proposes is repeal of the "now-you-see-it / now-you-don't" $7500 tax credit for first-time homebuyers passed last year, and replacing it with a tax credit between $10,000 and $22,000 for every home buyer.  The tax credit for this year could even be claimed against 2008 income taxes, immediately incentivizing the marketplace.

Why did Senator Isakson introduce the bill?  He believes the deployment of the first half of TARP money meant to stabilize the banking system, ease consumer credit, and help the housing market has had disappointing results.  "While it probably did stabilize the banking system, there has yet to be a loosening of credit and there has yet to be a recovery in the housing market," Senator Isakson said.  And throwing the remainder of the $750 billion TARP allocation into the market without specific plans and directions for its use would only be addressing the ... "symptoms of a serious illness rather than treat (ing) the illness."

Having been in the real estate business for over 30 years, Isakson was around during the collapse of the housing market in 1974 - one even worse than the current situation.  At that time, President Gerald Ford and Congress passed a tax credit bill for families buying and occupying a home from the standing 3-year inventory of homes on the market.  "Within 1 year's time, which was the limited time of the tax credit, two-thirds of the housing inventory on the market was sold, values stopped declining and started improving, and we had a stabilization of our economy, the end of a recessionary period, and the beginning of prosperity," according to Isakson.

I believe Isakson is right when he states, "...the housing market led us in; the housing market will lead us out.  It is time for us to fix housing first."  But he faces an uphill battle.  Not only does he have to convince the current administration and his colleagues on both sides of the isle, but the Barney Frank(s), Christopher Dodd(s) and Nancy Pelosi(s) of the world who got us into this housing and economic crisis in the first place.

For more information about the current housing crisis and its effect on current economic conditions, read the text of Senator Isakson's speech to the U.S. Senate and my blog, "Six Degrees of Separation."  Your comments are always welcome.

I'm a Republican.  I've never been, nor will I ever be a Democrat.  To my daughters' chagrin, I'm much too conservative.  But - politics aside - what happened in this country yesterday with the inauguration of Barack Obama as 44^th President of the United States cannot help but cause a sense of pride, inspiration, and hope for our nation.

The special thing that happened yesterday was not that the first black president was inaugurated, not that his speech was great (or not), not that Michelle's outfit was lovely (or not), or that Aretha's hat was tacky (it was!).  The special thing that happened was that almost 2 million Americans on the mall in Washington endured hardship, celebrated together, and demonstrated by their "actions" that all people are created equal. 

The special thing was that millions of other Americans celebrated with those in Washington, sensing a bond of freedom and equality with their countrymen and a new pride in their nation.

Many people throughout history have said that all people are created equal.  But few have shown it in their actions or inspired others to act as if it were true.   It does no good to say it and not believe it.  It does no good to believe it and not act like it.  It does no good to act like it and not try to make others believe and show it through their actions.

I don't know whether President Obama will be a great leader or not, whether or not his leadership can resolve this nation's problems, or whether he can really change the way our government works for the better.  Those are things all of us will have to watch, and call him to task for if he doesn't live up to his promises.  That's our job.

But I do know that, yesterday, President Obama inspired millions of Americans to simultaneously believe and act like all people are created equal.  For that alone, he deserves our respect and support.  

It is now up to us - to all of us - to ensure that yesterday was not one brief, shining moment.  It is up to us to ensure that yesterday was not special because of a bond we "shared," but because of a bond we "share."  It is up to us to believe and to act like all people are created equal.  For until we do, it will not be so.

Life isn't about waiting for the storm to pass... It's about learning to dance in the Rain!

You've probably heard the theory that everyone in the world is separated from everyone else by only six degrees.  That is to say, considering all the people you know and have come in contact with, all the people they know and have come in contact with, etc. to the sixth degree, you indirectly know or have come in contact with everyone living in the world today.  If you think about that theory, it can also explain the state of our economy here in Covington and, indeed, the world.

I received a call this week from a friend who's an architect and residential builder.  He is helping Newton County officials put together an application to receive some of the federal "bail-out" funds to help our local housing industry.  He asked if I could get some statistics for him on our local housing market to help support information in the county's application. 

What I realized in putting together those statistics is how closely related the housing market in Covington is to the state of our local economy and the economic woes around the globe.

New home sales in Newton County dropped from 1226 in 2003 to only 329 in 2008.  In 2003, new homes were selling in an average time of 159 days for an average price of 101.1% of the asking price.  In 2008, it took, on average, 198 days to sell a new home, and then at only 93.4% of the asking price.  The housing bubble had burst, and home builders in Covington and Newton County effectively stopped building new homes.  (There are currently only 329 new homes on the market in Newton County, but a 16.2-month supply of resales and foreclosed homes.)

Economists report that the housing market is a leading indicator of the state of our economy. So, what happens when builders can't sell their new homes and stop building?  The six degrees of separation theory takes over.

When builders aren't building, they don't need developers, banks, material suppliers, realtors, carpenters, electricians, plumbers, drywall hangers, landscapers, brick layers, concrete workers, or house cleaners.

Developers, banks, material suppliers, realtors, carpenters, electricians, plumbers, drywall hangers, landscapers, brick layers and concrete workers don't need land, new offices, office supplies, advertising, lumber, nails, tools, wiring, light fixtures, plumbing fixtures, drywall, sod, plants, pipe, brick, concrete, or new trucks.

Banks foreclose on the builders' inventory and tighten credit on everyone because they don't have money to make new loans.  (There were 779 foreclosures in Newton County in 2008.)

Municipalities loose revenue from taxes and utilities, putting law enforcement, firemen and sanitation workers out of work.

There's no need for manufacturers' products so they don't need as many factory workers.  Nor do they need freight carriers' trucks, trains, ships, and airplanes to deliver their goods.

Builders, developers, bankers, wholesalers, realtors, carpenters, electricians, plumbers, drywall hangers, carpenters, electricians, landscapers, brick layers, concrete workers, house cleaners, cops, firemen, sanitation workers, factory workers, and truckers are unemployed.  They don't have the money to shop at the malls, buy new cars or eat out.  Retail workers and restaurant workers become unemployed.  Unemployment rises to 7.5% (in Georgia).

A simplistic explanation?  Probably...

Realistic?  Yea, it's happened...

So, did housing market problems in Covington and Newton County cause all our economic woes?

No!  But when the same thing happens in Covington and Atlanta, and Orlando, and Hillsdale, New Jersey, and Spokane, and Denver, and Walnut Creek, California all at the same time, there's only six degrees of separation between us, a U.S. recession, and a global economic crisis.

"Life isn't about waiting for the storm to pass...  It's about learning to dance in the Rain"