Weekly Market Report

Week of May 23, 2011

For only the second time since the end of last year's tax credit, there were more Pending Sales for a given week than in the prior year. A total of 958 buyers entered into contract for the week ending May 14, an increase of 15.4 percent and the highest number of pendings since the week ending May 8, 2010.But let's not get too excited just yet, because this apparent shift in Twin Cities home purchase activity was primarily driven by the post-tax-credit slowdown seen at this time last year. To illustrate this point, 2011 sales activity has increased 4.1 percent since the final week of April, while 2010 saw a 43.5 percent decrease during the same period. On the supply side, New Listings have come back in line with historical norms for this time of year. Sellers brought 1,704 new homes online, or 7.7 percent more than the same time in 2010. Again, 2011 activity has been fairly stable over the past month while 2010 activity declined by nearly 33 percent.The 23,739 Active Listings for Sale have grown slightly over the course of the year, but remain 10.1 percent under 2010 inventory levels or about 2,700 units slimmer. All those crunches are really starting to pay off as we enter bikini season.

Weekly Market Activity Report

Week of May 9, 2011

The final week of comparisons to last year's tax credit market is upon us. For the week ending April 30, New Listings in the Twin Cities were down 3.9 percent from the same week in 2010. A total of 1,733 new homes were introduced to the market, marking the smallest decline in seller activity in 17 weeks.Pending Sales were up at this time last year because of the tax credit, thus buyer activity was down 37.4 percent to 920 purchase agreements signed. That's the 21st consecutive week of year-over-year declines in Pending Sales.Inventory levels dropped 10.8 percent from last year, but there are still 23,265 homes to choose from in the 13-county metro area.The story should change significantly in the coming weeks as comparisons to last year's credit-induced spike in market activity comes to an end. The numbers should show gains over the post-tax-credit period during summer and fall 2010.

Weekly Market Activity Report

Weekly Market Activity Report

New Listings for the week ending April 16 were down 21.5 percent from the same week in 2010 to 1,846 properties. That's a smaller decline than the 3-month average, which is down 26.4 percent. It appears that year-over-year declines in listing activity peaked around the end of March when motivated sellers were eager for buyers to consider their properties during the run-up to the end of last year's tax credit deadline.

Pending Sales, too, predictably fell short of April 2010's credit-inspired five-year high-water mark. The 898 purchase agreements signed were 18.6 percent fewer than last year. That's on-par with the 17.6 percent 3-month average decline.
Purchase demand is currently the highest it's been since the week ending May 8, 2010. Sales activity in 2010 peaked during the week that ended April 25 and then fell sharply, so we can expect a very different story in two weeks.

The winner is still inventory, which plunged by 15.4 percent from the same week in 2010. It's worth noting that the number of active listings for sale ballooned at this time last year as sellers moved to take advantage of the increased buying activity. Notwithstanding, we haven't seen declines of this magnitude in nearly 15 months.
It's a trend that will mean fewer options for buyers as well as improved market balance.

Weekly Market Activity Report

For the week ending April 9, sellers introduced 1,770 New Listings to the Twin Cities housing market. That's down an even 30.0 percent from the same week in 2010 when motivated sellers rightfully decided it was time to sell.

Current buyer activity simply cannot compete with an elevated 2010 incentive market. Pending Sales were down 22.7 percent from the same week last year to 838 contracts written. Drawing from a wider time frame can soften the theatrical plunge. Buyer activity was down 16.7 percent on average over the past three months. Comparing non-incentive markets to non-incentive markets also tells a more realistic story. Buyer activity was down only 2.3 percent compared to the same week in 2008.

The gap between this year's and last year's Active Listings for Sale has been growing for 10 straight weeks. There is also a pattern with year-over-year inventory levels, which are down 14.7 percent from 2010, 12.3 percent from 2009 and 28.3 percent from 2008. Those shopping for a home now have 22,869 options or about 27 active listings per purchase agreement signed for the week.

Weekly Market Activity Report

Daylight hours may be increasing but contrary to seasonal norms, the number of homes for sale continues to remain about the same. There are now 22,449 active listings in the Twin Cities, 14.4 percent fewer than last year. Nine consecutive weeks of year-over-year inventory decline bring a number of implications-mostly good, some not so good.

On the good side, sellers have fewer properties to compete with. This should quicken market times and increase seller leverage at the closing table. Improving demand with unchanging supply has the tendency to lift prices. On the not-so-good side, buyers have fewer options than in recent years. In light of skyrocketing affordability, historically low interest rates, foreclosure bargains, favorable negotiations and low prices, buyers are still proving to be either very patient, highly cost-conscious or both. Even so, purchase demand has more or less kept pace with non-incentivized 2009 levels.

New Listings decreased for the 14th consecutive week, dropping 19.2 percent to 1,738 properties. Pending Sales hit their highest weekly total this year but still trail last year's pace, down 25.1 percent year-over-year to 840 purchase agreements signed.

Weekly Market Activity Report
Week of April 4, 2011
For the week ending March 26, Pending Sales in the Twin Cities metro posted a 27.2 percent decrease from the same week last year to 764 purchase agreements. Sellers listed 1,402 or 37.4 percent fewer homes than they did during the same week in 2010. The repetitive mantra says: "Don't put too much stock in these year-over-year comparisons since we're up against an elevated baseline due to the 2010 home buyer tax credit."In the meantime, the gap between this year's and last year's inventory levels continues to grow. The current number of Active Listings for Sale looks and feels 12.3 percent leaner than last year at this time. Buyers currently have 22,158 properties to choose from, which is the lowest total at this point in the year since 2005. The spring jeans we've been wearing for the last several seasons now look downright baggy.

Weekly Market Activity Report

The week ending March 19 showed a 16.6 percent decline in Pending Sales from the same week last year and a 36.9 percent decline in New Listings.

With a little imagination, spring is in the air. Buyer activity has been gradually on the rise for most of 2011 as prospective buyers seem to prefer sporadic puddles to insurmountable snowbanks. Compared to last year's incentive market, however, the year-over-year declines in purchase activity have been growing as well.

The number of Active Listings for Sale has remained remarkably stable thus far in 2011. In 2010, inventory levels had fluctuated by more than 6,000 units from the first of the year. That volatility has been tamped down below 1,000 units so far this year. With no additional purchase incentive in the pipeline, this should bring supply-side improvements and price stability as demand returns to historically reasonable levels.

Weekly Market Report
Home sales in the Twin Cities metropolitan area continued to exhibit signs of divergence from last year's incentive market. The 812 Pending Sales for the week ending March 12 were 20.9 percent fewer than the same week in 2010. Since this year's weekly Pending Sales figures look more like a standard bell curve than last year's railroad spike, we'll continue to see declines through the end of April followed by gains during the summer months.Sellers introduced 1,453 new homes or 31.1 percent fewer than the same week last year. Active Listings for Sale has been shrinking relative to last year and holding fairly steady at or below 22,000 units so far this year. As of March 21, the current inventory of 22,077 made for 10.0 percent fewer homes for buyers to choose from. This trend has helped the Months Supply of Inventory metric maintain at 7.5 months, just outside the five to six month balanced range.

Weekly Market Report
For the week ending March 5, there were 717 signed purchase agreements, a decline of 11.4 percent from a year ago when the market was stimulated by the federal home-buyer tax credit. Over the last three months, there have been almost 900 fewer signed purchase agreements than during the same period a year prior.On the supply side, sellers brought 1,845 new homes onto the market, or 19.0 percent fewer than the same week last year. The three-month average pace of listing activity was 16.6 percent slower than it was a year ago.Despite the decline in supply, there are a few other metrics that indicate challenging conditions remain for sellers. The Average Days on Market Until Sale currently sits at 157, up 16.1 percent from a year ago. Similarly, the Percent of Original List Price Received is down to 88.2 from last year's mark of 93.2.In essence, in an environment where it takes homes longer to sell, sellers should be focused on proper pricing and preparation if they want a faster sale. Although there are fewer new listings, smart pricing and marketing are more important than ever.

Weekly Market Activity Report

For the week ending February 26, home purchase activity in the Twin Cities diverged further away from last year's tax-credit-inspired market. There were 606 purchase agreements signed during the week, which made for a 30.2 percent decline from year-ago levels. On average, over the past three months, Twin Citizens made a less-distorted 9.5 percent fewer home purchases than they did during the same three-month period in 2010.

On the supply side, sellers brought 1,238 new homes onto the market, or 27.8 percent fewer than the same week last year. The three-month average pace of listing activity was 16.1 percent slower than it was last year.

Both the 2011 and 2010 inventory levels have begun to climb at this time of year, which is normal. Sellers were more likely to list their home at this time last year knowing that credit-motivated buyers were more determined to purchase. It seems as though sellers wanted to ensure their property appeared in preliminary MLS queries while buyers continued to shop around for the best value up until the deadline.