With the home-buyer tax credit now expanded and extended, sales activity in the Twin Cities region slowed down as expected for the week ending November 7. And by "slowed down," we mean it "only" posted a 17.2 percent year-over-year increase as opposed to last week's 42.9 percent year-over-year increase. So we're being openly facetious; market activity is still robust despite the respite from urgency.
New listings were down 14.3 percent for the same time period comparison, but the expansion of the tax credit to provide $6,500 to move-up or move-down buyers may create more new seller activity in the coming months.
And for the first time in several years, new listings may actually be welcome. The region has shed more than 12,000 units of inventory since the supply peak in September of 2007. In the lower price ranges, buyers are facing a shortage of good inventory
The Twin Cities housing market continues to post strong pending sales figures as fall progresses. For the week ending October 31, there were 826 pending sales. That's down from the week before but 42.9 percent greater than the same week last year.
The extension and expansion of the tax credit means that first-time home buyer activity will remain strong, but don't bank on the same blockbuster numbers we have seen this year. If you were a potential first-time buyer who was qualified to purchase in 2009, odds are good that you already bought. The fact that the income limits have been raised for eligibility does help since it widens the credit's availability.
The $6,500 credit for second-time buyers will spur some sellers to put their homes on the market who had previously been on the fence. New listings will likely strengthen this winter and into early 2010 as a result.
Some updated numbers for this month:
Days on Market is still shrinking, down to 128. That's 9.4 percent below last October.
The Percent of Original List Price Received at Sale bumped up to 94.6.
The Housing Affordability Index increased to 202, up 25.5 percent over 2008.
Did you get all your screams out over the Halloween weekend? Well here's a scary thought to keep you in the Halloween spirit: we're running out of homes to sell in the lower price ranges. For the week ending October 24 there were 926 signed purchase agreements, up a monstrous (get it?) 53.8 percent from a year ago. Over the last three months, sales of homes under $250,000 are up 40.0 percent from the same period during 2008, while sales above that watermark have dipped by 0.3 percent. As a result, compared to a year ago the inventory of available homes below $250,000 has dropped by over 5,300 units.
With the possibility of the federal tax credit for first-time buyers being extended and expanded, there may be significant shortages of inventory for buyers looking in those price ranges as 2010 begins.
For November, the overall Supply-Demand Ratio is a paltry 7.69 per buyer, down 29.3 percent from the year prior.
The end of the first-time home buyers tax credit looms just 30 days beyond a Halloween horizon, and home sales remain strong in the lead-up to tricks and treats and the impending tax credit DEADline. For the week ending October 17, there were 954 signed purchase agreements, howling up 54.4 percent from a year ago. Almost two-thirds of these pending sales were priced below $190,000-evidence that first-time buyers are carrying a heavy share of the activity.
The strong sales we've seen over the last 15 months mean that our inventory of available homes has shrunk like the heads in a witches' brew. The 23,896 homes on the market right now represents a 21.2 percent decrease from the decidedly more scary market of 2008, and it is the lowest mark at this point in the year since 2004.
Expect home sales to begin dropping as tax credit qualifiers finish their mad rush to the closing table, but unlike those camp counselors at Crystal Lake, we'll all make it out of this market alive.
The fall Twin Cities housing market has been full of wild things, mostly first-time home buyers stampeding to take advantage of the federal tax credit before it expires on November 30. The week ending October 10 was no different than others we've seen this fall. There were 947 signed purchase agreements for the week, a 37.6 percent increase over the same week last year.
At 1,543 new listings we're down 4.4 percent from the same week a year ago. The trend continues: New listings haven't been keeping up with the amount of sales, bringing total housing supply down dramatically in the Twin Cities. There are currently 24,901 homes on the market, 21.0 percent less than a year ago.
The rumpus is likely to subside as we near the November 30 tax credit deadline, silencing the sales activity of the market's most active buyers.
Autumn may be bringing colder temperatures (and snow, too: what's up with that?!?) but the Twin Cities housing market is still hot. Contrary to the typical fall slowdown, pending sales are gaining weekly momentum as home buyers take advantage of the final days of the Federal tax credit.
For the week ending October 3, signed purchase agreements were a stunning 61.2% higher than last year, jumping from 647 to 1,043. New listings are a different story, however, down 8.0% below the previous year. Total active listings remain sluggish compared to a year ago, with the 24,354 on the market representing a 20.9% drop from a year ago.
There are some new stats this week that help bring some perspective on just how much better things have gotten for sellers in the last year:
Days on Market Until Sale: at 129 days is 11 percent below last year.
Percent of Original List Price Received at Sale: at 93.9% is 1.8 percent higher than last year.
Months Supply of Inventory: at 6.6 is 30.5% lower than last year and is closer to a balanced market.
All three indicators are important reflections of market shift. Yet we can't minimize that sellers still face tough conditions, especially in the higher price ranges where sales are still on a downward trend.
Fall is officially on in the Twin Cities, but it hasn't slowed the housing market as much as usual. After the school year begins, we typically see a drop in buyer activity, but the 2009 fall market is remaining robust due in large part to the final weeks of the tax credit for first-time home buyers. There were 1,056 pending sales for the week ending September 26, up 41 percent from the same week last year.
As a direct result, inventory is dropping like a stone. There are approximately 24,500 homes for sale in the 13-county metro area, down more than 20 percent from a year ago.
The October 2009 Supply-Demand Ratio (SDR) comes in at 6.88 houses per buyer, down 22.5 percent from last year. The SDR has shown year-over-year drops of 30 percent or more for the past few months, but we're projecting that the year-over-year decline for October will be smaller because pending sales are likely to be significantly lower if the federal tax credit for first-time buyers is not extended. If the credit goes *poof*, it will remove buyers from the market.
In 2008, Labor Day fell on September 1; this year, it fell on September 7. That six-day gap is enough to make our year-over-year comparisons of weekly market activity look a little goofy this week. For instance, for the week ending September 5, there were a whopping 42.9 percent more pending sales than there were a year ago, but this is only because Labor Day-a holiday that notoriously silences the local real estate market for several days-fell during that week last year and didn't this year. Expect similar confusion next week.
Independent of these numerical oddities, sales are still extremely robust as the days remaining on the first-time buyer tax credit continues to tick down. 78...77...76...
New metrics updated this week:
Housing Affordability Index: At 195, it towers over last year's affordability by 29.1 percent. Falling prices continue to do their job, at least for buyers.
Months Supply of Inventory: The 6.9 months of inventory available is 30.3 percent below this time last year.
For the first time in 9 months, the number of weekly new listings coming on the market was actually higher than it was a year ago. The 1,641 new homes on the market during the week ending August 29 represent a 3.3 percent increase from a year ago. The slight year-over-year uptick is due in part to growth in the number of new, traditional, non-lender-mediated listings.
For the most recent reporting week, the number of brand new traditional listings (excluding re-lists that have already been on the market sometime in the last 12 months) has grown 20.3 percent compared to a year ago. Home sellers are becoming more active, likely in response to the increase in home sales seen throughout the year.
And if you look at three of our newly updated metrics, it becomes obvious why more sellers are jumping in:
Days on Market Until Sale - 133 days, a drop of 7.1 percent from a year ago.
Percent of Original List Price Received at Sale - 94.1, up 1.5 percent from a year ago.
Supply-Demand Ratio - 5.46 homes per buyer in September, down 30.3 percent from a year ago.
The Twin Cities housing market continues to regain a semblance of balance in supply and demand. For the week ending August 8, there were 1,802 new listings, down 9.5 percent from last year. There were also 1,037 purchase agreements signed (pending sales), up 15.2 percent above last year. The total inventory of homes available for sale is down 21.5 percent from a year ago.
The Housing Affordability Index (HAI) of 195 has begun to taper off from its high of 219 earlier this year, yet the current HAI still represents an increase of more than 30 percent from the boom years earlier this decade. Months Supply of Inventory currently sits at 7.2-down 31.4 percent from last year's mark of 10.5.
All in all, the see-saw is moving back towards equilibrium. This doesn't mean that everything is hunky-dory; sellers still face a challenging market, especially in the higher price ranges. But the overall shift is welcome news.
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