Are you smiling??? - 06/30/11 03:11 PM
Are you smiling???
It's a simple question maybe a much more difficult answer.
Are you smiling? Who cares right? Does it matter? problems are circling around you like sharks for the kill, life is tough and your kids are driving you crazy with issues drama, your boss could be the dumbest person on the planet and is killing you, or you have the worst clients ever... just name it but whatever the answer is YOU BETTER BE SMILING!
Let me ask you one easy question... which of these two photos makes you smile and attracts you?
I know the answer its the … (6 comments)
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Mortgage rates... oof taking a hit today - 06/30/11 02:15 PM
mortgage rates... oof taking a hit today??
well lets get this thing started, today has brought on a whopping -53bps to the bond market and the 10Y treasury yield is almost to 3.20% (it was 2.90 a few days ago). This is being fueled by a ridiculous Chicago PMI number??? Maybe they missed the other reports and all other data going on in the world???
Seriously, I am a fan of positivity and believe a lot of results and opportunities come from the ability to look at the good in anything and keeping a "glass half full attitude". However, with that … (2 comments)
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Don't Bet Against the "House"!! - 06/29/11 01:02 PM
Don't bet against the house.
Funny saying, we all have heard it yet many of us are doing that exact thing right now and betting against the house?
First off there is no doubt the lack of underwriting standards, control, due diligence and greed played a pivotal role in the housing bubble (creation and implosion) but for those who bought pre 2003-2005 or post 2009-10 or later you are buying at true market or even deflated prices and will see gains on your investment.
But the investment is only part of this and the other factor not discussed much is the fact YOU … (2 comments)
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US Mortgage rates tied to Greece??? - 06/29/11 11:53 AM
US Mortgage Rates tied to Greece???
As odd as that sounds it is exactly whats been the MAJOR player, concern, in the market for the last several days. All eyes have been focused on Greece.
Will they pass the austerity vote will they default on their debt what is going to happen to the country and its finances and that of the euro? With so much swirling around its hard to believe that a country with a much smaller GDP than CA can play such a pivotal role but it has been.
I will get to todays news but more importantly want … (0 comments)
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Mortgage rates unsure what to do (as is the rest of the market) - 06/28/11 12:06 PM
Mortgage rates unsure what to do (as is the rest of the market)
Good morning AR members and readers, today I am going to go into a small explanation of why the market is behaving this way (backwards).
First let me start of with the data so you can follow a little better.
Here is the news that is driving the markets this morning...
OK here is the rest of the story. The market has been showing very strong resistance when trying to break over the 101.5 level on the FNMA 4.0 coupon. Correspondingly it has also shown resistance, albeit … (3 comments)
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Mortgage rates settling in for now - 06/27/11 11:59 AM
Mortgage rates settling in for now.
Well now is a long time, especially in the world of interest rates, lol.
The markets dont have much news release for today, the little is listed below, so today's picture should be overall quiet with a typical tendency towards caution (very slight deterioration).
Personal Income: Actual 0.3%, prior 0.4% (consensus 0.3%) Personal Spending: Actual 0.0%, prior 0.4% (consensus 0.1%) PCE Prices - Core: Actual 0.3% prior 0.2% (consensus 0.2%) You would thinkthat the personal spending going to 0 would be good but in the world of finance and economics its bad on the economy to not … (0 comments)
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Subprime... the Good, Bad the Ugly?? - 06/25/11 01:44 PM
Subprime... the good, bad and the ugly??
I have to say this post is truly written as a direct result from my reading a post titled "Subprime Mortgages are Back".
I read it, agreed with most of it but the comments are what juiced me to write this. (and as a disclaimer: I am not aware of any Subprime loans originated or pools of debt created by Trump or his organization. His name is synonymous with success, some also associate with greed, but is an entrepreneur and I used this picture solely for display but in no means to disparage … (0 comments)
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Active Rain.. who'd a thought we'd like the rain???? - 06/24/11 12:22 PM
Active Rain... go figure, actually liking being stuck in the rain everyday, huh.
As I write this I reflect on my time I lived in the Midwest (sorry to all AR members and readers who live there) and couldn't take/stand the weather. ALWAYS raining, always overcast, humid and overall NO FUN. I saw the "little yellow ball in the sky" aka the sun (maybe 3-5 times /mo). So I move to Denver Colorado (LOVE IT) that crazy yellow ball is out almost every single day. Great place to live, lots of outdoor activities, great people, SUNSHINE and lots of it.......
and then I find the … (3 comments)
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Mortgage Rates poised to hold today - 06/24/11 11:15 AM
Mortgage Rates were expected to see another strong rally to lower but after better than expected Durable Orders numbers and slightly better than estimate GDP bonds likely to be stuck close to current levels today.
Good morning AR members and readers.
Here are the actual results of those two items
GDP - Third Estimate: Actual 1.9% , prior 1.8% (consensus 1.8%) GDP Deflator - Third Estimate: Actual 2.0%, prior 1.9% (consensus 1.9%) Durable Orders: Actual 1.9%, prior -3.6% (consensus 1.5%) Durable Orders- ex Transportation: Actual 1.6%, prior 1.5% (consensus 0.7%) What does this mean for rates?
The consensus opinion was that with "at … (0 comments)
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Are you in a Groove or in a Rut? - 06/23/11 03:42 PM
Are you in a groove... ... or in a rut?
Simple question, right? Maybe not.
So many times we have heard or said the phrase "cant see the forest for the trees" (or any similar style metaphor). The big question is we know the terminology and we use it to help others but what about when we need to hear it ourselves?
Here are some of the things I look for (and fall in, as you may be shocked to find out I have not achieved perfection yet) lol
Are you doing the same things but results are down have … (0 comments)
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Mortgage rates to lower - all we needed was a speech! - 06/23/11 12:19 PM
Mortgage rates to lower - all we needed was a speech!
Good morning AR readers and members it seems we FINALLY are getting some sense back into the market and technicals are being followed. However they are being followed properly not due to common sense but because of Bernanke's speech and that was the final push that gave solid footing on direction that must have apparently seemed vague before.
See all the positive things about our economy are listed (jk)
Basically the bullet points of his speech were.
end of QE2 no additional fed intervention economy is not where they hoped … (5 comments)
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Mortgage rates absolutely on the rise... but maybe not 6/22/11 - 06/22/11 12:28 PM
Mortgage rates absolutely on the rise... but maybe not.
Good morning AR readers and members, as you can tell I am either opinionated, cynical or simply like to have fun in this crazy industry and market we are in. Personally I think its a little of all three. Anyway to set the record straight NO there is no guarantee on direction of rates and markets I was being both cynical and having some fun.
Hooray tha markets are now predictable again lol
On a serious note: There is a nice rally going back on in bonds (as last week, a day or … (2 comments)
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Mortgage Rates Likely to ???? 6/21/11 - 06/21/11 12:29 PM
Mortgage Rates Likely to ????
Good morning AR members and readers,
it seems we are in a "potential" proverbial stuck in the mud and maybe even a little sinking mode for mortgage rates. I say this as we did not get the bond rally we should have, new home sales were absolutely terrible, about 6% off the last horrible report going down from 5.1M sales to 4.8M sales. Greece is still a forefront of eyes and ears to see how it plays out and we add in Thursday is another market mover "maybe" day with GDP and Durable orders.
So what … (0 comments)
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Who do you trust... and why! - 06/20/11 03:07 PM
Who do you trust... and why!
OK to set the tone of this I was reading some previous blogs by other AR members and it literally dawned on me, Who do you trust and why? Business is, no doubt, more difficult today than it has been in many, many years. So with that said I have a question for all the AR members and readers in the realty side of our industry.
Who do you trust and why?
Seems like a fairly simple question and one that likely doesn't come up often, if ever, but can carry some extreme consequences if … (0 comments)
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Mortgage Rates may be edging higher 6/20/11 - 06/20/11 12:26 PM
Mortgage rates may be edging higher 6/20/11
While there is no scheduled news for today we do have the never ending saga of Greece playing a pivotal role in the rate and MBS market. So far the day has brought us a range from an open +9bps to a soon thereafter reversal to -19bps for the FNMA 4.0 coupon.
We are currently sitting at 100.656 level (FNMA 4.0) if we break through this on the bottom side could easily see an other 30-40bps lost. The 10Y treasury is currently up from 2.89% to 2.93%
The sad part of this is Greece … (0 comments)
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Happy Fathers Day - Dads - 06/18/11 05:17 PM
I just wanted to fire out a little Fathers Day cheer to all the AR community.
Have a great Fathers Day (dont forget to call your dad tomorrow) enjoy your kids (if you got em) and enjoy all the good things in your life. Remember its attitude and perception (glass is either half full or half empty) so even if things are tough look at the good you do have and change your mood and view...
Remember its not about what you dont have, its about what you do have that counts!!
Peace and blessings to all and...
HAPPY … (4 comments)
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Why am I here? What am I doing?? - 06/17/11 12:58 PM
Why am I here? What am I doing??
Do you ever stop to wonder or ask yourself these questions?
I know I have many times. The day to day frustration, the difficulties and trials of life, compounded by our "industry of choice" and the endless regulation and legislation to give us all ulcers over compliance and keeping current with it all. Not to mention we still need to make a living and provide for our families.
So why am I here and what am I doing. Well I think as you read this it will make more sense. I am now … (5 comments)
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Mortgage Rates ready for Rally... maybe 6/17/11 - 06/17/11 11:50 AM
Mortgage Rates Ready for Rally... maybe 6/17/11
OK a tiny bit of sarcasm in there but its also accurate. This week was a heavy news week. Lots of market driving reports and all have now come out and overall been negative towards recovery and positive towards moving the bonds lower (lower rates). Today brings us the final chapter in this critical week and here are this weeks last reports...
Michigan Sentiment: Actual 71.8, prior 74.3 (consensus 73.5) Leading Indicators: Actual 0.8%, prior -0.3% (prior 0.4%) So what does this last piece mean?
Good questions here is what it should mean. Michigan … (2 comments)
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Mortgage Rates to Rally? - 06/16/11 11:58 AM
Mortgage Rates likely to Rally 6/16/11
Good morning AR members and readers. Today looks to provide more of yesterday for bonds and rates to improve. The two biggest drivers of today are jobless claims and Philly Fed. Add to that housing starts still lagging greatly and we do not see any pretty picture for some time.
Here are the actual numbers for these...
Initial Claims: Actual 414K prior 427K (consensus 421K) Continuing Claims: Actual 3675K, prior 3676K (consensus 3690K) Housing Starts: Actual 560K, prior 523K, consensus 540K Building Permits: Actual 612K, prior 551K (consensus 548K) Current Account Balance: Actual -$119.3B, prior -$113.3B, … (0 comments)
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Mortgage Rates awake... a day late from yesterdays news - 06/15/11 01:05 PM
Mortgage rates awake a day late from yesterdays news
Good Morning AR members and readers. Here is the info that is driving today's market, well not actually some of what is driving the market came out yesterday but I guess it took a while for the "ones in control" to understand it, lol.
MBA Mortgage Index: Actual 13.0%, prior -0.4% CPI: Actual 0.2% , prior 0.4% (consensus 0.1%) Core CPI: 0.3%, prior 0.2% (consensus 0.1%) Empire Manufacturing: Actual -7.79, prior 11.9, (consensus 10.0) Industrial Production: Actual 0.1%, prior 0.0%, (consensus 0.2%) Capacity Utilization: Actual 76.7%, prior 76.9% (consensus 77.0%) NAHB Housing … (2 comments)
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Fed Chairman Bernanke States the Obvious... Nice! - 06/14/11 03:57 PM
Fed Chairman Bernanke states the obvious, nice!
Excerpts from Chairman Bernanke:
"Failing to raise the debt ceiling in a timely way would be self-defeating if the objective is to chart a course toward a better fiscal situation for our nation." "History makes clear that failure to put our fiscal house in order will erode the vitality of our economy, reduce the standard of living in the United States, and increase the risk of economic and financial instability." Interesting comment as our goal is to chart a course towards a better fiscal situation than now, correct?
We have somehow "lost" over … (2 comments)
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Mortgage Rates react opposite to news 6/14/11 - 06/14/11 12:51 PM
Mortgage Rates react opposite to news 6/14/11
Wow, is about all I can say. We see the following reports released and get the exact opposite from the results? Here is what I mean. Today's driving data release were the Retail Sales (which was down) Producer Price index (PPI) (which was down) and Business Inventories (which was down).
The actual numbers are..
Retail Sales: Actual -0.2%, prior 0.5% (consensus -0.7%) Retail Sales ex-auto: Actual 0.3%, prior 0.6% (consensus 0.2%) PPI: Actual 0.2%, prior 0.8% (consensus 0.1%) Core PPI: Actual 0.2%, prior 0.3% (consensus 0.2% same as actual) Business Inventories: Actual 0.8%, prior … (2 comments)
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QRM is Dead! - 06/13/11 01:12 PM
OK I don't know what your take or position was on this but I was calling for this to never even implement about 2 months ago. When all the naysayers gave me push back, I was happy to see this hit the wire late on Friday, so I figured I'd share it and toot my horn on the 60 day previous call. I know its still TBD but I think its dead anyway enjoy the read and its good news for the industry...
I had an interesting conversation on Friday with one key industry player in the risk retention debate. Without giving away … (0 comments)
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Volatile week ahead for Mortgage Rates? - 06/13/11 12:18 PM
Good morning AR members and readers
This week is PACKED with market driving news releases and should prove to be significant in making a larger move than typical, in both good or bad direction, depending on the data.
The releases for this week are as follows...
CPI Retail sales PPI Business Inventories NAHB Housing Empire Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Building Permits Philly Fed Michigan Sentiment Probably the biggest 3 divers in this group are the CPI, PPI and Retail sales numbers BUT lets face it we are in strange waters right now and there is a lot of emotion and fear still … (0 comments)
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Shouldnt this data scream for attention? - 06/10/11 03:44 PM
Barney Frank and Chris Dodd, Shouldn't this data scream for attention?
How does a government loan program outperform conventional prime mortgages, even when it offers no-down payment loans to 90% of its borrowers?
First, it only goes to veterans and the men and women of the U.S. armed forces. Second, the VA loan guarantee program has experienced a surge in origination's since subprime lending went the way of the dodo bird. Third, the Department of Veterans Affairs developed an automated servicing system that allows its staff to monitor the performance of individual loans, ensuring that private servicers are taking the proper steps to … (3 comments)
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Who's Who... who am I? - 06/10/11 01:04 PM
Who's Who... do you remember this company?
We may have seen this years ago. A company whose sole purpose was to get new businesses to pay them a flat fee to publish their name in a book, never read, and to send them an "official" looking document stating... xxx (your name or business) is a who's who in Denver CO, or any city and state, claiming you or your business as the... next up and comer.
Well as I write this in remembrance of this company, I also think... was this company created for revenue generation only or did it go deeper?
OK you might ask … (8 comments)
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Mortgage Rates... Calm before the storm - 06/10/11 11:39 AM
Good morning AR members and readers...
This week appears to have shaped up, especially last couple days, to be the storm, before the calm, before the storm.
We have had some serious movement, over the last 2 days, on very weak driving data (that's the storm round I). An overheated equities market showing a large 150(ish) point retracement from its folly or exuberance and unfounded gains yesterday and the 10Y yield is back down to the 2.95% mark again.
What does all this mean?
Likely today, and even Monday, could be the calming of the overreacted movements in the markets that caused some who … (0 comments)
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Market News and Rates for 6/9/11 - 06/09/11 03:00 PM
Today has been a big series of overreactions to basically non market driving news.
The huge hits the bonds have taken today are from trade balance, seriously?
While I am happy to see the trade balance improving slightly there is no way enough improvement nor in this single factor alone to warrant a -55bps sell off. Wholesale inventories dropped and the stock market improves and bonds take a hit???
I fear we are trending back to our illogical trading patterns of late 2010 and early 2011.
I hope this is not the case but looking closer the FNMA 4.0 coupon open with … (0 comments)
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Late Day Mortgage Market Report 6/8/11 - 06/08/11 06:56 PM
Good afternoon AR readers and members.Had an incredibly busy day today, so sorry for the very late market report.
As you may or may not be aware both of todays driving market movers 10Y auction and the Fed Beige Book report were released and those number helped draw money back into the security of the MBS market.
Fed Beige book showed some growth for manufacturing in many of the 12 districts but not all of them.
Overall not as solid a growth chart as hoped for and strong bids in the 10Y auction both factored in to help drive the 10Y yiled … (0 comments)
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Mortgage Market update report 6/7/11 - 06/07/11 04:58 PM
Mortgage Market Report *Update* 6/7/11As promised, here is the update on the driving factors in today's news...
Today brought about the expected results (which lately should have, and what, happened don't always line up) from both the fed 3yr treasury auction as well as the overall picture of the economy via the fed beige book report.
Bid to cover ratio's were strong on the 3yr treasury today and the fed policy from the beige book report shows an economy that is still in stable/fragile territory. The ability to handle increase in rates would likely put a severe blow to an ailing housing and … (0 comments)
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Strange?? (doesnt mean bad or avoid) - 06/07/11 02:26 PM
Strange doesn't mean bad, does it?
How many times have we run across something that is just strange looking "not normal", even though almost nothing in our industry is normal nowadays?
I see new agents and new loan officers run from these scenario's and also I see others that take a different approach... (ignorance is bliss perhaps or just a willingness to try).
By not prejudging, maybe its fear of getting ripped by the boss, maybe its fear of the unknown or maybe its just I am not busy right now so anythings possible and every contact could turn into be … (1 comments)
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Mortgage rates and news 6/7/11 - 06/07/11 01:20 PM
Good morning AR readers and members...
Here are the factors driving, or stalling as is the case right now, the mortgage rates today 6/7/11.
Today we have two critical items the 3y Treasury auction and the Fed Beige Book report.
Depending on the reports we could see a fairly large swing in either direction. For locking today (personally) I would lock as there is more downside risk than upside reward but that my opinion. We could easily see a nice jump up (lower rates) if the auction goes well and the Beige Book report is negative (which it could easily be) but whenever … (1 comments)
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Chasing Rainbows - 06/06/11 12:22 PM
Chasing Rainbows... (even the rare double one's)
We have all heard this expression in business, or many have anyway, and its commonly used to describe your wasting your time. (chasing rainbows, looking for the Pot o Gold, going after the hard or near impossible deal or client)
So living here in sunny and gorgeous Denver Colorado, it has come to be our season of crazy afternoon weather and this typically brings us a lot of rainbows. On one hand its absolutely gorgeous and biblically its mentioned that rainbows are Gods promise to never again flood the earth. So why is it … (1 comments)
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Mortgage Rates cautious ahead of Beige Books report - 06/06/11 11:05 AM
Mortgage rates are cautious ahead of the Fed Beige Books report wed afternoon.
The 10Y is off slightly with Yield now back over 3%, currently sitting at 3.02%The FNMA 4.0 coupon opened with a gap down loss of -15bps and has since peeled off an additional -9bps as the market waits to see what the beige book is going to say about the economy.
I expect today to likely remain close to its current levels, the opening losses, and we should see some retracement tomorrow afternoon (provided nothing unexpected is in the report).
Trading range on the FNMA 4.0 should stay between 100.75 - 101.00 (currently … (0 comments)
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ahh weekends - 06/04/11 10:07 PM
The only thing better than the weekend is having a beautiful day hope you enjoy the pic from Garden of the Gods in Colorado
… (5 comments)
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Here today... GONE tomorrow! - 06/03/11 06:16 PM
We all know this but sometimes it gets lost in the shuffle...
The saying "here today but gone tomorrow" loses its reality punch, if not used and used properly.
Lets face it, we get bad news (especially lately) from the media and have to deal with it and the problems it causes. We also have to overcome a lot of questions like...
is this the right time to buy? I heard the market is going to lose some more value I heard rates are going lower I heard ... (fill in the blank) While there is no one answer fits all, … (0 comments)
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Week ahead - what will be driving the markets - 06/03/11 05:41 PM
Good afternoon AR members and readers,
here is what will be driving the markets for next week...
Tues 6/7 3-yr Auction
Wed 6/8 Beige Book 10-yr Auction
Thur 6/9 Trade Balance 30-yr Auction
Fri 6/10 Import Prices
Should be interesting and we closed today just a fraction over as I called it at 101.06 for the FNMA 4.0.
That is a good sign and should bode well for the week ahead, barring any unexpected news.
Have a great weekend and MAKE IT HAPPEN!!!
David ShamanskyUS Mortgages720-524-8020
… (0 comments)
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Why Me!?!?! - 06/03/11 12:43 PM
Do you ever wake up or go through the day and it hits you, the infamous "why me" question?
It can be from...
remembering the good old days something that happened (good or bad) in the past and it becomes your focus today news from peers, clients or media or the good ol never ending fed legislation attacking our industry If so, then do yourself a HUGE favor and immediately STOP that stinkin thinkin!!!
It really doesn't matter what it is, if it is keeping your attention on the past or uncontrollable items today, your focus is on the wrong thing … (4 comments)
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Rates in a testing pattern today 6/3/11 - 06/03/11 11:41 AM
Rates are in a testing pattern today 6/3/11
With the employment numbers including non farm payroll coming in below expectations today it sparked a massive +47bps gap up opening. However our last 3 weeks of almost non stop increase to bonds and treasuries may be at a check point before we see further rise.
I say this as the bonds with no additional news to change took an almost immediate -22bps swing back down and yesterday closed about 25bps below the low mark I expected to see.
Does this mean the rally for bonds is over?
No, it simply is a … (0 comments)
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Mortgage Rates and Markets 6/2/11 - 06/02/11 12:28 PM
Mortgage Rates and Markets 6/2/11
Good morning AR readers and members.
The market opened up today with a slew of bad news. (should bolster lower rates)
here is what is driving the markets today...
Initial claims are down a touch but actually up almost 10K from the consensus number Continuing claims are up almost 25K from consensus Productivity is up .2% (not a good sign as that ties directly into why claims are higher productivity is going up meaning more is being done with less people) Labor costs down .2% from consensus number (meaning incomes are falling a touch) Factory orders … (0 comments)
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Where is the Mortgage Market Headed??? - 06/02/11 11:45 AM
Where is the mortgage market headed?
Good morning AR members and readers. I got asked a funny questions yesterday and it was "where is the mortgage and housing market headed"? My response was simple whatever direction you think it is.
Now I am not trying to be funny, insulting or simply too foolish to think one can simply "think" and it will happen. What I meant by that is your view and attitude is likely your direction and likely your result. There are a lot of outside factors such as demand, affordability and capability from buyers/homeowners but the truth is, it's … (2 comments)
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You gotta love the media! - 06/01/11 02:02 PM
You gotta love the media...
We have "almost" record low rates again nearing the 4% mark for 30yr fixed mortgages have housing ranging from 20-40% reductions from recent highs incomes varying from flat to slight increase and all over local and national news media last night is promoted...
the potential for a double dip recession another 10-20% potential in reduction to prices economic gloom and doom real buyers are deciding to NOT purchase and stay as renters? How is it that the media plays such a significant role in our economic recovery?Did last nights media barrage change any ones jobs or bills this … (0 comments)
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Mortgage Rates to Improve! 6/1/11 - 06/01/11 01:07 PM
Mortgage Rates to improve!Good morning to all and happy Wednesday.Overnight market was relatively quiet until this mornings release of ADP payroll report showed the increase was a dismal 38,000 in April. That pales in comparison with the expected increase of 170,000 private payrolls (which was actually reduced down from initial expected number of 177k). Bonds jumped as did the 10Y by a staggering number after this. This morning gave us a gap up open of +22bps and treasuries are at +22/32 putting yields below 3% on the 10Y for the first time in almost a year!Adding to this major shift is … (2 comments)
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