William's Blog

Market Update 10/14/2009

William Staney (W. J. Bradley Mortgage Capital Corp.) — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 14:12:29 -0500

MBS prices are down on the day (FNMA 4.50 -3/32), but off of session lows. The stock market is in rally mode (Dow +111.93, S&P +13.56). Earnings continue to be strong. Intel and JP Morgan both easily topped expectations. The dollar index is at a 12 month low. These are all going to be bond-negative as strong earnings and a stock market rally imply economic stabilization/health and a weak dollar suggests inflation concerns. Import prices posted a 0.6% increase, while export prices were flat. These had little impact in bond prices. Retail Sales came in better than expected (-1.5% vs. -2.1% est.), but looked to be influenced by auto sales. Retails Sales, excluding auto purchases, came in worse than expected (-0.5% vs. +0.2 est.). Business Inventories gave some support to bond prices as the print came in worse than expected (-1.50% vs. -1.0% est.). The minutes from the Sept. FOMC meeting will be released at noon MT. Watch for the contents to be dissected by the media for signs of change in FED policy, stance, or outlook. Again, talk of an improving economy and/or mention of tapering off of their open market accommodations may press rates higher. If they look to be leaning more towards extending these programs and/or they are seeing a tougher road ahead than previously expected, rates may stay in check.

Tomorrow, Thursday, 10/15 has Consumer Price data on tap. CPI (est. +0.2%) and Core CPI (est. +0.1%) will be released at 6:30am MT. It wouldn't be Thursday without the weekly Jobless Claims data (est. 525k). We will also see the NY Empire State Index and the Philly FED. Consumer Price data should be watched for signs of accelerating inflation. Inflation is a piece of the puzzle that has yet to rear its head. There are expectations worldwide that inflation will become a problem as we recover from our current down-turn. If/when these concerns become reality, bond prices are likely to suffer as inflation is a key driver when the FED decides to raise (or not to raise) interest rates. A higher than expected CPI print may push rates higher, while a lower print will likely keep rates in check. The Indexes out of PA and NY should be watched as well. These indexes track manufacturing, prices, and employment in their respective regions. Any strong increases here may put upward pressure on rates. As always, watch that Jobless Claims number. It tends to make the headlines and move markets regardless of its volatile tendencies.

Will Staney

Sr. Mortgage Banker

WJ Bradley Mortgage Capital

12444 Research Blvd. Ste. 103

Austin, TX 78759

(512) 377-1468 Office

(512) 644-1587 Cell

(866) 953-0155 Fax

Market Update 10/09/2009

William Staney (W. J. Bradley Mortgage Capital Corp.) — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 13:04:11 -0500

MBS prices are faltering this morning (FNMA 4.50 -22/32) on talk of possible rate hikes and reigning in some of the FED's accommodative programs. There is also a hangover from the poor 30 year auction seen yesterday. As we discussed, the 30 year Treasury auction was poor by recent standards. The market may also have been a little overbought these past few weeks. Some of the trade today looks to be corrective. The Trade Balance (or imbalance as it were) came in lower than expected at -$30.78 Bil. vs. a -$32.9 Bil. estimate. This is unlikely to have influenced today's' downward movement. Stocks are up (Dow +33.93, S&P +1.78) again and the dollar is strengthening, adding some fuel to the sell-off. Basically, all of the talk and market data today is bond-negative.

Next week brings far more data than we saw this week, even though data will only be released Wed-Fri. Wednesday has Import/Export Prices, Retail Sales, Business Inventories, and FOMC Minutes on tap. Thursday, is Initial Claims (as usual), Consumer Price data, and the Philly Fed Index. On Friday, we have Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production, and UofM Preliminary Consumer Sentiment. Pretty much any of these has the potential to move rates. We will discuss in more detail as the announcements approach. Also keep an eye on corporate earnings announcements. The perceived health of the US business environment will have an impact rates. As always, positive results may push rates lower, while poor earnings may keep rates in check.

Have a great weekend!

Will Staney

Sr. Mortgage Banker

WJ Bradley Mortgage Capital

12444 Research Blvd. Ste. 103

Austin, TX 78759

(512) 377-1468 Office

(512) 644-1587 Cell

(866) 953-0155 Fax

Market Update 10/08/2009

William Staney (W. J. Bradley Mortgage Capital Corp.) — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 12:47:17 -0500

MBS prices are up on the session (FNMA 4.50 +4/32), but currently trading sideways. Jobless Claims came in lower than expected (521k vs. 540 est.), although not by much. Wholesale Inventories were worse than expected (-1.3% vs. -1.0 est.). The stock market is in rally mode again today (Dow +100.13, S&P +12.01) on strong earnings, a weakening dollar, and not-so-bad Initial Claims. Yesterday's 10 year Treasury Auction was strong (3.01 bid-to-cover, 47.4% foreign bidder take), but today's 30 year showing was not so great (2.37 bid-to-cover, 34.5% foreign bidder take). So, we saw a weak rally surrounding the 10 year results, but there will likely be no follow-through on today's less-than-stellar 30 year offering. But, we will likely not see a near-term sell-off either.

Tomorrow, Friday, 10/9 has little data and auctions are over for the week. The lone data point tomorrow is the Trade Balance (est. -32.9 Bil.). The Trade Balance print measures the difference between US imports and exports of goods and services. Surprises here can influence estimates on GDP and other broad economic measures. Large disparities in the Trade Balance number may move rates. However, lately, no real rate movement has come following the Trade Balance print.

Earnings season has begun. If you recall from our discussion last season, earnings reports are a strong driver of market movement. With expectations beaten down in the midst of our worst recession in 75 years, eyes will be on these earnings reports for signs of improving business conditions. Also recall that headlines indicating that companies are "beating" earnings expectations may be misleading as we have to remember that many companies will intentionally look to lower earnings expectation, so they may ensure a "win". That's not to say that earnings releases should be ignored; they should just not be given too much weight. A win is a win, as they say, but keep it in the context of a weak market and weak expectations. In any case, a strong earnings season is likely to prolong the current bull market in stocks, thus putting upward pressure on rates. Weak earnings may keep rates in check, as the FED will be less likely to raise rates if business is slow and inflation is contained.

Will Staney

Sr. Mortgage Banker

WJ Bradley Mortgage Capital

12444 Research Blvd. Ste. 103

Austin, TX 78759

(512) 377-1468 Office

(512) 644-1587 Cell

(866) 953-0155 Fax

Market Update - 10/5/2009

William Staney (W. J. Bradley Mortgage Capital Corp.) — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 12:34:37 -0500

MBS prices are up a bit on the session (FNMA 4.50 +2/32), although are losing steam after a weak rally earlier today. The ISM Services Index came in slightly higher than expected (50.9 vs. 50.0 est.). This had little impact on the bond markets. The stock market is up (Dow +68.39, S&P +9.85) adding to downward pressure in MBS prices (rates up). No more data will be released today, but watch for the stock market and talk of the upcoming Treasury auctions to provide bias for bond traders.

Tomorrow, Tuesday, 10/6 is another dead day for data. No economic data will be released, but we have the 3yr Treasury note auction at 11am MT. This is the first of three note offering this week. As we know, these auctions will be seen as a barometer of foreign and domestic demand for US debt, and debt instruments in general. Watch for a bid-to-cover of 2.50+ and an indirect bidder participation of 50%+. Again, the bid-to-cover number is the ratio of orders placed to orders filled. It is a direct indication of demand for a given offering. The indirect bidder participation percentage is a reflection or foreign demand for the same offering. Typically, we see foreign buyers purchase at least half of any given note issue. Any perceived weakness in these numbers may spark a sell-off in bond markets (rates up), while another average or above average auction will likely keep bonds in check.

As always, keep an eye on the stock market. We had a sharp sell-off in the stock market last Thursday that seemed to contribute to the strong MBS pricing we saw late in the week (rates down). There still exists this feeling out there that a large scale stock market correction is looming. So, any time we see a 150pts+ sell off in the US stock market, we are likely to see a short-term rally in bonds (rates down). These stock market drops are more likely to move the bond markets that stock market rallies of the same magnitude. This may be due to the media/analyst consensus that we almost need to have a sharp correction in stocks before we see any further significant gains. So, any sign of a stock market stall will beget temporary buying of bonds as a safety play.

Will Staney

Sr. Mortgage Banker

WJ Bradley Mortgage Capital

12444 Research Blvd. Ste. 103

Austin, TX 78759

(512) 377-1468 Office

(512) 644-1587 Cell

(866) 953-0155 Fax

2009 Tax Credit Helps First-Time Buyers Become Home Owners

William Staney (W. J. Bradley Mortgage Capital Corp.) — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 12:02:04 -0500

Market Update 10/2/2009

William Staney (W. J. Bradley Mortgage Capital Corp.) — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 11:59:14 -0500

MBS prices are up slightly (FNMA 43.50 +2/32) after a sharp drive upward early in the session. The Nonfarm payroll print came in far worse than expected (-263k vs. -175k est.). This was likely the reason for the initial spike this morning. Factory Orders hit worse than expected as well (-0.8% vs. 0.0% est.). All of this should point to downward pressure on rates, yet we see the market having trouble holding a rally. It is possible that the "whispers" heard on the street yesterday calling for a far worse than expected jobs report may have contributed to yesterday's rally. So, today's poor employment report may have already been, at least partially, priced into the market; thus, the difficulty in finding upward momentum today. The Unemployment Rate came in as expected at 9.8%.

Next week is light on data, but we have Treasury Auctions on tap to ensure that things stay interesting. For data, we have ISM Services (est. 50.0) on Monday, Consumer Credit (est. -9.5 Bil.) and the Treasury Budget on Wednesday, Initial Claims and Wholesale Inventories (est. -1.0%) on Thursday, and the Trade Balance (est. -32.9 Bil.) on Friday. Of these, the ISM Services and the Initial Claims release will likely be the potential market movers. The real news will be the auctions. The US Treasury will auction another record offering consisting of $39 Bil of 3yr notes (Tues), $20 Bil in 10yr notes (Wed.) and $12 Bil. in 30yr notes (Thurs). Watch again for signs of change in the demand for this and other debt instruments. A perceived weakening of demand may push rates higher, while a solid performance may keep rates in check.

Have a great weekend!

Will Staney

Sr. Mortgage Banker

WJ Bradley Mortgage Capital

12444 Research Blvd. Ste. 103

Austin, TX 78759

(512) 377-1468 Office

(512) 644-1587 Cell

(866) 953-0155 Fax

Market Update - 10/1/2009

William Staney (W. J. Bradley Mortgage Capital Corp.) — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 14:10:42 -0500

MBS prices are on a steep climb today (FNMA 4.50 +11/32) after a boring day yesterday (FNMA 4.50 -1/32). The stock market is off quite a bit today (Dow -149.94, S&P -19.26). The major economic data released today was mostly negative, thus bond-positive. ISM missed quite a bit (52.6 vs. 54.0 est.) and Initial Claims print came in heavy (551k vs. 535k est.). However, some of the smaller data was mixed to positive. Personal Income beat slightly (0.2% vs. 0.1% est.), Construction Spending was up more than expected (0.8% vs. -0.2%), and Pending Home Sales rose 6.4% vs. a 1.0% estimate. As I write this, Ben Bernanke is testifying before the House on Financial Regulation. The bond markets seem pleased with his remarks. Watch for news on his testimony to hit news wires very shortly and for the contents to be reviewed closely for signals, hints, and hidden meaning.

Tomorrow, Friday, 10/2 has the Granddaddy of all economic data, the US Employment Report. Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to drop 180k jobs this time around. Consensus is on a 1/10th of a percent increase in the Unemployment rate to 9.8%, from the previous 9.7% reading. Watch for the headline numbers to stir conversation if they come in out of whack, but also look for the details of these reports to be run through the ringer. With eyes really focusing on employment as the last piece of the puzzle in our avoiding economic depression, every factor in the employment report will be watched for strength/weakness. Look for the data to be digested during the day and for details to potentially move markets.

Will Staney

Sr. Mortgage Banker

WJ Bradley Mortgage Capital

12444 Research Blvd. Ste. 103

Austin, TX 78759

(512) 377-1468 Office

(512) 644-1587 Cell

(866) 953-0155 Fax

The Welfare Mentality of the First Time Homebuyer's Tax Credit

William Staney (W. J. Bradley Mortgage Capital Corp.) — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 14:53:32 -0500

Via Jeff Belonger -- The FHA Expert.com -- FHA Loans -- FHA mortgages - USDA loans (Infinity Home Mortgage Company, Inc):

There has been a lot of buzz about extending the First Time Homebuyers Tax Credit. Why? For two reasons...

Because the $8,000 Tax Credit expires on November 30th, 2009.

And because many have stated that these tax credits have stimulated the housing market and our economy.

We have heard mention of recession, great depression, inflation, economic default, hard times, etc, etc. Has the First Time Homebuyers Tax Credit helped the economy and the housing market? Yes, in some cases. But people, it's another gov't band aide.

In regards to the tax credit, many have argued that it has gotten them more clients that would have never bought. My thought? Home buying can be an emotional process. It can also lead to misinformation on why one might buy. I am a frim believer that people will buy anyhow. Did it get some off the fence? Sure it did. Keep in mind, many real estate markets are different from each other.

But let me pose a question to everyone out there. Where do you think this money is coming from? Who do you think will be paying for this? Is our society a welfare mentality, just printing money that we don't have? Should we run our Country like a business or as a soup kitchen? Brian Brady added to my thought process with this eye opening post. Suspend the practice of flesh devouring : let the tax credit expire.

You can’t have your CAKE and EAT it too..

What inspired me to write this post, was after reading the comments on Loreena Yeo's blog, Would Congress please extend the $8,000 tax credit.

People, let's be honest with ourselves. Are we also scared if the tax credit is not extended, that it could also hurt our commissions? Just think about this. But what caught my attention were many of the comments on Loreena's post that said, "Please extend the tax credit", yet most of them didn't state why. And if they did, they said because it's helping the housing market. Based on whose facts? Yes, this can be debated.

But what about this... many of these same realtors wanting to extend the tax credit, were the same ones that said one of two things...

1. You should have skin in the game (by Lenn Harley) or

2. knocked the seller funded downpayment program, such as Nehemiah or AmeriDream

Shouldn't these same arguments be applied to the tax credit then, for those that are able to use the tax credit at closing? Let me explain further....

So how do we get out of this mess and and have an Economic Recovery, which the real estate market is a big part of.

How about starting with unemployment. Loreena argued that buying houses creates 100's of jobs, specific products would be bought. I agree and disagree. Because you will also lose jobs in the process.

But let me get to my point. Shouldn't we find ways to a recovery that wouldn't cost the tax payers money? I also read in many of the comments that the tax credit helps increase multiple offers in many areas, driving up the price of the home. Will many of you agree with this?

So prices have increased. Is this a ghost price? A real price? An inflationary price? If we accept this, why not bring back the seller funded down payment programs then? Known as the DPA programs.

Conclusion : The argument on Capital Hill and amongst many realtors and loan officers has been that you need skin in the game. And then the next wave would argue against the DPA program, because it could inflate the price of the home. But we have established that the tax credit does the same. But wait, it is costing us tax payers money for the tax credit, yet the DPA program doesn't cost the tax payer any monies.

Overall, aren't we a powerful country? With some of the smartest individuals, yet we are way in over our heads. What happened to common sense? Are we just mere puppets of a gov't that says they know best for us? Is our society a welfare mentality, just printing money that we don't have? I thought I found some common sense solutions that I wrote about in June 2009. Call to Action - We must fix the real estate market ourselves. Keeping in mind, that all of this is of my opinion, but with careful thinking and not of that of my pockets.

For other view points on this topic, please read :

The Press is On : By Lane Bailey - I think this is a very good read and we should pay attention to this. He talks about stopping the tax credit.

Would Congress please extend the $8,000 tax credit - By Loreena Yeo - Even though I am opposite of Loreena, read the comments. One needs to understand Economics, supply & demand, but also that hand outs have crippled us in the past.

Suspend the practice of flesh devouring : Let the first time homebuyer tax credit expire. By Brian Brady - A great twist and creative view point of our children's future.

We are going 35 mph, and about to hit the wall. - By Alan May - His complaint is that many people are rushing to take advantage of the tax credit. And that lenders with their delays will hurt buyers chances. Hey, I love helping first time homebuyers, but the tax credit has been around since 2008. If buyers waited last minute, do we keep extending, yet costing us millions of dollars in the future. What about inflation? Inflation vs deflation - Is it criminal?

Why devouring flesh is morally wrong. By Brian Brady - Brian extended his argument and included a great video. Maybe this will open some eyes?

Are first time hombuyer mortgage programs ending soon? - By Steve Kappre - Steve talks about how some states were able to get you the $8,000 tax credit at closing. But keep this in mind, less than 50% of all states has this type of program.

Extending the First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit Now?.... What's the rush? - By Lenn Harely -
I think this is an excellent article, because it's shorter than mine and too the point. Yet it brings up some easy to understand issues.

Call to Action - We must fix the real estate market ourselves. - By Jeff Belonger - I wrote this a few months ago. I think some of the solutions mentioned by myself and in the comments, seem to be common sense, and in many cases, not cost the tax payers money.

For god's sake, let's move on - By Paul Henderson - Paul offers a few more opinions...

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_________________________________________________________________________________________

For more information on FHA loans, please go to this link. The FHA Expert

For more information about the 2009 Tax Credit for First Time Homebuyers : 2009 Tax Credit

For important mortgage insight to watch for, please read : Consumers need to be aware of these Red Flags !!!!

Copyright © 2009 by Jeff Belonger of Infinity Home Mortgage Company, Inc

NHLA Regulatory Alert

William Staney (W. J. Bradley Mortgage Capital Corp.) — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 18:35:47 -0500

This is huge! Please share with anyone in the Mortgage Industry.

Via National Home Loan Advocates:

Regulatory Alert R-1366

As you have probably heard by now, the Federal Reserve Board has issued two proposed rules making significant changes to Regulation Z (Truth in Lending). This stems from proposals in H.R. 1728 - the Mortgage Reform and Anti-Predatory Lending Act - which passed the house on May 7, 2009.

Essentially, the new amendments are positioned to provide new consumer protections for all home-secured credit... which by intent proposes many good things. But, as happens most of the time, this proposal has very dangerous components tucked within it.

One proposal that is embedded, which is written in an ambiguous way, would essentially wipeout the current compensation structure to loan officers... retail, correspondent, and broker. The FRB proposal would require mortgage lenders to pay originators - again, retail, correspondent, and brokers - a flat fee, which would be stated and disclosed upfront, and would not increase based on changes in the interest rate or other loan terms. This all sounds fair, but make no mistake, the target is on YSP, SRP, and compensation paid to all mortgage originators... with a goal of regulating and restricting them. In fact, in HR 1728 the term "banned" was used relative to YSP and SRP.

For all mortgage transactions the proposal would:

Prohibit payments to a mortgage broker or the creditor's loan officer based on the loan's interest rate or other terms.

Prohibit a mortgage broker or loan officer from "steering" consumers to a lender offering less favorable terms in order to increase the broker's or loan officer's compensation.

When you read this it sounds fair - especially to a consumer, but imagine the unintended consequences of eliminating the ability to structure financing options for a consumer based on their specific needs. Should you also make the same "flat fee" for a $100,000 loan as you would on a $1.3 million loan? And, as you know, the industry has self-regulated the "excessive" YSP and SRP abuses that were so prevalent in retail and third-party originations.

Please review these links and submit comments as you see fit. After going to this link, scroll down to proposal R-1366 to review the proposal and submit your comments.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/generalinfo/foia/proposedregs.cfm

Additionally, if you are a business owner, you can contact the SBA Advocacy group with your concerns and coments- they are very interested to support you as well.

http://www.sba.gov/advo/laws/law_regalerts.html

You may also want to email your Senator to articulate your position and concerns.

http://www.senate.gov/general/contact_information/senators_cfm.cfm

We have a link to a document that highlights all of the proposed rule changes for you to review. We have also attached a link to HR 1728 which will give you a greater sense of the big picture- too lengthy to highlight in this email. It is riddled with dangerous proposals to the housing industry.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/bcreg20090723a1.pdf

http://www.house.gov/apps/list/press/financialsvcs_dem/summary_of_hr_1728_--_03_26_09.pdf

We believe that the industry has self-regulated this topic effectively and while we should always be looking for ways to enhance consumer protection from unfair lending practices, we are of the opinion that there is a need for more debate and vetting of these proposals to ensure we get it right. Unfortunately there is a lot on the agenda on K Street and this could easily pass without a visible position from the industry.

We also believe that legislators are targeting things that were merely functions of the real problems that caused over-speculation in housing credit. Loose underwriting standards that were coupled with unregulated leverage (remember the Bear Stearns subprime fund that used 80:1 leverage?) created by Wall Street are more appropriate targets for regulation, certainly not compensation of a loan officer. There has also been an overly intense focus on any third-party originators- broker or correspondent- who were, at the end of the day, simply offering products and YSP structures allowed by the primary lenders / banks.

Too many times, we hear about these changes after they are accepted. This is your opportunity to voice your comments and opinion. This opportunity to make public comment ends on November 27, 2009!

Share It! Sign-up a co-worker or friend for a 14-day free trial:
www.NationalHomeLoanAdvocates.com/RateAlertService

Joshua Campbell

VP, Lender Relations

National Home Loan Advocates

Cell 972.904.3694

Fax 866.472.2891

josh.campbell@nationalhomeloanadvocates.com

www.nationalhomeloanadvocates.com

"Working for you and in your best interest"^TM

$8k Tax Credit at a Glance

William Staney (W. J. Bradley Mortgage Capital Corp.) — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 12:33:07 -0500

$8,000 Home Buyer Tax Credit at a Glance

The tax credit is for first-time home buyers only. For the tax credit program, the IRS defines a first-time home buyer as someone who has not owned a principal residence during the three-year period prior to the purchase.
The tax credit does not have to be repaid.
The tax credit is equal to 10 percent of the home’s purchase price up to a maximum of $8,000.
The credit is available for homes purchased on or after January 1, 2009 and before December 1, 2009.
Single taxpayers with incomes up to $75,000 and married couples with incomes up to $150,000 qualify for the full tax credit.

Video answering frequently asked Questions on First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit:

***$8k TAX CREDIT EXPIRING NOV 30th*** If you plan to take advantage you MUST find a home and submit your loan documents by OCTOBER 20th....THAT IS LESS THAN A MONTH AWAY!!! Contact me now to get a pre-qualification for a home loan and take advantage of this program before it expires! There has been no signs that the program will be extended. Ignore the rumors...holding out with the hopes the program will be extended is taking a HUGE chance of throwing away $8,000 dollars of free government money!

Will Staney

Sr. Mortgage Banker

WJ Bradley Mortgage Capital

12444 Research Blvd. Ste. 103

Austin, TX 78759

(512) 377-1468 Office

(512) 644-1587 Cell

(866) 953-0155 Fax

Weekly Economic Round-Up 9-22-09

William Staney (W. J. Bradley Mortgage Capital Corp.) — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 11:24:01 -0500

In the News

Building permits for privately owned housing units reached a seasonally adjusted rate of 579,000 for August, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. August’s rate was 2.7 percent above the revised July rate of 564,000, but 32.4 percent below the August 2008 estimate of 857,000. Permits for single-family homes during August were at a rate of 462,000, which was 0.2 percent below July’s figure of 463,000.

Housing starts for privately owned homes during August hit a seasonally adjusted rate of 598,000, 1.5 percent over July’s revised estimate of 589,000, but still 29.6 percent below August 2008’s rate of 849,000. In line with the bureau’s permit data, starts for single-family homes in August were at a rate of 479,000, which was a solid three percent below July’s revised rate of 494,000.

The consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Bureau reported the 0.4 jump was driven by a 9.1 percent rise in its gasoline index, which accounted for nearly the entire advance in the energy index, and more than 80 percent of the overall increase for consumers. Despite August's rise, the CPI-U index has decreased 1.5 percent over the last 12 months, and the bureau's gasoline index has dropped 30 percent over the last 12 months.

Energy prices had a similar impact on producer prices. The producer price index for finished goods advanced 1.7 percent (seasonally adjusted) during August, according to the Bureau, which reported that more than 90 percent of the finished goods price jump was due to higher energy prices, which moved up 8 percent for producers.

While energy prices might have climbed, advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August (adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes) reached $351.4 billion, an increase of 2.7 over July, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The gain was chalked up in large part to the government’s Cash for Clunkers program, which gave auto sales an 11.9 percent jump over July, and gas stations, which came in with a 5.1 percent increase from July.

This week, watch the business headlines for news on leading economic indicators (Sept. 21) from The Conference Board; existing home sales (Sept. 24) from the National Association of REALTORS®; and new home sales (Sept. 25) and durable goods orders (Sept. 25) from the U.S. Census Bureau.

NAR makes call to action to extend the $8000 home buyer tax credit - good or bad?

William Staney (W. J. Bradley Mortgage Capital Corp.) — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 11:05:37 -0500

Via Rob Arnold, metro Orlando full service, investor friendly & foreclosure Realtor (Sand Dollar Realty Group, Inc.):

The National Association of Realtors issued a call to action today to contact your Senators and Congressmen about extending the deadline on the $8,000 home buyer tax credit. Click the link above and you can see NAR's video on this subject.

While I am glad that the tax credit has probably helped stimulate the real estate market and the economy some, I also wonder about the longer-term effects of this so-called "stimulus" money on this nation's deficit and national debt.

I would rather see the money in the hands of the people as opposed to Wall Street fat cats or failing banks though. However I also hear stories on the news and elsewhere of people using the $8,000 to pay for frivolous items. Kind of a windfall shopping spree. I also don't like mortgaging the future of this country by giving free money to people while increasing massive debt that may end up crushing our nation one day (if it hasn't already). Kind of "socialized" real estate buying if you can call it that. Take from my pocket and put it in yours.

I did some quick research in our Mid-Florida Regional MLS system which covers portions of some 14 counties surrounding Orlando and Tampa. Of 55,500 sales since 12/1/2008, some 23,594 (42.5%) sold for all cash. Which means some 31,906 (57.5%) sold for some type of financing terms. I am assuming that most of the cash buyers are investors who won't be getting the tax credit, while most of the financed buyers are owner occupants many of which will be getting the tax credit. I'm not sure exactly what these numbers mean though. However it does show that many people are buying regardless of whether they are getting the $8,000 tax credit. Personally I bought an investment property earlier this year and didn't get a government check out of it.

So what's your take on extending the tax credit? Is that a good thing? Or should the government simply butt out and stop meddling with the economy? I haven't made up my mind, but overall I tend to be against most government programs that involve spending my tax dollars on items that aren't prescribed specifically in the Constitution.
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Rob Arnold - Your full service and investor friendly Realtor ® in Orlando and Central Florida.

407-389-7318 / 1-877-389-7318 www.SDRhouses.com   www.WeBuyHousesFlorida.com

We sell foreclosure, short sale, and bank owned REO house home throughout Central Florida, metro Orlando, and the Space Coast. We sell and list Central Florida real estate and Orlando real estate. Free list of foreclosure and short sale houses available.  Our firm also provides flat fee MLS listings, For Sale By Owner, and menu-based services in most parts of Florida including Orlando, Altamonte Springs, Apopka, Kissimmee, Sanford, Lake Mary, and Deltona.

Market Update 9-11-2009

William Staney (W. J. Bradley Mortgage Capital Corp.) — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 11:19:47 -0500

MBS prices are up AGAIN today (FNMA 4.50 +7/32) in a seemingly never-ending rally. The auctions went very well this week, adding fuel to a rally. This rally has been supported by the fact that, despite encouraging economic news, market watchers are not convinced that a recovery is near, nor are they worried about inflation being a problem any time soon. Today's news too would look to be bond-negative, with Import prices up 0.4%, export prices up 0.8%, and Consumer Sentiment coming in higher than expected at 70.2 (est. was 69.0). Yet, we see a continued rally. While there is some FED manipulation of prices going on here, there is a clear market feeling that rates may go lower and may stay low for a while. However, we should not become complacent in this, as this market may turn, and may do so quickly. Keep in mind that we are still in low-volume trade, so moves can happen suddenly and a "pile-on" effect can cause moves to be severe.

Next week brings some Price, Sales, Production, Treasury, and Housing data, along with the weekly Jobless print. Producer Price info comes out Tuesday (PPI est. 0.8%, Core PPI est. 0.1%), as does Retail Sales (est. 1.6%). Wednesday has Consumer Price numbers (CPI est. 0.4%, Core CPI est. 0.1%) and Industrial Production (est. 0.7%) on tap. On Thursday, we have Housing Starts (est. 588k), Jobless Claims (est. 550k), the Philly Fed Index, and a Treasury Announcement. Nothing on Friday. As mentioned above, market watchers seem steadfast in their belief that the economy is still in retraction mode and that inflation is not something to worry about until at least the next decade. All of the above will together help prop up or push down the idea that the economy is seeing signs of recovery, and fuel or dispel the fears of inflation.

Have a great weekend!

Will Staney

Sr. Mortgage Banker

WJ Bradley Mortgage Capital

12444 Research Blvd. Ste. 103

Austin, TX 78759

(512) 377-1468 Office

(512) 644-1587 Cell

(866) 953-0155 Fax

Example of a Realtor Using Social Media

William Staney (W. J. Bradley Mortgage Capital Corp.) — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 14:31:28 -0500

I do a social media marketing class here in Austin, TX for Realtors and always love talking about and sharing great tools and tips for helping my referral partners grow and market their business through social media. This is a video I commonly show in my class. It is a great example of a Realtor using social media to market herself the right way. Just to give you an idea of your goals when building your social media marketing campaign. Hope this helps! Needing additional tips and tricks? Social Media site suggestions? Personal Marketing Consultation? Drop me a line or link to me on any of the sites in my signature below and I'd be glad to help.

*Will Staney is a Mortgage Banker in Austin, TX with half a decade of experience in Residential Mortgages as well as a degree in Mass Communications -Interactive Marketing/Advertising from Texas State University*

Will Staney

Sr. Mortgage Banker

WJ Bradley Mortgage Capital

12444 Research Blvd. Ste. 103

Austin, TX 78759

(512) 377-1468 Office

(512) 644-1587 Cell

(866) 953-0155 Fax

Will Staney's Facebook Business Page

Will Staney's Twitter

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Will Staney's Linkedin

Social Media Starter For Realtors

William Staney (W. J. Bradley Mortgage Capital Corp.) — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 12:25:59 -0500

With so much talk about social media and it's uses for business these days it's hard to know where to begin (if you happen to be thinking about beginning). And as it relates to real estate, how might you use Twitter, Facebook, blogging, etc., to enhance your own personal business strategy (and make money, too)? Well, to try and help you cut through all the chatter, and if you happen to be wondering about this, the following video (by Paul Montelongo) is a good, initial step in the right direction. And even if you don't do anything other than what happens to be this gentleman's third point to "research competitors," I think it'll be worth your while. So what are other realtors in the local area doing with social media to gain buyers and sellers and set themselves apart as the go-to professional? To find out just google a person's name and see what they have going online. You better believe that buyers and sellers are doing the same thing in their search for a realtor. And so if they google your name versus another's and they find that the other person has his listings not only on a website, but on Twitter and Facebook and LinkedIn and ActiveRain, who do you think they will choose as their representative? I know the measuring stick is much more complicated than that. I'm just trying to make a point. The video is definitely worth the time at just over six minutes.

posted by Mike C (aka blog boy)

The Loan That "Can't" Be Done, and How the Big Lenders Can Hurt You as a Buyer

William Staney (W. J. Bradley Mortgage Capital Corp.) — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 12:50:56 -0500

Via Steve Kappre, Gloucester County, NJ Loan Officer/Mortgage Planner - 856.419.3561 (Treasury Mortgage):

The Loan That "Can't" Be Done, and How the Big Lenders Can Hurt You as a Buyer

I've been working with a certain buyer (Mr. Buyer) for a few months now. Since he is looking at the low end of the market his home selection is very limited. We had to work on his credit profile, and we successfully got his credit scores boosted enough to get him approved in the automated system (DU).

So with all this excited Mr. Buyer goes out and finds a GREAT deal, a home that appears to be about $50,000 below market value, which in this case is like having a 33% price reduction. The MLS listing is misleading - it states that the property is corporate owned, when really it is a REO. (Realtor mentioned something saying she can't put "bank owned" anymore on her listings ... that's another topic) FRUSTRATING!!

The MLS also states that the buyer must be approved by"XYZ Big Bank" (Name kept secret since you may work there). We weren't sure if they had a special relationship with the "corporate" owner of the home. Typically we wouldn't care and would just tell someone to get pre-approved with the said lender and then we will write the loan for them. But this one is different, and I knew it before the buyer even talked to the "Big Bank" mortgage rep.

The mortgage rep from "Big Bank" stated that there was no way my buyer could get approved.

I BEG TO DIFFER!!

I told my buyer before he talked to the "Big Bank" mortgage rep that they would say this. We have him approved for a more specialized loan program called the Tax Credit Prefund Mortgage Program.

Big Lender = No Loan for You?

In the case of a big, nationally known lender, a buyer may have less home buying options. A big lender like this most likely will not have access to state/county/local programs. Score one for the local mortgage banks! Frankly the "Big Bank loan officer" should have said "I CAN NOT DO THIS", and not "There is no way a lender can do this!"

"SPEAK FOR YOURSELF" hot shot!

I founded a career on closing loans "Mr. Big Bank Loan Officer" said could never be done. I thought when Alt-A was out the window that specialized lending was be also. Man, was I wrong! - it is more important than ever!

You lose, I lose, We all Lose

So Mr. Buyer is rejected from buying a home because it is owned by a bank. Mr. Buyer's income docs have already been reviewed by an underwriter. We can even get a commitment for Mr. Buyer. But this STILL wouldn't mean anything to "Big Bank" since they themselves can not get Mr. Buyer approved. Everyone loses, and another home sits longer negatively affecting the local market. If this is the protocal for big banks and their REO inventory, there may be a lot of "shooting of the feet" yet to come.

Steve Kappre is a Mortgage Planner with Treasury Mortgage. Steve specializes in;

• All areas concerning First-Time Home Buyer Mortgages, grants, down payment assistance, police and fire loans, rehab loans, and more.

• Reverse Mortgages

• Equity Management strategies for high-end homes and high net worth individuals.

Contact Steve Kappre directly at 856-419-3561 or at www.stevekappre.com

Mortgage Market Update - 8-25-09

William Staney (W. J. Bradley Mortgage Capital Corp.) — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 11:59:01 -0500

MBS prices are down slightly (FNMA 4.50 -3/32) on limited market-moving data. Consumer Confidence came in at 54.1 vs. the street estimate of 48.0. While this is a high-side miss, the print has done little to influence markets. All eyes are on the $42 Bil. 2 year Treasury auction results to be announced at 11 am MT (1 pm ET). Again, a poor to average showing may push rates higher, while a strong showing may force buying (rates lower). A 'strong' showing will show a bid-to-cover better than 2.50 and an indirect participation (foreign buyer) percentage over 50%. Anything south of these numbers will likely put immediate upward pressure on rates.

Tomorrow, Wednesday, 8/26 brings Durable Orders (est. 3.2%), New Home Sales (est. 390k), and the 5 year Treasury auction. The Durable Goods number has the potential to move markets, as it is a fairly reliable leading indicator of demand and business investment. A down-side surprise here may spark a drop in rates, while a print far exceeding 3.2% may push the stock market and rates higher. New Home Sales also has the ability to push rates around. Most recent housing data has been relatively bright. If this number bucks this trend, down rates may go. If in-line, or worse than expected, we may see a pull-back in interest rates. As usual, the 2 year auction today will be watched closely, the 5 year tomorrow even more so, and the 7 year on Thursday will be the Treasury's curtain call for the week.

Will Staney

Sr. Mortgage Banker

WJ Bradley Mortgage Capital

12444 Research Blvd. Ste. 103

Austin, TX 78759

(512) 377-1468 Office

(512) 644-1587 Cell

(866) 953-0155 Fax

Mortgage Market Update

William Staney (W. J. Bradley Mortgage Capital Corp.) — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 12:53:33 -0500

MBS prices are up on the day (FNMA 4.50 +4/32), but well below this morning's highs of +14/32. No economic data has been or will be released, today. Thin trade and "safety" buying has been holding prices high despite some gains in the stock markets.

Tomorrow, Thursday, 8/20 brings weekly Jobless Claims Data (est. 550k), The Philadelphia FED Index (est. -2.0), and a Treasury Announcement. Market watchers will continue to track jobless data, looking for further signs that the job market is stabilizing. The Philly FED number offers color on manufacturing business activity in the PA, DE, NJ region. Manufacturing activity is typically a precursor to future economic conditions. This print is unlikely to move the market, but may if the number is far from the expected -2.0. The Treasury Announcement will be closely monitored, as it will likely show continued need for the Treasury to auction record amounts of debt to fuel ongoing economic rescue and bailout efforts. The markets expect huge auctions in the future, so there should be no surprises here, but watch for bond traders to remark on the detail contained in the announcement, set to post at 11am ET (9am MT).

Will Staney

Sr. Mortgage Banker

WJ Bradley Mortgage Capital

12444 Research Blvd. Ste. 103

Austin, TX 78759

(512) 377-1468 Office

(512) 644-1587 Cell

(866) 953-0155 Fax

Mortgage Market Update - 8/15/2009

William Staney (W. J. Bradley Mortgage Capital Corp.) — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 12:37:07 -0500

MBS prices are up this morning (FNMA 4.50 +8/32) after a lackluster showing yesterday (FNMA 4.50 -2/32). As expected, the FED left interest rates unchanged, and the text of their announcement offered little to no surprises. Demand in the 10 year Treasury Auction was ok, but not great, with a 2.49 bid-to-cover (anything above 2.00 is solid) and a 45.7% "indirect" bidder take (foreign investor take). the market looks to have overreacted a bit to the news and may be giving some of this ground back today. Also moving the bonds today are worse than expected economic data in Retail Sales (-0.1% vs. +0.7 expected) and Initial Jobless Claims (558k vs. 550k estimate). The Jobless number is very close to target, but the Retails Sales number may have caught some off-guard. All economic data has been released for the day, but watch for the record $15 Bil. 30 year Treasury auction to stir markets. Results are expected at 1pm ET (11am MT). If the last few auctions are any guide, anything short of a stellar performance will likely send rates higher.

Tomorrow, Friday, 8/14 brings some Consumer Price Data (CPI est. 0.0%, Core CPI est. 0.1%), Industrial Production (est. 0.4%), and Consumer Sentiment (est. 68.5); all are scheduled to be released on or before 8am MT (10am ET). CPI will be examined closely for the ugly head of inflation. An overly lofty CPI number could send rates higher, as inflation almost always comes along with an rising rate environment. A downside surprise may cause a dip in rates. Industrial Production will be watched for signs of improving economic conditions. As always, any good news here could be bad news for mortgage rates. The Consumer Sentiment Number is not a great indicator of economic activity, but can give some insight into the mind of the American Consumer. As we know, consumer spending makes up around 70% of all US economic activity. There should be little reaction to this print, but it should be watched for extreme variance from the target of 68.5.

Will Staney

Sr. Mortgage Banker

WJ Bradley Mortgage Capital

12444 Research Blvd. Ste. 103

Austin, TX 78759

(512) 377-1468 Office

(512) 644-1587 Cell

(866) 953-0155 Fax

Mortgage Market Update Aug. 7, 2009

William Staney (W. J. Bradley Mortgage Capital Corp.) — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 10:47:10 -0500

MBS prices are down sharply this morning (FNMA 4.50 -27/32) on a better than expected Unemployment Report. Non-Farm Payrolls came in at -247k vs. the consensus estimate of -325k and unemployment came in at 9.4% vs. the slightly higher 9.6% expected. All bond markets have responded negatively to this print, as funds are being pulled out of bonds and thrown into stocks. The market traded sideways for most of the day yesterday (FNMA 4.50 -4.32), as participants awaited today's employment numbers.

Next week brings many notable events and releases, which we will explore in more detail next week. The FED is meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, with a policy announcement on Wednesday, 8/12. The FED is expected to leave the funds rate unchanged, but look for text within the announcement to give clues as to the FED's leanings on the economy, rates, inflation, and their open market operations. With recent news leading some to believe that the economic tide is turning, look for the FED's take on this to move markets. Wholesale inventories will be released on Tues (est. -0.9%). The Trade Balance (est. -$28.5 Bil) and Treasury Budget (est. -129.5 Bil.) are set to roll Wed. Import/Export prices, Retail Sales (est. +0.3%), and Jobless Claims will be released on Thursday. Next week also brings several Treasury Auctions. Look for these to again be the center of attention as market watchers look for signs of weakening demand for US debt (rates up). 3yr Auction is Tues, 10yr's on Wed, and the longest term, 30yrs' go off on Thurs.

Will Staney

Sr. Mortgage Banker

WJ Bradley Mortgage Capital

12444 Research Blvd. Ste. 103

Austin, TX 78759

(512) 377-1468 Office

(512) 644-1587 Cell

(866) 953-0155 Fax

Mortgage Market Update 8/6/09

William Staney (W. J. Bradley Mortgage Capital Corp.) — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 11:54:46 -0500

MBS prices are volatile this morning (FNMA 4.50 +0/32), after posting a loss yesterday (FNMA 4.50 -15/32). The FNMA 4.50 has been off as much as -8/32 and up as much as +7/32 today; a wide swath indeed. Jobless Claims came in lower than expected at 550k, likely causing much of the down leg seen early this morning. The market looks to have recovered quickly and is now trading near unchanged. Yesterday's mid-day drop in prices coincided almost to the minute with an announcement from Taylor, Bean, and Whitaker stating that the mortgage lender would cease al lending activities. It is widely believed that the exit if TBW from mortgage lending may spark an interest rate increase as the market is reminded that lending is not yet as safe as it once was. This issue is certainly debatable, as it may prove to be false in the longer-term, but folks look to have traded on this assumption yesterday.

Tomorrow, Friday, 8/7 brings the ever-important Unemployment Report. Expectations are for a -325k Non-Farm payroll change and a 9.6% rate of unemployment. Non-farm payrolls measures the estimated change in the number of paid employees working in the private sector or for the government. A negative number indicates that jobs are being lost; a positive number means that we are creating jobs. Since late 2007, the US has been losing jobs monthly. This is expected to continue for some time, but the magnitude of these losses is watched closely. If we see a print that comes in far worse than -325k, we may see a spike in MBS (rates down), while a better print may hurt MBS prices (rates up). Similar goes for the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate is similar to the Non-Farm payroll number in that it measures the health of the job market, but it measures the percentage of the civilian labor force looking for employment, but unable to find work. This number too has been worsening since late 2007. This number can be slightly deceptive in that it can fluctuate seasonally, showing odd trends when looked at on a single-month basis, but overall it is the most highly publicized measure of unemployment. That being said, traders will look at the Non-Farm number first, but any surprise in the unemployment figure may move markets as well. This data comes out at 6:30 am MT (8:30 ET) tomorrow, prior to market open.

Will Staney

Sr. Mortgage Banker

WJ Bradley Mortgage Capital

12444 Research Blvd. Ste. 103

Austin, TX 78759

(512) 377-1468 Office

(512) 644-1587 Cell

(866) 953-0155 Fax