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What's Really Taking Place in Your Real Estate Market?

I know the press is quoting residential resales are up, but not in my market. Compared to last February they are way off here in Atlanta. Residential construction permits are up, but did you know it is for apartment dwellings? It seems like the press is trying to perk us up with half truths almost like the propaganda ministries of old. The fact is I see more homes under contract, but they do not close. Homes under contract seem to be coming back on the market on a regular basis. Either the financing rules have changed again, the home did not appraise, the buyer have lost their job, or the buyers are afraid of losing their jobs. What are you seeing in your market place? I am not buying into "Happy Days are Here Again" Bloggers that like stories with happy endings, but really don't sell real estate for a living. I sell real estate, but we are putting in increasingly more hours and higher stress levels to get the deals done. Then we need to pray that we can get them closed.

In Atlanta we have about 75,000 Active listings.
2400 +/- detached single family homes sold in February.
345 Town home and condos sales attached homes in February
10000 expired and withdrawn listings for the month
10000 new foreclosure filings for the month.
Average sales prices and sales have fallen to late 1990 levels.

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Posted by Jim Crawford ~ Atlanta Real Estate-ABR E-PRO on 03/27/2009 09:15 AM

Comments (31)

Real Estate Markets Poll - How Is Your Real Estate Market Doing? in the ActiveRain Channel

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Originally posted at: Atlanta Real Estate | Atlanta Housing News for Real Estate: What's Really Taking Place in Your Real Estate Market?

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31 Comments on What's Really Taking Place in Your Real Estate Market?

MAR

I think it good to be honest and realistic about local housing market trends. I like to always look for a silver lining to every gray cloud. While last months sales were down compared to the same time period from one year ago, the sales were up from the previous month. Which is not unusual, considering which months I am talking about. But I am also seeing much more activity than as far as showings as the same time period last year.

But you have really hit the nail on the head regarding getting a closing to actually happen. The value of a REALTOR is more important than ever to stay on top of things and work to get the home to close. Your statement about using the power of prayer has more meaning to it than many want to consider. The power of prayer & positive thinking cannot be underestimated.

I applaud your press for trying to paint a brighter (even if false) picture. We have the opposite problem here in CA. The lower end is moving, smart money is flooding back into the market and deals under $150k are seeing multiple offers. Yet does any of this make the news? No.

All we are bombarded with day after day are stories about foreclosures, how Joe & Jane Taxpayer are being forced out of their home and losing their American dream. They do not bother mentioning that these folks bought a $650k home on $50k/year salary with a stated income/stated asset loan.

The media is a powerful tool that can be used to help or hurt the economy. If the media says things are getting better and that improves local consumer confidence, things might actually get better. Likewise, if they stick with the doom and gloom nonsense that they have been ramming down our throats here in CA, they slow any recovery by inciting consumers to refrain from spending, which is a serious problem for a consumption based economy.

My advice? Put on a happy face, use the media's positive outlook to convince your buyers to get off the fence and buy, buy, buy. Good luck.

Jim - it's the same here. More houses under contract, not so many closing. To top it off, suddenly in the last two weeks it's been awfully quiet. Buyers have gone hiding. We talk to a lot of agents and everbody says the same thing - they don't have any buyers. There are so many obstacles right now and you are right stress level if of the roof. ~Rita

Jim I see a slight increase but that is coming from the bottom of the barrel and we are coming out of the worst season to sell a home in the Northeast.

Jim,

Great post!

10,000 foreclsoure filings vs. about 2700 sales is pretty bleak. The Atlanta market is not as cyclical as other areas. We don't tend to get the large roller coaster type swings that other areas of the country see.

I agree that many of the prices we are seeing are around the late 90's to maybe early 2000's level. Definitely makes rough for those with weak stomachs.

BTW. I have a referral looking in your area. I'm going to call you this afternoon.

I'm mad crazy busy BUT working 3x as hard for 1/2 the money, it seems. Hey, no complaining here - I will take it. I am running into multiple offers in some price points and in certain geographic areas where prices have come down dramatically or in other areas where someone lists a great house at the perfect price. We have no shortage of buyers for certain properties, in fact, we have a shortage of certain types of inventory. I saw a house recently that was Pottery Barn perfect, could have sold it half a dozen times if there were six of them on the market! Good price, good location, great little house. So I would say we have buyers, but we don't have buyers for EVERYTHING nor for every zip code. Then again, this is DC and it's a fairly unique market in many ways.

Hi Jim

Looks like Atlanta still has challenges, that will take a dedicated effort to work thou

Good luck and success

Lou Ludwig

Jim,

We're seeing bracks & hicks, but no signs of a real recovery...!!! Thanks, Fran

Jim, you are always so refreshing, with "just the facts." It is what we all need with no sugar coating. It is what is called "reality."

I attended a Board meeting last week and many agents were smiling with a spring in their step. It was nice to see the upbeat faces again. They were saying that they're busy and the phone is ringing. We also talked about the low inventories in certain popular areas. Nice homes are going quickly in those areas ... some with multiple offers.

Albeit some of that business is on the low end price range, we need 1st timers to buy so we can move the higher priced homes. Open houses have been well attended with REAL buyers. I close on a nice one next week where the buyer came to the open house.

We've had winter since Nov so we're getting people with a good case of cabin fever.

With all my research I always try and find the silver lining, but I must agree with you Jim. Claims that the housing market has turned and that all the problems are behind us are regrettably just not valid. I hope that we will see an increase in buyers during the Spring/Summer and I hope that Obama's initiatives will start taking effect sooner rather than later. Unfortunately the cut in the economy and house market is a deep wound and it will take multiple procedures/actions and more time to get it back to full strength. Persistence, resilience, innovation, patience and belief are all required.

Mark Brian (Silver Star Real Estate LLC) Amen!

Thomas Martin-BROKER, PROPERTY MANAGER Property Manager in Sacramento, Folsom (Investors Choice Property Management) Thank you for the upbeat perspective. Excellent view!

Kenna Real Estate ~ Denver Luxury Real Estate We are seeing some slight increases in activity, but I would not want to be a seller. The daels that are clsing are nothing to brag about. We recently talked to a would be seller, and advised they would have to bring about 35K to the table.

Bill Gassett Metrowest Massachusetts Real Estate (RE/MAX Executive Realty) The bottom end and I mean bottom end is showing some activity here. we get calls all day long for homes that are under 30K without plumbing, mechanics etc. The are over 40 miles away from my area. First time buyers are next and they do not have any cash. Their friends are telling them they can buy with no money down.

Bob Southard,e-Pro Powder Springs and Marietta Real Estate (Solid Source Realty) Thanks! The Atlanta area had way too much speculation and no mone down deals.

Susan Haughton Alexandria, VA REALTOR® (Long & Foster REALTORS® Old Town Alexandria) You made the right move to Virginia.

Lou Ludwig CRB, CRS, CIPS, GRI, SRES, TRC, e-PRO, (Ludwig & Associates) Lou the Atlanta market for the last decade was a major destination for a "Boomtown!" Today the numbers do not point to a boom. It points to a saturated housing inventory, declining sales, and rising unemployment. More supply and a lot less demand.

Fran 'The Title Man' Gaspari Title Insurance-PA & NJ (Patriot Land Transfer, Inc.) Fran, most of my friends in real estate are veterans. They are not seeing an increase in quality business. More activity does not mean the market is necessarily improving. Market health all depends on what is selling, and what is it selling for.

Gary Woltal - REALTOR® Dallas Ft. Worth (Keller Williams Realty) Gary tahnks! I have been working for the last year and a half on a better Internet presence. I have accomplished all of that, but the leads are the lowest quality I have ever seen. I am generating income and still on the positive side of the ledger. That is more than I can say for my friends.

Elaine Reese, REALTOR® in central Ohio (Real Living HER, Worthington Ohio) Cabin fever is a great motivator! :) It really does work.

Stefan Swanepoel (Trends Expert, Author & Speaker) Stefan, thank you for such a great reply. I really value your opinion. The interesting thing is that rising unemployment, Alt-A resets, Commercial loans, and credit card issues lie ahead. They dwarf the sub-prime issues we have all been dealing with for the last year or so. What bothers me more that nothing the government has done, has increased an interest in real estate. the 8K credit is good, but right now a home value could drop more than that a month. I am constantly scouring the news to find solid signs of real gain...but it has to be a real trend, not a blip or an aboration on the charts. I've not foudn any ecept increse of forclosure sales, and first time buyers. From what I can see...even the investors have stepped back from the plate.

Jim...thanks for keeping us all in check! While I agree that we should not sugarcoat things, I'd rather they report ANY positive news and try and give everyone hope that there is an end to the tunnel and we will see the light!

I've got Sellers that are riding me, and I tell them it's all about the price....and they have all lowered them as low as they can go!

One day, we will be able to look back....until then, we just try to keep looking forward, one inch at a time!

The Thom And Ray Team Midtown Atlanta Real Estate Thom that is all we can do. I find that if I tell people the truth and they can deal wiht it...we have a chance. I do not do interventions.

hi Jim, You are spot on with the RE climate in this area...Here in Auburn, we are seeing a surge of showings, but that could also mean a FEW looking at A LOT. I'm trying to keep an upbeat attitude, but an accurate one as well. Thanks for sharing your perspective (btw, it was great to be near your brilliance at REtech...I just took it in like sunshine! :-)

Mara Hawks, REALTOR®, First Realty Auburn, Alabama Real Estate (FIRST REALTY Auburn Alabama) We need a clear perspective to move forward. I loved RETech South! I learned so much. It was an incredible event.

Jim:

I am not going to bore you about what we both feel on Atlanta's market, but my market is buzzing again in Bergen County. It hasn't felt like this in a long time. You know I think we are bottoming here and I think we have. I have more things happening and in my office than maybe 2 years.

It is hard deals to make but they are there. The bottom is always hard. It is the middle or 3rd wave in Elliott terms that is easy. I am just happy about the 1st wave.

I also read about the other markets in Southern Cal., Navada, Florida and Arizona which are very brisk. Yes they came way down, but price and rate does it all.

Richard

Richard Stabile Bergen County New Homes Builder Realtor (REMAX real estate associates) Some markets are at different levels. This down turn started earlier in some areas, and later in others. Recovery I am sure has laready started in some areas.

MAR

I have noticed more competition lately from metro atlanta investors buying homes under $25k probably due to the fact you can make 20% on your investment just considering renting and that the government backed loans has raised the investor loan limit back to 10 . Why make 2% on your cash in the bank? Gasoline less than $2 gallon also seemed to help sales. If Gietner/Obama were smart they would raise the investor loan limit to 100 (20% down, 720+ credit) and the market across the country would at least reach a bottom and or start to turn within months.

MAR

phil - Yes but the politicians and their cronies would not make any money off of the misery.

APR

Hey, Jim,

In our area, it is also difficult. My main problem is buyer's credit. I have lots of activities, but 95% can't buy, all have credit issues, needs repair, pay off their stuffs before they can buy. Talked to some lenders, they are facing the same story, 90% of their applications can't buy.

When there's a buyer who can buy, it is always not an easy one, low ball offer, tough negotiation, etc. Superb customer service is top priority to keep the clients stay working with you, need to work hard for future referral, word of mouth.

I hope your market turns around soon, good luck.

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