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When Will We (Or Have We) Hit the Bottom of the Real Estate Market?

By
Real Estate Agent with Re/Max Newport Realty Corp.

Real Estate is local. The overall Real Estate market in the United States affects all local markets. Local markets will reach the bottom of their specific market(s) at different times. Idaho, North Dakota, Wyoming, and a few other states that have not, generally speaking anyway, been victims of predatory lending to the degree other states, such as California, Arizona, Nevada, Florida, ..., have had predatory lending as the norm, rather than the exception, willrecover sooner than the states that were suseptible to predatory lending.

Real Estate is local. I am an expert in my market, Racine County, Wisconsin. We have experienced declines in property values, depending on municipality, ranging from 7% to 18%, annually since 2006.

The number of closed transaction in Racine County for 1st quarter 2009 vs. 1st quarter 2008 the decline  ranges from 28% to 48% depending on the municipality. Are we close to the 'bottom' of our market? Depending on what Washington does, how the automakers deal with their challenges, how consumer confidence does, how the credit markets recover, how the greedy lenders and Wall Street react by making good borrowers pay for the lenders, and risky borrowers, past indiscretions, and how unemployment is managed, ...

According to the most recent study done for the PMI industry, the Racine, Milwaukee Metropolitan Statistical Area, (MSA), is rated at minimal risk, less than a 5% of probable decline in property value over the next 12 months, as compared to other areas that may face declines of 20%-40% over the next 12 months.

Is the bottom near? I think so!

 

 

Jim Valentine
RE/MAX Realty Affiliates - Gardnerville, NV

Well ... I think you are right, I think I agree.  Then ... somethng new happens and ... NOW WHAT?

We believe we must ber approaching the bottom, the national indicators seems to say so, yet, who knows?

Apr 09, 2009 02:21 PM
Bill Lauler
Chase Realty LLC - McLean, VA
Associate Broker,CIPS,CRB,SRES,GRI

Hi Dan , Can you remember what your appreciation rate was in say 2000., ours was 8.5% inside the beltway and about 6% outside the Washington Metro Beltway. the boom came in late 2002 and ended in 2005 for us with a steady decline of about 39.5% outside and 22.5% inside the beltway, until just within the last month or so.

I believe over the next 2-3 months we will know if we have turned the corner.All of this is predicated on the fact that banks will start lending again of course.

Apr 10, 2009 01:13 AM
Jim Crawford
Long & Foster - Fredericksburg, VA
Jim Crawford Broker Associate Fredericksburg VA

I agree, I personally think we are at or near bottom right now.

Apr 10, 2009 01:36 AM
Dan Gobis
Re/Max Newport Realty Corp. - Racine, WI

Bill, In 2000 Racine property values, east of I-94 appreciated 8%, 2001 & 2002 about 4%, 10% in 2003, 9% in 2004, 7% in 2005, and then the downhill slide began, slowly in 2006, picked up steam going downhill in 2007, and out of control decline in 2008, exponentially in the 4th quarter 2008.

After a 3+ year decline, we must be close to bottom, I hope.

Jim & Jim, Let us hope. (and pray)

 

Apr 10, 2009 03:05 AM
Sharon Kolb
Atlanta Decatur Homes - Atlanta, GA
Broker - Atlanta Decatur Homes

Don -- I am also hopeful you are right.  Last year was a great year for me, considering the overall market.

The test will be how things shake out this year.  And, I'm praying too!

Apr 10, 2009 04:33 AM
Dan Gobis
Re/Max Newport Realty Corp. - Racine, WI

Sharon, I had the same experience in '08, this year, not so good, so far.

Apr 10, 2009 12:39 PM