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Think unemployment is "only" 8.5% ... Guess again

By Bob Southard

Real Estate Broker/Owner with Atlas Realty Service, LLC Ga Re lic. 266576

April 10, 2009 05:34 AM

Unemployment is around 8.5% and that is about the same as it was in the 1980"s .... right?

Not quite. It seems that there are actually different number reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Up until the the mid 1990's the number that was commonly reported or quoted was the "U6" number. "U6" a broad figure that includes people that have been unemployed so long that they have basically given up or taken very low paying or part time jobs just to have some sort of income. So in the mid 80's we had a "U6" unemployment of about

@8%

In the mid 1990's the way of reporting was changed to use a much narrower "U3" number. This is the figure that is most often quoted today and reflects the 8.5% (or so) figure that is considered today's unemployment rate. 8.5% was the "official" figure that came out in Early April. However, the Bureau of Labor Statistics still tracks the "U6" number as well. You just don't hear about it.

If you want to compare "apples to apples" then you need to look at the "U6" number as reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. And what was the recent "U6" number .......

15.6% - ouch

Martin Weiss, PHD has written an excellent article that in to much more detail. As a matter of fact he believes that the true unemployment rate goes beyond even the "U6" number. Here is a link to the entire article.

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Bob Southard, e-Pro, Realtor ®, Solid Source Realty, Inc. Buy a home, Sell a home, in Powder Springs, Marietta, Kennesaw, Acworth, Dallas, Hiram,and Cobb, Paulding, Douglas, North Fulton, South Cherokee, County, Ga. Call me for all of your real estate needs.

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Terry Haugen STAGE it RIGHT! 321-956-2495

Stage it Right! - Melbourne, FL

Bob, I posted a blog about that last week. The current unemployment figures don't count people who took parttime work because they couldnt find fulltime, and it doesnt count people who exhausted their benefits and have dropped off the rolls. 15.6% is probably the more realistic number. Ouch is right!

Apr 10, 2009 05:47 AM

Anna "Banana" Kruchten

HomeSmart Real Estate - Phoenix, AZ

602-380-4886

Bob I just heard something on a talk radio show about these figures this am. They said the 80's numbers where 10% + and now it is closer to 8.5%. So I don't know...........sometimes there is so much information out there.

Enjoy your Easter Bob!

Easter Banana

Apr 10, 2009 05:50 AM

TIM MONCRIEF

Tim Monciref - Austin, TX

Over 2,000 homes sold…..

We all must remember that real estate is mostly localized. In the 80's we wished we had only 8% in Texas. Here in Austin we are now lucky with unemployment at just over 6%....and actual domestic growth over the last 12 months. That may all come to a halt this year....but areas from one part of Austin to another differ....one city to another and one state to another. Hopefully this confidence improvement will continue.... Cheers........

Apr 10, 2009 06:06 AM

Charles Buell

Charles Buell Inspections Inc. - Seattle, WA

Seattle Home Inspector

If only we could find statistics that reflected the way things are as opposed to whatever agenda we need them to support.

Apr 10, 2009 06:23 AM

Troy Ott

Coldwell Banker United, REALTORS - Columbia, SC

Unemployment is hitting us hard in South Carolina. I believe we have the highest rate in the nation.

Apr 10, 2009 06:45 AM

Lou Ludwig

Ludwig & Associates - Boca Raton, FL

Designations Earned CRB, CRS, CIPS, GRI, SRES, TRC

Hi Bob

Thanks for sharing the information; I agree with you the numbers being reported on unemployment are no correct.

Good luck and success

Apr 10, 2009 06:56 AM

Susan McQuaide

Keller Williams - Simpsonville, SC

Bob - unfortunately, I don't think we've hit bottom yet. The media has made Obama too big to fail and are covering his butt to avoid further panic and further erosion of his approval numbers. It's interesting to think back to when Clinton was elected and the 'worst economy in 50 years" instantly improved.....but never improved under Bush, no matter that unemployment fell to 4.3% and GDP was steadily climbing until last year.

Apr 10, 2009 10:17 PM

Think unemployment is "only" 8.5% ... Guess again

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