Economic Conditions for the Las Vegas Valley December 2008

 Housing Conditions:

• Foreclosure/Short Sale Listings (3/25/2009): Total Listings 19377; Short Sales: 6833, 35.3% of all listings; Bank Owned Listings: 6642, 34% of all listings. Short sale and REO listings consume 70% of total listings
• New Home Sales (February 2009, units sold): 346 Year Change -56% (excl condo conversions, highrises)
• New Home Sales (February 2009, median price): $218,000 Year Change -20.1% (excl condo conversions, highrises)
• Existing Home Sales (February 2009, units sold): 2606 Year Change +70.4%
• Existing Home Sales (February 2009, median price): $145,000 Year Change: -38.3%
• New Home Permits (February 2009): 139 Year Change -64.5%
• Rental Rate (MLS Monthly Average February 2009): $1419/month 

My analysis:  Distressed listings (foreclosures and short sales) are 70% of total listings.  Credit markets must be watched, it's hard to remain optimistic with all the bad news on Wall Street.  Resale sold units and pendings remain impressive.  Builders cannot compete with bank owned listing prices, thus sales remain lackluster. 

New Residents/Employment Conditions:

• New Residents (March 2009): 4770, Year Change -11.3%
• Total Employment (February 2009): 880,000 Year Change -4.5%
• Unemployment Rate (February 2009) 10.1%, Year Change +98%

My analysis: The tourism, gaming and convention numbers need to improve before these numbers improve.  New Resident Count will go down if no new jobs are created.  Unemployment rate is painful.

Tourism/Gaming Conditions:

• McCarran Airport Total Passengers (February 2009): 3,036,715 Year Change -15.2%
• Gaming Revenue (February 2009): $710,601,181, Year Change -17.9%
• Visitor Volume (February 2009): 3,159,113, Year Change -9.6%
• Convention Attendance (February 2009): 583,168, Year Change  -9.6%
• Hotel/Motel Occupancy (February 1009): 83.9% Year Change -6.2%

My analysis: Rising gas costs and flight cuts during the summer started hurting the tourism business.  This sector needs to see some serious price corrections before we see a comeback.  Corporate credit is not coming back any time soon.

Sources: Salestraq, Home Builder's Research, Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors, Nevada State Gaming Control Board, Nevada Department of Motor Vehicles, McCarran International Airport, Las Vegas Convention & Visitor's Authority, Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation.  Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.  My analysis is my humble opinion.