Housing, like any other "toxic" assets, needs to go through a cleansing process. That means down, before up.

Going Up or Going Up?

And this is going to require liquidating the debt as we cannot continue carrying all that excessive baggage forever. The empty promises, artificially inflated numbers and ongoing uncontrolled bailouts have got to stop. We just can't save everyone that bought a house who shouldn't have. If some people were greedy, lazy or stupid - sorry - they should loose their house and not be rewarded by someone else making the payments. At the same time we are not going get housing back on track we if don't create jobs. People without work are unstable and live in uncertainty. 

Fixing the problem and coming up with a viable, effective, nationwide plan is of course difficult and I do not claim to be an economist or an expert (I track real estate business trends - that's all - for my free monthly enewsletter visit www.RETrends.com). That said let me provide my two cents on the economy:

1. As we have probably reached the lowest point in the housing market, or are within months of reaching it, we need to focus our efforts on short term incentives to regain overall optimism in real estate as a solid investment again if we hope to re-energize buyers into returning to the marketplace.

2. We need to halt foreclosures as far as reasonably possible. Banks need to allow people to extend the amortization of their home loans over a longer period of time; maybe even to 40 years if the situation dictates it. We have got to stop this negative wave that is cycling through the housing industry.

3. Government has to enhance the initial Home Buyers Tax Credit by extending it to ALL homebuyers, not just first-time home buyers. Furthermore, eliminate the recapture of the tax credit for 2008 and provide a true tax benefit across the board. 

4. I am not sure as to how we would implement this but what if all service providers involved in the transaction would provide a rebate of 20% on the fees associated with the purchase of a home for the next year. This would include title companies, mortgage companies, escrow companies, attorneys, etc., and yes, even real estate professionals.

5. Finally wouldn't it be great if we could lock mortgage rates for all home purchases at 4% for an extended period of time; 12 to 18 months? That would really be a boost.

In summary, let's get back to the solid model that worked before: 20% down, documented income, good credit and accurate valuations. Real estate has also been a great investment and on the long term will be again so there is no need for us to create unnatural bubbles. Let's not repeat what happened during the last decade.

Does this resolve all problems? Of course not, but it would certainly revitalize and restore our faith in housing and get buyers off the sideline in significant numbers.  And that's really what we need most in fixing the housing downturn - home buyers with confidence in real estate.

I am sure we each have our own opinion regarding what needs to happen. Love to hear thoughts.

 
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30 Comments on With Every Down, There Is An Up. Let's Get The Confidence Back!

APR
20

Locking mortgage rates at somewhere below 5% is a great idea.  Here is another thought: Why not make mortgages that are originated between 1/1/2009- 6/30-2010 assumable.  That way once we get out of this complex market and interest rates rise, folks who bought in this market would have something attractive to offer future buyers. 

michael guthrie
1:49pm • #1
3 Featured Posts Outside Blog

I like the idea of the mortagages being assumable.  The tough thing is that these mortgage only have lock in expiration dates of 30 to 45 days - for the buyers who are patient enough to wait for short sales there are a lot of unsecurities.

2:48pm • #2
371,501 Points 63 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog

Hello Stefan, Some interesting ideas. Most of the activity in San Diego is in the REO and short sale arenas. The first thing that needs to happen before your ideas can work is remove the "declining market" status that reduces the appraisal by an automatic 5%. It is starting to reak havoc on other than the REO's and the lower than market price short sale listings. Either that or change the definition of market value.

Market value (Property values) is the highest price a ready, willing, and able real estate buyer will pay and the lowest price a real estate seller will accept

3:22pm • #3
147,015 Points 4 Featured Posts

Stefan, that is all sound advice. As for letting some homes go into foreclosure, let's also streamline the short sale process and in areas like South Florida, Phoenix, and Las Vegas, Fannie and Freddie should encourage investors by rescinding some of the draconian measures in place that has large reserve requirements for investors to go beyond 4 homes. Investors would help absorb excess inventory. In times like this cash is king. As long as the money is there for the lending, and overheated markets return to affordability, new owner-occupants and investors can help solve the problenm. 

3:38pm • #4
117,321 Points 2 Featured Posts Outside Blog

FHA mortgages are assumable. This is a great wish and I would like to see some of these things happen but the market will dictate the bottom not our optimism. Market factor need to dictate the end of foreclosures, everything we do to artificially prop up the market will delay its true recovery.

4:17pm • #5
603,136 Points 244 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog

Stefan, I am in one of the hardest hit areas in the country. In my micro market of Poinciana Florida 85% of the real estate closings are distressed properties. 1 in 7 homes are in foreclosure and values have dropped 70% in the last 24 months. BUT......in March we had the highest amount of sales EVER and inventory has dropped from 1100 units in November to 780 today.  Well priced properties are seeing multiple offers and most people are buying cash.

None of this has anything to do with government intervention. It has everything to do with PRICE. Bring prices down and properties will sale.

4:51pm • #6

Great post - thanks for sharing your ideas.

6:53pm • #7

I like the idea of being able to lock into an interest rate for 1 to 12 months -- so many buyers avoid short sales due to the uncertainty of interest rates.

Also agree with the Homebuyer Incentive idea -- I don't know that there is enough money for everyone to get $8000, but maybe $3000 to $5000?

7:06pm • #8

Stefan-

I believe that what we have in many ways is a crisis of confidence. The media loves bad news and unfortunately with the web that bad news permeates everything we do. We need to spread the good news. And agents who are publishers need to spread that positivity.

Spider Juice Technologies helps them out by providing a positive spin on today's marketplace. Check out http://positiveonrealestate.com

Cheers,

Tim O'Keefe

SEO Marketing

 

9:03pm • #9
564,819 Points 95 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router

Stefan, Now why can't people elected think of this. The credit should have been extended to all families to get those home buyers moving. The first time home buyers are usually young and would be buy anyway. It's a nice perk for them but it did not drive buyers into the market.

There are so many reasonable solutions many of which you have named.

9:07pm • #10
5 Featured Posts

Assumable mortgages come through clear and loud. Thanks to everyone who suggested that as another action point.

9:09pm • #11
5 Featured Posts

@Bryant. Wow, 70% value drop. I feel for you. I am thrilled that March made such an incredible come back. I agree that way too many sellers have a ridiculously inflated opinion about the value of their home and that a reduction to more realistic levels will make all the difference. Please keep me posted as to the progress during the year. Good luck.

9:54pm • #12
5 Featured Posts

@Tom. Yes I agree. Confidence and a Positive Attitude.

@Missy. NO, I am not running for office, EVER!

9:57pm • #13
178,248 Points 13 Featured Posts

I think what needs to be done is to repeal the Tax Reform Act of 1986 as it pertains to investment real estate passive loss and income limitations and offerfirst year accelerated depreciation.

What I am seeing generally speaking is that more properties are coming to the market than there are buyers for them.  Until we can start absorbing the excess supply of homes, values will continue to erode. 

10:54pm • #14
APR
21
167,073 Points 6 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router

BlogBoy sounds like my boss. But I have to agree with him (and my boss) somewhat - Price is what ultimately drives the sale of homes.

That being siad, we do need to get buyer confidence back up, and you've given several great suggestions to get it moving in the right direction.

8:00am • #16

I want to take issue with your first point...we need to focus our efforts on short term incentives to regain overall optimism in real estate as a solid investment again if we hope to re-energize buyers into returning to the marketplace.

(I will preface my comments by saying I talking about owner occupied single family homes)

Real Estate as a solid investment again? Real Estate, in and of itself, has never been a good investment. The only thing that might make  real estate a good investment is leverage, and thats risky. As long as we sell real estate as an investment we are encouraging greed. And appealing to greed by asking our clients to take on risk is what got us into this mess.

We need to get away from looking at real estate as an investment and see it for what it is, basic shelter. 

9:21am • #17
207,690 Points 1 Featured Post Localism Sponsor Outside Blog

Extending the tax credit would bring more buyers into the market.  Better still if it were a one time credit and usable as a down payment.

10:21am • #18
Hit Router

Great suggestions, and I also believe that having some assumable mortgages would be a boon.  Still, at the heart of the issue seems to be that "confidence" thing...I'm really not sure what we do to address that, it's going to take some time, and additional short-term incentives to bring most people around.  Having said that, almost every agent I've spoken with recently, in various parts of the country, are seeing more buyers at least testing the waters.   So, maybe we've turned the corner.

As far as investors, not all people who buy investment property are greedy...I've recently sold properties to two different families who purchased additional homes for elderly family members.  Then, there are my retirees who purchase 40 acre parcels of land, split it into 20's or 10's then resell the parcels, carrying the notes to add income.   These people have done this for many years now to supplement their retirement incomes.   I certainly don't consider them to be greedy.   

Sometimes I think that's become a part of the problem, people want someone to point the finger at, someone they can hold responsible for the mess we've been in.  Investors seem to be a logical choice for many.  Of course, the media feeds that perception.  But, no one has bothered to define the term "investor" so a lot of people fall into that category who really don't belong there.   Just my two cents.

10:51am • #19
175,587 Points 1 Featured Post Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router

I agree with some of your thoughts.  However, some really seem to be taking the Free Market out of it even more and substituting Obama type programs. 

11:30am • #20
Outside Blog

GREAT POST... I SAY AMEN.

11:32am • #21
242,802 Points 3 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Stefan,

Good ideas. Banks don't seem to be dealing with mortgage foreclosures in a pro-active manner. They are playing catch-up all along and it's hurting even worse.

1:29pm • #22
226,022 Points 1 Featured Post Outside Blog

I think fix up grants of $8000- $1000 would help as thats what many of the vacant homes need.

1:45pm • #23
189,423 Points 2 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Make up your mind, stoping foreclosures are helping people that shouldn't be in their homes.  Why should anyone live in a home if they can no longer afford it?

5:44pm • #24

Thanks for the information.  I agree ... keep the interest rates low!  Its already working!

Barbara
7:47pm • #25
APR
22
5 Featured Posts

Some very good suggestions everyone. Thanks.

8:24am • #26

Great ideas!  I would add, that the banks just need to get it over with and stop holding back on the write downs of toxic loans.  Since they know that they are not going to be able to collect most of those, they need an organized way of washing them out.  Maybe there are a few that can be saved by the gov't bail out money, so let's get on with that also.  Let's extend the first time buyer credit to everyone and the FHA loans also!  It seems like the banks are the biggest problem and the other shoe has not dropped yet....

Carol Graves
10:35am • #27
5 Featured Posts

@Ron you say that "Real Estate has never been a good investment."

I am not sure that I can agree with that. I know you pre-qualified your statement and I understand the basic need for a roof over one's head and that as such that owner occupied house is not really an instrument that allows speculation. That said a home is still the single largest financial asset most people have and has the average price of homes have over the long term appreciated, and home owners can one day sell and scale down, rent or get a reverse mortgage, real estate is clearly an investment.

 

5:13pm • #28
APR
27
Hit Router

Maybe you should visit Washington, you have good ideas....go and implement them!

9:49am • #29

I also like the idea of locking in a very low interest rate for an extended period of time however a huge problem is that many buyers, first-time or otherwise, do not have 20% to put down so the low interest rate probably won't help them anyway. Very good post and some great points. Thank you.

10:25pm • #30

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Stefan Swanepoel

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