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For a while now I've referred to our San Diego residential real estate market as being psychotic.  Depending on how you looked at it, you would get a totally different, conflicting viewpoint.  The lenders and some sellers have played hardball like it was a seller's market. The press and the buyer's all believe it is a buyer's market.  Properties have been getting multiple offers beyond our hottest sellers' market.  Prices / values continue to slide pretty much across the board implying a buyers' market.  Some agents perceive the market as hitting bottom while others see a continued decline throughout the year (and possibly beyond).

What IS the truth?

Beyond the oft repeated statement that all real estate is local, if we look at the local inventory by price range a clearer understanding of why there appear to be multiple markets in motion here.  (And for those who want to make the discussion about geography, the price points tend to be associated with specific locations, but it seems to be less about the location than the price.)

Single Family Detached Home Supply

When presented this way, it almost jumps out that we have three different markets.  Our "hot" market is for properties in the $200,000 - $450,000 price range.  Up to $800,000 is a more "normal" market.  And beyond that it is clearly a buyer's market.

I will have to go back and try the same exercise on prior years.

For those of you in other areas, this might be a useful excercise to see where your price points are.


Robert T. Boyer, Ph.D.


Robert T. Boyer, Ph.D.
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9 Comments on "Truth" about the Residential Real Estate Market

APR
23
2009
291,061 Points 1 Featured Post

Well done Robert.  Like you, I love analyzing data and presenting it in chart form.  It often makes a murky situation clear as yours has done.

12:41am • #1

Thanks for the information I think it will be very helpful .

Liz

12:43am • #2
291,061 Points 1 Featured Post

I felt the need to return and add a comment about my own market here in Hawaii.  We have a similar situation where our lower price bracket of $250K-$500K is a hot market but beyond that it's very slow.  In our case, it appears to be due to our market being dominated by people buying homes to live in as opposed to mainland investors.  It's good that our Hawaii citizens finally get a chance to take a batting position and in today's market, they can hit a home run.

12:44am • #3
2 Featured Posts

Robert,

I like the way you think. I read a blog the other day that was about how the media was negatively impacting real estate...and several agents seemed shocked that the news was bad when they were experiencing multipla offers.

Well...when Rolls Royces come down to $5,000...I'm buying one (and I'm not even in the market for a new car!)

Multiple offers on properties, that as recently as two years ago sold for $600,000...and are now selling for $275,000 is NOT cause for celebration. While I recognize that movement in the real estate market is positive versus inventories perpetually climbing....let's get real.

How anyone in real estate can state that the market is rebounding just because the "less than half price" properties have multiple offers on them seems...well...unfathomable to me. Circuit City had 70% off sales too as they went out of business....but I wouldn't call it a positive thing.

It's refreshing to see someone take the time to assemble a graph which helps everyone understand what the true market conditions are.

Kudos.

Dave


1:03am • #4
825,741 Points 9 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Robert, very well done!  I hadn't thought of terming things as seperate markets within the local market, but it does make sense.  Great post!

1:47am • #6
APR
25
2009
192,976 Points 4 Featured Posts Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master

Robert,

If you pulled all the statistics from the MLS to calculate this that must have been a lot of work.  You state that the statistics are as of April 20th but over what time period and are these from your local market or the county of San Diego?  How large in terms of number of homes in inventory was your research?

10:36am • #7

Robert,

Your chart really gives the average consumers a clear picture of what's happening. A "chart" is worth a thousand words.

1:17pm • #8
APR
26
2009
101,562 Points 2 Featured Posts

Hi Anja,

The rate of sales is based on the entire last year - total sales in each price range divided by 12.  Then, to get current months of inventory, the current count of active listings are divided by the calculated monthly average.

The general assumption to the approach is that the rate of sales is going to be roughly the same this year as last.  I have stats and charts that show we have been more active than last year, which (assuming the higher rate of purchases continues) means the months of inventory is actually lower than shown above.  The other "flaw" in this approach is that when months of inventory is less than, say half a year (technically one year), then seasonal fluctuations will cause the months of inventory to read slightly higher or lower than they "really" are.  That is, in the spring/summer, when more sales are occurring (than winter), the rate of sales is actually higher so the actual months of inventory is lower.  Where the chart shows 3-months, it might truly be only 2.5 months.  In the fall/winter, the opposite would be true.

I took all of "San Diego" by selecting the 11 market areas.  It is the most efficient way I've found to get San Diego without having to deal with all the out of area and misc zipcodes and without having to select zipcodes manually.  As I recall, there are over 8,000 active SFDs in this chart and over 7,000 active SFAs in the other post.

And yes, it's not the most pleasant task pulling this from the MLS, I wish I had more direct access to the data (so I could use my computer science background to make this analysis much more efficient).

2:13am • #9

What does the graphic say?

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The San Diego Real Estate Housing Market tends to lead the nation's real estate activities. This blog looks at current activity and trend data, including sales rates, months of inventory, median home price, unemployment, inflation, etc., with an intent to provide timely predictions for our market. Because such a large part of the current market is make up of San Diego Foreclosures and REOs we will also look deeply at how they affect the current environment. Additionally, specific market segments are monitored, such as La Jolla Real Estate, Del Mar Real Estate, Rancho Santa Fe Real Estate, and Carmel Valley Real Estate


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