We're a month into the 2nd quarter of 2009 and Novato home sales are picking up. Since the first of the year, there's been a hefty increase in buyer activity at many price points. Specifically, there's been a market surge for Novato properties priced up to $700,000.

The chart here represents pending sales, or homes that are in escrow. The main reason that the number of homes in escrow is an important indicator is that it represents today's news, whereas closed sales are yesterday's market.

Properties priced at $700,000 and below have seen a boom in activity as buyers finally are getting off the fence and snapping up some good deals. This is a good indication of a bottom forming. In January, the $0-$500,000 market was pretty hot, with 45% of single-family homes in escrow (that is by definition a 'sellers' market). But look at it now! As of last week, almost 58% of homes are pending - an almost 13% jump.

The biggest spike in activity, though, has been in the $500,000-$600,000 range. Pending sales have risen a whopping 21.5%, taking it from a neutral market to a sellers market. (Traditionally, when 0-25% of homes are pending it's considered a buyer's market; 25-40% is a neutral market favoring neither buyers nor sellers and 40% and above is a sellers market.) This is not a perfect system; think of it as a rough rule of thumb. For example, I would argue that buyers are in the driver's seat in the $1M-$1.5M range, even though pending sales numbers indicate it's a neutral market. More on luxury below.

The $600,000-$700,000 range has really perked up too. In late January, 27% of homes were in escrow. Last week, that number had jumped by 17% to 44% pending. Even the $700,000-$800,000 range, which has been seriously suffering, has come back to life a bit, up 14%.

As predicted, still in the dumps are homes priced between $800,000 and $1 million. This is an effect of the difficulty of getting jumbo loans (stiff requirements) and the dearth of move-up/move-around buyers. Only 8% of these homes are pending, down from January's meager 14%. If you are a buyer in this price range, you have a definite advantage.

As for the Novato luxury home market, defined here as $1M and above, there are qualified buyers out there ready to buy! I received six offers on a $1,125,000 home in Pointe Marin last month (pictured here). But the key is that these buyers - like all buyers today - are looking for a deal. And, they want to know there is value in their purchase in the short term. They already know home prices will appreciate in the next 3 to 5 years. They want to feel there is value in their purchase with regard to the next 8 to 12 months.

So, while the pending sales numbers show a neutral market for the $1M-$1.5M range, I believe buyers are still in the driver's seat. Sellers must price their homes aggressively (meaning at or slightly below market) if they want to sell today. And for sellers to get the most money for their home, they need to price it correctly from the start. I have some effective strategies for selling homes in this market, which I'm happy to share with you. Feel free to contact me.

If you'd like more information about the Marin County real estate market or your home's value, please contact me today! I'm happy to help. kmcginnis@fhallen.com or 415-899-9210