The season is here. Or is it? The streets and restaurants in Flagstaff may be busy, but will the visitors who are escaping the heat in the Valley be in a home-buying mood? Will they give our residential market the jump-start that sellers have been waiting for?

Sellers continue to be optimistic that the market will pick up. They cite factors including attractive interest rates, positive economic news, and a smorgasbord of choices for buyers. But let's take a closer look:

Long-term interest rates continue to be low by historical standards (though they are up slightly this week). "Leading economic indicators" in general continue to be strong (though some are beginning to suggest a more sluggish economy in the next few months). But we had these same conditions last year and buyers did not bite.

There are indeed many more homes for buyers to choose from. While it means more shopping activity, the existence of so many choices seems to make the buyers more hesitant - what other perfect home may be on the horizon, about ready to be laid on the table by another eager seller? This is like playing "Wheel of Fortune."  The contestant can solve the puzzle but wants to keep spinning in order to accumulate more money; however, there is a risk with each spin because the wheel can stop at "Bankrupt." Greedy contestants keep spinning and often end up with nothing.

Likewise, buyers should recognize how much they have won rather than how much they might be leaving on the table. If history repeats itself, they may wait too long. And if they are renting, their opportunity costs are even higher. There will not be warning before the market changes and buyers again find a smaller selection of homes, rising prices, and sellers unwilling to accept contingencies or repair concessions. So waiting for the market to "bottom-out" has its own risks.

Each day brings a new spin of the wheel. Buyers have thousands in winnings waiting to be picked up with a smart purchase and, this week at least, continue to be lucky (though the interest rate up-tick was not in their favor). How many more days will the buyers test fate? In the game show, there is only one winner and two losers. Buyers who sit on the fence now should think about those odds.