Not to burst anyone's bubble, but I think the Real Estate market is going to get worse.

I'm not trying to be pessimistic, and yes I've had my morning coffee.  But the current environment with retail residential resales is likely to get worse in the next few years for the following three reasons:

  1. Rising interest rates - We have had so much money creation, that higher rates (remember 1982?), are more than likely.
  2. The Federal Tax credit incentive will expire - The $8,000 Federal Homebuyers Tax Credit for first time homebuyers will expire, that is a BIG incentive right now motivating a lot of buyers for the lower end of the market.
  3. The economy will not improve that much, if at all - The economic forecast according to the FED is not expected to improve that much by next year at this time, in fact many experts expect it to get worse.

There are of course a couple ways to plan for this. 

Change careers now - Although what many agents will do I don't know, it's not like there are a plethora of available high paying jobs available right now.

 OR

Impress upon potential buyers and sellers that this year is probably the best time they are going to see in a VERY LONG time to buy of sell real estate.

 

6 Comments on The residential real estate market is probably going to get worse

APR
30
248,107 Points 1 Featured Post Outside Blog

Not to mention there is still a giant tidal wave of foreclosures coming.  At least 1/2 the properties currently listed as short sales or going through loan modification will ultimately become bank REOs.

8:41am • #1
215,188 Points 19 Featured Posts Outside Blog Hit Router

Stuart, While I don't completely disagree with your assumptions, I also don't believe that residential real estate will get worse everywhere. We all know the saying "Real Estate is Local." There are, and will continue to be pockets of excellence. Rich

8:43am • #2

Rob - I've heard the pipleline of foreclosures in CA is between 80 to 100 thousand homes that will be coming into the foreclosure process now that the moratorium has been lifted.

Richard - I agree, we are fortunate in the Denver Metro area, however, the national 'tide' still affects our market.

8:50am • #3
184,343 Points 1 Featured Post

Then we continue on with short sales and 'subject to' purchases...well as investors at least. 

9:36am • #4
238,322 Points Outside Blog

One thing you leave out is the impending hyperinflation potential, and that might also be a reason why some people are pulling out of cash positions and buying good hard assets -- real estate in specific areas may benefit.  

11:41am • #5

I agree hyperinflation is a far fetched, but possible scenario.   In that case real estate would provide a basic hedge but lacks portability and is subject to governmental asset and currency controls.

It may be better to diversify somewhat offshore.

12:38pm • #6

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Stuart Dobson

Boulder, CO

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Surety Realty Inc.

Office Phone: (303) 919-0309

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Real Estate in Colorado, International and Commercial real estate including homes, industrial, office, warehouse, investments, foreclosure, NED lists, and tips for buyers, sellers and investors.


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