Let’s take a look at the median-price history of the Orlando real estate market ...

2000 - 2003 ~ Orlando median house prices advanced at an average appreciation rate of 11%. Much of this strong showing is attributable to 2001, when Orlando's new-construction housing boom was in full swing. That year alone, median prices went up nearly 22%.

2004 - 2005 ~ The housing bubble was spinning heads, recording 25.5% and 27.7% increases to the median price in each respective year.

2006 ~ Appreciation continued, but at a much tamer 4% rate.

2007 ~ Depreciation began, showing a 10% decline in median home prices.

2008 ~ Median prices registered a whopping 26% decline.

YTD 2009 (through April) ~ Depreciation has shown no signs of stopping, going down 18% in just 4 months.

Now for some What-If Scenarios ...

Had the Orlando market climbed at a steady, fairly normal, and predictable 5% appreciation rate from year 2000 forward, the median price would now be at $170,500. Instead, it’s $137,000, or nearly 20% below normal levels.

Let’s say the housing recovery begins this year ... something many of us are hoping for and many economists are predicting. Let’s further say that appreciation immediately swings up to a healthy 8% level ... not as strong as the 2000-03 average ... but a compromise between those strong ‘pre-bubble’ years and normal levels.

Median house prices will not catch up to average 5% appreciation levels until 2014 ...

... or reach 2005 highs until 2016.

If you’re a homeowner who’s been holding off selling in anticipation of the housing recovery, you have 2 choices:

1. Hold your breath and if you have any oxygen left, put your house on the market in 2014, 2015, or 2016
   
2. Put your house on the market today at 2009 market values