What's in store for the week ahead? First, a short - but relevant - history lesson. World War I was sometimes called the "War of the Trenches", because of the unique way that ground battles were fought. A long trench was dug by each opposing force, and they would fight between the two trenches, using the trench itself for cover as needed. Whichever side won that particular battle would advance forward, taking over their opponent's trench and proceeding to fight forward. Now - look at the chart below, and imagine you are in a hot air balloon, looking down over a WWI battlefield. C'mon, use your imagination.
You can see that the 200-day Moving Average has been a very tough "trench" held firmly by the Bond Bulls, who have kept Bond prices above this level for the past nine months running and subsequently, kept home loan rates low. But just this week, the Bond Bears have finally penetrated and defeated this tough trench. And as Bond prices have fallen, home loan rates have risen. And in the past, this particular trench - the 200-day Moving Average - has been a real tough one to beat. In fact, last time Bond prices fell below this level, it took an eighteen month battle to win the trench back, and help home loan rates improve!
This means that the overall trend for home loan rates doesn't look too positive in the coming months, unless some very Bond-friendly news makes its way to the front lines. And with a thin economic calendar in the week ahead - don't expect any significant improvements in the near term.
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