Nestor -- wow, that's a lot of short sales! Those are very complicated for an agent, and it looks like you've carved out a great niche for yourself in that area. Good for you. (Not so good for your sellers, obviously. Tragic, actually.)

Let me try to clarify my perspective on the current housing situation.

I was trying to make three points in my media interviews today.

First, Zillow's data (and my opinion) is that home prices have further to fall in almost every major city, and certainly at the national aggregate level. Home values will decline from today's levels because of new foreclosures and short sales, as well as an inventory glut from homes already on the market. New job losses will also contribute. Additionally, there are still a lot of ARM resets coming (I don't recall the specific number) which will create a whole new group of distressed sellers, unable to cover their mortgage obligations and unable to refi because of negative equity.

Second, Zillow's data shows a significant amount of homeowners have negative equity -- about 20 million homes, or about 1 in 5. Six months ago it was 1 in 7 homeowners that had negative equity. As you know, negative equity is a serious issue for a homeowner because they can't refi with negative equity, and they can't draw down from a HELOC which means they can't fuel personal consumption off of their equity.

Third, there is a massive amount of "shadow inventory" waiting in the wings, which will come online as new listings when the housing market starts to turn. Conservatively, there are about 20 million homeowners who are basically waiting to list their home. About 1/3 of homeowners say they're at least "somewhat likely" to list their home in the next 12 months if they see "an improvement in the housing market". Using that 1/3 number would get us in the 30 million range, so I'm being conservative when I say about 20 million. As you probably know, there are about 4 million homes for sale now. The reason this "shadow inventory" matters a lot for all of us is that it will stall a recovery, because new listings will come on the market to sop up any new demand that comes. As a result, we'll see an "L-shaped" recovery, rather than a "V-shaped" recovery.

OK, so now that I've thoroughly depressed all of you....

First, what advice would I give to owners? Refi if you can, and don't sell if you don't have to.

To renters and first-time-homebuyers? Buy! Even though this probably isn't the bottom of the market, if you're going to stay in your home for a few years it doesn't matter that much. And timing the bottom precisely is impossible anyway. So take advantage of the huge amount of inventory, the low prices, the attractive financing, and the government subsidy of your first time home purchase.

To sellers: if you want to sell your home, price it correctly (which is probably lower than you'd like).

And finally, to real estate agents: Homeowners, buyers and sellers are terrified in the current environment. They need your help more than ever -- you're like a doctor to them in the midst of a health care epidemic. Educate, console, counsel, and you'll be invaluable to your clients. And of course, most of all, remember to market yourselves online because that's where your clients are.

Jason,

We actually do better than the clustering idea you suggest. We produce individual reports for 161 cities, down to the neighborhood level. (And of course, we also produce valuations down to the home level, 3x per week.)

Here's the link.

Click on any one of the excel icons and look at the different worksheets.Here's the Charlotte report for you.

By the way, I looked you up on Zillow. Your profile page is here. It looks like you haven't uploaded a photo or otherwise improved your free profile page. It will improve your SEO and make you look better on Zillow, and it's free. Here's a video that might be helpful. And another one on Zillow Advice.

Dan,

In what way is Zillow "driving prices down in the whole country"?

Thank you Aida