There was not much movement in most of the major mortgage products this week. The 30 year rate dropped from 4.86 to 4.82. This is only slightly above the 4.78 all time low that was reached a few weeks ago. The 15 year rate dropped from 4.52 to 4.50. There was some interesting movement with the 5 and 1 year arm. The 5 year arm dropped from 4.82 to 4.79. At the same time the 1 year arm rose from 4.71 to 4.82. This is the first time the 1 year arm has been above the 5 year arm. Regardless both rates are pointless because they are at or near the same rates for a 30 year arm; therefore there is no reason to get an arm instead of a 30 year mortgage in the current market. Below are mortgage rates for the last few weeks and from 6 months ago on November 20, 2008.

May 21, 2009
30-yr 4.82 15-yr 4.50 5-yr ARM 4.79 1-yr ARM 4.82

May 14, 2009
30-yr 4.86 15-yr 4.52 5-yr ARM 4.82 1-yr ARM 4.71

May 07, 2009
30-yr 4.84 15-yr 4.51 5-yr ARM 4.90 1-yr ARM 4.78

Apr 30, 2009
30-yr 4.78 15-yr 4.48 5-yr ARM 4.80 1-yr ARM 4.77

Nov 20, 2008
30-yr 6.04 15-yr 5.73 5-yr ARM 5.87 1-yr ARM 5.29

As we can see rates have not experienced much movement in the last month. They have continued to hover around all time lows for the month of May. They remain substantially lower than what we saw 6 months ago. In addition to rates we always like to look at actual mortgage payments. We took today's rates and translated them into a mortgage payment for a 200k mortgage. We did the same thing with rates from last week and rates from November 20, 2008.

May 21
30-yr $1051.74
15-yr $1529.98
5-yr ARM $1048.12
1-yr ARM $1051.74

May 14
30-yr $1056.59
15-yr $1532.03
5-yr ARM $1051.74
1-yr ARM $1038.47

Nov 20
30-yr $1204.24
15-yr $1658.67
5-yr ARM $1182.43
1-yr ARM $1109.36

A mortgage payment this week is slightly lower than what it would have been last month. This is nothing compared to the saving one would get compared to 6 months ago. For a 200k house a mortgage payment is $152.50 less a month now than it would have been on November 20, 2008 for a drop of 12.66%. This is often forgotten when the media talks about home prices being down 15% to 20%. After one factors in mortgage rates along with falling house prices the actual payments could be down over 30%.

So what do we expect to happen over the next few months? As long as the economy stays week mortgage rates will probably continue to hover around just under 5%. Once the economy starts to recover the general expectation is that rates should start to rise. It's hard to know how high mortgage rates will go once the economy recovers. Estimates have ranged from 10% to 18%. Most of this will depend on how quickly the economy recovers and if the FED moves quickly enough to changes policies from boosting the economy to slowing inflation.


Ki lives in Austin Texas. He website provides a free Austin home search. He also provides a mortgage calculator widget along with a few other mortgage widgets that show updated information on mortgage rates.