The United States economy is on the way up, according to East Carolina University's Bureau of Business Research. Gas prices are expected to hold steady this summer while companies are expected to increase production and eventually create more jobs.
James Kleckley, director of Bureau of Business Research, said that the worst part of the economic slump is likely over, and he is starting to see the economy slowly improve.
The Bureau of Business Research monitors economic indicators on the national and international level with a particular focus on how it affects eastern North Carolina.
"The worst of the worst was probably at the end of last year and the beginning of this year," he said.
"We are not losing jobs at the same pace. We are starting to see a more optimistic consumer and a more optimistic investor in the stock market."
Kleckley said the economic signs of a turnaround are now evident, but it's a slow process to climb back from such a dramatic decline.
"It is like turning an airliner or a cruise ship. You can't just stop on a dime, you have to slowly turn it around," he said.
"At the first of the year, those of us that follow this on a regular basis were really confused about what was going. You look at things and the way they are supposed to work when you go into recession, but they were happening more dramatically."
But the economy has stabilized slightly since then, and it appears to be on a climb.
"We are not as uncertain now as we were three months ago. It was pretty scary," Kleckley said.
While the economy in terms of production and investment seems to be climbing, Kleckley said it could be a while before new jobs are created.
Companies tend to increase hours of employees while increasing production before creating new positions.
Employment is a lagging indicator as companies tend to wait beyond an initial increase in production before hiring new workers, Kleckley said.
One factor in the recovery is the expected stability in the gas markets this summer.
Kleckley said that indications show that gas prices will be between $2.25 and $2.50 per gallon, slightly more than half of the peek price last summer.
"Of course anything could happen, but I think that is the range of what we are looking at," he said.
A stable affordable gas market will drive the rest of the economy and keep production and shipping costs down, which will help in the recovery, he said.
But the recovery on all levels will be slow and the economy will look different from the economy before the downturn.
"When we come back from this, we will be different consumers. We will not borrow as much and we will save more," Kleckley said.
"It will have implications about where we shop and eat and the things we buy."
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