Marco & Naples: Where is the Market Moving

When Buyers and Sellers are looking at the real estate market, they often focus on national reports of the overall market neglecting the fact that each market is unique.   Even within local markets, we see different properties moving at a different pace than other areas of the market. 

Marco Island Update

Figure 1a - Marco - Four Year Sales History with May 2009 Pending Sales
Based on information from the Marco island Area Association of Realtors for the period 5/1/05 through 5/21/09.

On Marco Island, reference the Figure 1a. which shows the following information:

• A slight decline in overall closed sales for April 2009.   One positive aspect of the real estate market is the sale of single family homes which experienced a 12% increase in closed sales in April for a year over year comparison. 
• The "Pending" tag (the largest bar on the chart - located on the far right) indicates all of the properties that are currently under contract (as of 5/21/09).
  • Pending sales represents a total of 94 properties where all contingencies have been removed from the contract and is moving closer to a closing date.
  • Pending with contingencies represents a total of 86 properties under contract but there is some obstacle such as a short sale, financing, or other type of contingency, which may keep the property from moving to close.  
  • One surprising note was the ratio of distressed sales (short sale, foreclosure, and pre-foreclosure) to 2009 closed and pending sales.  Out of the current pending sales and 2009 closed sales, only 28% of the properties under contract or sold in 2009 fall into the distressed sale category.   This number is much lower than figures reported in other areas of the state and country.   

For condos on Marco Island, the condominiums with the strongest closed and pending sales activity in 2009 can be found in the following areas:
·         Admiralty - 4 closed sales and 7 pending sales
·         Royal Marco/Riviera (Hideaway Beach)- 9 closed sales and 1 pending sale
·         South Seas Towers 3 & 4 (weekly rentals) - 5 closed sales and 3 pending sales
·         Madeira - 4 closed sales and 3 pending sales
·         Monterrey - 3 closed sales and 4 pending sales
·         Gulfview - 3 closed sales and 3 pending sales
·         Belize - 5 closed sales

Naples Update

 Figure 2b.  Naples - Four Year Closed Sale History
Based on information from the Naples Area Board of REALTORS for the period 6/1/05 through 5/31/09.

Just over the bridge in Naples we see a different picture.  Once again, Naples reported improved sales in April 2009.   According to NABOR, overall pending home sales increased 87 percent to 1088 in April 2009 compared to 583 in April 2008.   For the better part of 2009, the strongest area for sales was found in the lower price points.  For April, Naples is reporting that sales are increasing across the pricing spectrum from the lower price points to luxury homes.   As you can see from Figure 1b (Naples-Four Year Closed Sales History), sales were stronger in the last three months than the previous three years. 
 

Buyers & Interest Rates

Where are the buyers coming from in the local markets?  

• Investors are starting to make their way back into the market especially in the under $500,000 price point.
• "Near-term" retirees looking to buy something at today's prices for fear that their dream property won't be available at an affordable price when they retire. 
• Retirees are buying properties in our local area to save on state income taxes in Florida.

 
Another positive motivation for buyers is interest rates.  For the week ending May 21, 2009, Freddie Mac reports a drop in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 4.82 percent and the 15-year fixed mortgage rate dipped to 4.5 percent.   Reference an excerpt from a recent article on Barrons.com titled "Bargain Hideaways, by Karen Hube,
 
 As activity starts to pick up, buyers are sure to be crunching the numbers more carefully than they used to. For example, while many have the means to pay cash, they may choose to get mortgages anyway, Reuter says. The reasoning is that, with interest rates so low -- 6.3% on a 30-year fixed jumbo loan -- it makes great sense to finance a purchase and maintain liquidity as opportunities for other investments arise, she says.

Economists & Predictions

On CNNMoney.com, Tom Kunz, CEO of real estate broker Century 21, stated that gloomy economic news may deter buyers at this time.  Kunz said "timing the market that way is often a mistake. Not only can buyers miss the bottom but mortgage rates can rise from the current low rates and the increase could wind up costing consumers money."
 
In the article "Bargain Hideaways" on Barrons.com, Hube acknowledges that the usually stable luxury real estate market has been impacted by the downturn of the real estate and financial markets.  Hube states that while pricing is down, the luxury real estate market is starting to see signs of a rebound.  One indicator was quoted by U.S. Trust.  The findings show a 60% increase in real estate purchases in March and April over the last two months of 2008 by high net worth individuals, or individuals with a net worth of at least $5 million and investable assets of at least $3 million.   According to Celia Chen, director of housing economics for Moody's Economy.com, there is a lot of pent-up demand for high-end real estate which will drive the market as confidence in the economy returns.
 
In line with Chen's comment about pent up demand being unleashed upon signs of consumer confidence, the Dow Jones reported that Consumer Confidence rose sharply in May to its highest level since September 2008.  Furthermore, in conjunction with the increase in consumer confidence, the Associated Press reports that 90% of the economists predict an end to the recession by the end of 2009.    Hube's article on Fortune.com indicates that buyers should buy their luxury properties before this market snaps back and pent-up demand is unleashed.

Conclusion & Article Links

Where do you foresee the real estate market going in the near future?   Are you optimistic or pessimistic?  Send us your thoughts at NatalieK@PremierMail.net. 

Premier Properties of Southwest Florida, Inc. REALTORS

NatalieK@PremierMail.net