Economic Conditions for the Las Vegas Valley May 2008

 Housing Conditions:

• Foreclosure/Short Sale Listings (5/15/2009): Total Listings 14938; Short Sales: 6156, 41.2% of all listings; Bank Owned Listings: 3761, 25.2% of all listings. Short sale and REO listings consume 66% of total listings
• New Home Sales (April 2009, units sold): 325 Year Change -56.6% (excl condo conversions, highrises)
• New Home Sales (April 2009, median price): $215,650 Year Change -15.6% (excl condo conversions, highrises)
• Existing Home Sales (April 2009, units sold): 3652 Year Change +62.5%
• Existing Home Sales (April 2009, median price): $130,000 Year Change: -43.5%
• New Home Permits (April 2009): 346 Year Change -51.3%
• Rental Rate (MLS Monthly Average April 2009): $1348/month 

My analysis:  Distressed listings (foreclosures and short sales) are 66% of total listings.  THIS IS DOWN FOR THE FIRST TIME THAT I HAVE BEEN KEEPING TRACK OF THESE STATS - SEVERAL YEARS!  Credit markets must be watched, interest rates are rising quickly too.  Resale sold units and pendings remain impressive.  Builders cannot compete with bank owned listing prices, thus sales remain lackluster. 

New Residents/Employment Conditions:

• New Residents (April 2009): 4770, Year Change -23.9%
• Total Employment (April 2009): 871,400 Year Change -5.9%
• Unemployment Rate (April 2009) 10.4%, Year Change +108%

My analysis: The tourism, gaming and convention numbers need to improve before these numbers improve.  New Resident Count will go down if no new jobs are created.  Unemployment rate is painful.

Tourism/Gaming Conditions:

• McCarran Airport Total Passengers (April 2009): 3,565,334 Year Change -5.9%
• Gaming Revenue (April 2009): $734,711,904, Year Change -13.6%
• Visitor Volume (April 2009): 3,497,132, Year Change -4.7%
• Convention Attendance (April 2009): 414,764, Year Change  -23%
• Hotel/Motel Occupancy (April 2009): 88% Year Change -2.2%

My analysis:   This sector (tourism) needs to see some serious price corrections before we see a comeback.  Corporate credit is not coming back any time soon.  It will be hard to get convention attendance back up without corporate credit.  Glad to see regular tourists are making their way here with the imbalance of the other numbers to replace the convention attendee numbers.  Gaming and convention business is big business and those numbers MUST increase.

Sources: Salestraq, Home Builder's Research, Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors, Nevada State Gaming Control Board, Nevada Department of Motor Vehicles, McCarran International Airport, Las Vegas Convention & Visitor's Authority, Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation.  Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.  My analysis is my humble opinion.