I have been in real estate long enough to realize that we had a "Dry Spring" market. It was not business as usual in Atlanta real estate. The spring market was a non event. Yes in some markets they are touting sales are up, but they neglect to share the fact they are still way off their normal highs, and that home prices in many areas of the nation are in free fall. More sales is great news if prices remained stable or rose! A fire sale in home prices is not good news. That leaves home sellers are wondering where are all the buyers. Well first of all there aren't too many buyers in the market. In the Atlanta real estate market where over 50% of the mortgages in the last few year were a 100% financing...well there is a major correlation...that there are now about 50% less buyers. The remaining buyers are fixated on using FHA financing, but they do not have the 3.5% down payment required nor the closing costs.
Many buyers want to buy but are totally locked out of the system. Inducements for the 8K tax credit, selling bonuses, inducements, lower prices, the GA tax credit and historically low fixed rate financing have not brought out the buyers in droves as those orchestrating the recovery had hoped for. Why? Well foreclosures remain very high in the Atlanta area, and so is rising unemployment. Even though there was some moderation in May for unemployment filings, in metro Atlanta last month 33,078 people filed unemployment claims. That is a 72 percent increase from last year. Without jobs, there is no need to buy a home. For those that have a job fear controls the process. An employed worker may have been advised that cutbacks are coming. "Do not make any major expenditures!" The lay off of a manager, or co-worker is proof enough for anxious first time home buyers to postpone the buying decision. It seems to be a smart alternative for many especially since home prices continue to fall. Even the prospect of higher mortgage rates has not increased the number of lookers, or those jumping off the fence to buy. It isn't just layoffs that have culled the buyer pool. Home sellers must realize that no one is hiring, and certainly not in retail or food service where restaurants seem to be closing buy the day. Companies that are still viable, want to conserve as much cash as possible.
The buyers in this market still tend to be first time home buyers, investors, and bargain seekers. The homes and properties that are selling for the most part are those that a distress priced or priced under market. Homes priced to market are not selling.
A real estate market cannot be sustained by first time home buyers, investors and bargain hunters.
All together those three niches have never represented more than 30-40% of our market.
It's the folks that are not buying that are our market.