Trading activity in the mortgage market is light this morning as investors pace the floor awaiting the results of today's record-setting $37 billion 5-year note auction (concludes at 1:00 p.m. ET).  This big debt offering will be followed within roughly an hour by the much anticipated release of the post-meeting statement from the Federal Open Market Committee -- expected at 2:15 p.m. ET.

Most observers believe today's 5-year note offering will be well bid by domestic and foreign investors alike.  If so, this event will likely have little, if any noticeable impact on the trend trajectory of mortgage interest rates today.   A poorly bid 5-year note auction, a condition that would require the government to offer yet higher yields to attract the required capital, will almost certainly cause disappointed mortgage investors to nudge rates fractionally higher.

On a different subject -- the Commerce Department reported this morning that new orders for long-lasting manufactured goods rose by a much-stronger-than-expected 1.8% in May - three times the 0.6% gain most economists had expected to see.  New orders excluding transportation advanced 1.1% last month, well ahead of the consensus estimate for an improvement of 0.4%.  In a separate report the Commerce Department said new home sales slipped 0.6% lower in May as the median sales price rose to $221,600 from the April level of $212,200.  The Mortgage Bankers of America chimed in with their weekly index of loan applications -- which rose 6.6% during the week ended June 19 - after slowing to a pace not seen since last November.  Purchase applications were up 7.3% while refinance applications increased by 5.9%.   This collective body of data simply added to a growing collection of statistics suggesting the economy is stabilizing.     

Mortgage investors are keenly aware that there is a big difference between an economy that is stabilizing -- and an economic recovery.  Until/less the macro-economic data trends improve on a multiple month-over-month basis -- the upward pressure stronger-than-expected economic data will exert on the direction of mortgage interest rates will continue to be largely muted.

Today's conforming 30 year fixed rate is at 5.50%.