Mortgage Market Report

Market Outlook
Tuesday, June 30, 2009 7:15 AM
Price Trend: Negative
Price Volatility: High
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Current Conditions: Today’s Economic Data (all times PST)
FNMA 4.5 99-20 (-11) Consumer Confidence 6:00
GNMA 4.5 99-22 (-11) Case Shiller Index 6:00
10yr Yield 3.560% Chicago PMI 6:45
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Commentary:
Bond prices have been hit hard this morning by economic data and quarter end trading. The Case Shiller
Home Price Index showed that the pace of declines in the housing market is slowing. This is consistent
with other recent reports showing that prices in some areas are improving. The Chicago Purchasing
Managers’ Index increased this month and although it still shows that manufacturing in the mid-west is
contracting, the pace of that contraction is slowing. Albert Durso of IFR Markets wrote this morning, “Less
negative is the new positive.” How true… Consumer Confidence, on the other hand, took an unexpected
dive this month. This seems to have been largely overlooked, though.
This Week’s Calendar:
Date ET Release For Actual Consens
us Prior
Jun
30
09:00
a.m. Consumer Confidence Jun 49.3 55.1 54.9
Jun
30
09:00
a.m.
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price
Index Apr -18.1% -18.75% -18.70%
Jun
30
09:45
a.m. Chicago PMI Jun 39.9 38.5 34.9
Jul 01 08:15
a.m. ADP Employment Change Jun -363K -532K
Jul 01 10:00
a.m. Construction Spending May -0.5% 0.8%
Jul 01 10:00 ISM Index Jun 44.0 42.8