At the start of the year, the "experts" made a lot of predictions about the U.S. economy and what to expect in 2009.
And nobody predicted just how big the government's stimulus package would be.
Now, on June 30, with the year officially half-over, it's as good a time as any to remember that people are much better at interpreting the past than predicting the future. Economists can make educated guesses about the future, but they're guesses nonetheless.
It's like watching the Weather Channel. A meterologist can look at the data and say it's going to rain next week, but the forecast is never 100%. As Gary Keller, founder of Keller Williams Realty, said last fall, "real estate is local and saying that real estate in one place is the same as another is the same as saying the weather is the same everywhere."
So far this year, mortgage rates have been up and down, credit availability has been higher and lower, and home prices have varied immensely from neighborhood to neighborhood.
There's another 6 months until 2010 and there's no reason to expect the current volatility and uncertainty to change. Yesterday, a new client asked me what I thought would happen in our Renton housing market in the next year or so and my answer was "more of the same"...... still flat with rates up and down and another load of adjustable rate mortgages coming due this fall to increase our distressed housing supply."
The world is unpredictable and so is the U.S. economy. Therefore, consider making your personal finance decisions based on the information at hand today instead of on an educated guess about the future. Remember we only have 3 months to find the right home and get an offer written if you are using the "first time home buyer $8000 tax credit." Do not hesitate on this one.
After all, the weatherman's been wrong before.
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Gary McNinch Team Realtor
Renton WA Real Estate Keller Williams Realty Renton WA. Call us 206-696-2329, email
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many satisfied clients.
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Smart post, Gary. You're right. The real estate market may be horrible in one area of the nation, but doing just fine in another. Interest rates change daily. So, trying to "guess the market" is never a great thing to do. Bottom line, if you are in the market to purchase a home, do it based on the home itself and what you're willing to pay for it, not what the market conditions dictate.